| Election Name: | 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Mississippi |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2019 |
| Next Election: | 2027 Mississippi gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2027 |
| Election Date: | November 7, 2023 |
| Turnout: | 42.6% |
| Image1: | File:Gov. Tate Reeves Signs House Bill 1486 (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Tate Reeves |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 418,233 |
| Percentage1: | 50.94% |
| Nominee2: | Brandon Presley |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 391,614 |
| Percentage2: | 47.70% |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Tate Reeves |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Tate Reeves |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.[1]
Primary elections were held on August 8.[2] Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.
The race was considered to be competitive, with Reeves moderately favored. Reeves won re-election, but this was the best performance for a Democrat, the worst for a Republican, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican,[3] and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.
This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999.
This structure was referred to as Mississippi’s version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well.[4] Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held.[5]
A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state levels, with both of its U.S. senators, all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide executive officers currently belonging to the Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.
Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state.[6] [7]
Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised.[8]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Hardigree | Tate Reeves | John Witcher | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | Jun 4–7, 2023 | 646 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 0% | 59% | 0% | 8% | 33% | ||
| American Strategies | May 22–24, 2023 | 646 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 2% | 70% | 4% | - | 24% |
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[32] | October 23, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[33] | September 1, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | October 16, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily[35] | November 7, 2023 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Brandon Presley (D) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 19–20, 2023 | 601 (V) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | – | 10% | ||
| Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon | September 27 – October 2, 2023 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% | ||
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | August 20–28, 2023 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 6% | ||
| Impact Research (D) | August 6–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% | ||
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | July 7, 2023 | – | – | 49% | 32% | – | 19% | ||
| Impact Research (D) | April 24–27, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% | ||
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | April 16–20, 2023 | 783 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 38% | 7% | 6% | ||
| Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon | March 6–10, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% | ||
| Mississippi Today/Tulchin Research | January 21–25, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | – | 10% | ||
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 39% | 2% | 14% | ||
| Impact Research (D) | December 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Generic Opponent | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | April 16–20, 2023 | 783 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 60% | 4% | ||
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 33% | 57% | 10% |