2022 United States Senate election in Illinois explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Illinois
Country:Illinois
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Illinois
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Illinois
Next Year:2028
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Nominee1:Tammy Duckworth
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:2,329,136
Percentage1:56.82%
Nominee2:Kathy Salvi
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,701,055
Percentage2:41.50%
U.S. senator
Before Election:Tammy Duckworth
Before Party:Democratic
After Election:Tammy Duckworth
After Party:Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.

Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Duckworth was re-elected for a second term against former U.S. House of Representatives candidate Kathy Salvi, the Republican nominee, winning by a margin of 15.3%, 0.2% more than her 2016 margin. Duckworth became the first woman ever to be re-elected for a second term in the state's history. This was the first Illinois U.S. Senate election where both major party candidates were female.

Salvi flipped seven counties—Calhoun, McDonough, Knox, Gallatin, Pulaski, Alexander, and Madison—that had voted for Duckworth in 2016. On the other hand, Duckworth won Kendall, McLean, Peoria, and Winnebago, which had all voted against her in 2016. With Duckworth's victory, this was the first time since 1986 that a Class 3 Illinois senator was re-elected to a successive six-year term, and the first time since 1992 that any party won the seat consecutively.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Casey
Chlebek
Matthew
Dubiel
Peggy
Hubbard
Maryann
Mahlen
Bobby
Piton
Kathy
Salvi

Tillman
Anthony
Williams
Undecided
Ogden & Fry (R)June 24, 2022518 (LV)± 4.4%1%6%11%2%3%20%2%0%53%
The Trafalgar Group (R)June 10–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 2.9%6%4%18%6%15%2%1%49%
Ogden & Fry (R)June 11–12, 2022662 (LV)± 3.9%1%4%9%2%4%17%1%1%62%
Public Policy Polling (D)June 6–7, 2022677 (LV)± 3.8%1%7%10%2%10%1%3%66%
Emerson CollegeMay 6–8, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%4%4%7%6%5%1%1%72%

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[16] March 4, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[17] April 1, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] March 1, 2022
Politico[19] April 1, 2022
RCP[20] October 26, 2022
align=left Fox News[21] May 12, 2022
DDHQ[22] July 20, 2022
538[23] June 30, 2022
The Economist[24] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Kathy
Salvi (R)
Undecided
Margin
FiveThirtyEightAugust 25 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202255.5%40.2%4.3%Duckworth +15.3
270towinOctober 14 – November 7, 2022November 8, 202251.6%36.4%12.0%Duckworth +15.2
Average53.6%38.3%8.1%Duckworth +15.3
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Kathy
Salvi (R)
OtherUndecided
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%55%38%2%5%
CiviqsOctober 22–25, 2022659 (LV)± 4.3%56%40%2%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 20–24, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%39%3%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 10–11, 2022770 (LV)± 3.5%50%36%5%9%
Research AmericaOctober 5–11, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.1%48%29%10%14%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%31%4%16%
Victory Geek (D)August 25–28, 2022512 (LV)± 4.3%58%35%7%
Victory Research (R)July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%43%34%2%20%
Tammy Duckworth vs. generic opponent

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Duckworth won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[25]

DistrictDuckworthSalviRepresentative
69.1%29.6%Bobby Rush (117th Congress)
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress)
68.9%29.7%Robin Kelly
68.9%29.5%Marie Newman (117th Congress)
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress)
69.9%28.3%Chuy García
70.4%28.2%Mike Quigley
55.3%43.1%Sean Casten
86%12.6%Danny Davis
56.3%42.1%Raja Krishnamoorthi
71.6%27%Jan Schakowsky
61.6%36.9%Brad Schneider
55.6%42.6%Bill Foster
29.4%68.7%Mike Bost
55.9%41.9%Nikki Budzinski
54.2%44%Lauren Underwood
32.2%65.6%Mary Miller
38.3%59.8%Darin LaHood
51.9%46.1%Cheri Bustos (117th Congress)
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress)

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: 2021-03-10 . US Sen. Tammy Duckworth announces re-election bid . en-US . Associated Press News . Chicago . live . 2021-04-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210311010343/https://apnews.com/article/cory-booker-mark-kirk-chicago-new-jersey-elections-018702d66dd210a986ddf8826894386c . Mar 11, 2021.
  2. News: Editorial: Kathy Salvi for the Republican primary for Tammy Duckworth's U.S. Senate seat . . 25 July 2022. June 8, 2022.
  3. Web site: Newsroom. Kathy Salvi Announces Run For U.S. Senate. March 14, 2022. wmay.com. March 14, 2022.
  4. News: Pfingsten. Patrick. Tracking Monday Candidate Filings. March 7, 2022. The Illinoize. March 7, 2022.
  5. Web site: Robb, Tom. Republican Candidates Welcomed In Niles. Journal & Topics. March 11, 2022. April 20, 2022.
  6. Web site: QAnon Follower Who Tried to Steal Arizona for Trump Is Running For Senate. VICE. 15 June 2021. 23 January 2022. Gilbert, David.
  7. Web site: 1st Congressional District Republican nominee: Jimmy Lee Tillman II . Chicago Sun Times. October 13, 2018.
  8. Web site: Southern Illinois Republican Hopes to Challenge Senator Duckworth. Trix. Herb. WVIK. July 12, 2021. November 22, 2021.
  9. News: Gough. Robert. Peggy Hubbard tries to break through. June 9, 2021. Muddy River News.
  10. Web site: Rafael Guerrero . Candidates file to run in Naperville Illinois House, Senate, Congressional primary races . Chicago Tribune . 2022-03-15 . 2022-04-14.
  11. News: Sheehan . Matt . 2021-03-24 . ON THE RECORD: Allison Salinas plans to challenge Sen. Duckworth's seat with focus on key issues . . live . 2021-04-25 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210325001315/https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/politics/on-the-record/on-the-record-allison-salinas-plans-to-challenge-sen-duckworth-on-immigration-education-healthcare/ . 2021-03-25.
  12. Web site: Illinois House deputy minority leader Demmer considering statewide run in 2022. Jerry. Nowicki. The State Journal-Register. December 18, 2020.
  13. Web site: Seils . Lizzie . Dixon Rep. Tom Demmer announces run for state treasurer . www.wifr.com . . 10 February 2022 . 11 January 2022.
  14. News: Sweet. Lynn. January 5, 2022. Rep. Kinzinger to focus on fighting right-wing extremism, won't run for governor or Senate. Chicago Sun-Times. live. January 6, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220105155541/https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2022/1/5/22868350/kinzinger-will-not-run-senator-governor-congress-january-6-capitol-attack-right-wing-extremism-trump. January 5, 2022.
  15. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . January 14, 2021.
  16. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  17. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  18. Web site: Illinois Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  19. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  20. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
  21. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  22. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  23. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
  24. Results . docs.google.com .