2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota explained

Election Name:2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota's at-large district
Country:North Dakota
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Turnout:42.11% [1]
Image1:Kelly Armstrong (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:Kelly Armstrong
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:148,399
Percentage1:62.2%
Nominee2:Cara Mund
Party2:Independent (United States)
Alliance2:North Dakota Democratic–Nonpartisan League Party
Popular Vote2:89,644
Percentage2:37.6%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Kelly Armstrong
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Kelly Armstrong
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Kelly Armstrong was re-elected with 69.0% of the vote in 2020. His only opponent in the general election was Independent Cara Mund after Democratic nominee Mark Haugen withdrew.

Although Armstrong won by a large margin, his 62.2% showing was his worst since his first election in 2018, and Mund's 37.6% was the best showing for a non-Republican in a North Dakota U.S. House race since 2014.[2] Mund's vote share was at least 10% higher than every 2022 statewide Democratic–NPL candidate in North Dakota and nearly 6% higher than incumbent president Democrat Joe Biden's vote share in the 2020 presidential election.[3] Mund also had the second-best performance of any Independent in the 2022 congressional elections, only surpassed by Evan McMullin in the Utah Senate race.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

Aftermath

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Haugen faced criticism among Democrats for his anti-abortion beliefs. Many within the Democratic–NPL Party preferred independent candidate Cara Mund, who is pro-choice, and urged Haugen to drop out of the race. Haugen ended his campaign in September and the Democratic–NPL Party endorsed Mund shortly after.[7] [8]

Independents

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[11] October 5, 2021
align=left Inside Elections[12] October 11, 2021
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] October 5, 2021
Politico[14] April 5, 2022
RCP[15] June 9, 2022
align=left Fox News[16] July 11, 2022
DDHQ[17] July 20, 2022
538[18] June 30, 2022

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kelly
Armstrong (R)
Cara
Mund (I)
OtherUndecided
DFM Research (D)September 19–21, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%44%40%2%14%
Axis Research (R)September 16–19, 2022402 (LV)± 5.0%52%30%18%
1982 Polling (R)September 10–12, 2022518 (LV)± 4.3%48%31%13%
Odney (R)August 18–28, 2022403 (LV)± 4.9%49%20%15%16%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Voter Turnout Details . . November 8, 2022 . November 13, 2022 .
  2. Web site: 2010 - 2018 Election Results.
  3. Web site: Shaw: Cara Mund's strong showing and other election thoughts. November 12, 2022 .
  4. News: Stanko. Frank. December 20, 2021. Armstrong, Cramer, Hoeven discuss '21 challenges, hopes for '22. Wahpeton Daily News. December 23, 2021.
  5. Web site: Christiansen, Haugen accept Dem-NPL nominations for North Dakota U.S. Senate, House races. March 27, 2022. March 31, 2022. KFYR-TV.
  6. Web site: Nelson . TJ . Democrat Mark Haugen Suspends Campaign For U.S. House In N.D. . . 5 September 2022 . 4 September 2022.
  7. Web site: More details released for Haugen decision to suspend campaign. September 5, 2022. 8 December 2022. KFYR-TV.
  8. Web site: Abortion backers force out pro-life Democratic congressional candidate in N. Dakota. September 7, 2022. 8 December 2022. CNA.
  9. Web site: 2022-08-06 . Cara Mund announces bid for Congress . 2022-08-07 . KX NEWS . en-US.
  10. Web site: Ex-Miss America Mund qualifies as ND congressional candidate. September 9, 2022. St. Louis Post-Dispatch. September 9, 2022. September 9, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220909172412/https://www.stltoday.com/news/national/ex-miss-america-mund-qualifies-as-nd-congressional-candidate/article_3ef845d8-4dff-546f-9823-31aee0a8f1d0.html. dead.
  11. Web site: 2022 House Race Ratings . The Cook Political Report . October 1, 2021.
  12. Web site: House Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 4, 2021.
  13. Web site: Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2022 House Ratings. October 5, 2021. October 5, 2021.
  14. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast. April 5, 2022. Politico.
  15. Web site: Battle for the House 2022. June 9, 2022 . RCP.
  16. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . July 11, 2022 . July 11, 2022.
  17. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  18. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.