| Election Name: | 2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election |
| Country: | Castilla–La Mancha |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2019 |
| Next Election: | Next Castilian-Manchegan regional election |
| Next Year: | Next |
| Seats For Election: | All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha |
| Majority Seats: | 17 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 1,591,262 1.2% |
| Turnout: | 1,091,741 (69.6%) 0.2 pp |
| Election Date: | 28 May 2023 |
| Leader1: | Emiliano García-Page |
| Party1: | Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha |
| Leader Since1: | 26 February 2012 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Toledo |
| Last Election1: | 19 seats, 44.1% |
| Seats1: | 17 |
| Seat Change1: | 2 |
| Popular Vote1: | 490,288 |
| Percentage1: | 45.0% |
| Swing1: | 0.9 pp |
| Leader2: | Francisco Núñez |
| Party2: | People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha |
| Leader Since2: | 7 October 2018 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Toledo |
| Last Election2: | 10 seats, 28.5% |
| Seats2: | 12 |
| Seat Change2: | 2 |
| Popular Vote2: | 361,155 |
| Percentage2: | 33.7% |
| Swing2: | 5.2 pp |
| Leader3: | David Moreno |
| Party3: | Vox |
| Leader Since3: | 26 December 2022 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Toledo |
| Last Election3: | 0 seats, 7.0% |
| Seats3: | 4 |
| Seat Change3: | 4 |
| Popular Vote3: | 137,765 |
| Percentage3: | 12.8% |
| Swing3: | 5.8 pp |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Emiliano García-Page |
| Before Party: | Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha |
| After Election: | Emiliano García-Page |
| After Party: | Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha |
The 2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish; Castilian: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]
The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1] [4]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[5]
| Seats | Constituencies | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Toledo | |
| 7 | Albacete, Ciudad Real | |
| 5 | Cuenca, Guadalajara |
The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[6]
The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1] [4] [7]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1]
The election to the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (DOCM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 22 June.[5]
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[8]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | |||||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 19 | 19 | |||
| People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 10 | 10 | |||
| Citizens's Parliamentary Group | CS | 4 | 4 | |||
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4] [7]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||||||
| PSOE | Emiliano García-Page | Social democracy | 44.10% | [10] | ||||||
| PP | Francisco Núñez | Conservatism Christian democracy | 28.53% | [11] | ||||||
| CS | Carmen Picazo | Liberalism | 11.38% | [12] | ||||||
| Vox | David Moreno | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 7.02% | [13] | ||||||
| Unidas Podemos CLM | José Luis García Gascón | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | 6.92% | [14] [15] | ||||||
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | 69.6 | 45.0 | 33.7 | 1.0 | 12.8 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 11.3 | ||
| GAD3/RTVE–FORTA[18] | 12–27 May 2023 | 4,000 | ? | 44.2 | 34.0 | 1.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | – | 10.2 | |
| PSOE[19] | 22 May 2023 | ? | ? | 47.0– 48.0 | 29.0– 30.0 | – | 10.0– 11.0 | – | – | 18.0 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[20] | 22 May 2023 | ? | ? | 40.4 | 37.3 | – | 10.9 | – | – | 3.1 | |
| KeyData/Público[21] | 18 May 2023 | ? | 71.2 | 41.0 | 35.7 | 2.4 | 11.1 | 6.1 | – | 5.3 | |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[22] | 15–18 May 2023 | 1,200 | ? | 42.3 | 34.8 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 6.6 | – | 7.5 | |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[23] [24] | 11–17 May 2023 | 600 | ? | 40.2 | 37.2 | 2.6 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 3.0 | |
| Data10/OKDiario[25] | 15–16 May 2023 | 1,500 | ? | 40.5 | 38.6 | 1.9 | 10.7 | 5.7 | – | 1.9 | |
| Target Point/El Debate[26] | 9–15 May 2023 | 800 | ? | 42.2 | 36.4 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 6.3 | – | 5.8 | |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[27] | 8–14 May 2023 | ? | ? | 40.4 | 37.0 | 2.4 | 11.4 | 5.9 | – | 3.4 | |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[28] [29] | 4–10 May 2023 | 600 | ? | 40.1 | 37.3 | 2.6 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 | |
| IMOP/El Confidencial[30] | 4–6 May 2023 | 1,295 | 66 | 46.5 | 31.6 | 2.3 | 12.1 | 4.8 | – | 14.9 | |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[31] [32] | 26 Apr–3 May 2023 | 600 | ? | 39.7 | 37.0 | 2.6 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | |
| CIS[33] [34] | 10–26 Apr 2023 | 971 | ? | 47.2 | 28.1 | 2.7 | 11.4 | 6.9 | – | 19.1 | |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[35] [36] | 19–25 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 39.4 | ? | ? | 11.0 | 6.5 | ? | ? | |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[37] [38] | 12–18 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 38.9 | 36.5 | 2.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[39] | 17 Apr 2023 | ? | ? | 40.6 | 36.6 | 2.8 | 10.8 | 6.9 | – | 4.0 | |
| Data10/OKDiario[40] | 10–13 Apr 2023 | 1,500 | ? | 38.6 | 38.8 | 2.5 | 10.2 | 6.4 | – | 0.2 | |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[41] [42] | 5–11 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 38.1 | 36.4 | 2.2 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[43] | 3–7 Apr 2023 | 1,200 | ? | 38.8 | 37.2 | 2.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | – | 1.6 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[44] | 3–5 Apr 2023 | 500 | ? | 45.1 | 31.0 | 2.7 | 9.8 | 5.4 | – | 14.1 | |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural[45] [46] | 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 37.5 | 36.4 | 2.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[47] | 17–24 Mar 2023 | ? | ? | 39.3 | 37.6 | – | 11.0 | – | – | 1.7 | |
| KeyData/Público[48] | 15 Mar 2023 | ? | 71.3 | 39.5 | 36.7 | 2.9 | 10.5 | 6.5 | – | 2.8 | |
| Data10/OKDiario[49] | 14–16 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | ? | 40.8 | 38.3 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 6.5 | – | 2.5 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[50] | 9–27 Jan 2023 | 4,723 | ? | 44.2 | 32.5 | 2.6 | 10.6 | 5.6 | – | 11.7 | |
| PP[51] | 21 Jan 2023 | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | – | – | ? | |
| GAD3/PP[52] | 16 Jan 2023 | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | – | – | ? | |
| CIS[53] [54] | 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 449 | ? | 44.4 | 22.5 | 2.0 | 13.4 | 9.6 | – | 21.9 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[55] | 3–25 Nov 2022 | 4,350 | ? | 46.0 | 30.8 | 3.7 | 11.9 | 5.9 | – | 15.2 | |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[56] [57] | 18–24 Nov 2022 | 1,100 | ? | 39.9 | 34.2 | 3.5 | 10.4 | 6.4 | – | 5.7 | |
| PP[58] | 5 Oct 2022 | ? | 66.9 | 39.2 | 38.9 | 1.5 | 10.8 | 4.7 | – | 0.3 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[59] | 16–20 May 2022 | 800 | ? | 44.9 | 31.9 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | – | 13.0 | |
| NC Report/PP[60] [61] | 2–18 May 2022 | 2,400 | 66.3 | 39.5 | 37.0 | 3.2 | 11.1 | 6.2 | – | 2.5 | |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[62] | 28 Feb–13 Apr 2022 | 324 | ? | 38.6 | 35.3 | 2.9 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 3.3 | |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[63] | 1 Dec–14 Jan 2022 | 191 | ? | 39.7 | 35.7 | 2.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 4.0 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[64] | 3–17 Dec 2021 | 4,723 | ? | 45.5 | 30.9 | 3.6 | 12.5 | 5.5 | – | 14.6 | |
| GAD3/PSOE[65] [66] | 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 | 1,202 | ? | 42.9 | 30.7 | 4.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | – | 12.2 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[67] | 4–15 Oct 2021 | 2,500 | ? | 42.5 | 30.2 | 5.1 | 13.2 | 5.9 | – | 12.3 | |
| NC Report/La Tribuna[68] | 14 Oct 2021 | 1,450 | 64.6 | 38.9 | 38.1 | 3.4 | 11.9 | 5.3 | – | 0.8 | |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[69] | 13 Jul–21 Aug 2021 | 223 | ? | 39.8 | 36.7 | – | 11.0 | 6.2 | – | 3.1 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[70] | 24–28 May 2021 | 1,200 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[71] [72] | 19–25 May 2021 | 1,450 | ? | 38.6 | 38.3 | 3.4 | 12.0 | 5.1 | – | 0.3 | |
| PSOE[73] | 19 Dec 2020 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 33.0 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | – | 9.0 | |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[74] | 15 Jul 2020 | 850 | ? | 38.6 | 33.5 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 8.1 | – | 5.1 | |
| PSOE[75] [76] | 29 Jun–10 Jul 2020 | 2,500 | ? | 42.3 | 31.5 | 7.6 | ? | 6.4 | – | 10.8 | |
| SyM Consulting[77] [78] | 20–22 May 2020 | 3,209 | 68.3 | 37.5 | 29.6 | 5.9 | 16.5 | 8.4 | – | 7.9 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[79] | 17–21 May 2020 | 1,858 | ? | 40.3 | 33.7 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 6.4 | – | 6.6 | |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[80] [81] | 1 Apr–15 May 2020 | ? | ? | 40.4 | 36.2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | – | 4.2 | |
| Numeral 8/La Tribuna[82] | 20–24 Jan 2020 | 1,050 | ? | 43.4 | 29.9 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 7.6 | – | 13.5 | |
| PSOE[83] [84] | 3 Dec 2019 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | 70.6 | 33.1 | 26.9 | 6.8 | 21.9 | 9.2 | – | 6.2 | ||
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | 69.4 | 44.1 | 28.5 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 6.9 | – | 15.6 | ||
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | 31.5 | 23.5 | 0.7 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 28.9 | 8.0 | |||
| CIS | 10–26 Apr 2023 | 971 | 38.4 | 18.2 | 1.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 21.7 | 2.9 | 20.2 | |
| Idus3/PSOE | 3–5 Apr 2023 | 500 | 30.5 | 16.1 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 32.2 | 6.9 | 14.4 | |
| Idus3/PSOE | 9–27 Jan 2023 | 4,723 | 30.0 | 17.0 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 32.2 | 6.9 | 13.0 | |
| CIS | 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 449 | 29.9 | 13.9 | 0.7 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 28.9 | 5.4 | 16.0 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[85] | 3–25 Nov 2022 | 4,350 | 28.8 | 15.4 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 35.2 | 7.5 | 13.4 | |
| Idus3/PSOE[86] | 16–20 May 2022 | 800 | 32.0 | 17.9 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 28.2 | 7.3 | 14.1 | |
| Idus3/PSOE | 3–17 Dec 2021 | 4,723 | 31.5 | 18.3 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 24.1 | 9.1 | 13.2 | |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | 23.3 | 18.9 | 4.8 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 28.6 | 4.4 | |||
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | 30.9 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 29.2 | 10.9 | |||
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Other/ None/ Not care | Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMOP/El Confidencial | 4–6 May 2023 | 1,295 | 42.0 | 13.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 29.0 | ||
| Idus3/PSOE[87] | 9–27 Jan 2023 | 4,723 | 46.2 | 13.9 | – | – | – | 26.8 | 13.1 | 32.3 | ||
| Idus3/PSOE[88] | 16–20 May 2022 | 800 | 47.5 | 12.4 | – | – | – | 22.9 | 17.2 | 35.1 | ||
| Idus3/PSOE[89] | 3–17 Dec 2021 | 4,723 | 58.0 | 18.0 | – | – | – | 24.0 | 40.0 | |||
| GAD3/PSOE | 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 | 1,202 | 38.0 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 41.2 | 26.8 | |||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 490,288 | 45.04 | +0.94 | 17 | –2 | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 366,312 | 33.65 | +5.12 | 12 | +2 | ||
| Vox (Vox) | 139,607 | 12.83 | +5.81 | 4 | +4 | ||
| United We Can Castilla–La Mancha (Unidas Podemos CLM) | 45,317 | 4.16 | –2.76 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS) | 10,885 | 1.00 | –10.38 | 0 | –4 | ||
| Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)1 | 10,727 | 0.99 | +0.19 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Empty Spain (España Vaciada) | 3,654 | 0.33 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Empty Spain (España Vaciada) | 1,670 | 0.15 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Country with Managers (País con Gestores) | 2,151 | 0.20 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Castilian Party–Commoners' Land–Zero Cuts (PCAS–TC–RC) | 1,345 | 0.12 | –0.01 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 989 | 0.09 | –0.03 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Here Now (Aquí Ahora) | 724 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Your Fatherland (TÚpatria) | 585 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 299 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 15,570 | 1.43 | +0.62 | ||||
| Total | 1,088,453 | 33 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 1,088,453 | 98.28 | –0.67 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 19,054 | 1.72 | +0.67 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 1,107,507 | 69.60 | +0.15 | ||||
| Abstentions | 483,755 | 30.40 | –0.15 | ||||
| Registered voters | 1,591,262 | ||||||
| Sources[90] | |||||||
| Constituency | PSOE | PP | Vox | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S |
| Albacete | 42.6 | 3 | 35.5 | 3 | 12.4 | 1 | |||||
| Ciudad Real | 46.6 | 4 | 34.5 | 2 | 12.0 | 1 | |||||
| Cuenca | 47.4 | 3 | 33.6 | 2 | 10.5 | − | |||||
| Guadalajara | 42.2 | 2 | 30.3 | 2 | 16.1 | 1 | |||||
| Toledo | 45.6 | 5 | 33.2 | 3 | 13.3 | 1 | |||||
| Total | 45.0 | 17 | 33.7 | 12 | 12.8 | 4 | |||||
| Sources | |||||||||||
| Investiture Emiliano García-Page (PSOE) | |||
| Ballot → | 6 July 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 17 out of 33 | ||
| Abstentions | |||
| Absentees | |||
| Sources[91] | |||