2022 United States Senate election in Colorado explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Colorado
Country:Colorado
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Colorado
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Colorado
Next Year:2028
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:File:Michael Bennet by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Michael Bennet
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,397,170
Percentage1:55.88%
Nominee2:Joe O'Dea
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,031,693
Percentage2:41.26%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Michael Bennet
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Michael Bennet
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2022 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won reelection to a third term, defeating the Republican candidate, businessman Joe O'Dea. Originally appointed to the seat in 2009,[1] Bennet won full terms in 2010 and 2016.[2] [3]

Bennet won by nearly 15 points, significantly outperforming his polling. His margin was the highest for a Democrat in a Senate election in Colorado since 1974. This was the first time in Bennet's Senate career that he received a majority of the vote.

The election resulted in both the best performance by a Democrat, and the worst performance by a Republican in the Class 3 seat since 1974.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Bennet was appointed to the U.S. Senate in January 2009 by Governor Bill Ritter following the resignation of the incumbent Senator, Ken Salazar, who become the Secretary of the Interior under President Barack Obama. Bennet was then narrowly elected in 2010 for his first full term, defeating Representative Ken Buck with 48.08% of the vote. In the 2016 election, he was re-elected to a second term with 49.97% of the vote, defeating Republican El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn.

Due to some of his centrist positions, such as his opposition to Medicare for All and his support for fracking, Bennet faced a potential challenge from the left, particularly from Joe Salazar, a former state representative. Salazar ultimately opted to run for the Colorado State Senate, and thus Bennet was easily renominated at the Democratic convention.[4]

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

Declined

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Initially, a wide field of candidates declared their intention to seek the Republican nomination. However, instead of gathering the required number of signatures to be placed on the primary ballot, Bremer and most of the other candidates sought to earn the nomination by winning the required 30% of the delegate vote at the Colorado GOP convention in April 2022. As a result of the crowded field of candidates, delegate support was divided, with only State Representative Ron Hanks crossing the 30% threshold. Debora Flora, a radio show host, missed the ballot by a single percentage point, receiving 29% of the vote.[10]

With the other candidates eliminated, State Representative Ron Hanks and construction CEO Joe O'Dea were the only two candidates on the primary ballot. The contrast between the two Republicans was stark. Hanks supported a complete ban on abortion and echoed former president Donald Trump's assertions of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, while the more moderate O'Dea expressed support for LGBTQ rights, some abortion rights, and rejected Trump's claims of widespread voter fraud.[11]

Though O'Dea was initially considered the frontrunner as a result of his fundraising advantage, Hanks was buoyed by an attempt by Democrats to influence the primary. Democratic Colorado, an entity formed in June 2022, received roughly $4 million from the Senate Majority Fund, a PAC associated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. They ran ads characterizing Hanks as "too conservative", in order to elevate Hanks over O'Dea, who was perceived as a stronger general election candidate.[12] This attempt to interfere in the GOP primary was denounced by numerous former Colorado Democratic officials, including former governor Roy Romer, and former senators Mark Udall, Tim Wirth, and Gary Hart, who previously mounted unsuccessful attempts to win the Democratic nomination for president in 1984 and 1988.[13]

Despite the support from Democrats and his lobbying for the endorsement of Donald Trump, Hanks was defeated by O'Dea by a 9% margin. He performed best in rural parts of the state, while O'Dea was successful in urban areas, such as Denver.[14]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Withdrew

Declined

Results

General election

In recent years, Colorado has started voting more Democratic in the federal level, transitioning from a purple state to a moderately (and increasingly strongly) blue state, and the shift was largely contributed to the left-wing shift in the growing Denver metropolitan area, with President Joe Biden winning the state by 13.5% in the 2020 election, almost nine points to the left of the national result of around 4.9%. Prevailing in 2010, a year where Colorado was considered a swing state and Democrats performed very poorly, Bennet had a generally strong electoral history. He also outperformed Hillary Clinton on the same ballot in 2016. Ahead of 2022, Bennet was generally favored to win, though polling showed him as potentially vulnerable, largely due to the state of the economy and President Biden's low approval ratings.[33] Colorado had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Cory Gardner in 2014, another very strong year for Republicans nationwide and while Colorado was still considered a swing state, even then Gardner only won narrowly. Bennet ultimately won reelection by a comfortable 14.6 point margin, outperforming Biden's victory two years prior and his own polling averages. Bennet also flipped three counties he had lost in his 2016 re-election bid, flipping Grand County by a narrow 1.1% and Chaffee County, and Garfield County by wide margins. However, O'Dea did narrowly flip Conejos County by a slim 1%.[34]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[35] August 18, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[36] June 29, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] March 1, 2022
Politico[38] August 12, 2022
RCP[39] November 4, 2022
align=left Fox News[40] May 12, 2022
DDHQ[41] July 20, 2022
538[42] August 18, 2022
The Economist[43] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Michael
Bennet (D)		Joe
O'Dea (R)		Undecided
Margin
Real Clear Politics[44] October 26 – November 5, 2022November 7, 202250.0%44.3%5.7%Bennet +5.7
FiveThirtyEight[45] July 26 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202251.3%42.9%5.8%Bennet +8.4
270towin[46] November 1–7, 2022November 7, 202251.0%43.4%6.6%Bennet +6.6
Average50.8%43.5%5.7%Bennet +7.3

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Joe
O'Dea (R)		Brian
Peotter (L)		OtherUndecided
co/efficient (R)[47] November 3–7, 2022856 (LV)± 3.3%51%43%–3%3%
Data for Progress (D)[48] November 2–5, 20221,983 (LV)± 2.0%51%44%2%2%–
The Trafalgar Group (R)[49] October 30 – November 1, 20221,084 (LV)± 2.9%48%46%2%1%3%
Emerson College[50] October 26–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%42%2%3%5%
51%43%2%3%–
co/efficient (R)[51] October 24–25, 2022826 (LV)± 3.4%50%34%–6%10%
CU Boulder/YouGov[52] October 11–19, 2022709 (LV)± 4.4%56%42%–2%–
Civiqs[53] October 15–18, 2022600 (LV)± 5.0%54%41%–2%3%
Global Strategy Group (D)[54] October 6–11, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%49%38%7%–7%
52%42%––6%
Marist College[55] October 3–6, 20221,127 (RV)± 4.7%48%41%–2%9%
983 (LV)± 5.0%49%43%–2%7%
Data for Progress (D)[56] October 3–6, 20221,005 (LV)± 3.0%50%41%3%1%5%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[57] September 20–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%46%45%–4%5%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies[58] September 18–26, 20221,060 (LV)± 3.0%46%36%––18%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[59] September 20–24, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%49%43%4%<1%5%
Emerson College[60] September 18–19, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%36%–4%14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[61] August 30–31, 2022782 (V)± 3.5%46%35%7%–12%
The Tarrance Group (R)[62] August 22–25, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%48%47%––5%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[63] August 15–19, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%47%42%5%1%5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[64] July 24–26, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%40%––12%
Global Strategy Group (D)[65] June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%49%36%––14%
Michael Bennet vs. Ron Hanks
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Ron
Hanks (R)		Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%50%37%13%
Global Strategy Group (D)[66] October 19–24, 2021400 (RV)± 4.9%52%34%13%

Michael Bennet vs. Eli Bremer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Eli
Bremer (R)		Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)October 19–24, 2021400 (RV)± 4.9%48%35%17%
co/efficient (R)[67] September 9–12, 2021742 (LV)± 3.6%40%32%22%
Michael Bennet vs. Gino Campana
Michael Bennet vs. Lauren Boebert
Michael Bennet vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Michael
Bennet (D)		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[70] June 2–8, 2022800 (RV)± 3.4%49%37%14%
Cygnal (R)[71] January 12–13, 2022630 (LV)± 3.9%45%46%9%
Global Strategy Group (D)June 17–23, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%48%40%12%
Michael Bennet vs. generic opponent
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bennet won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[73]

DistrictBennetO'DeaRepresentative
80%18%Diana DeGette
69%28%Joe Neguse
48%49%Lauren Boebert
40%57%Ken Buck
44%52%Doug Lamborn
60%38%Jason Crow
57%40%Ed Perlmutter (117th Congress)
Brittany Pettersen (118th Congress)
50%46%Yadira Caraveo

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Alexander Burns . Bennet to replace Salazar in Senate . 2022-09-16 . POLITICO . January 2, 2009 . en.
  2. Web site: Colorado - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times . 2022-09-16 . www.nytimes.com.
  3. Web site: Official Certified Results November 8, 2016 General Election . 2022-09-16 . results.enr.clarityelections.com.
  4. Web site: 'This is a Bernie state': Joe Salazar considering run against Bennet in 2022 Democratic primary . January 23, 2021 .
  5. Web site: Michael Bennet says he won't be Joe Biden's education secretary. Justin. Wingerter. The Denver Post. November 3, 2020.
  6. News: Burness. Alex. Wingerter. Justin. August 12, 2021. The Spot: Heidi Ganahl all but says she's running for governor. The Denver Post. live. September 3, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210830002135/https://www.denverpost.com/2021/08/12/the-spot-heidi-ganahl-governor-colorado/. August 30, 2021.
  7. Web site: 'This is a Bernie state': Joe Salazar considering run against Bennet in 2022 Democratic primary. Ernest. Luning. The Colorado Springs Gazette. January 23, 2021.
  8. Web site: Democrat Joe Salazar says he won't run in Colorado's new congressional district. ERNEST LUNING. ernest.luning@coloradopolitics.com. Colorado Politics. September 16, 2021 .
  9. Web site: Democrat Joe Salazar files to run for state Senate in open Adams County district. November 5, 2021 .
  10. Web site: Ron Hanks, who questions 2020 election results, beats 5 other candidates to make Colorado's Republican U.S. Senate primary ballot . April 9, 2022 .
  11. Web site: 2022-06-29 . Republican Joe O'Dea, who supports some abortion rights, wins Colorado Senate primary . 2024-08-30 . NBC News . en.
  12. Web site: Filing reveals Schumer-aligned PAC funded ads that boosted Ron Hanks in Colorado's GOP primary . July 23, 2022 .
  13. Web site: Democratic leaders call party mates' tactics to boost Ron Hanks, others during primary 'unethical' . August 2022 .
  14. Web site: Live Colorado Senate Election Results 2022 – NBC News . .
  15. News: Sealover. Ed. October 8, 2021. Denver construction CEO enters Republican US Senate primary. Denver Business Journal. live. October 9, 2021. https://archive.today/20211009083611/https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2021/10/08/joe-odea-concrete-express-colorado-senate-bennet.html. October 9, 2021.
  16. News: A Surprise Senate Race Rises Out West . Carl. Hulse . August 30, 2022 . . subscription.
  17. https://coloradosun.com/2022/06/28/colorado-senate-results-ron-hanks-joe-odea/ Joe O’Dea beats Ron Hanks in Colorado’s Republican U.S. Senate primary
  18. https://coloradosun.com/2022/06/22/littwin-senate-hanks-odea-opinion/ In debate between Senate hopefuls Ron Hanks and Joe O’Dea, it’s hardcore vs. softcore
  19. https://coloradosun.com/2022/08/19/joe-odea-abortion-ban-22-weeks-vote/ U.S. Senate candidate Joe O’Dea believes abortions should be legal through 20 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions after
  20. https://coloradosun.com/2022/09/23/tv-ads-attacking-joe-odea-colorado-senate/ $5 million in TV ads attacking Joe O’Dea in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race are hitting the airwaves
  21. Web site: Fish . Sandra . Paul . Jesse . Ron Hanks files to run for U.S. Senate in Colorado . October 2021 . . October 1, 2021.
  22. Web site: Paul . Jesse . Najmabadi . Shannon . Fish . Sandra . Ron Hanks beats 5 other candidates to make Colorado's Republican U.S. Senate primary ballot . The Colorado Sun . April 10, 2022 . en . April 9, 2022.
  23. Web site: Luning. Ernest. April 4, 2022. Joe O'Dea makes Colorado's Republican US Senate primary ballot by petition. April 30, 2022. www.coloradopolitics.com. The Colorado Statesman. en-US.
  24. Web site: Luning. Ernest. December 27, 2021. Republican Erik Aadland jumps from US Senate race to take on Perlmutter in CD 7. December 27, 2021. www.coloradopolitics.com. The Colorado Statesman. en-US.
  25. Web site: Recently minted Republican challenges Michael Bennet for Colorado Senate seat. Colorado Politics. June 8, 2021 .
  26. News: Ken Buck says he will not challenge Michael Bennet in 2022 Senate race. The Colorado Sun. January 28, 2021. January 29, 2021. Paul. Jesse.
  27. Web site: 2021-09-14. Republican Heidi Ganahl formally announces bid in 2022 Colorado governor's race. 2021-09-17. KMGH. en.
  28. Web site: Home . darrylglenn4colorado.com.
  29. Web site: ernest.luning@coloradopolitics.com . ERNEST LUNING . TRAIL MIX Next year's top-ticket GOP challengers remain a mystery . 2023-02-24 . Colorado Politics . June 11, 2021 . en.
  30. Web site: Colorado's only Republican governor elected within last 50 years says presidential race is over. Marshall. Zellinger. November 23, 2020. KUSA.
  31. News: Reid . Trevor . 2021-04-01 . Weld Sheriff Steve Reams announces run for third term . en-US . . live . 2021-06-15 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210526044622/https://www.greeleytribune.com/2021/04/01/weld-sheriff-steve-reams-announces-run-for-third-term/ . 2021-05-26.
  32. https://coloradosun.com/2022/06/06/colorado-senate-primary-hanks-odea/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  33. Web site: Paul . Jesse . Fish . Sandra . Nelson . Delaney . 2022-11-09 . Michael Bennet elected to his third U.S. Senate term as Colorado voters reject Republican Joe O'Dea . 2023-08-09 . . en-US.
  34. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . 2023-08-27 . uselectionatlas.org.
  35. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . January 14, 2021.
  36. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  37. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  38. Web site: Colorado Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  39. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  40. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
  41. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  42. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  43. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
  44. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/co/colorado_senate_odea_vs_bennet-7773.html Real Clear Politics
  45. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/colorado/ FiveThirtyEight
  46. https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-polls/colorado 270towin
  47. https://coefficient.org/cosen11zxvnb/ co/efficient (R)
  48. https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_colorado_final_midterm_tabs.pdf Data for Progress (D)
  49. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/TRF-CO-General-1102-Poll-Report.pdf The Trafalgar Group (R)
  50. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/colorado-2022-senate-race-tightens-but-bennet-maintains-lead-polis-holds-14-point-lead-over-ganahl/ Emerson College
  51. https://coefficient.org/cosen1027/ co/efficient (R)
  52. https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2022_cpc_topline.pdf CU Boulder/YouGov
  53. https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_CO_banner_book_2022_10_t23jdx.pdf Civiqs
  54. https://newspack-coloradosun.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Mountaineer-Q4-Survey-Topline-F10.17.22.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)
  55. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll-Colorado-NOS-and-Tables_202210071602.pdf Marist College
  56. https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_co_midterm_toplines.pdf Data for Progress (D)
  57. https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/2022-09-SOF-CO-Statewide-MEMO-v2.pdf OnMessage Inc. (R)
  58. https://www.denverpost.com/2022/09/30/colorado-governor-heidi-ganahl-jared-polis-tax-plan/ Keating Research/Magellan Strategies
  59. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/TRF-CO-General-0927-Poll-Report.pdf The Trafalgar Group (R)
  60. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/colorado-2022-democratic-senator-bennet-and-governor-polis-hold-double-digit-leads-in-re-election-campaigns/ Emerson College
  61. https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/ColoradoAugust2022Poll.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
  62. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/democrat-michael-bennet-virtually-tied-with-gop-challenger-joe-odea-in-colorado-senate-race-poll The Tarrance Group (R)
  63. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/TRF-CO-General-0823-Poll-Report.pdf The Trafalgar Group (R)
  64. https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/CO-Jordan-07-26-22-Topline.pdf McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  65. https://live-gsg-new.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Mountaineer-Q2-Topline-F06.16.22.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)
  66. https://live-gsg-new.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Mountaineer-Q4-Topline-F10.28.21.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)
  67. https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/poll-conducted-for-bennet-challenger-eli-bremer-finds-republican-within-striking-distance/article_eda2f59c-1b0b-11ec-8dab-cbae9a3e35d1.html co/efficient (R)
  68. https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/BPP-Colorado.pdf Blueprint Polling (D)
  69. https://lede-admin.coloradosun.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2021/07/CO-Mountaineer-Q2-Survey-Topline-F06.24.21.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)
  70. https://live-gsg-new.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Q2-Mountaineer-Political-Report-F06.16.22.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)
  71. https://www.coloradopolitics.com/elections/poll-polis-holds-edge-over-generic-republican-challenger-in-2022-election/article_cfe12772-8843-11ec-9bf6-4f3c84b8eefb.html Cygnal (R)
  72. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FhYUK-s%20mc Youtube
  73. Results . docs.google.com .

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