2023 Nigerian presidential election in Lagos State explained

Election Name:2023 Nigerian presidential election in Lagos State
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2019 Nigerian general election
Previous Year:2019
Next Election:2027 Nigerian presidential election in Lagos State
Next Year:2027
Election Date:25 February 2023
Registered:7,060,195
Turnout:18.92%
Nominee1:
Running Mate1:
Party1:Labour Party (Nigeria)
Home State1:Anambra
Popular Vote1:582,454
Percentage1:45.81%
Party2:All Progressives Congress
Home State2:Lagos
Popular Vote2:572,606
Percentage2:45.04%
Party3:Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria)
Home State3:Adamawa
Popular Vote3:75,750
Percentage3:5.96%
President
Before Election:Muhammadu Buhari
Before Party:All Progressives Congress
After Election:Bola Tinubu
After Party:All Progressives Congress

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Lagos State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, were also held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Peter Obi—the nominee of the Labour Party—won the state by nearly 10,000 votes, a 0.77% margin, in a massive upset over former state Governor Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress.[2] [3] The other two major contenders, Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party), trailed with just 5.96% and 0.66%, respectively.

Background

Lagos State is a highly populated, diverse southwestern state that is a major financial centre along with being a key culture, education, and transportation hub. Although it faces overcrowding and chronic debilitating traffic, it has grown to one of the largest economies in Africa.

Politically, the 2019 elections were a continuation of the state APC's control as Muhammadu Buhari won the state by 12% and the party held all three senate seats while gaining in the House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC also retained its House of Assembly majority but the gubernatorial election was prefaced by the unprecedented defeat of incumbent Akinwunmi Ambode in the APC primary, marking the first time an incumbent Nigerian governor was defeated in a party primary. His primary challenger, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, went on to win the general election by a wide 54% margin.

Campaign

Although Lagos State is the home state of Tinubu, both Abubakar and Obi pushed to make the state competitive by targeting certain demographics and using the downballot candidates of their respective parties to lead the direct grassroots campaign.[4] As a state in the ethnic Yoruba homeland of Yorubaland, most of Lagos State's indigenous population are ethnic Yoruba but over a century of internal migration led to a significant minority of non-Yoruba non-indigenes. These differing ethnic dynamics greatly affected the presidential campaign in the state as Tinubu (an ethnic Yoruba himself) and his surrogates extensively employed ethnic Yoruba identity politics while campaigning across the South West;[5] on the other hand, the Lagos State bases of both Abubakar and Obi are in the non-indigene community—primarily those originally from the South East or South South—along with youths and educated professionals of all ethnicities.

Soon after the campaign period began in September 2022, reports from the LP and the PDP emerged over continuous attempts at suppression from APC-backed assailants along with bias from the state government and local police.[6] Notable incidents included an ambush on the state PDP campaign convoy in Badagry in October and an attack on Obi-aligned free medical services in Eti-Osa in November.[7] The reports led to fears of electoral violence and voter suppression, with analysts noting the regular reports of suppression and violence from the recent elections in the state (especially in areas with a non-Yoruba majority). As the campaign continued into December, the administration of state governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu (APC)—a longtime Tinubu ally—was accused of abusing the power of government for political purposes after reports found that the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority was selectively closing roads and diverting traffic for only APC campaign events.[8] As the election neared in January, suppression reports increased rapidly with both the LP and PDP accusing the state government and APC of destroying opposition banners and posters, attacking and intimidating of opposition supporters, and continued prevention of using billboards with the LP even claiming that the APC had infiltrated local INEC offices to discard the Permanent Voter Cards of non-indigenes.[9]

While both SBM Intelligence and ThisDay projected Tinubu to win Lagos State in December 2022, other pundits noted the potential competitiveness of the state with The Africa Report including it in a series on battleground states.[10] The article contended that Tinubu would benefit from the support of the state and federal government in the state, both from the ability to suppress opposition voters and recent infrastructure projects. For Abubakar, reporting focused on the divides within the PDP as the national split between the G5 and the rest of the party had trickled down to the Lagos State PDP as longtime state PDP stalwart Bode George sided with the G5 in its opposition to Abubakar. The split in the state PDP had its gubernatorial nominee—Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran—campaigning for Abubakar while George reportedly backed Obi and LP gubernatorial nominee Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour. The report claimed Obi's chances were based on his campaign's ability to successfully turnout non-indigenes and educated youths along with the vital assistance of Rhodes-Vivour.

In early February, Lagos State polling data and analysis from Stears Business was released with results showed a 4% lead for Obi, its model based on the polling statistics predicted Obi to win the state with 44% of the vote with Tinubu trailing at 32% while Abubakar stood at just 7%. The Stears data revealed a stark religious divide as Obi led by 11% among Christian respondents while Tinubu led by 28% among Muslim respondents; other questions revealed that the respondents had high confidence in INEC and were more excited about the election than previous ones.[11] In the following days other issues took precedence as allegations of bias against INEC Lagos State Resident Commissioner Olusegun Agbaje led to calls for his resignation while mass coordinated attacks on LP supporters before an Obi rally at Tafawa Balewa Square reinforced fears of further violence.[12] [13]

Polling

Polling organisation/clientFieldwork
date		Sample
size		OthersUndecidedUndisclosedNot voting
Tinubu
APC		Obi
LP		Kwankwaso
NNPP		Abubakar
PDP
BantuPageDecember 2022N/A28%31%1%5%–14%5%16%
Nextier
(Lagos crosstabs of national poll)		27 January 2023 N/A25.2%39.4%0.5%14.7%3.2%17.0%––
StearsJanuary 202350021%25%2%3%–45%–6%
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Lagos crosstabs of national poll)		22 January-6 February 2023N/A63%25%–10%–1%––

Projections

SourceProjectionAs of
[14] Tossup24 February 2023
Dataphyte[15]
Tinubu:44.61%11 February 2023
Obi:18.53%
Abubakar:21.21%
Others:15.66%
Enough is Enough-
Tinubu17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[16] Tinubu15 December 2022
ThisDay[17]
Tinubu:45%27 December 2022
Obi:25%
Kwankwaso:5%
Abubakar:20%
Others/Undecided:5%
Tinubu12-19 February 2023

Conduct

Pre-election

General election

Results

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial DistrictBola Tinubu
APC		Atiku Abubakar
PDP		Peter Obi
LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		OthersTotal valid votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Lagos Central Senatorial District117,580 47.44%14,543 5.87%108,633 43.83%1,497 0.60%5,614 2.26%247,867
Lagos East Senatorial District149,667 50.45%19,565 6.60%118,348 39.89%1,958 0.66%7,112 2.40%296,650
Lagos West Senatorial District289,288 41.68%40,713 5.87%340,446 49.05%4,859 0.70%18,796 2.71%694,102
Totals572,606 45.04%75,750 5.96%582,454 45.81%8,442 0.66%32,199 2.53%1,271,451

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal ConstituencyBola Tinubu
APC		Atiku Abubakar
PDP		Peter Obi
LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		OthersTotal valid votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Agege Federal Constituency29,568 58.10%4,498 8.84%13,270 26.08%1,513 2.97%2,043 4.01%50,892
Ajeromi/Ifelodun Federal Constituency25,938 37.82%4,680 6.82%35,663 51.99%436 0.64%1,873 2.73%68,590
Alimosho Federal Constituency62,909 42.54%8,201 5.55%71,327 48.24%701 0.47%4,732 3.20%147,870
Amuwo Odofin Federal Constituency13,318 18.24%2,383 3.26%55,547 76.09%330 0.45%1,429 1.96%73,007
Apapa Federal Constituency15,471 56.86%2,997 11.01%7,566 27.80%338 1.24%840 3.09%27,212
Badagry Federal Constituency31,903 63.03%6,024 11.9%10,956 21.64%153 0.30%1,582 3.13%50,618
Epe Federal Constituency19,867 67.98%5,221 17.87%3,497 11.97%76 0.26%561 1.92%29,222
Eti-Osa Federal Constituency15,317 24.46%3,369 5.38%42,388 67.69%381 0.61%1,162 1.86%62,617
Ibeju-Lekki Federal Constituency14,685 51.88%2,329 8.23%10,410 36.78%104 0.37%776 2.74%28,304
Ifako/Ijaiye Federal Constituency14,685 51.88%2,329 8.23%10,410 36.78%104 0.37%776 2.74%28,304
Ikeja Federal Constituency21,276 38.64%2,280 4.14%30,004 54.49%337 0.61%1,165 2.12%55,062
Ikorodu Federal Constituency50,353 58.05%4,508 5.20%28,951 33.37%400 0.46%2,535 2.92%86,747
Kosofe Federal Constituency36,883 40.81%4,058 4.49%46,554 51.51%902 1.00%1,977 2.19%90,374
Lagos Island I Federal Constituency
and Lagos Island II Federal Constituency		27,760 81.92%2,521 7.44%3,058 9.03%79 0.23%468 1.38%33,886
Lagos Mainland Federal Constituency20,030 46.43%3,005 6.96%18,698 43.34%257 0.60%1,153 2.67%43,143
Mushin I Federal Constituency
and Mushin II Federal Constituency		41,907 58.85%3,478 4.88%23,390 32.84%410 0.58%2,030 2.85%71,215
Ojo Federal Constituency20,603 31.61%3,701 5.68%38,859 59.63%462 0.71%1,543 2.37%65,168
Oshodi-Isolo I Federal Constituency
and Oshodi-Isolo II Federal Constituency		27,181 32.60%3,139 3.76%51,020 61.19%413 0.50%1,623 3.76%83,376
Somolu Federal Constituency27,879 44.96%3,449 5.56%28,936 46.67%476 0.77%1,263 2.04%62,003
Surulere I Federal Constituency
and Surulere II Federal Constituency		39,002 48.15%2,651 3.27%36,923 45.58%442 0.55%1,991 2.46%81,009
Totals572,606 45.04%75,750 5.96%582,454 45.81%8,442 0.66%32,199 2.53%1,271,451

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government areaBola Tinubu
APC		Atiku Abubakar
PDP		Peter Obi
LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		OthersTotal valid votesTurnout (%)
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Agege[18] 29,568 58.10%4,498 8.84%13,270 26.08%1,513 2.97%2,043 4.01%50,89214.71%
Ajeromi-Ifelodun[19] 25,938 37.82%4,680 6.82%35,663 51.99%436 0.64%1,873 2.73%68,59016.85%
Alimosho[20] [21] 62,909 42.54%8,201 5.55%71,327 48.24%701 0.47%4,732 3.20%147,87018.49%
Amuwo-Odofin[22] 13,318 18.24%2,383 3.26%55,547 76.09%330 0.45%1,429 1.96%73,00723.18%
Apapa[23] 15,471 56.86%2,997 11.01%7,566 27.80%338 1.24%840 3.09%27,21226.21%
Badagry[24] 31,903 63.03%6,024 11.9%10,956 21.64%153 0.30%1,582 3.13%50,61823.55%
Epe[25] 19,867 67.98%5,221 17.87%3,497 11.97%76 0.26%561 1.92%29,22219.04%
Eti-Osa[26] [27] 15,317 24.46%3,369 5.38%42,388 67.69%381 0.61%1,162 1.86%62,61717.81%
Ibeju-Lekki[28] 14,685 51.88%2,329 8.23%10,410 36.78%104 0.37%776 2.74%28,30425.59%
Ifako-Ijaiye[29] 14,685 51.88%2,329 8.23%10,410 36.78%104 0.37%776 2.74%28,30425.59%
Ikeja[30] 21,276 38.64%2,280 4.14%30,004 54.49%337 0.61%1,165 2.12%55,06217.83%
Ikorodu[31] [32] 50,353 58.05%4,508 5.20%28,951 33.37%400 0.46%2,535 2.92%86,74724.87%
Kosofe[33] [34] 36,883 40.81%4,058 4.49%46,554 51.51%902 1.00%1,977 2.19%90,37419.90%
Lagos Island[35] 27,760 81.92%2,521 7.44%3,058 9.03%79 0.23%468 1.38%33,88617.46%
Lagos Mainland[36] [37] 20,030 46.43%3,005 6.96%18,698 43.34%257 0.60%1,153 2.67%43,14318.09%
Mushin[38] 41,907 58.85%3,478 4.88%23,390 32.84%410 0.58%2,030 2.85%71,21518.20%
Ojo[39] [40] 20,603 31.61%3,701 5.68%38,859 59.63%462 0.71%1,543 2.37%65,16817.07%
Oshodi-Isolo[41] 27,181 32.60%3,139 3.76%51,020 61.19%413 0.50%1,623 3.76%83,37618.96%
Somolu[42] [43] 27,879 44.96%3,449 5.56%28,936 46.67%476 0.77%1,263 2.04%62,00320.29%
Surulere[44] [45] 39,002 48.15%2,651 3.27%36,923 45.58%442 0.55%1,991 2.46%81,00922.59%
Totals572,606 45.04%75,750 5.96%582,454 45.81%8,442 0.66%32,199 2.53%1,271,45118.92%

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Jimoh . Abbas . INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections . . 26 February 2022 . 26 February 2022.
  2. Web site: Adelagun . Oluwakemi . Adebowale-Tambe . Nike . UPDATED: #NigeriaDecides2023: Peter Obi defeats Tinubu, wins presidential election in Lagos . . 27 February 2023 . 8 March 2023.
  3. Web site: Busari . Stephanie . Nigerian election results trickle in as Peter Obi lands surprise win in Lagos . . 27 February 2023 . 8 March 2023.
  4. Web site: Akinkuotu . Eniola . Nigeria 2023: Obi and Atiku push to turn Lagos into swing state . . 25 January 2023 . 26 January 2023.
  5. Web site: Akinkuotu . Eniola . Nigeria: Obi, Tinubu, Atiku… Will identity politics trigger electoral violence in 2023? . . 16 November 2022 . 26 January 2023.
  6. Web site: Ezeamalu . Ben . Nigeria 2023: In Lagos, history of voter intimidation, harassment worry opposition parties . . 16 December 2022 . 26 January 2023.
  7. Web site: Akoni . Olasunkanmi . 2023 campaign: Miscreants attack Lagos PDP guber candidate, Jandor, deputy, Akindele in Badagry . . 26 January 2023.
  8. Web site: Aliyu . Abdullateef . How Lagos Uses Traffic To Disrupt Opposition Campaigns . . 18 December 2022 . 19 December 2022.
  9. Web site: Omobola . Dickson . BATTLE FOR LAGOS: APC, opposition parties fight dirty . . 25 January 2023.
  10. Web site: Akinkuotu . Eniola . Nigeria 2023: Obi and Atiku push to turn Lagos into swing state . . 25 January 2023 . 26 January 2023.
  11. Web site: MacEbong . Joachim . Why Tinubu could lose to Peter Obi in Lagos . . 8 February 2023 . 11 February 2023.
  12. Web site: Nwachukwu . John Owen . INEC told to remove Lagos REC immediately over alleged anti Igbo comments . . 8 February 2023 . 11 February 2023.
  13. Web site: Dzirutwe . MacDonald . Opposition supporters attacked in Nigeria ahead of rally . . 11 February 2023.
  14. Web site: Elimian . Adrian . Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings . . 24 February 2023 . 25 February 2023.
  15. Web site: President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions . . 11 February 2023 . . 11 February 2023.
  16. Web site: Projection: 2023 presidential elections . SBM Intelligence . 27 December 2022 . 15 December 2022.
  17. Web site: THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely . . 27 December 2022 . 27 December 2022.
  18. . channelstv . 1629942838761861127 . LGA: Agege . https://mobile.twitter.com/channelstv/status/1629942838761861127.
  19. . thecableng . 1630035093669523456 . OBI INCHES CLOSER TO TINUBU PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Ajeromi-Ifelodun LGA, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630035093669523456.
  20. . thecableng . 1630140734169837568 . OBI WINS ALIMOSHO -- HIS 8TH LGA IN LAGOS . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630140734169837568.
  21. 1630140736774582272 . thecableng . Registered voters: 855, 724 Accredited voters: 158, 209 Total Valid votes: 147, 870 Rejected votes: 10 368 Total votes cast: 158,209 . .
  22. . thecableng . 1629994112056262659 . OBI TAKES FOURTH LGA IN LAGOS PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Amuwo Odofin LGA, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629994112056262659.
  23. . thecableng . 1630031488891727874 . PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Apapa LGA, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630031488891727874.
  24. . channelstv . 1629939313793282049 . LGA: Badagry . https://mobile.twitter.com/channelstv/status/1629939313793282049.
  25. . thecableng . 1629915049971048449 . LAGOS PRESIDENTIAL RESULT LGA: Epe . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629915049971048449.
  26. . thecableng . 1630029702659227651 . OBI STILL IN THE CHASE PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Eti Osa LGA, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630029702659227651.
  27. Noah Banjo . 4EyedLiwa_ . 1629982812857049089 . Eti-Osa LG - presidential . https://twitter.com/4EyedLiwa_/status/1629982812857049089.
  28. . channelstv . 1629938947068510208 . LGA: Ibeju Lekki . https://mobile.twitter.com/channelstv/status/1629938947068510208.
  29. . thecableng . 1630026108186886154 . PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Ifako Ijaye LGA, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630026108186886154.
  30. Web site: Adelagun . Oluwakemi . #NigeriaDecides2023: Tinubu loses to Obi in own local govt . . 26 February 2023 . 27 February 2023.
  31. . thecableng . 1629931899379408896 . PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Ikorodu LGA, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629931899379408896.
  32. . PlusTVAfrica . 1629935296254038017 . Ikorodu (19 Wards) . https://mobile.twitter.com/PlusTVAfrica/status/1629935296254038017.
  33. . thecableng . 1629991824029896707 . LP WINS KOSOFE LGA PRESIDENTIAL RESULT . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629991824029896707.
  34. Noah Banjo . 4EyedLiwa_ . 1629985129455054848 . Kosofe LG - presidential . https://twitter.com/4EyedLiwa_/status/1629985129455054848.
  35. . thecableng . 1629915989285453826 . LAGOS PRESIDENTIAL RESULT LGA: Lagos Island . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629915989285453826.
  36. . thecableng . 1629947478064652292 . PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Lagos Mainland LGA (corrected version) . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629947478064652292.
  37. . thecableng . 1629947544825479169 . Remarks: The LP party rejected the result, adding that "thugs attacked 9 PUs" in the area. . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629947544825479169.
  38. . thecableng . 1630136931676827648 . PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULT Mushin LGA, Lagos (updated version) . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630136931676827648.
  39. . thecableng . 1630145012003471360 . PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULT Peter Obi has won his 9th LGA in Lagos, while Bola Tinubu won 11. Based on the overall votes tally, Obi is in the lead. He is on course to be announced as the winner of the state . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630145012003471360.
  40. . thecableng . 1630145014226472960 . Registered voters: 401, 798 . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630145014226472960.
  41. . thecableng . 1630036392188301313 . OBI BAGS 7TH LGA IN LAGOS PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Oshodi/Isolo LGA, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630036392188301313.
  42. . thecableng . 1629979676998352896 . LP WINS SHOMOLU LGA, LAGOS PRESIDENTIAL RESULT . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1629979676998352896.
  43. . channelstv . 1629977176081612800 . LGA: Somolu . https://mobile.twitter.com/channelstv/status/1629977176081612800.
  44. . thecableng . 1630029343484174341 . TINUBU EXTENDS LEAD, WINS 10TH LGA IN LAGOS PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Surulere, Lagos . https://mobile.twitter.com/thecableng/status/1630029343484174341.
  45. Noah Banjo . 4EyedLiwa_ . 1630023630783410176 . Surulere LGA - presidential . https://twitter.com/4EyedLiwa_/status/1630023630783410176.

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