2022 United States Senate election in Illinois explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Illinois
Country:Illinois
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Illinois
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Illinois
Next Year:2028
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:File:Tammy Duckworth, official portrait, 115th Congress (cropped)2.jpg
Nominee1:Tammy Duckworth
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:2,329,136
Percentage1:56.82%
Nominee2:Kathy Salvi
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,701,055
Percentage2:41.50%
U.S. senator
Before Election:Tammy Duckworth
Before Party:Democratic
After Election:Tammy Duckworth
After Party:Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.

Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Duckworth was re-elected for a second term against former U.S. House of Representatives candidate Kathy Salvi, the Republican nominee, winning by a margin of 15.3%, 0.2% more than her 2016 margin. Duckworth became the first woman ever to be re-elected for a second term in the state's history. This was the first Illinois U.S. Senate election where both major party candidates were female.

Salvi flipped seven counties—Calhoun, McDonough, Knox, Gallatin, Pulaski, Alexander, and Madison—that had voted for Duckworth in 2016. On the other hand, Duckworth won Kendall, McLean, Peoria, and Winnebago, which had all voted against her in 2016. With Duckworth's victory, this was the first time since 1986 that a Class 3 Illinois senator was re-elected to a successive six-year term, and the first time since 1992 that any party won the seat consecutively.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Casey
Chlebek		Matthew
Dubiel		Peggy
Hubbard		Maryann
Mahlen		Bobby
Piton		Kathy
Salvi
Tillman		Anthony
Williams		Undecided
Ogden & Fry (R)[17] June 24, 2022518 (LV)± 4.4%1%6%11%2%3%20%2%0%53%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[18] June 10–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 2.9%6%4%18%–6%15%2%1%49%
Ogden & Fry (R)[19] June 11–12, 2022662 (LV)± 3.9%1%4%9%2%4%17%1%1%62%
Public Policy Polling (D)[20] June 6–7, 2022677 (LV)± 3.8%1%7%10%–2%10%1%3%66%
Emerson College[21] May 6–8, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%4%4%7%–6%5%1%1%72%

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[22] March 4, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[23] April 1, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] March 1, 2022
Politico[25] April 1, 2022
RCP[26] October 26, 2022
align=left Fox News[27] May 12, 2022
DDHQ[28] July 20, 2022
538[29] June 30, 2022
The Economist[30] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tammy
Duckworth (D)		Kathy
Salvi (R)		Undecided
Margin
FiveThirtyEight[31] August 25 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202255.5%40.2%4.3%Duckworth +15.3
270towin[32] October 14 – November 7, 2022November 8, 202251.6%36.4%12.0%Duckworth +15.2
Average53.6%38.3%8.1%Duckworth +15.3
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tammy
Duckworth (D)		Kathy
Salvi (R)		OtherUndecided
Research Co.[33] November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%55%38%2%5%
Civiqs[34] October 22–25, 2022659 (LV)± 4.3%56%40%2%2%
Emerson College[35] October 20–24, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%39%3%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[36] October 10–11, 2022770 (LV)± 3.5%50%36%5%9%
Research America[37] October 5–11, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.1%48%29%10%14%
Emerson College[38] September 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%31%4%16%
Victory Geek (D)[39] August 25–28, 2022512 (LV)± 4.3%58%35%–7%
Victory Research (R)[40] July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%43%34%2%20%

Tammy Duckworth vs. generic opponent

Results by County

County! colspan="2"
Tammy DuckworthDemocraticKathy SalviRepublicanVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal votes cast
data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %
Adams6,24425.04%18,34173.55%3511.41%-12,097-48.51%24,936
Alexander76444.76%93054.48%130.76%-166-9.72%1,707
Bond2,06132.24%4,19365.59%1392.17%-2,132-33.35%6,393
Boone7,02240.09%10,15757.98%3381.93%-3,135-17.89%17,517
Brown39420.77%1,47577.75%281.48%-1,081-56.98%1,897
Bureau5,02839.68%7,42958.63%2131.68%-2,401-18.95%12,670
Calhoun78933.85%1,48563.71%572.45%-696-29.86%2,331
Carroll2,03934.25%3,80463.90%1101.85%-1,765-29.65%5,953
Cass1,26032.04%2,58165.64%912.31%-1,321-33.60%3,932
Champaign40,75660.12%25,79138.04%1,2471.84%14,96522.08%67,794
Christian3,86531.13%8,22266.22%3302.66%-4,357-35.09%12,417
Clark1,48023.43%4,74575.13%911.44%-3,265-51.70%6,316
Clay1,08218.86%4,55479.38%1011.76%-3,472-60.52%5,737
Clinton3,85626.10%10,66272.17%2551.73%-6,806-46.07%14,773
Coles5,92435.93%10,27062.29%2931.78%-4,346-26.36%16,487
Cook1,080,17574.91%341,44723.68%20,3001.41%738,72851.23%1,441,922
Crawford1,68524.27%5,10073.46%1582.28%-3,415-49.19%6,943
Cumberland1,07722.61%3,60775.73%791.66%-2,530-53.12%4,763
DeKalb17,68851.27%16,06346.56%7472.17%1,6254.71%34,498
DeWitt1,78429.34%4,15268.29%1442.37%-2,638-38.95%6,080
Douglas1,80127.92%4,52970.21%1211.88%-2,728-42.29%6,451
DuPage194,60656.95%141,31641.35%5,8181.70%53,29015.60%341,740
Edgar1,58326.16%4,36172.06%1081.78%-2,778-45.90%6,052
Edwards44816.10%2,28081.93%551.98%-1,832-65.83%2,783
Effingham3,19020.14%12,40978.33%2931.53%-9,219-58.19%15,892
Fayette1,67820.96%6,19077.33%1371.71%-4,512-56.37%8,005
Ford1,38627.00%3,62170.53%1272.47%-2,235-43.53%5,134
Franklin3,90828.57%9,54569.77%2281.67%-5,637-41.20%13,681
Fulton5,68543.71%7,00953.89%3132.41%-1,324-10.18%13,007
Gallatin75334.78%1,37363.42%391.80%-620-28.64%2,165
Greene1,14425.29%3,29772.89%821.81%-2,153-47.60%4,523
Grundy7,68539.67%11,26658.16%4192.16%-3,581-18.49%19,370
Hamilton84424.84%2,50273.63%521.53%-1,658-48.79%3,398
Hancock1,87526.03%5,17771.88%1502.08%-3,302-45.85%7,202
Hardin40224.36%1,22073.94%281.70%-818-49.58%1,650
Henderson1,02035.06%1,81362.32%762.61%-793-27.26%2,909
Henry7,43037.81%11,83360.21%3891.98%-4,403-22.40%19,652
Iroquois2,22221.29%8,01876.82%1981.90%-5,796-55.53%10,438
Jackson9,10953.30%7,69345.02%2871.68%1,4168.28%17,089
Jasper86018.80%3,64579.67%701.53%-2,785-60.87%4,575
Jefferson3,73128.45%9,16369.86%2221.69%-5,432-41.41%13,116
Jersey2,64828.60%6,40269.14%2102.27%-3,754-40.54%9,260
Jo Daviess3,94341.66%5,35556.58%1671.76%-1,412-14.92%9,465
Johnson1,05221.86%3,69076.67%711.48%-2,638-54.81%4,813
Kane86,47754.75%68,77143.54%2,6931.71%17,70611.21%157,941
Kankakee14,81942.21%19,52255.61%7672.18%-4,703-13.40%35,108
Kendall23,15151.15%21,29447.04%8201.81%1,8574.11%45,265
Knox8,07245.95%9,13051.98%3642.07%-1,058-6.03%17,566
Lake138,58460.41%87,52938.15%3,3001.44%51,05522.26%229,413
LaSalle18,07645.67%20,80452.56%6981.76%-2,728-6.89%39,578
Lawrence1,17823.44%3,74574.53%1022.03%-2,567-51.09%5,025
Lee4,68539.04%7,11359.27%2041.70%-2,428-20.23%12,002
Livingston3,55427.77%9,02070.48%2241.75%-5,466-42.71%12,798
Logan2,88729.86%6,50867.31%2732.82%-3,621-37.45%9,668
Macon14,57341.35%20,04256.87%6281.78%-5,469-15.52%35,243
Macoupin6,37735.93%11,02562.12%3461.95%-4,648-26.19%17,748
Madison44,27345.17%51,85852.91%1,8831.92%-7,585-7.74%98,014
Marion3,40726.41%9,27271.89%2191.70%-5,865-45.48%12,898
Marshall1,64134.63%2,99763.25%1002.11%-1,356-28.62%4,738
Mason1,73935.01%3,13563.12%931.87%-1,396-28.11%4,967
Massac1,31727.09%3,47471.45%711.46%-2,157-44.36%4,862
McDonough3,79340.41%5,43457.89%1591.69%-1,641-17.48%9,386
McHenry56,05448.18%57,97449.83%2,3221.99%-1,920-1.65%116,350
McLean32,18849.65%31,35348.36%1,2861.98%8351.29%64,827
Menard1,65531.32%3,46965.65%1603.03%-1,814-34.33%5,284
Mercer2,55938.01%3,94558.60%2283.39%-1,386-20.59%6,732
Monroe5,19733.17%10,24065.35%2331.49%-5,043-32.18%15,670
Montgomery3,40732.17%6,95465.67%2282.15%-3,547-33.50%10,589
Morgan3,65633.15%7,12064.57%2512.28%-3,464-31.42%11,027
Moultrie1,44827.58%3,69470.36%1082.06%-2,246-42.78%5,250
Ogle6,92035.67%12,10562.39%3771.94%-5,185-26.72%19,402
Peoria30,88952.32%27,07145.86%1,0751.82%3,8186.46%59,035
Perry2,43331.36%5,20567.08%1211.56%-2,772-35.72%7,759
Piatt2,78336.55%4,65761.16%1752.30%-1,874-24.61%7,615
Pike1,30821.71%4,61176.54%1051.74%-3,303-54.83%6,024
Pope35721.69%1,26576.85%241.46%-908-55.16%1,646
Pulaski73036.76%1,23161.98%251.26%-501-25.22%1,986
Putnam1,23344.92%1,46453.33%481.75%-231-8.41%2,745
Randolph3,52731.14%7,61167.19%1891.67%-4,084-36.05%11,327
Richland1,46223.56%4,60874.26%1352.18%-3,146-50.70%6,205
Rock Island26,46955.18%20,54842.83%9551.99%5,92112.35%47,972
Saline2,35829.30%5,55469.02%1351.68%-3,196-39.72%8,047
Sangamon38,05647.77%39,38949.44%2,2212.79%-1,333-1.67%79,666
Schuyler1,00732.25%2,02764.93%882.82%-1,020-32.68%3,122
Scott46522.32%1,58876.24%301.44%-1,123-53.92%2,083
Shelby2,30423.83%7,17774.24%1861.92%-4,873-50.41%9,667
St. Clair47,63453.76%39,33544.39%1,6341.84%8,2999.37%88,603
Stark74232.12%1,49964.89%692.99%-757-32.77%2,310
Stephenson6,91441.54%9,39356.43%3372.02%-2,479-14.89%16,644
Tazewell19,02137.13%31,13560.78%1,1682.08%-12,114-23.65%51,324
Union2,31933.30%4,51464.81%1321.90%-2,195-31.51%6,965
Vermilion7,44533.90%14,13564.36%3821.74%-6,690-30.46%21,964
Wabash89922.26%3,08376.33%571.41%-2,184-54.07%4,039
Warren2,19837.55%3,54560.56%1111.90%-1,347-23.01%5,854
Washington1,42523.90%4,42474.19%1141.91%-2,999-50.29%5,963
Wayne1,05615.61%5,61082.93%991.46%-4,554-67.32%6,765
White1,27522.45%4,31676.00%881.55%-3,041-53.55%5,679
Whiteside8,77243.98%10,79254.11%3801.91%-2,020-10.13%19,944
Will122,18952.37%107,58146.11%3,5511.52%14,6086.26%233,321
Williamson8,06732.12%16,66566.36%3801.51%-8,598-34.24%25,112
Winnebago43,38449.30%42,97248.83%1,6461.87%4120.47%88,002
Woodford4,75228.16%11,80869.98%3131.86%-7,056-41.82%16,873
Totals2,329,13656.82%1,701,05541.50%68,7051.68%628,08115.32%4,098,896

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Duckworth won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[41]

DistrictDuckworthSalviRepresentative
69.1%29.6%Bobby Rush (117th Congress)
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress)
68.9%29.7%Robin Kelly
68.9%29.5%Marie Newman (117th Congress)
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress)
69.9%28.3%Chuy García
70.4%28.2%Mike Quigley
55.3%43.1%Sean Casten
86%12.6%Danny Davis
56.3%42.1%Raja Krishnamoorthi
71.6%27%Jan Schakowsky
61.6%36.9%Brad Schneider
55.6%42.6%Bill Foster
29.4%68.7%Mike Bost
55.9%41.9%Nikki Budzinski
54.2%44%Lauren Underwood
32.2%65.6%Mary Miller
38.3%59.8%Darin LaHood
51.9%46.1%Cheri Bustos (117th Congress)
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress)

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: 2021-03-10 . US Sen. Tammy Duckworth announces re-election bid . en-US . Associated Press News . Chicago . live . 2021-04-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210311010343/https://apnews.com/article/cory-booker-mark-kirk-chicago-new-jersey-elections-018702d66dd210a986ddf8826894386c . Mar 11, 2021.
  2. News: Editorial: Kathy Salvi for the Republican primary for Tammy Duckworth's U.S. Senate seat . . 25 July 2022. June 8, 2022.
  3. Web site: Kathy Salvi Announces Run For U.S. Senate. March 14, 2022. WMAY-FM. March 14, 2022.
  4. News: Pfingsten. Patrick. Tracking Monday Candidate Filings. March 7, 2022. The Illinoize. March 7, 2022.
  5. Web site: Robb, Tom. Republican Candidates Welcomed In Niles. Journal & Topics. March 11, 2022. April 20, 2022.
  6. Web site: QAnon Follower Who Tried to Steal Arizona for Trump Is Running For Senate. VICE. 15 June 2021. 23 January 2022. Gilbert, David.
  7. Web site: 1st Congressional District Republican nominee: Jimmy Lee Tillman II . Chicago Sun Times. October 13, 2018.
  8. Web site: Southern Illinois Republican Hopes to Challenge Senator Duckworth. Trix. Herb. WVIK. July 12, 2021. November 22, 2021.
  9. News: Gough. Robert. Peggy Hubbard tries to break through. June 9, 2021. Muddy River News.
  10. Web site: Rafael Guerrero . Candidates file to run in Naperville Illinois House, Senate, Congressional primary races . Chicago Tribune . 2022-03-15 . 2022-04-14.
  11. News: Sheehan . Matt . 2021-03-24 . ON THE RECORD: Allison Salinas plans to challenge Sen. Duckworth's seat with focus on key issues . . live . 2021-04-25 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210325001315/https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/politics/on-the-record/on-the-record-allison-salinas-plans-to-challenge-sen-duckworth-on-immigration-education-healthcare/ . 2021-03-25.
  12. Web site: Illinois House deputy minority leader Demmer considering statewide run in 2022. Jerry. Nowicki. The State Journal-Register. December 18, 2020.
  13. Web site: Seils . Lizzie . Dixon Rep. Tom Demmer announces run for state treasurer . www.wifr.com . . 10 February 2022 . 11 January 2022.
  15. News: Sweet. Lynn. January 5, 2022. Rep. Kinzinger to focus on fighting right-wing extremism, won't run for governor or Senate. Chicago Sun-Times. live. January 6, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220105155541/https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2022/1/5/22868350/kinzinger-will-not-run-senator-governor-congress-january-6-capitol-attack-right-wing-extremism-trump. January 5, 2022.
  16. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/il/illinois_senate_republican_primary-7645.html Real Clear Politics
  17. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-eLOGYUfb_GcVBSefzAxfftHqBbvPgYe/view Ogden & Fry (R)
  18. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/TRF-IL-GOP-0614-Poll-Report.pdf The Trafalgar Group (R)
  19. https://capitolfax.com/2022/06/13/new-poll-supposedly-has-bailey-ahead-of-irvin-by-14-points/ Ogden & Fry (R)
  20. https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2022/6/12/23160845/illinois-republican-primary-poll-senate-attorney-general-secretary-state-undecided Public Policy Polling (D)
  21. https://www.scribd.com/document/573674828/GOP-race-for-Illinois-governor-Emerson-Poll-results Emerson College
  22. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . January 14, 2021.
  23. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  24. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  25. Web site: Illinois Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  26. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  27. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
  28. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  29. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  30. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
  31. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/illinois/ FiveThirtyEight
  32. https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-polls/illinois 270towin
  33. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Tables_StateRaces_USA_07Nov2022.pdf#page=6 Research Co.
  34. https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_IL_banner_book_2022_10_d45afy.pdf Civiqs
  35. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/illinois-2022-democratic-incumbents-prtizker-and-duckworth-leads-shrink-as-republican-challengers-bailey-and-salvi-gain-support// Emerson College
  36. https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2022/10/14/23403342/poll-suntimes-wbez-pritzker-bailey-duckworth-salvi-general-election-november-governor-senate Public Policy Polling (D)
  37. https://files.constantcontact.com/84ddd16b001/e1b77591-2022-4f79-97b0-008bfba7506b.pdf?rdr=true Research America
  38. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/illinois-2022-democratic-gov-j-b-pritzker-and-sen-tammy-duckworth-in-strong-position-in-re-election-bids/ Emerson College
  39. https://theillinoize.substack.com/p/the-illinoize-exclusive-pritzker Victory Geek (D)
  40. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/072322_VictoryResearch_Illinois_Senate.pdf Victory Research (R)
  41. Results . docs.google.com .

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