2022 United States Senate election in Utah explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Utah
Country:Utah
Flag Year:2011
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Utah
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Utah
Next Year:2028
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:File:Mike Lee, official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Mike Lee
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:571,974
Percentage1:53.15%
Nominee2:Evan McMullin
Party2:Independent (United States)
Popular Vote2:459,958
Percentage2:42.74%
Map Size:220px
U.S. senator
Before Election:Mike Lee
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Mike Lee
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Alliance2:Democratic
Alliance1:

The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent senator Mike Lee, who was first elected in 2010, won re-election to a third term, defeating Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who was endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party.

This was the first Senate election in Utah's history in which there was no Democratic nominee. Lee's performance was the worst for a Republican in a Utah U.S. Senate election since 1974, while McMullin's was the best ever for an independent in a Utah U.S. Senate race and the best for a non-Republican since 1976.

Republican primary

Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee won over 70% of the vote at the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022. Though considered by the party to be its nominee, a primary was still held on June 28, 2022, after two other candidates garnered enough signatures to qualify.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Did not file

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Evan
Barlow
Loy
Brunson
Becky
Edwards
Jeremy
Friedbaum
Laird
Hamblin
Ally
Isom
Tyrone
Jensen
Mike
Lee
Brendan
Wright
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 7–13, 2022503 (LV)± 4.3%19%6%49%26%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMarch 9–21, 2022484 (LV)± 4.5%6%1%19%2%1%4%67%
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022366 (RV)± 5.1%5%2%2%51%2%37%
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 14–21, 2021469 (LV)± 4.5%7%2%53%6%32%
OH Predictive InsightsAugust 2–8, 2021337 (RV)± 5.3%3%2%45%3%48%
RMG ResearchJune 24–25, 2021587 (LV)± 4.0%11%47%8%33%

Results

Convention

State Republican Convention results, 2022
CandidateFirst ballotPct.
2,62170.74%
43611.77%
3589.66%
1323.56%
752.02%
711.92%
120.32%
Total

Primary

Democratic convention

The Utah Democratic Party state convention took place on April 23, 2022.[15] Kael Weston was the only Democrat still running; however, the party endorsed Evan McMullin's independent bid in lieu of nominating a candidate,[16] following encouragement from many prominent Democrats in the state, including former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, to back McMullin's campaign.

Candidates

Eliminated at convention

Did not file

Withdrew

Declined

Convention vote

The Utah Democratic Party held a state convention on April 23, 2022, to endorse candidates for state offices.[23] [24] [25] Supporters of independent candidate Evan McMullin, led by Salt Lake County mayor Jenny Wilson, introduced a motion for the state party to forgo nominating a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and to instead "join Evan McMullin’s independent coalition to beat Mike Lee",[24] contending that not doing so would split the anti-Lee vote in the general election.[24] [25] The motion was opposed by supporters of Kael Weston, the lone Democratic candidate for the seat who thus would have received the nomination had the motion failed.[25] The delegates passed the motion by a 57%–43% margin.[24] [25]

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

Independent American convention

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[31] August 18, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[32] September 9, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] June 15, 2022
Politico[34] April 1, 2022
RCP[35] November 5, 2022
align=left Fox News[36] September 20, 2022
DDHQ[37] July 20, 2022
538[38] September 22, 2022
The Economist[39] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
Margin
FiveThirtyEightJune 15 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202248.5%38.7%12.8%Lee +9.8
270towinOctober 31 – November 1, 2022November 8, 202248.0%36.7%15.3%Lee +11.3
Average48.2%37.7%14.1%Lee +10.5
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Hill Research Consultants (I)October 29–30, 2022500 (LV)47%46%
Emerson CollegeOctober 25–28, 2022825 (LV)± 3.3%49%39%9%4%
50%40%11%
OH Predictive InsightsOctober 25–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%53%34%4%9%
Hill Research Consultants (I)October 8–11, 2022500 (LV)43%49%4%4%
42%46%4%8%
Kurt Jetta (I)October 4–11, 2022406 (RV)± 3.5%38%37%26%
239 (LV)50%38%12%
OH Predictive InsightsOctober 5–6, 2022483 (LV)± 4.5%47%32%5%16%
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 3–6, 2022801 (RV)± 3.5%41%37%8%12%
773 (LV)42%37%8%12%
Dan Jones & AssociatesSeptember 3–21, 2022815 (RV)± 3.4%36%34%13%16%
786 (LV)37%34%13%16%
Lighthouse ResearchAugust 30 – September 13, 2022509 (LV)± 4.4%48%37%10%5%
Kurt Jetta (I)September 1–8, 2022474 (RV)± 3.5%40%37%23%
239 (LV)43%39%18%
Impact Research (I)August 29 – September 1, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%46%47%7%
WPA Intelligence (R)August 4–5, 2022500 (LV)50%32%6%12%
Dan Jones & AssociatesJuly 13–18, 2022801 (RV)± 3.5%41%36%14%8%
WPA Intelligence (R)July 12–14, 2022529 (LV)± 4.3%49%35%10%5%
Kurt Jetta (I)July 12, 2022561 (A)± 4.1%43%32%26%
434 (RV)± 4.7%44%34%22%
213 (LV)± 6.7%50%36%15%
WPA Intelligence (R)June 14–16, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%52%33%15%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%41%35%4%20%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%41%37%4%19%
Kurt Jetta (I)March 5, 2022683 (A)± 3.7%31%26%44%
– (RV)33%27%40%
– (LV)38%30%32%
Becky Edwards vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Becky
Edwards (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%31%29%7%34%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%29%28%6%37%
Ally Isom vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ally
Isom (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%24%34%7%36%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%23%34%7%36%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R)March 20–24, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%49%13%25%1%12%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMarch 9–21, 2022804 (RV)± 3.5%43%11%19%3%24%
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%34%12%24%30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt vs. Evan McMullin
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston

Results

By county

CountyMike Lee
Republican
Evan McMullin
Independent
James Hansen
Libertarian
Tommy Williams
Ind. American
Write-inMarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Beaver1,97180.5541917.12331.35240.9800.001,55263.422,447
Box Elder14,43472.524,72523.744632.332761.3950.029,70948.7819,903
Cache24,58858.5615,58037.101,2282.925861.4080.029,00821.4541,990
Carbon4,26563.382,11431.422303.421191.7710.012,15131.976,729
Daggett37775.7010921.8940.8081.6100.0026853.81498
Davis66,38553.6352,80642.662,8972.341,6541.34360.0313,57910.97123,778
Duchesne5,17082.2891214.52961.531031.6420.034,25867.776,283
Emery3,26979.6071217.34701.70561.3600.002,55762.264,107
Garfield1,79575.2652021.80331.38371.5500.001,27553.462,385
Grand1,90140.942,42152.142505.38711.5300.00-520-11.204,643
Iron12,92374.663,75521.694372.521941.1200.009,16852.9717,309
Juab3,88682.1471415.09701.48611.2900.003,17267.054,731
Kane2,55369.7794625.851042.84561.5300.001,60743.923,659
Millard4,27983.4170113.66881.72621.2100.003,57869.755,130
Morgan3,66571.071,35826.33791.53551.0700.002,30744.745,157
Piute69288.388210.4760.7730.3800.0061077.91783
Rich84478.6620619.20141.3090.8400.0063859.461,073
Salt Lake144,93138.02218,49557.3213,9023.653,7800.99870.02-73,564-19.30381,195
San Juan3,11856.061,81532.633386.082895.2020.041,30323.435,562
Sanpete7,82978.261,91219.111501.501131.1300.005,91759.1510,004
Sevier6,41182.461,15214.821201.54921.1800.005,25967.647,775
Summit7,30535.8812,32560.545532.721710.8440.02-5,020-24.6620,358
Tooele13,37160.577,48733.928093.664021.8250.025,88426.6522,074
Uintah8,90582.191,55914.392031.871661.5310.017,34667.8010,834
Utah127,09661.6772,23835.054,9492.401,7620.85550.0354,85826.62206,100
Wasatch7,52855.915,42940.323502.601571.1700.002,09915.5913,464
Washington49,42071.1117,78625.591,5262.207691.1100.0031,63445.5269,501
Wayne1,05669.7541527.41261.72171.1200.0064142.341,514
Weber42,00754.5031,26540.562,7563.581,0111.31360.0510,74213.9477,075
Totals571,97453.15459,95842.7431,7842.9512,1031.122420.02112,01610.411,076,061
Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

By congressional district

Lee won all 4 congressional districts.[40]

DistrictLeeMcMullinRepresentative
52%44%Blake Moore
53%42%Chris Stewart
52%44%John Curtis
56%40%Burgess Owens

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Schott . Bryan . February 9, 2021 . In fundraising appeal, Sen. Mike Lee claims the anti-Trump Lincoln Project is gunning for him next year . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210309025124/https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2021/02/09/fundraising-appeal-sen/ . March 9, 2021 . March 14, 2021 . The Salt Lake Tribune.
  2. Web site: Archived copy . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210715070108/https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/712/202101289413832712/202101289413832712.pdf . July 15, 2021 . February 24, 2021.
  3. Web site: 2021-05-27 . Edwards to challenge Lee for U.S. Senate seat . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210527175522/https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/edwards-to-challenge-lee-for-u-s-senate-seat . May 27, 2021 . May 27, 2021 . Fox 13 News.
  4. Web site: Meet Ally Isom, the latest Republican seeking to defeat Utah Sen. Mike Lee in 2022 . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210715060511/https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2021/07/01/meet-ally-isom-latest/ . July 15, 2021 . July 15, 2021 . The Salt Lake Tribune.
  5. News: Vandenack. Tim. February 10, 2022. WSU prof vying for US Senate switches to GOP, cites McMullin entry. Standard-Examiner.
  6. Web site: A stampede of candidates running for office as Utah's filing period ends. The Salt Lake Tribune. March 9, 2022.
  7. News: Vandenack. Tim. US Senate hopeful Kael Weston says his candidacy gives voters a choice. March 1, 2022. Standard-Examiner.
  8. News: US Senate candidate Becky Edwards visits Southern Utah during campaign to unseat Mike Lee. 2021-11-24. St George News.
  9. Web site: Ty Jensen Pledges to Support Term Limits on Congress. January 18, 2022. U.S. Term Limits. November 10, 2021. November 10, 2021.
  10. News: Richards. Connor. 2021-03-08. Utah County Republican announces 2022 U.S. Senate run. Daily Herald. live. limited. 2021-05-16. https://web.archive.org/web/20210316105806/https://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/utah-county-republican-announces-2022-u-s-senate-run/article_f5245471-3ccd-55dc-9bab-fbe77f508d43.html. 2021-03-16. Brendan Wright, of Lehi, announced on Saturday, March 6 that he is running in 2022 for the U.S. Senate seat currently filled by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah..
  11. News: Schott. Bryan. 2021-04-05. A way too early look at the 2022 U.S. Senate race in Utah and Sen. Mike Lee's possible challengers. The Salt Lake Tribune. live. 2021-05-16. https://web.archive.org/web/20210419033200/https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2021/04/05/way-too-early-look-us/. 2021-04-19.
  12. News: Epstein. Harrison. January 31, 2022. Edwards campaign gathering signatures across state for Senate run. Standard-Examiner. Daily Herald. live. February 9, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220131194921/https://www.standard.net/news/government/2022/jan/31/edwards-campaign-gathering-signatures-across-state-for-senate-run/. January 31, 2022.
  13. Web site: Webb . LaVarr . Analysis: GOP hopefuls are testing the water against Mike Lee in 2022 . Utah Policy . March 8, 2021 . March 8, 2021 . March 8, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210308201230/https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/26537-analysis-gop-hopefuls-are-testing-the-water-against-mike-lee-in-2022 . live .
  14. Web site: Webb . LaVarr . Opinion briefs: Senate race attracts a crowd . . . National monuments battle . . . federalism & minimum wage . Utah Policy . March 15, 2021 . March 12, 2021 . March 14, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210314223508/https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/26607-opinion-briefs-senate-race-attracts-a-crowd-national-monuments-battle-federalism-minimum-wage . live .
  15. Web site: County Conventions. March 31, 2022. Utah Democratic Party. en-US. March 24, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220324232335/https://utahdemocrats.org/countyconventions/. dead.
  16. McKellar . Katie . KatieMcKellar1 . 1517988035895328769 . April 23, 2022 . @UtahDemocrats BREAKING: Option 1, to nominate @KaelWeston got 595 votes. Option 2, to join @EvanMcMullin got over 700 votes. @UtahDemocrats delegates have voted to NOT put forth own candidate #utpol . en . May 15, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220424092535/https://twitter.com/KatieMcKellar1/status/1517988035895328769 . April 24, 2022 . live.
  17. Web site: Kael Weston: Utah's people and land deserve better protections. The Salt Lake Tribune. January 27, 2022.
  18. Web site: Austin Searle isn't challenging Sen. Mike Lee and says viral tweet wasn't 'grifting'. The Salt Lake Tribune. March 10, 2022.
  19. Glines . Allen . Allen Glines . AllenBGlines . 1501305985545039872 . March 8, 2022 . Today I ended my campaign because I needed to attend to a family matter. I appreciate everyone's support. My website is now down and my ActBlue account is discontinued. Once I'm able, I'll be back to continue to fight for the causes I believe in. I hope you'll join me. . en . May 15, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220310024738/https://twitter.com/allenbglines/status/1501305985545039872 . March 10, 2022 . live.
  20. Web site: He's Black. He's a returned missionary. He's LGBTQ. And he's challenging Utah Sen. Mike Lee. 2021-10-06. Desert News. October 7, 2021. October 7, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211007131757/https://www.deseret.com/platform/amp/utah/2021/10/6/22671532/black-returned-missionary-lgbtq-challenging-mike-lee-senate-election-utah-mormon-mitchell-democrat. live.
  21. Web site: Utah Rep. Ben McAdams warns Democrats not to move too far to the left. The Salt Lake Tribune. January 25, 2021. January 21, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210121234957/https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/12/07/utah-rep-ben-mcadams/. live.
  22. Web site: Founder of anti-Trump Lincoln Project registers as a Utah Democrat. The Salt Lake Tribune. January 25, 2021. January 22, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210122073316/https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/12/22/founder-anti-trump/. live.
  23. News: Whitehurst. Lindsay. April 23, 2022. Utah Democrats back independent as US Senate candidate. Associated Press. live. April 24, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220424021411/https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-utah-primary-mike-lee-8dae5f0e03d16b97495798c2b06c4da6. April 24, 2022.
  24. News: Bojórquez. Kim. April 23, 2022. Utah Democrats back independent Evan McMullin for U.S. Senate in a historic vote. The Salt Lake Tribune. live. April 24, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220424020724/https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2022/04/23/saturdays-utah-democratic/. April 24, 2022.
  25. News: McKellar. Katie. April 23, 2022. How bad do Utah Democrats want Mike Lee out? Bad enough to ditch their own nominee and back Evan McMullin instead. Deseret News. live. April 24, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220424020409/https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/4/23/23037939/mike-lee-evan-mcmullin-utah-democrat-party-convention-results-senate-election-kael-weston. April 24, 2022.
  26. Hansen . James . JamesArtHansen . 1512923950916939776 . April 9, 2022 . Happy to accept the Utah Libertarian Party nomination for the US Senate! #libertarianutah #utpol #jimmyforutah https://t.co/XQkYFdgPxP . en . May 15, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220426001425/https://twitter.com/jamesarthansen/status/1512923950916939776 . April 26, 2022 . live.
  27. Web site: Our Campaigns - UT US Senate - LBT Convention Race - Apr 09, 2022 . 2022-04-26 . www.ourcampaigns.com.
  28. Web site: 2022 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections . 2022-03-17 . elections.utah.gov . May 13, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220513132218/https://elections.utah.gov/2022-candidate-filings . dead .
  29. Web site: Forgey . Quint . Evan McMullin announces Utah Senate bid . Politico . 5 October 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211005210615/https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/05/evan-mcmullin-utah-senate-bid-515129 . October 5, 2021 . en . 5 October 2021 . dead .
  30. News: Vandenack. Tim. August 23, 2021. Weber State professor launches U.S. Senate bid to unseat Lee. Standard-Examiner. live. September 15, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210826101340/https://www.standard.net/news/local/2021/aug/23/weber-state-professor-launches-u-s-senate-bid-to-unseat-lee/. August 26, 2021.
  31. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . January 14, 2021.
  32. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  33. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  34. Web site: Utah Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  35. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  36. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . September 20, 2022 . September 20, 2022.
  37. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  38. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  39. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
  40. AGavulic17. 1639066637641850880. Last November, incumbent R Mike Lee defeated Dem-endorsed Independent Evan McMullin by just over 10 points in the Utah Senate race. In a show of how effective the GOP crack of SLC is, Lee won all 4 CDs by roughly equal margins, despite McMullin winning SL County by 19 points.