2022 United States Senate election in Iowa explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
Country:Iowa
Type:presidential
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Iowa
Next Year:2028
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:File:Chuck Grassley official photo 2017 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Chuck Grassley
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:681,501
Percentage1:56.01%
Nominee2:Michael Franken
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:533,330
Percentage2:43.84%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Chuck Grassley
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Chuck Grassley
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic nominee Michael Franken to win re-election to an eighth term.[1]

Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term. With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on January 3, 2023, upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on January 4, 2023, he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since January 3, 2023.

Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980 and the first election since that time in which he did not crack 60% of the vote. Franken also beat Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley had won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County. This election also sought the Class III seat's worst performance by a Republican since 1962, and best performance by a Democrat since 1980.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Chuck Grassley$6,881,288Coverage ending: May 18, 2022
Jim Carlin$508,308Coverage ending: May 18, 2022

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List.[22] However, in an upset, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials.[22]

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Abby Finkenauer$3,740,881Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[23]
Michael Franken$2,863,882Coverage ending: May 18, 2022
Glenn Hurst$129,618Coverage ending: May 18, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Abby
Finkenauer
Michael
Franken
Glenn
Hurst
Undecided
Change Research (D)May 4–8, 2022866 (LV)± 4.0%40%42%4%14%
Change Research (D)April 6–11, 2022416 (LV)± 6.3%53%26%7%14%
GBAO (D)March 30 – April 3, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%64%15%6%15%

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[24] November 7, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[25] August 25, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] August 31, 2022
Politico[27] October 18, 2022
RCP[28] October 15, 2022
align=left Fox News[29] August 22, 2022
DDHQ[30] July 20, 2022
538[31] September 6, 2022
The Economist[32] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Michael
Franken (D)
Undecided
Margin
FiveThirtyEightOctober 2 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202251.8%42.2%6.0%Grassley +9.6
270towinOctober 26 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202253.0%42.7%4.3%Grassley +10.3
Average52.4%42.5%5.1%Grassley +9.9
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Michael
Franken (D)
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co.October 31 – November 3, 2022801 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%4%2%
Cygnal (R)October 26–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%43%3%
CiviqsOctober 22–25, 2022623 (LV)± 5.2%52%44%3%2%
The Tarrance Group (R)October 15–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%53%42%4%
Change Research (D)October 14–18, 20221,008 (LV)± 3.3%48%45%6%
Selzer & Co.October 9–12, 2022620 (LV)± 3.9%46%43%8%3%
Emerson CollegeOctober 2–4, 2022959 (LV)± 3.1%49%38%4%9%
Cygnal (R)October 2–4, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%40%6%
Change Research (D) September 3–8, 20221,143 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Cygnal (R)July 13–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%52%43%5%
Selzer & Co.July 10–13, 2022597 (LV)± 4.0%47%39%7%5%
Change Research (D)June 30 – July 4, 20221,488 (LV)± 2.7%49%44%7%
Change Research (D) April 6–11, 20221,070 (LV)± 4.0%45%42%13%
Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Abby
Finkenauer (D)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R)March 8–13, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%45%36%6%14%
Cygnal (R) February 20–22, 2022610 (LV)± 3.9%53%39%8%
Data for Progress (D)December 2–13, 2021770 (LV)± 4.0%53%39%8%
Cygnal (R)October 18–19, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
Selzer & Co.September 12–15, 2021620 (LV)± 3.9%55%37%1%7%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grassley won all 4 congressional districts.[33]

DistrictGrassleyFrankenRepresentative
53%47%Mariannette Miller-Meeks
55%45%Ashley Hinson
51%48%Cindy Axne (117th Congress)
Zach Nunn (118th Congress)
66%34%Randy Feenstra

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Chuck Grassley Defeats Mike Franken, Wins Eighth Senate Term . November 9, 2022 . nz.news.yahoo.com . November 9, 2022 . en-NZ.
  2. Web site: September 24, 2021. Grassley will seek reelection, boosting GOP's majority hopes. September 24, 2021. Politico. en.
  3. Web site: Hall. Jacob. February 12, 2021. BREAKING: State Sen. Jim Carlin is running for United States Senate seat currently held by Chuck Grassley, says if our votes do not count, we no longer have a representative government. February 15, 2021. The Iowa Standard. en-US.
  4. Web site: Dunlap . Natalie . Rep. Ashley Hinson announces reelection campaign, with support of Iowa Republicans, Sen. Ted Cruz . www.dailyiowan.com . The Daily Iowan . August 29, 2021.
  5. News: Belin. Laura. February 20, 2020. Chuck Grassley says grandson's "never expressed" interest in U.S. Senate bid. Bleeding Heartland. September 14, 2020.
  6. Web site: Lee-Gazette Des Moines Bureau . Grassley endorsed by Iowans who worked in Trump administration . wcfcourier.com . The Courier . November 30, 2021 . November 24, 2021.
  7. News: Lynch. James Q.. March 15, 2021. Iowa Democrat group looks to draft retired admiral Mike Franken to challenge Chuck Grassley. en. The Gazette. April 3, 2021.
  8. Web site: Can't let the "philosophically unhinged" win control of Senate. August 3, 2021. www.thegazette.com. en-US.
  9. Web site: Michael Franken launches US Senate campaign challenging Chuck Grassley. We Are Iowa. October 14, 2021. October 14, 2021.
  10. News: Gruber-Miller. Stephen. U.S. Senate candidate Abby Finkenauer will appear on primary ballot, Iowa Supreme Court rules. April 15, 2022. April 15, 2022. Des Moines Register. en.
  11. News: Gruber-Miller. Stephen. July 29, 2021. Democrat Glenn Hurst, a rural Iowa doctor and city council member, is running for U.S. Senate. The Des Moines Register. Gannett. live. limited. September 24, 2021. https://archive.today/20210924111615/https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/07/29/rural-iowa-doctor-running-us-senate-democrat-glenn-hurst-against-republican-chuck-grassley-election/5395391001/. September 24, 2021.
  12. Web site: Pfannenstiel . Brianne . Bob Krause to run for U.S. Senate, aiming for Chuck Grassley's seat . October 7, 2021 . www.desmoinesregister.com . Des Moines Register.
  13. Web site: March 14, 2022 . March 17, 2022 . Krause withdraws from Iowa Senate Race. . live . KCRG. https://web.archive.org/web/20220314131837/https://www.kcrg.com/2022/03/14/krause-withdraws-iowa-senate-race/ . March 14, 2022 .
  14. Web site: June 2, 2022. Mike Franken has the right experience, perspective. June 2, 2022. Bleeding Heartland. en-US.
  15. Web site: November 23, 2021. Dave Muhlbauer drops out of 2022 Senate race. November 23, 2021. The Gazette. en-US.
  16. Web site: Greenwood. Max. May 24, 2021. First Democrat announces Senate bid against Iowa's Grassley. May 24, 2021. TheHill.
  17. Web site: April 19, 2022. Campaign Almanac: Ashley's Army returns for 2022 race. May 17, 2022. The Gazette. en-US.
  18. Web site: Pfannenstiel. Brianne. Cindy Axne to endorse Abby Finkenauer for U.S. Senate — an indication she will not seek the seat herself. August 2, 2021. Des Moines Register. en-US.
  19. News: Mutnick. Ally. Arkin. James. May 27, 2021. Abby Finkenauer moves toward Iowa Senate run. Politico. May 27, 2021.
  20. News: Murphy . Erin . State Auditor Rob Sand considering run for Iowa governor or U.S. Senate . www.thegazette.com . April 23, 2021.
  21. Web site: Iowa Democrat J.D. Scholten won't seek office in 2022, narrowing field of possible contenders. MSN . en.
  22. Web site: What went right for Mike Franken and wrong for Abby Finkenauer. Bleeding Heartland. June 8, 2022. September 5, 2022.
  23. Web site: FEC Iowa Senate Candidate financial totals . FEC . May 26, 2022 . en.
  24. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . April 7, 2022.
  25. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  26. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  27. Web site: Iowa Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  28. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  29. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . August 22, 2022 . August 22, 2022.
  30. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  31. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  32. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
  33. Results . docs.google.com .