2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma explained

2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma should not be confused with 2022 Oklahoma Senate election.

Election Name:2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2026 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
Next Year:2026
Image1:Markwayne Mullin official Senate photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Markwayne Mullin
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:710,643
Percentage1:61.77%
Nominee2:Kendra Horn
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:405,389
Percentage2:35.24%
U.S. senator
Before Election:Jim Inhofe
Before Party:Republican Party (US)
After Election:Markwayne Mullin
After Party:Republican Party (US)

The 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Oklahoma. The election took place concurrently with the regularly scheduled election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat.[1] The candidate filing deadline was between April 13 and 15, 2022.

This special election was held to fill the remaining four years of incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's term. In February 2022, Inhofe announced that he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress on January 3, 2023. He was first elected in a 1994 special election with 55% of the vote to succeed Democratic senator David Boren in the wake of his impending resignation to become president of the University of Oklahoma.[2] Most recently, Inhofe was re-elected to a fifth full term in 2020 with 62.9% of the vote.[3]

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn secured the Democratic nomination by default, while the primary election for the Republican nomination took place on June 28, 2022. U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin won the Republican primary runoff on August 23, defeating former State House Speaker T. W. Shannon.[4] Mullin ultimately won the election.[5]

Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, became the first Native American to serve in the U.S. Senate since fellow Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired from Congress in 2005, and the first Native American representing this state since Robert Owen in 1925.[6] Conversely, Horn won Oklahoma County, making her the first Democrat since 2008 to carry any Oklahoma county in a Senate election.

Republican primary

On February 25, 2022, Jim Inhofe, the state's longest-serving U.S. Senator, announced he would leave office at the end of the 117th Congress, triggering a special election for his U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma.[7] A crowded field of candidates was expected in the Republican primary following the announcement of Inhofe's retirement.[8]

Luke Holland, Inhofe's former chief of staff, launched his campaign for Inhofe's seat on the same day with Inhofe's endorsement. The next day, Markwayne Mullin, a U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, announced his campaign. By February 28, Oklahoma State Senator Nathan Dahm had announced he was switching his campaign from running for Oklahoma's Class III seat to running for the special election seat. On March 8, former United States National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray announced his campaign.[9] T. W. Shannon, a former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, officially announced his campaign on March 11. Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, filed to run on April 15.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in initial primary

Withdrew before primary

Declined

First round

Debates

2022 Republican primary debates
DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
Participant  Absent  Non-invitee  Invitee Withdrawn
Nathan
Dahm		Luke
Holland		Markwayne
Mullin		Scott
Pruitt		T.W.
Shannon
1June 9, 2022News on 6Amanda TaylorLink
2June 22, 2022News on 6Alex CameronLink

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Nathan
Dahm		Jessica
Garrison		Alex
Gray		Randy
Grellner		Luke
Holland		Adam
Holley		Markwayne
Mullin		Scott
Pruitt		T.W.
Shannon		OtherUndecided
SoonerPollJune 13–21, 2022350 (LV)± 5.2%8%–2%1%5%–39%2%13%–30%
Amber Integrated (R)June 6–9, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%5%3%0%1%4%0%38%6%19%0%22%
SoonerPollApril 25 – May 11, 2022306 (LV)± 5.6%6%0%0%1%3%1%38%3%16%0%31%
Amber Integrated (R)March 24–27, 2022455 (LV)± 4.6%6%–1%–2%–39%–14%–38%

Results

Runoff

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Markwayne
Mullin		T.W.
Shannon		Undecided
SoonerPollAugust 11–17, 2022322 (LV)± 5.4%53%47%0%
Amber Integrated (R)August 11–15, 2022684 (LV)± 3.8%49%31%20%
Battleground Connect (R)July 31 – August 1, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%46%38%16%
SoonerPollJuly 25 – August 1, 2022383 (LV)± 5.0%63%35%1%

Results

Democratic nomination

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn was the only Democrat to file to run and was automatically awarded the Democratic nomination.[29]

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[32] February 24, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[33] February 24, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] March 1, 2022
Politico[35] April 1, 2022
RCP[36] February 24, 2022
align=left Fox News[37] May 12, 2022
DDHQ[38] July 20, 2022
538[39] June 30, 2022
The Economist[40] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Markwayne
Mullin (R)		Kendra
Horn (D)		OtherUndecided
Ascend Action (R)November 5–6, 2022682 (LV)± 3.8%53%41%3%4%
Amber Integrated (R)October 26–28, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%52%41%4%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%56%35%4%5%
59%36%5%–
Ascend Action (R)October 24–28, 2022749 (LV)± 3.6%47%41%4%8%
Amber Integrated (R)October 13–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%39%5%3%
Ascend Action (R)October 10–12, 2022638 (LV)± 3.9%50%39%1%10%
SoonerPollOctober 3–6, 2022301 (LV)–51%42%3%4%
Amber Integrated (R)September 19–21, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%50%39%–11%
–(L)September 15–18, 20222,989 (LV)± 3.2%49%37%5%9%
SoonerPollSeptember 2–7, 2022402 (LV)± 4.9%52%40%4%4%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022522 (RV)± 6.3%58%28%–13%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Mullin won all 5 congressional districts.[41]

DistrictMullinHornRepresentative
56.5%40.5%Kevin Hern
72.5%24.6%Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress)
Josh Brecheen (118th Congress)
67.3%29.6%Frank Lucas
60.3%36.5%Tom Cole
53.7%43.4%Stephanie Bice

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Beavers . Olivia . Everett . Burgess . Inhofe to retire from Senate, teeing up special election in Oklahoma . February 25, 2022 . Politico . February 24, 2022.
  2. Web site: Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 4, 2014 . Oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board . March 25, 2021 . April 8, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210408200906/https://oklahoma.gov/elections/support/2014/20141104-seb.html . dead .
  3. Web site: Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 3, 2020 . Oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board . February 24, 2022 .
  4. Web site: 2022 Statutory Election Dates and Deadlines . oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board . October 13, 2021 . April 25, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220425080130/https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/elections/dates-and-deadlines/2022-statutory-dates-deadlines.pdf . dead .
  5. Web site: KOCO Staff . November 9, 2022 . Oklahoma Election Results: Markwayne Mullin wins race for US Senate, claiming Inhofe's open seat . November 9, 2022 . KOCO . en.
  6. Web site: Associated Press . Markwayne Mullin wins US Senate seat . November 12, 2022 . ICT . en.
  7. News: Eger . Andrea . U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe announces retirement after 35 years in Congress representing Oklahoma . February 25, 2022 . Tulsa World . February 25, 2022.
  8. News: Gorman . Reese . Contenders for Oklahoma's open Senate seat face a crowded race . February 25, 2022 . The Frontier . February 25, 2022.
  9. News: Vakil . Caroline . Former Trump national security official jumps into Senate race in Oklahoma . March 8, 2022 . The Hill . March 8, 2022.
  10. News: Morris . Callie . Rep. Markwayne Mullin announces run for Senate . KTUL News . February 26, 2022 . February 26, 2022.
  11. News: Krehbiel . Randy . Former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon expected to announce U.S. Senate candidacy . March 10, 2022 . Tulsa World . March 9, 2022.
  12. News: Krehbiel . Randy . Political notebook: State and local officials awaiting details on infrastructure bill money . November 14, 2021 . Tulsa World . November 14, 2021.
  13. Web site: CANDIDATES FOR ELECTIVE OFFICE 2022 . oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board . April 16, 2022 . May 23, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220523031757/https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/elections/candidate-filing-archives/2022-candidate-filing-archives/2022listbook.pdf . dead .
  14. News: Luke Holland, Sen. Inhofe's chief of staff, announces candidacy for US Senate . KOCO . February 25, 2022 . February 25, 2022.
  15. Web site: Ex-EPA head Scott Pruitt to run for US Senate in Oklahoma. April 15, 2022 . Seattle Times. April 15, 2022.
  16. News: Patterson . Matt . Double Senate races: Inhofe retirement draws a crowd . April 16, 2022 . NonDoc . April 15, 2022.
  17. News: LaCroix . Ryan . Mills . Kateleigh . Korth . Robby . LiCastro . Brooklyn . 6 Oklahoma primary election races to watch . June 28, 2022 . KOSU NPR . June 27, 2022.
  18. News: Martin. Jonathan. February 24, 2022. James Inhofe, Oklahoma Senator, Is Said to Plan an Early Retirement. en-US. The New York Times. February 25, 2022. 0362-4331.
  19. News: Oklahoma . February 25, 2022 . Politics1 . February 25, 2022.
  20. News: Canfield . Kevin . Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat . February 28, 2022 . Tulsa World . February 28, 2022.
  21. News: Oklahoma Senate Special: Inhofe Seat Added to 2022 Races . February 24, 2022 . Inside Elections . February 24, 2022.
  22. News: That's one fewer aspirant to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe: Oklahoma Rep. Kevin Hern isn't expected to run, per a Republican familiar with the situation. . March 16, 2022 . Politico . March 15, 2022.
  23. News: Bishop-Baldwin . Mary . Mullin announces bid for U.S. Senate seat . February 26, 2022 . Tulsa World . February 26, 2022.
  24. News: OKLAHOMA . March 4, 2022 . Politics1.
  25. News: Kapos. Shia. Mary Miller reveals the GOP divide on Ukraine. February 25, 2022. Politico Illinois Playbook. February 25, 2022.
  26. News: Oklahoma Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell: 'I will not be seeking another office at this time' . March 8, 2022 . KOCO 5 News . March 7, 2022.
  27. News: Savage . Tres . Why U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe may announce retirement before March 1 . February 25, 2022 . NonDoc . February 24, 2022.
  28. News: Faught . Jamison . Former State Rep. Paul Wesselhöft exploring U.S. Senate campaign . March 8, 2022 . Muskogee Politico . February 26, 2022.
  29. Web site: Casteel . Chris . Oklahoma Senate, congressional races draw crowds as candidate filing ends . September 1, 2022 . The Oklahoman . en-US.
  30. News: Rep. Markwayne Mullin wins U.S. Senate GOP runoff in deep-red Oklahoma . August 23, 2022 . August 26, 2022 . Sean . Murphy . . .
  31. News: Crowded Fields: 2 US Senate seats are up for grabs . June 6, 2022 . Tulsa Beacon . April 28, 2022 . Murphy is a retired data tech from OU. . . He is a veteran from the U.S. Marines who worked as a carpenter from 1978-1983..
  32. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . February 24, 2022.
  33. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . February 24, 2021.
  34. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . February 24, 2022.
  35. Web site: Oklahoma Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  36. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. February 24, 2022 . RCP.
  37. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
  38. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  39. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  40. News: The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast . The Economist . September 18, 2022 . September 18, 2022.
  41. Results . docs.google.com .

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