2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa explained

Election Name:2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa
Country:Iowa
Type:legislative
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa
Next Year:2024
Seats For Election:All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Last Election1:3
Seats1:4
Seat Change1: 1
Popular Vote1:677,857
Percentage1:55.94%
Swing1: 3.52%
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Last Election2:1
Seats2:0
Seat Change2: 1
Popular Vote2:526,460
Percentage2:43.45%
Swing2: 3.05%

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the State of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. These were the first congressional elections held in Iowa after the 2020 redistricting cycle.

Republicans won all four House seats, making this the first time since 1994 that Democrats had been completely shut out of Iowa's House delegation. This also marks the first time since 1956 that there are no Democrats in Iowa's Congressional delegation.

Background

In the 2020 elections, Republicans flipped the 1st and 2nd congressional districts while holding the 4th, while Democrats only managed to hold onto the 3rd. Iowa is considered to be an important state in the 2022 midterm elections, as Republicans only needed a net gain of five seats to flip the House of Representatives, and the 3rd district had one of the closest House elections won by a Democrat in 2020. At an event in 2021, United States Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), claimed that the "road to the majority...comes through Iowa."[1] However, Democrats remained optimistic, with former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer saying she "couldn't be more excited" about the roster of Iowa Democrats running for Congress in 2022.[2]

District 1

Election Name:2022 Iowa's 1st congressional district election
Country:Iowa
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 2
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 1
Next Year:2024
Image1:File:Mariannette Miller-Meeks, official portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:162,947
Percentage1:53.3%
Nominee2:Christina Bohannan
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:142,173
Percentage2:46.6%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Mariannette Miller-Meeks
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Iowa's 1st congressional district. After redistricting, most of the old 2nd district became the 1st district. The reconfigured 1st covers southeastern Iowa, and includes Davenport, Iowa City, Muscatine, Clinton, Burlington, Fort Madison, Oskaloosa, Bettendorf, Newton and Pella. The 1st district was based in northeastern Iowa, and included the cities of Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. First-term Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks sought reelection in this district. Miller-Meeks flipped the 2nd district with 49.9% of the vote in 2020, defeating Democratic nominee Rita Hart by just six votes out of more than 394,000 cast, a margin of 0.002%.[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn
Declined

Primary results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[11] October 5, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[12] September 1, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] September 7, 2022
Politico[14] August 12, 2022
RCP[15] September 1, 2022
align=left Fox News[16] October 18, 2022
DDHQ[17] September 6, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[18] November 8, 2022
The EconomistSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mariannette
Christina
Bohannan (D)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[19] June 30 – July 4, 2022375 (LV)± 5.1%39%38%22%
Public Policy Polling (D)[20] April 5–6, 2022534 (V)± 3.4%43%47%15%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co.[21] October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%50%41%1%8%
Selzer & Co.[22] July 10–13, 2022149 (LV)± 8.3%50%40%10%

Results

District 2

Election Name:2022 Iowa's 2nd congressional district election
Country:Iowa
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 1
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 2
Next Year:2024
Image1:File:Ashley Hinson, official portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ashley Hinson
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:172,181
Percentage1:54.1%
Nominee2:Liz Mathis
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:145,940
Percentage2:45.8%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Ashley Hinson
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Ashley Hinson
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:250px

See also: Iowa's 2nd congressional district. After redistricting, most of the old 1st district became the 2nd district. The reconfigured 2nd is located in northeastern Iowa and includes Dubuque, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo and Mason City. Freshman Republican Ashley Hinson, who flipped the district with 51.2% of the vote in 2020, sought reelection in the 2nd.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Declined

Primary results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportOctober 25, 2022
align=left Inside ElectionsOctober 21, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallSeptember 7, 2022
PoliticoAugust 12, 2022
RCPSeptember 1, 2022
align=left Fox NewsAugust 22, 2022
DDHQSeptember 6, 2022
FiveThirtyEightSeptember 7, 2022
The EconomistSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ashley
Hinson (R)
Liz
Mathis (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[27] July 19–20, 2022594 (V)± 4.0%44%44%12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[28] February 2–3, 2022623 (V)± 3.9%43%42%15%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co.October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%46%48%1%5%
Public Policy Polling (D)July 19–20, 2022594 (V)± 4.0%50%43%7%
Selzer & Co.July 10–13, 2022149 (LV)± 8.3%54%42%5%
Public Policy Polling (D)February 2–3, 2022623 (V)± 3.9%45%42%13%

Results

District 3

Election Name:2022 Iowa's 3rd congressional district election
Country:Iowa
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 3
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 3
Next Year:2024
Image1:File:Rep. Zach Nunn official photo, 118th Congress (3x4).jpg
Nominee1:Zach Nunn
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:156,262
Percentage1:50.2%
Nominee2:Cindy Axne
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:154,117
Percentage2:49.6%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Cindy Axne
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Zach Nunn
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Iowa's 3rd congressional district. Before redistricting, the 3rd district encompassed southwestern Iowa, stretching from Des Moines to the state's borders with Nebraska and Missouri. The new 3rd is still anchored in Des Moines, but now covers south-central Iowa. The incumbent was Democrat Cindy Axne, who was re-elected with 48.9% of the vote in 2020.[3]

During the campaign, a research firm contracted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee inappropriately obtained the military records of then-candidate Zach Nunn.[29]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Endorsements

Primary results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn

Debates and forums

2022 IA-03 Republican primary debates and forums
DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
<----> Participant   Absent   Non-invitee  <----> Invitee Withdrawn
HassoLefflerNunn
1May 3, 2022Polk County Republican Party
WHO-DT
Dave PriceYoutube (Part 1)
YouTube (Part 2)
2[36] May 14, 2022KCCIStacey Horst and Laura TerrellYoutube[37]

Primary results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportSeptember 1, 2022
align=left Inside ElectionsNovember 3, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallSeptember 7, 2022
PoliticoNovember 3, 2022
RCPSeptember 1, 2022
align=left Fox NewsAugust 22, 2022
DDHQSeptember 23, 2022
FiveThirtyEightNovember 8, 2022
The Economist[39] September 28, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cindy
Axne (D)
Zach
Nunn (R)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R)[41] October 24–25, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%44%46%10%
Moore Information Group (R)[42] September 21–25, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%44%46%10%
Impact Research (D)[43] September 7–11, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%47%47%5%
RMG Research[44] July 29 – August 5, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%41%49%2%8%
Moore Information Group (R)[45] July 9–11, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%43%43%14%
Moore Information Group (R)September 9, 2021– (LV)46%42%12%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co.October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%49%48%0%3%
Selzer & Co.July 10–13, 2022150 (LV)± 8.3%47%44%9%

Results

District 4

Election Name:2022 Iowa's 4th congressional district election
Country:Iowa
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 4
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa#District 4
Next Year:2024
Image1:File:Randy Feenstra, official portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Randy Feenstra
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:186,467
Percentage1:67.3%
Nominee2:Ryan Melton
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:84,230
Percentage2:30.4%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Randy Feenstra
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Randy Feenstra
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Iowa's 4th congressional district. Before redistricting, the 4th district was based in northwestern Iowa, including Sioux City, Ames, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Boone and Carroll. The redrawn 4th also covers much of southwestern Iowa, including Council Bluffs. The incumbent was Republican Randy Feenstra, who was elected with 62.0% of the vote in 2020.[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Declined

Primary results

Other parties and independents

Candidates

Independents

Candidates

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportSeptember 1, 2022
align=left Inside ElectionsSeptember 1, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallSeptember 7, 2022
PoliticoApril 5, 2022
RCPSeptember 1, 2022
align=left Fox NewsAugust 22, 2022
DDHQSeptember 6, 2022
FiveThirtyEightSeptember 7, 2022
The EconomistSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co.October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%62%33%1%4%
Selzer & Co.July 10–13, 2022149 (LV)± 8.3%55%36%8%

Results

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates

Notes and References

  1. Web site: August 28, 2021 . Iowa GOP sets sight on 2022 election to flip house and senate majority . KGAN.
  2. Web site: July 27, 2021 . Democratic State Senator Liz Mathis running for U.S. Congress . The Daily Iowan.
  3. Web site: General Election - 2020 Canvass Summary . Iowa Secretary of State.
  4. Web site: Shillcock . George . Mariannete Miller-Meeks announces re-election bid, blasts Joe Biden . www.press-citizen.com . Iowa City Press-Citizen . 19 September 2021.
  5. Web site: Will Axne and Miller-Meeks face off in new 3rd district?. www.kcci.com . October 29, 2021 . kcci.com . 29 October 2021.
  6. Web site: Doster . Meg . Kyle Kuehl, Republican candidate for Iowa's 1st Congressional District, drops out of race as petition is rejected by state panel . www.dailyiowan.com . Student Publications . 31 March 2022.
  7. Web site: UPDATED: She beat a 20-year incumbent in 2020, now this Iowa lawmaker has her sights on Congress. August 24, 2021 .
  8. News: Akin . Katie . Iowa election 2022: Who's running for governor and for Congress? . 3 News Now Omaha . February 8, 2022 . February 12, 2022.
  9. Web site: Joseph Kerner .
  10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ah5HXp251rc YouTube
  11. Web site: September 1, 2022 . 2022 House Race Ratings . September 7, 2022 . The Cook Political Report.
  12. Web site: September 1, 2022 . House Ratings . September 7, 2022 . The Rothenberg Political Report.
  13. Web site: September 7, 2022 . 2022 House Ratings . September 7, 2022 . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  14. Web site: August 12, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . September 6, 2022 . Politico.
  15. Web site: September 1, 2022 . Battle for the House 2022 . September 6, 2022 . RCP.
  16. Web site: August 22, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . September 6, 2022 . Fox News.
  17. Web site: September 6, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . September 6, 2022 . DDHQ.
  18. Web site: September 6, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . September 6, 2022 . FiveThirtyEight.
  19. https://www.kpvi.com/news/national_news/poll-iowas-1st-2nd-and-3rd-districts-tied-or-separated-by-just-1-point/article_b8fc7017-ba59-55f1-a651-31d499b7a0e8.html Change Research (D)
  20. https://admin.314action.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/IA1Toplines1.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
  21. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/10/17/iowa-poll-us-house-race-axne-nunn-hinson-mathis-election/69563109007/ Selzer & Co.
  22. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/07/20/iowa-poll-house-election-2022-republicans-favored-democrats-congressional-districts/10072584002/ Selzer & Co.
  23. Web site: Dunlap . Natalie . Rep. Ashley Hinson announces reelection campaign, with support of Iowa Republicans, Sen. Ted Cruz . www.dailyiowan.com . The Daily Iowan . 29 August 2021.
  24. Web site: Ashley Hinson announces run for re-election of Iowa's new 2nd Congressional District. www.ktvo.com . October 29, 2021 . ktvo.com . 29 October 2021.
  25. Web site: Democratic state Sen. Liz Mathis launches campaign for Congress in Iowa's 1st District. .
  26. Web site: Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer announces run for GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley's Iowa seat. live. 2021-07-22. ABC News. en. https://web.archive.org/web/20210722153720/https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rep-abby-finkenauer-announces-run-senate-iowa/story?id=78990494 . July 22, 2021 .
  27. https://www.kpvi.com/news/national_news/poll-iowas-1st-2nd-and-3rd-districts-tied-or-separated-by-just-1-point/article_b8fc7017-ba59-55f1-a651-31d499b7a0e8.html Public Policy Polling (D)
  28. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017e-d215-ddf9-a9fe-da17763f0000 Public Policy Polling (D)
  29. News: 2 former House GOP candidates alerted to improper requests for Air Force records.
  30. Web site: Pfannenstiel. Brianne. Cindy Axne will run for reelection in Congress, closing the door on Iowa gubernatorial bid. 12 November 2021. Des Moines Register. en.
  31. Web site: Pfannenstiel. Brianne. Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn announces congressional campaign in Iowa's 3rd District. July 13, 2021. August 12, 2021. The Des Moines Register. en-US.
  32. Web site: Johnston Republican Nicole Hasso announces her candidacy for Iowa's 3rd District congressional race. July 7, 2021. August 12, 2021. Pfannenstiel. Brianne. The Des Moines Register. en.
  33. Web site: Meet the Candidates: Gary Leffler . May 19, 2022 .
  34. Web site: Brownlee. Brownlee. Hanusa officially launches run for Congress. May 27, 2021. August 12, 2021. The Daily Nonpareil. en.
  35. Web site: Pfannenstiel. Brianne. January 5, 2022. Retired GOP state Rep. Mary Ann Hanusa to run for state auditor against Democrat Rob Sand. January 5, 2022. www.desmoinesregister.com. The Des Moines Register. en-US.
  36. Web site: Republican candidates for U.S. Congress square off in KCCI debate. May 14, 2022. May 15, 2022.
  37. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY1-t6sqgyc Youtube
  38. https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1438488648706629640 Moore Information Group (R)
  39. News: The Economist's 2022 House Election forecast . The Economist . September 28, 2022.
  40. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2022/iowa/3/ FiveThirtyEight
  41. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oae0TCAbEBiNLK167imglPuKL66jKsCB/view Moore Information Group (R)
  42. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000183-8f29-d824-a1d7-af29e21a0000&nname=playbook-pm&nid=0000015a-dd3e-d536-a37b-dd7fd8af0000&nrid=0000014e-f111-dd93-ad7f-f9152af40000&nlid=964328 Moore Information Group (R)
  43. https://cindyaxneforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/IA-CD3-SEPT-2022-POLLING-MEMO_REV-FINAL-1.pdf Impact Research (D)
  44. https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IA03%20Toplines.pdf RMG Research
  45. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/biden-unpopularity-boosts-iowa-gop-challenger-nunn Moore Information Group (R)
  46. Web site: Nevada Democrat announces candidacy for Congress against U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra. Danielle . Gehr. Ames Tribune. February 4, 2022. May 28, 2022.
  47. Web site: Democrat J.D. Scholten, former Congressional candidate, is running for Iowa House. Ian . Richardson. Des Moines Register. March 16, 2022. March 16, 2022.