2024 Arizona Senate election should not be confused with 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona.
See also: 2024 United States state legislative elections and 2024 Arizona elections.
| Election Name: | 2024 Arizona Senate election |
| Country: | Arizona |
| Type: | legislative |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2022 Arizona Senate election |
| Previous Year: | 2022 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2026 Arizona Senate election |
| Next Year: | 2026 |
| Seats For Election: | All 30 seats of the Arizona Senate |
| Majority Seats: | 16 |
| Image1: | File:Warren_Petersen by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg |
| Leader1: | Warren Petersen |
| Party1: | Arizona Republican Party |
| Leader Since1: | January 9, 2023 |
| Seats Before1: | 16 |
| Leader2: | Mitzi Epstein |
| Party2: | Arizona Democratic Party |
| Leader Since2: | March 2, 2023 |
| Seats Before2: | 14 |
| Seats Needed2: | 2 |
| President of the Senate | |
| Before Election: | Warren Petersen |
| Before Party: | Arizona Republican Party |
| Last Election1: | 16 seats, 53.8% |
| Last Election2: | 14 seats, 44.7% |
The 2024 Arizona Senate election will be held on November 5, 2024. Voters will elect members of the Arizona Senate in all 30 of the state's legislative districts to serve a two-year term. Primary elections are scheduled for July 30, 2024.[1]
Prior to the elections, the Republican Party held a narrow majority over the Democratic Party, controlling 16 seats to their 14 seats.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won 15 of Arizona's 30 Legislative Districts. Senate District 13, centered around the city of Chandler, which Biden won by 3% in 2020, is the only district Biden won in 2020 which is currently held by a Republican going into the 2024 Arizona Senate Election.
Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, Arizona was considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[2] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[3]
The Arizona Democratic Party has not won outright control of either state legislative chamber since the 1990s. The last time the party won control of both chambers was in the 1960s.[4] Since then, the state's trend towards Democrats and a consolidated effort on flipping control of the legislature has made this election seen as a tossup with both parties having an equal chance to win control of one or both chambers.
This election is expected to be one of the most competitive state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle. Most ratings suggest the race to be a toss-up or having Democrats as the slight favorite to win the chamber. Additionally, the state Democratic Party's fundraising advantage is also expected to play a major role in which party wins control of the chamber.[4] If Democrats win both chambers, it will be the first time that Democrats have had a trifecta in the state since 1966.[5]
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[6] | August 12, 2024 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[7] | (flip) | August 14, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | June 18, 2024 |
| District | Incumbent | Last Result[9] | CNalysis[10] August 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Shawnna Bolick | data-sort-value="51.84" | 51.84% R | (flip) | ||
| 4th | Christine Marsh | data-sort-value="-50.48" | 50.48% D | |||
| 9th | Eva Burch | data-sort-value="-52.47" | 52.47% D | |||
| 13th | J. D. Mesnard | data-sort-value="-51.73" | 51.73% R | |||
| 16th | T. J. Shope | data-sort-value="-55.71" | 55.71% R | |||
| 17th | Justine Wadsack | data-sort-value="-51.24" | 51.24% R | (flip) |
| Party | Candidates | Votes | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Before | After | +/– | |||||
| Republican | 16 | |||||||
| Democratic | 14 | |||||||
| Total | ||||||||
† - Incumbent not seeking re-election
| District | [15] ! | Incumbent | Party | Elected Senator | Outcome | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Bennett | TBD | |||||||
| Shawnna Bolick | TBD | |||||||
| John Kavanagh | TBD | |||||||
| Christine Marsh | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Lela Alston | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Theresa Hatathlie | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Wendy Rogers | TBD | |||||||
| Juan Mendez† | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Eva Burch | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| David Christian Farnsworth | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| Catherine Miranda | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Mitzi Epstein | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| J. D. Mesnard | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| Warren Petersen | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| Jake Hoffman | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| T. J. Shope | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| Justine Wadsack | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| Priya Sundareshan | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| David Gowan | TBD | |||||||
| Sally Ann Gonzales | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Rosanna Gabaldón | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Eva Diaz | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Brian Fernandez | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Anna Hernandez† | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Sine Kerr† | TBD | |||||||
| Flavio Bravo | Dem | TBD | ||||||
| Anthony Kern† | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| Frank Carroll | TBD | |||||||
| 29th | Janae Shamp | Rep | TBD | |||||
| Sonny Borrelli† | Rep | TBD | ||||||
| align=center | District 1 • District 2 • District 3 • District 4 • District 5 • District 6 • District 7 • District 8 • District 9 • District 10 • District 11 • District 12 • District 13 • District 14 • District 15 • District 16 • District 17 • District 18 • District 19 • District 20 • District 21 • District 22 • District 23 • District 24 • District 25 • District 26 • District 27 • District 28 • District 29 • District 30 |
See also: Arizona's 1st legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 2nd legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Green Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 3rd legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 4th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 5th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 6th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 7th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican primary|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic primary|-
See also: Arizona's 8th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 9th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 10th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 11th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 12th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 13th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 14th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 15th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 16th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 17th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 18th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 19th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 20th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 21st legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 22nd legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 23rd legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 24th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 25th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 26th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 27th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 28th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 29th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-
See also: Arizona's 30th legislative district. |-!colspan="5"|Republican Party Primary Results|-|-!colspan="5"|Democratic Party Primary Results|-