| Election Name: | Next Northern Ireland Assembly election |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election |
| Previous Year: | 2022 |
| Outgoing Members: | 7th Northern Ireland Assembly |
| Seats For Election: | All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly |
| Election Date: | No later than 6 May 2027 |
| Leader1: | Michelle O'Neill |
| Party1: | Sinn Féin |
| Last Election1: | 27 seats, 29.0% |
| Leader2: | Gavin Robinson |
| Party2: | Democratic Unionist Party |
| Last Election2: | 25 seats, 21.3% |
| Leader3: | Naomi Long |
| Party3: | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland |
| Last Election3: | 17 seats, 13.5% |
| Leader4: | Doug Beattie |
| Party4: | Ulster Unionist Party |
| Last Election4: | 9 seats, 11.2% |
| Leader5: | Colum Eastwood |
| Party5: | Social Democratic and Labour Party |
| Last Election5: | 8 seats, 9.1% |
| Leader6: | Jim Allister |
| Party6: | Traditional Unionist Voice |
| Last Election6: | 1 seat, 7.6% |
| Leader7: | Eamonn McCann |
| Party7: | People Before Profit |
| Last Election7: | 1 seat, 1.1% |
| First Minister and deputy First Minister | |
| Posttitle: | First Minister and deputy First Minister |
| Before Election: | Michelle O'Neill (SF) & Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) |
| Leader Since1: | 23 January 2017 |
| Leader Since2: | 29 March 2024 |
| Leader Since3: | 26 October 2016 |
| Leader Since4: | 27 May 2021 |
| Leader Since5: | 14 November 2015 |
| Leader Since6: | 7 December 2007 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Mid Ulster |
| Leaders Seat2: | MP (not an MLA) |
| Leaders Seat3: | Belfast East |
| Leaders Seat4: | Upper Bann |
| Leaders Seat5: | MP (not an MLA) |
| Leaders Seat6: | MP (not an MLA) |
A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.
After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[1] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[2] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[3] [4] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.[5] [6] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,[7] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[8]
This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson,[9] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Doug Beattie, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Colum Eastwood, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, in addition to People Before Profit (PBP), who have a collective leadership.
See main article: 2024 Northern Ireland Executive Formation. Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[10] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.
After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.[11] No government was formed by the deadline.[12] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline, the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022.[13] [14] [15] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.[16] [17] [18] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.[19] [20]
On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.[21] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[22] However, the DUP boycott continued.[23] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2024.[24] [25] [26]
On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.[27] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2" | Sample size | SF N | DUP U | APNI O | UUP U | SDLP N | TUV U | Green O | Aontú N | PBP O | Other | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | |||||||||
| 19 Aug 2024 | Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party | ||||||||||||||||
| 10-13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,021 | 29% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 8% | |||
| Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party | |||||||||||||||||
| 9–12 Feb 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 31% | 24% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 7% | |||
| Establishment of the new executive | |||||||||||||||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,046 | 31% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ||||
| 14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey | ARK | 1,200 | 19% | 15% | 22% | 10% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 3% | ||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 31% | 26% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% | ||||
| 2023 local elections | – | 30.9% | 23.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 7.6% | ||||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,557 | 29% | 25% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | ||||
| Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | N/A | 30.6% | 23.9% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 6.7% | |||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,499 | 31% | 25% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% | ||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 32% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | ||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 30% | 24% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% | ||||
| Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | 1,000 | 30.9% | 20.1% | 15.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 10.8% | ||||
| 2022 Assembly election | – | 29.0% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 7.7% | ||||||
Michelle O'Neill
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 43% | 37% | 20% | +6% | |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 41% | 37% | 22% | +4% | |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 41% | 40% | 19% | +4% | |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% | |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 40% | 42% | 18% | –2% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 24% | 66% | 10% | –42% | |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 65% | 8% | –38% | |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 25% | 63% | 12% | –38% | |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 29% | 65% | 6% | –36% | |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 27% | 64% | 9% | –37% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 38% | 39% | 23% | –1% | |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 40% | 38% | 22% | +2% | |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 37% | 38% | 25% | –1% | |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 45% | 37% | 18% | +8% | |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 34% | 38% | 28% | –4% | |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 38% | 33% | 29% | +5% | |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 28% | 42% | 30% | –14% | |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 37% | 32% | 31% | +5% | |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 0% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 26% | 43% | 31% | –17% | |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 32% | 40% | 28% | –8% | |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 33% | 38% | 29% | –5% | |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 31% | 39% | 30% | –8% | |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 39% | 27% | –5% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 23% | 63% | 14% | –40% | |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 61% | 12% | –34% | |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 27% | 57% | 16% | –30% | |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 27% | 59% | 14% | –32% | |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 31% | 54% | 15% | –23% |