2022 United States Senate elections in California explained

Election Name:	2022 United States Senate elections in California
Country:	California
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2016 United States Senate election in California
Previous Year:	2016
Next Election:	2028 United States Senate election in California
Next Year:	2028
Election Date:	November 8, 2022
1Blank:	Regular election
2Blank:	Special election
Image1:	Alex Padilla 117th Congress portrait (3) (cropped).jpg
Candidate1:	Alex Padilla
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Candidate2:	Mark Meuser
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
U.S. senator
Before Election:	Alex Padilla
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Alex Padilla
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
1Data1:	6,621,616 61.06%
1Data2:	4,222,025 38.94%
2Data1:	6,559,303 60.89%
2Data2:	4,212,446 39.11%

Two 2022 United States Senate elections in California were held concurrently on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 3 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 117th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2023), and a general election for a full term (beginning on the same day), starting in the 118th United States Congress.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Alex Padilla was appointed in 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy created by Kamala Harris's election to the vice presidency in 2020, and he sought a full term.^{[1] [2]} A jungle primary for each of the terms took place on June 7.^[3] The top two candidates in each primary, regardless of party, advanced to the special and regular general elections in November. With his advancement out of the primary, Mark P. Meuser became the first Republican since 2012 to advance to the general election, as both the 2016 and 2018 Senate elections solely featured Democrats as the top two candidates. This race was a rematch between the two, as both had previously run for the secretary of state in 2018. Padilla won both elections with more than 60% of the vote.^[4] He became the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from California, and the first male elected to the Senate from California since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988 and the first male elected to the Class 3 Senate seat from California since Alan Cranston was re-elected in 1986.^[5] This was the first time since 1988 where both major party nominees for a Senate seat in California were men and was also the first time where both major party nominees for the Class 3 Senate seat in California were men since 1986.

This was the best performance for a Republican candidate in a California Senate election since 2010.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

• Alex Padilla, incumbent U.S. Senator (2021–present) and former secretary of state of California (2015–2021)^[6]

Eliminated in primary

• Akinyemi Agbede, mathematician^[7]
• Dan O'Dowd, founder and president of Green Hills Software and candidate for U.S. Senate in 1994^[8]
• Douglas Howard Pierce, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018^[7]
• Obaidul Huq Pirjada, attorney^[7]
• Timothy J. Ursich, doctor^[7]

Declined

• Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative for California's 17th congressional district (2017–present) (endorsed Padilla)^{[9] [10]}

Republican Party

Advanced to general

• Mark P. Meuser, attorney and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018^[7]

Eliminated in primary

• James P. Bradley, businessman, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for in 2020^[7]
• Jon Elist, small business owner^[7]
• Myron L. Hall, physician^[7]
• Sarah Sun Liew, entrepreneur^[7]
• Robert George Lucero Jr., consultant^[7]
• Enrique Petris, businessman^[7]
• Chuck Smith, retired law enforcement officer^[7]
• Carlos Guillermo Tapia, businessman^[7]
• Cordie Williams, marine veteran and doctor^[7]
• Lijun Zhou, businesswoman (write-in, general election only)^[11]

Withdrawn

• Yvonne R. Girard, retired government employee (died)^[12]
• Elizabeth Heng, candidate for in 2018 and former U.S. House staffer (ran in the CA-22 special election)^{[13] [14] [15]}

Green Party

Eliminated in primary

• James "Henk" Conn, educator and candidate for mayor of Long Beach in 2018^[7]
• Pamela Elizondo, entrepreneur^[7]

Peace and Freedom Party

Eliminated in primary

• John Parker, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and Workers World nominee for President of the United States in 2004 (running as write-in for special election)^[16]

No party preference

Eliminated in primary

• Daphne Bradford, entrepreneur and candidate for president in 2020^[7]
• Eleanor Garcia, industrial worker (Socialist Workers Party)^[7]
• Don J. Grundmann, chiropractor (Constitution Party)^[7]
• Deon D. Jenkins^[7]
• Irene Ratliff (write-in, both general and special elections)
• Marc Alexander Roth (write-in, general election only)
• Mark A. Ruzon (write-in, general election only), software engineer (American Solidarity Party)

Primary elections

Campaign

Incumbent senator Alex Padilla was appointed to the job in January 2021 following Kamala Harris's election to the office of Vice President of the United States.^[17] Following his appointment, Padilla quickly began to focus on his 2022 election campaign, as the fact that he has not been elected to the position means that he has a relatively low profile.^[9] Padilla's election strategy focused on advocating for progressive policies and building ties with left-wing organizations that had a poor relationship with California's other Senator, Dianne Feinstein.^{[9] [18]} The potential Democratic opponent to Padilla considered most likely to join the race was U.S. Representative Ro Khanna, a staunchly left-wing Democrat who rose to prominence as the co-chair of the Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign, and who had a loyal base of support from California's Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities.^{[9] [10]} On August 9, 2021, Khanna announced that he would be endorsing Padilla for election, which was viewed as likely ending any possibility that Padilla would face a serious Democratic opponent.^[19] It was noted by the San Francisco Chronicle that it was considered unlikely that Padilla would face any serious Republican opponent, as California's heavily Democratic lean caused potentially strong candidates, such as U.S. Representatives Mike Garcia and Young Kim, to prefer to remain in their positions rather than launch a long-shot Senate run.^[20]

In April 2022, billionaire businessman Dan O'Dowd entered the race, launching a $650,000 ad campaign.^[8] O'Dowd's goal with this ad buy, and with entering the race in the first place, was to "make computers safe for humanity"^{[21] [22]} and draw the attention of the public and politicians to the dangers of Tesla's unfinished Full Self-Driving software being rolled out to 100,000 cars on public roads.^[23]

Special election blanket primary

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Daphne Bradford (NPP)	James Bradley (R)	Jon Elist (R)	Myron Hall (R)	Mark Meuser (R)	Dan O'Dowd (D)	Alex Padilla (D)	Timothy Ursich Jr. (D)	Undecided
Berkeley IGS	May 24–31, 2022	3,438 (LV)	± 2.2%	1%	7%	5%	2%		14%	3%		44%	2%		21%
SurveyUSA	May 13–15, 2022	709 (LV)	± 4.5%	1%	8%	7%	3%		11%	6%		40%	2%		22%

Results

Regular election blanket primary

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error
Berkeley IGS	May 24–31, 2022	3,438 (LV)	± 2.2%	1%	0%	3%	0%	2%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	0%		11%	1%		42%	1%	0%	1%	1%	6%	1%	1%	2%		22%
SurveyUSA	May 13–15, 2022	709 (LV)	± 4.5%	2%	0%		9%	1%	4%	0%	0%	0%	3%	0%	3%	2%	4%	1%		36%	0%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%		24%

Results

General elections

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[24]		March 4, 2022
align=left	Inside Elections^[25]		April 1, 2022
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[26]		March 1, 2022
Politico^[27]		April 1, 2022
RCP^[28]		February 24, 2022
align=left	Fox News^[29]		May 12, 2022
DDHQ^[30]		July 20, 2022
538^[31]		June 30, 2022
The Economist^[32]		September 7, 2022

Polling

Special election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Alex Padilla (D)	Mark Meuser (R)	Undecided
Research Co.	November 4–6, 2022	450 (LV)	± 4.6%		59%	35%	6%
SurveyUSA	October 7–10, 2022	1,013 (LV)	± 4.4%		56%	34%	10%

Regular election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Alex Padilla (D)	Mark Meuser (R)	Undecided
Research Co.	November 4–6, 2022	450 (LV)	± 4.6%		60%	35%	5%
USC	October 30 – November 2, 2022	802 (RV)	± 3.5%		63%	37%	–
ActiVote	July 22 – October 20, 2022	208 (LV)	± 7.0%		65%	35%	–
SurveyUSA	October 7–10, 2022	1,013 (LV)	± 4.4%		56%	34%	11%

Results

By county

County	Alex Padilla Democratic		Mark Meuser Republican		Margin		Total votes
	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"			data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%
	Alameda		383,300		80.26		94,283		19.74		289,017		60.52		477,583
	Alpine		372		60.78		240		39.22		132		21.56		612
	Amador		6,522		35.37		11,917		64.63		-5,395		-29.26		18,439
	Butte		33,467		46.71		38,183		53.29		-4,716		-6.58		71,650
	Calaveras		7,649		36.31		13,415		63.69		-5,766		-27.38		21,064
	Colusa		1,807		33.11		3,651		66.89		-1,844		-33.78		5,458
	Contra Costa		267,331		69.72		116,122		30.28		151,209		39.44		383,453
	Del Norte		3,400		41.20		4,852		58.80		-1,452		-17.60		8,252
	El Dorado		36,669		41.81		51,025		58.19		-14,356		-16.38		87,694
	Fresno		100,963		47.00		113,845		53.00		-12,882		-10.16		214,808
	Glenn		2,234		28.52		5,600		71.48		-4,070		-51.32		7,930
	Humboldt		30,612		64.17		17,096		35.83		13,516		28.34		47,708
	Imperial		17,774		59.86		11,919		40.14		5,855		19.72		29,693
	Inyo		3,488		47.35		3,878		52.65		-390		-5.30		7,366
	Kern		73,779		39.41		113,428		60.59		-39,649		-21.18		188,703
	Kings		10,067		37.85		16,533		62.15		-6,466		-24.30		26,600
	Lake		10,138		50.93		9,769		49.07		369		1.86		19,907
	Lassen		1,888		20.82		7,181		79.18		-5,293		-58.36		9,069
	Los Angeles		1,670,306		70.00		715,913		30.00		954,393		40.00		2,386,219
	Madera		14,018		38.37		22,514		61.63		-8,496		-23.26		36,532
	Marin		95,496		81.05		22,326		18.95		73,170		62.10		117,822
	Mariposa		3,050		39.34		4,703		60.66		-1,653		-21.32		7,753
	Mendocino		19,745		65.49		10,406		34.51		9,339		30.98		30,151
	Merced		26,755		48.96		27,893		51.04		-1,138		-2.08		54,648
	Modoc		802		23.91		2,552		76.09		-1,750		-52.18		3,354
	Mono		2,594		57.40		1,925		42.60		669		14.80		4,519
	Monterey		67,153		66.37		34,026		33.63		33,127		32.74		101,179
	Napa		32,651		66.36		16,549		33.64		16,102		32.72		49,200
	Nevada		27,898		55.38		22,478		44.62		5,420		10.76		50,376
	Orange		479,494		49.50		489,185		50.50		-9,691		-1.00		968,679
	Placer		77,540		43.05		102,597		56.95		-25,057		-13.90		180,137
	Plumas		3,405		39.79		5,153		60.21		-1,748		-20.42		8,558
	Riverside		289,599		49.40		296,687		50.60		-7,088		-1.20		586,286
	Sacramento		283,117		59.98		188,925		40.02		94,192		19.96		472,042
	San Benito		11,016		56.83		8,368		43.17		2,648		13.66		19,384
	San Bernardino		218,494		49.10		226,470		50.90		-7,976		-1.80		444,964
	San Diego		586,284		57.57		432,027		42.43		154,257		15.14		1,018,311
	San Francisco		254,756		85.65		42,699		14.35		212,057		71.30		297,455
	San Joaquin		90,289		51.49		85,078		48.51		5,211		2.98		175,367
	San Luis Obispo		63,076		53.38		55,087		46.62		7,989		6.76		118,163
	San Mateo		186,891		76.37		57,825		23.63		129,066		52.74		244,716
	Santa Barbara		82,255		61.57		51,339		38.43		30,916		23.14		133,594
	Santa Clara		383,152		71.43		153,249		28.57		229,903		42.86		536,401
	Santa Cruz		80,675		77.96		22,810		22.04		57,865		55.92		103,485
	Shasta		20,805		30.80		46,750		69.20		-25,945		-38.40		67,555
	Sierra		572		37.02		973		62.98		-401		-25.96		1,545
	Siskiyou		6,892		39.39		10,607		60.61		-3,715		-21.22		17,499
	Solano		80,317		61.90		49,443		38.10		30,874		23.80		129,760
	Sonoma		143,197		73.37		51,982		26.63		91,215		46.74		195,179
	Stanislaus		57,861		44.97		70,792		55.03		-12,931		-10.06		128,653
	Sutter		9,797		35.47		17,827		64.53		-8,030		-29.06		27,624
	Tehama		5,670		27.72		14,784		72.28		-9,114		-44.56		20,454
	Trinity		2,019		44.80		2,488		55.20		-469		-10.40		4,507
	Tulare		35,215		38.88		55,359		61.12		-20,144		-22.24		90,574
	Tuolumne		8,932		38.92		14,016		61.08		-5,084		-22.16		22,948
	Ventura		155,231		56.03		121,822		43.97		33,409		12.06		277,053
	Yolo		46,094		68.68		21,022		31.32		25,072		37.36		67,116
	Yuba		7,043		36.15		12,439		63.85		-5,396		-27.70		19,482
Totals	6,621,616	61.06	4,222,025	38.94	2,399,591	22.12	10,843,641

By congressional district

Padilla won 42 of 52 congressional districts in the regular election, including two that elected Republicans.^[33]

District	Padilla	Meuser	Representative
		36%	64%		Doug LaMalfa
		73%	27%		Jared Huffman
		46%	54%		Kevin Kiley
		66%	34%		Mike Thompson
		40%	60%		Tom McClintock
		57%	43%		Ami Bera
		66%	34%		Doris Matsui
		75%	25%		John Garamendi
		51%	49%		Josh Harder
		66%	34%		Mark DeSaulnier
		86%	14%		Nancy Pelosi
		91%	9%		Barbara Lee
		49%	51%		John Duarte
		70%	30%		Eric Swalwell
	77%	23%		Jackie Speier (117th Congress)
			Kevin Mullin (118th Congress)
		74%	26%		Anna Eshoo
		71%	29%		Ro Khanna
		68%	32%		Zoe Lofgren
		67%	33%		Jimmy Panetta
		32%	68%		Kevin McCarthy
		53%	47%		Jim Costa
		51%	49%		David Valadao
		41%	59%		Jay Obernolte
		61%	39%		Salud Carbajal
		55%	45%		Raul Ruiz
		55%	45%		Julia Brownley
		51%	49%		Mike Garcia
		65%	35%		Judy Chu
		76%	24%		Tony Cárdenas
		77%	23%		Adam Schiff
		61%	39%		Grace Napolitano
		69%	31%		Brad Sherman
		57%	43%		Pete Aguilar
		83%	17%		Jimmy Gomez
		57%	43%		Norma Torres
		69%	31%		Ted Lieu
	86%	14%		Karen Bass (117th Congress)
			Sydney Kamlager-Dove (118th Congress)
		60%	40%		Linda Sánchez
		56%	44%		Mark Takano
		46%	54%		Young Kim
		47%	53%		Ken Calvert
	69%	31%		Lucille Roybal-Allard (117th Congress)
			Robert Garcia (118th Congress)
		80%	20%		Maxine Waters
		72%	28%		Nanette Barragán
		49%	51%		Michelle Steel
		61%	39%		Lou Correa
		51%	49%		Katie Porter
		40%	60%		Darrell Issa
		52%	48%		Mike Levin
		63%	37%		Scott Peters
		61%	39%		Sara Jacobs
		65%	35%		Juan Vargas

See also

• 2022 United States Senate elections
• 2022 California elections
• 117th United States Congress
• List of special elections to the United States Senate

External links

Official campaign websites

• Mark Meuser (R) for Senate
• Alex Padilla (D) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: Wilson. Reid. September 28, 2021. California rule change means Padilla faces extra election. The Hill. live. September 28, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210928225230/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/574242-california-rule-change-means-padilla-faces-extra-election. September 28, 2021.
2. Web site: Willon. Phil. McGreevy. Patrick. Alex Padilla becomes California's first Latino U.S. senator, replacing Kamala Harris. Los Angeles Times. December 22, 2020. December 22, 2020.
3. Web site: Statewide Direct Primary Election - June 7, 2022. live. September 28, 2021. California Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20201223100223/https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/statewide-direct-primary-election-june-7-2022 . December 23, 2020 .
4. Web site: 2022-11-09 . Alex Padilla makes history as first Latino elected to U.S. Senate from California . 2022-11-09 . Los Angeles Times . en-US.
5. Web site: Meet the history-makers of the 2022 midterm elections | CNN Politics . . November 9, 2022 .
6. News: December 23, 2020 . Alex Padilla and Shirley Weber will run in 2022. They'll likely have challengers. . SF Gate . Ting, Eric.
7. Web site: Primary Election - June 7, 2022 . 26 March 2022 . March 26, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220326021149/https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/primary-election-june-7-2022 . dead .
8. Web site: Cadelago. Christopher. April 16, 2022. He wants to destroy Elon Musk. He could end up endangering the Dems' Senate plans.. live. April 16, 2022. Politico. https://web.archive.org/web/20220416122459/https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/16/don-odowd-elon-musk-00025688 . April 16, 2022 .
9. Web site: Sen. Alex Padilla, just months into the job, has a year and a half to convince voters he should keep it. Los Angeles Times. Haberkorn. Jennifer. May 3, 2021.
10. News: Khanna won't challenge Padilla for Senate, ends intraparty threat from left. Politico. Marinucci. Carla. August 9, 2021. August 9, 2021.
11. Web site: Official Certified List of Write-In Candidates - June 7, 2022 . California Secretary of State . May 27, 2022 . May 30, 2022 .
12. Web site: Yvonne For US Senate 2022 . Yvonne For US Senate 2022 . 2007-02-26 . 2022-06-03 . April 20, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220420011832/https://yvonneforussenate2022.com/ . dead .
13. Web site: FILING FEC-1503114. March 8, 2021 . fec.gov. March 8, 2021.
14. Web site: Miller. Thaddeus. March 8, 2021. Fresno native to challenge for a U.S. Senate seat, blasts Newsom. Can she win?. Fresno Bee.
15. Web site: Taub. David. December 17, 2021. Heng Enters House Race Even as the Lines Keep Changing. December 18, 2021. GV Wire.
16. Web site: Two California Ballot-Qualified Parties Will Run a Joint Campaign for Statewide Office in 2022. Winger. Richard. Richard Winger. November 15, 2021.
17. Web site: Alex Padilla: 5 things to know about California's new senator. Mercury News. Deruy. Emily. January 18, 2021. August 10, 2021.
18. News: Progressives fed up with Feinstein, want her to resign now. San Francisco Chronicle. Garofoli. Joe. June 16, 2021. August 10, 2021.
19. News: Khanna considered challenging Padilla, but now he's endorsing him for Senate. San Francisco Chronicle. Garofoli. Joe. August 9, 2021. August 9, 2021.
20. News: Wildermuth. John. December 19, 2020. Can California GOP find a Senate candidate in 2022? If not, Alex Padilla could be set for years. February 8, 2021. San Francisco Chronicle.
21. Web site: About Dan O'Dowd - Dan O'Dowd for U.S. Senate .
22. Web site: Billionaire's Senate run focuses on banning 'self-driving' Tesla's. Korosec, Kirsten. April 20, 2022. techcrunch.com.
23. Web site: Elon Musk Says Tesla's FSD Now Has over 100,000 Beta Testers. Loveday, Steven. April 18, 2022. Insideevs.com.
24. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . January 14, 2021.
25. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
26. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
27. Web site: California Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
28. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
29. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
30. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
31. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
32. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
33. Results . docs.google.com .