| Election Name: | 2023 Madeiran regional election |
| Country: | Madeira |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2019 Madeiran regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2019 |
| Election Date: | 24 September 2023 |
| Next Election: | 2024 Madeiran regional election |
| Next Year: | 2024 |
| Seats For Election: | 47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira |
| Majority Seats: | 24 |
| Turnout: | 53.3% 2.2 pp |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Leader1: | Miguel Albuquerque |
| Color1: | 00aaaa |
| Party1: | PSD |
| Alliance1: | We Are Madeira |
| Leader Since1: | 10 January 2015 |
| Last Election1: | 24 seats, 45.2% |
| Seats1: | 23 |
| Seat Change1: | 1 |
| Popular Vote1: | 58,394 |
| Percentage1: | 43.1% |
| Swing1: | 2.1 pp |
| Leader2: | Sérgio Gonçalves |
| Party2: | Socialist Party (Portugal) |
| Leader Since2: | 13 March 2022 |
| Last Election2: | 19 seats, 35.8% |
| Seats2: | 11 |
| Seat Change2: | 8 |
| Popular Vote2: | 28,840 |
| Percentage2: | 21.3% |
| Swing2: | 14.5 pp |
| Image3: | JPP |
| Leader3: | Élvio Sousa |
| Party3: | JPP |
| Leader Since3: | 27 January 2015 |
| Last Election3: | 3 seats, 5.5% |
| Seats3: | 5 |
| Seat Change3: | 2 |
| Popular Vote3: | 14,933 |
| Percentage3: | 11.0% |
| Colour4: | 202056 |
| Leader4: | Miguel Castro |
| Party4: | CH |
| Leader Since4: | 2022 |
| Last Election4: | 0 seats, 0.4% |
| Seats4: | 4 |
| Seat Change4: | 4 |
| Popular Vote4: | 12,029 |
| Percentage4: | 8.9% |
| Colour5: | FF0000 |
| Leader5: | Edgar Silva |
| Party5: | PCP |
| Alliance5: | CDU |
| Leader Since5: | 1996 |
| Last Election5: | 1 seats, 1.8% |
| Seats5: | 1 |
| Seat Change5: | 0 |
| Popular Vote5: | 3,677 |
| Percentage5: | 2.7% |
| Image6: | |
| Colour6: | 00ADEF |
| Leader6: | Nuno Morna |
| Party6: | IL |
| Leader Since6: | 2019 |
| Last Election6: | 0 seats, 0.5% |
| Seats6: | 1 |
| Seat Change6: | 1 |
| Popular Vote6: | 3,555 |
| Percentage6: | 2.6% |
| Image7: | |
| Colour7: | 008080 |
| Leader7: | Mónica Freitas |
| Party7: | PAN |
| Leader Since7: | 11 August 2023 |
| Last Election7: | 0 seats, 1.5% |
| Seats7: | 1 |
| Seat Change7: | 1 |
| Popular Vote7: | 3,046 |
| Percentage7: | 2.2% |
| Image8: | |
| Leader8: | Roberto Almada |
| Party8: | Left Bloc (Portugal) |
| Leader Since8: | 18 March 2023 |
| Last Election8: | 0 seats, 1.7% |
| Seats8: | 1 |
| Seat Change8: | 1 |
| Popular Vote8: | 3,035 |
| Percentage8: | 2.2% |
| Swing8: | 0.5 pp |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Miguel Albuquerque |
| Before Party: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
| After Election: | Miguel Albuquerque |
| After Party: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
Regional elections were held in Madeira on 24 September 2023,[1] to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.
The incumbent president, Miguel Albuquerque from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the CDS – People's Party, and defended the dominance of the Social Democratic Party in the islands since 1976. The PSD and CDS–PP contested the election in a joint coalition.[2]
The "We are Madeira" coalition, between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), won the election with 43 percent of the votes but, despite polling predictions, failed to hold on to their majority and won 23 seats, one short of a majority. On election night, Miguel Albuquerque announced he would present a "parliamentary majority solution" very shortly, but didn't give much details nor said with whom, although he refused any talks with CHEGA.[3]
The Socialist Party (PS) suffered a big fall in support gathering just 21 percent of the votes and 11 seats, compared with their best results ever in 2019, almost 36 percent and 19 seats. Unlike 2019, it failed to win a single parish and municipality.[4] Together for the People (JPP) had their best showing ever, winning 11 percent of the votes and 5 seats, two more compared with 2019.[5]
Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) was able to hold on to their sole seat and even increased their share of vote to 2.7 percent, compared with the 1.8 percent in 2019.[6] CHEGA (CH), which faced legal disputes regarding their presence on the ballot due to annulments of internal party decisions and that were settled with a Constitutional Court ruling that confirmed that the party could be on the ballot,[7] had a very strong showing, winning almost 9 percent of the votes and electing 4 members to the regional parliament, a 8.5 percent growth compared with 2019.[8]
The Liberal Initiative (IL) won 2.6 percent of the votes and elected one seat. The regional leader, Nuno Morna said he was open to talks with the PSD/CDS–PP coalition.[9] Likewise, People-Animals-Nature (PAN), which won 2.2 percent of the votes and returned after 8 years to the regional parliament, was also open to supporting a PSD/CDS–PP government.[10] Left Bloc (BE) polled 2.2 percent and also returned to the Madeira Parliament after losing their seat in 2019.
Two days after the election, PAN and the PSD/CDS–PP signed a deal that ensured a majority in the regional Parliament.[11] PSD/CDS–PP accepted a series of PAN demands and Miguel Albuquerque said he was "very pleased" by the outcome of the deal.[12] Also, Albuquerque didn't rule out occasional agreements with the Liberal Initiative.[13]
The turnout in these elections decreased compared to the previous one, with 53.3 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the 55.5 percent in the 2019 elections.
In the 2019 regional election, the PSD was again the most voted party, 39 percent, but failed for the first time to win an absolute majority.[14] The party was followed closely by the PS which polled at almost 36 percent. After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government which guaranteed an absolute majority in the regional parliament.[15]
In the aftermath of the 2021 local elections, in which the PS lost a lot of ground, especially the loss of Funchal to a PSD/CDS–PP coalition,[16] the then PS leader Paulo Cafôfo resigned from the leadership and refused to run again.[17] In the following PS leadership election, in February 2022, Sérgio Gonçalves was elected as the new leader with 98.6 percent of the votes.[18]
The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[19]
The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.
| Name | Ideology | Leader | 2019 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Seats | ||||||
| PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party | Liberal conservatism | Miguel Albuquerque | 39.4% | |||
| PS | Socialist Party | Social democracy | Sérgio Gonçalves | 35.8% | |||
| CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party | Conservatism | Rui Barreto | 5.8% | |||
| JPP | Together for the People | Centrism | Élvio Sousa | 5.5% | |||
| PCP | Portuguese Communist Party | Communism | Edgar Silva | 1.8% | |||
13 parties/coalitions were on the ballot for the 2023 Madeira regional election. The parties/coalitions that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot)[20]
| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation | Refs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD/CDS–PP | « Somos Madeira » | "We are Madeira" | [30] | ||
| PS | « O voto que muda a Madeira » | "The vote that changes Madeira" | [31] | ||
| JPP | « Em frente. Sem medo! » | "Forward. Without fear!" | [32] | ||
| CDU | « Viver melhor na nossa terra! » | "Live better in our land!" | [33] | ||
| BE | « O Bloco faz falta » | "The Bloc is needed" | [34] | ||
| PAN | « O voto que faz a diferença » | "The vote that makes the difference" | [35] | ||
| IL | « O liberalismo funciona. E faz falta à Madeira » | "Liberalism works. And Madeira needs it" | [36] | ||
| CH | « Vamos acabar com a corrupção na Madeira! » | "Let's end corruption in Madeira!" | [37] | ||
| Date | Organisers | Moderator | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD/CDS | PS | JPP | CDU | BE | PAN | RIR | PTP | IL | CH | ADN | MPT | L | |||||
| 24 Aug | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | [38] | ||||||
| 31 Aug | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | [39] | |||||
| 7 Sep | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | [40] | |||||
Polls that showed their results without distributing those respondents who were undecided or said they would abstain from voting, were re-calculated by removing those numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 regional election | 24 Sep 2023 | 53.3 | 43.1 | 21.3 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 21.8 | |||||
| CESOP–UCP | 24 Sep 2023 | 8,021 | 52–56 | 44–48 | 18–21 | 9–12 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 2–4 | 8–10 | 26.5 | |||||
| CESOP–UCP | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 16–17 Sep 2023 | 1,613 | ? | 50.0 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 | |||
| Intercampus | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 29 Aug–13 Sep 2023 | 603 | ? | 49.0 | 22.8 | 9.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 26.2 | |||
| Aximage | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 28 Aug–10 Sep 2023 | 602 | ? | 58.4 | 15.5 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 42.9 | |||
| Metris | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 21–26 Aug 2023 | 402 | ? | 52.5 | 21.5 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 31.0 | |||
| Aximage | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 10–23 Jul 2023 | 611 | ? | 57.2 | 15.6 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 41.6 | |||
| Aximage | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 23 May–5 Jun 2023 | 604 | ? | 54.0 | 16.8 | 11.6 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 37.2 | |||
| Intercampus | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 15–24 May 2023 | 404 | ? | 44.9 | 28.5 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 16.4 | |||
| Aximage | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 14–24 Feb 2023 | 603 | ? | 55.0 | 16.8 | 13.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 38.2 | |||
| Intercampus | 20–30 Jan 2023 | 400 | ? | 45.2 | 29.5 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 15.7 | ||||
| 44.7 | 1.7 | 30.2 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 14.5 | |||||||
| Aximage | 14–26 Oct 2022 | 601 | 58.4 | 54.0 | 26.6 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 27.4 | ||||
| 51.5 | 5.2 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 26.4 | |||||||
| Aximage | 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 | 414 | 65.9 | 50.1 | 18.6 | 10.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 31.5 | ||||
| 52.6 | 1.9 | 17.3 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 8.6 | 35.3 | |||||||
| 2022 legislative elections | data-sort-value="2022-01-30" | 30 Jan 2022 | 49.6 | 39.8 | 31.5 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 8.3 | ||||
| 2021 local elections | data-sort-value="2021-09-26" | 26 Sep 2021 | 54.6 | 43.0 | 3.4 | 29.5 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 8.4 | 13.5 | ||||
| Aximage | data-sort-value="2017-03-16" | 5–8 Jun 2020 | 415 | ? | 42.2 | 2.3 | 27.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 23.8 | 14.7 | ||||||
| 2019 legislative election | data-sort-value="2019-10-06" | 6 Oct 2019 | 50.3 | 37.2 | 6.1 | 33.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 3.8 | |||
| 2019 regional election | data-sort-value="2015-03-29" | 22 Sep 2019 | 55.5 | 39.4 | 5.8 | 35.8 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 7.6 | 3.6 | |||
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | JPP | Lead | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aximage | 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 | 414 | 65.9 | 48.1 | 18.6 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 9.2 | 29.5 | |
| 48.3 | 2.4 | 20.6 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 27.7 | ||||
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.
| Turnout | Time | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | ||||||||
| 2019 | 2023 | ± | 2019 | 2023 | ± | 2019 | 2023 | ± | ||
| Total | 20.97% | 20.98% | 0.01 pp | 40.79% | 39.90% | 0.89 pp | 55.51% | 53.35% | 2.16 pp | |
| Sources[41] [42] | ||||||||||
|-| colspan=11| |-! rowspan="2" colspan=2 style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left|Parties! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Votes! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|%! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±pp swing! colspan="5" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align="center"|MPs! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:right;" |MPs %/
votes %|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"|2019! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"| 2023! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|%! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor= align="center" | |align=left|We are Madeira ||58,394||43.11||2.1||24||23||1||48.94||2.1||1.14|-| ||28,840||21.29||14.5||19||11||8||23.40||17.0||1.10|-| ||14,933||11.03||5.6||3||5||2||10.63||4.2||0.96|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#202056 align="center" | |align=left|CHEGA||12,029||8.88||8.5||0||4||4||8.51||8.5||0.96|-| ||3,677||2.71||0.9||1||1||0||2.13||0.0||0.79|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#00ADEF align="center" | |align=left|Liberal Initiative||3,555||2.62||2.1||0||1||1||2.13||2.1||0.81|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=teal align="center" | |align=left|People-Animals-Nature||3,046||2.25||0.8||0||1||1||2.13||2.1||0.95|-| ||3,035||2.24||0.5||0||1||1||2.13||2.1||0.95|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#CC0033 align="center" | |align=left|Labour||1,369||1.01||0.0||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-|||858||0.63||||||0||||0.00||||0.0|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=LightSeaGreen align="center" | |align=left|React, Include, Recycle||727||0.54||0.7||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-| ||696||0.51||0.3||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-| style="width: 10px" bgcolor="#274E82" align="center" || align="left" |National Democratic Alternative||617||0.46||0.0||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-|colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total valid|width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|131,776|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|97.29|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.4|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|—|-|colspan=2|Blank ballots||842||0.62||0.1||colspan=6 rowspan=4||-|colspan=2|Invalid ballots||2,828||2.09||0.3|-|colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total|width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|135,446|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"||-|colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout||253,877||53.35||2.2|-| colspan=11 align=left | Sources:[43] |}
With the loss of their majority, PSD and CDS–PP reached a deal with People-Animals-Nature (PAN) in order to ensure a parliamentary majority.[11] On 17 November 2023, the regional parliament approved Albuquerque's third government:
| 2023 Motion of confidence Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) | ||||
| Ballot → | 17 November 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | Simple | |||
| Abstentions | ||||
| Absentees | ||||
| Sources[44] | ||||
On 24 January 2024, the Judiciary Police and the Public Prosecutor's office conducted a series of searches all across Madeira, from government offices to private companies, regarding corruption and abuse of power accusations surrounding real estate businesses in the region.[45] The mayor of Funchal, Pedro Calado, and two businessmen were arrested by the police, while Miguel Albuquerque was named as a formal suspect.[46] At first, Albuquerque refused to resign, but due to PAN's threat of withdrawing their support from the PSD/CDS-PP minority government, Miguel Abuquerque retracted his earlier position and resigned from office.[47] But, despite this resignation, divisions inside the PSD resulted in no solution for Albuquerque's succession.[48] Afterwards, the Representative of the Republic in Madeira, Ireneu Barreto, started hearing parties represented in the regional Parliament to decide the path to follow.[49]
After hearing parties, Ireneu Barreto, on 17 February, announced that he would keep Albuquerque in office, in a caretaker capacity, until the President of Portugal decides whether there should be early elections or a new government under the current parliament. Because electoral rules determine that Parliaments can only be dissolved six months after the election of the previous one, the regional Parliament could only be dissolved from 24 March 2024 onwards.[50] The President of Portugal decided, on 27 March 2024, to dissolve the regional parliament and call early elections for 26 May.[51]