2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma explained

2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma should not be confused with 2022 Oklahoma Senate election.

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
Next Year:2028
Image1:James Lankford official portrait, 118th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:James Lankford
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:739,960
Percentage1:64.30%
Nominee2:Madison Horn
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:369,370
Percentage2:32.10%
U.S. senator
Before Election:James Lankford
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:James Lankford
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma. Incumbent senator James Lankford won re-election to a second full term, defeating cybersecurity professional Madison Horn (no relation to former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn, who ran for the concurrent special election to the Class II seat) in a landslide, winning all 77 counties with more than 50% of the vote in each.

Lankford was first elected in 2014 special election with 68% of the vote, succeeding retiring fellow Republican Tom Coburn.[1] He won re-election to a first full term in 2016 with 68% of the vote.[2]

The primary elections for the Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian parties' nominations took place on June 28, 2022, with runoffs taking place on August 23, 2022.[3] All candidates had to file between the days of April 13–15, 2022.

Despite his comfortable victory, with slightly over 64% of the vote received this was Lankford's worst performance in his career, as in each of his previous two elections he won nearly 68%. This also marked the best performance by a Democratic candidate since 2004 in the Class III seat.

Republican primary

On March 16, 2021, Jackson Lahmeyer announced his campaign for the Republican nomination for United States Senate seat held by James Lankford. While Lankford had not formally announced, he was expected to run for reelection. On April 6, Lankford officially announced he would seek reelection in an interview with the Tulsa World. The Oklahoman reported that Joan Farr announced her candidacy for the Oklahoma and Kansas U.S. Senate seats sometime in August. On September 28, state senator Nathan Dahm announced his campaign for Lankford's seat. In November the Tulsa World reported that Jessica Jean Garrison, the daughter of former state senator Earl Garrison, would also campaign in the contested Republican primary. On February 28, 2022, Nathan Dahm announced he had switched his campaign to the special election in the Class 2 seat. Jessica Jean Garrison also switched her campaign to the special election when filing. Lankford won the June primary with 67% of the vote.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew before filing

Endorsements

James Lankford and Jackson Lahmeyer courted the endorsement of Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States, but Trump did not endorse a candidate prior to the primary.[9] [10]

On June 29, 2021, Lankford's campaign published its supposed endorsement by state representative Kevin McDugle. McDugle later went on social media claiming to have never made the endorsement; Lankford's campaign subsequently removed his name from their endorsement list.

Debates

The Oil & Gas Workers Association of Oklahoma offered to host a debate for the Republican primary. Invitations were extended to candidates Jackson Lahmeyer and James Lankford, but Lankford refused the invitation.[11]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joan
Farr
Jackson
Lahmeyer
James
Lankford
OtherUndecided
Amber Integrated (R)June 6–9, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%4%12%68%15%
SoonerPollApril 25 – May 11, 2022306 (LV)± 5.6%2%8%74%16%
Amber Integrated (R)March 24–27, 2022455 (LV)± 4.6%0%10%63%3%24%
Amber Integrated (R)December 15–19, 2021253 (RV)± 6.2%8%56%12%24%
Amber Integrated (R)September 29 – October 3, 2021253 (RV)± 6.2%21%62%4%12%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in initial primary

Failed to file

Declined

First round

Results

Runoff

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[20] November 19, 2021
align=left Inside Elections[21] January 7, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] November 3, 2021
Politico[23] April 1, 2022
RCP[24] January 10, 2022
align=left Fox News[25] May 12, 2022
DDHQ[26] July 20, 2022
538[27] June 30, 2022
The Economist[28] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
James
Lankford (R)
Madison
Horn (D)
Other
Margin
FiveThirtyEightSeptember 15 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202256.9%34.9%8.2%Lankford +22.0
270towinOctober 11 - November 7, 2022November 7, 202254.3%36.8%8.9%Lankford +17.5
Average55.6%35.8%8.6%Lankford +19.8
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
James
Lankford (R)
Madison
Horn (D)
OtherUndecided
Ascend Action (R)November 5–6, 2022682 (LV)± 3.8%56%36%3%4%
Amber Integrated (R)October 26–28, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%52%38%7%3%
Emerson CollegeOctober 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%57%33%3%8%
62%34%4%
Ascend Action (R)October 24–28, 2022749 (LV)± 3.6%51%35%5%9%
Amber Integrated (R)October 13–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%36%7%4%
Ascend Action (R)October 10–12, 2022638 (LV)± 3.9%51%37%3%9%
SoonerPollOctober 3–6, 2022301 (LV)52%40%2%6%
Amber Integrated (R)September 19–21, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%34%14%
–(L)September 15–18, 20222,989 (LV)± 3.2%49%27%11%13%
SoonerPollSeptember 2–7, 2022402 (LV)± 4.9%52%35%4%13%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022522 (RV)± 6.3%59%29%12%

Results

By congressional district

Lankford won all 5 congressional districts.[29]

DistrictLankfordHornRepresentative
59.0%37.6%Kevin Hern
73.3%23.3%Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress)
Josh Brecheen (118th Congress)
70.1%26.2%Frank Lucas
63.1%33.0%Tom Cole
57.6%38.9%Stephanie Bice

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 4, 2014 . March 25, 2021 . Oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board . April 8, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210408200906/https://oklahoma.gov/elections/support/2014/20141104-seb.html . dead .
  2. Web site: Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 8, 2016 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20210408195630/https://oklahoma.gov/elections/support/2016/20161108-seb.html . April 8, 2021 . March 25, 2021 . Oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board.
  3. Web site: 2022 Statutory Election Dates and Deadlines . oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board . October 13, 2021 . April 25, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220425080130/https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/elections/dates-and-deadlines/2022-statutory-dates-deadlines.pdf . dead .
  4. News: Krehbiel . Randy . Sen. Lankford says reelection bid will be about him being him . April 7, 2021 . Tulsa World . April 6, 2021.
  5. News: Casteel . Chris . State senator Nathan Dahm joins race against incumbent Sen. James Lankford . September 29, 2021 . The Oklahoman . September 28, 2021.
  6. News: Krehbiel. Randy. March 17, 2021. Tulsa pastor challenges Lankford for Senate with boost from Trump loyalist Michael Flynn. English. Tulsa World. March 19, 2021.
  7. News: Canfield . Kevin . Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat . February 28, 2022 . Tulsa World . February 28, 2022.
  8. News: Krehbiel . Randy . Political notebook: State and local officials awaiting details on infrastructure bill money . November 14, 2021 . Tulsa World . November 14, 2021.
  9. News: Swan . Jonathan . Kissing the ring: Inside the GOP courtship of Trump's endorsement . March 21, 2021 . Axios . March 17, 2021.
  10. News: Mantyla . Kyle . Right Wing Bonus Tracks: The Dumb Vote . January 4, 2022 . Right Wing Watch . December 14, 2021.
  11. News: Casteel . Chris . Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford says he won't debate Jackson Lahmeyer, calls appeals a 'sideshow' . March 19, 2022 . The Oklahoman . March 19, 2022.
  12. News: Meet Madison Horn, the self-described "Conservative Democrat" running for US Senate in Oklahoma . December 11, 2021 . KRMG . November 7, 2021.
  13. News: Krehbiel . Randy . Democrat Jason Bollinger enters U.S. Senate race . October 1, 2021 . Tulsa World . October 1, 2021.
  14. News: Krehbiel . Randy . Sen. James Lankford wins GOP primary in race for second term . June 29, 2022 . Tulsa World . June 28, 2022.
  15. Web site: CANDIDATES FOR ELECTIVE OFFICE 2022 . oklahoma.gov . Oklahoma State Election Board . April 16, 2022 . May 23, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220523031757/https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/elections/candidate-filing-archives/2022-candidate-filing-archives/2022listbook.pdf . dead .
  16. News: Krehbiel . Randy . Political notebook: Veterans and ivermectin on lawmakers' radar . January 30, 2022 . Tulsa World . January 30, 2022.
  17. News: Democratic Oklahoma City attorney jumps into US Senate race . October 1, 2021 . AP . Tulsa World . September 30, 2021 . October 1, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211001181843/https://tulsaworld.com/ap/state/democratic-oklahoma-city-attorney-jumps-into-us-senate-race/article_b6b48361-a25d-516a-a41e-1358af2de0d8.html . dead .
  18. Web site: World . Randy Krehbiel and Kevin Canfield Tulsa . Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat . 2022-03-01 . Tulsa World . February 28, 2022 . en.
  19. Web site: Kendra Horn files for Jim Inhofe's Senate seat. Casteel. Chris. March 15, 2022. March 15, 2022. The Oklahoman.
  20. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . January 14, 2021.
  21. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  22. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  23. Web site: Oklahoma Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022. Politico.
  24. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  25. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
  26. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  27. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  28. News: The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast . The Economist . September 18, 2022 . September 18, 2022.
  29. Results . docs.google.com .