2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska explained

Election Name:2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
Country:Alaska
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
Previous Year:2022 (special)
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
Next Year:2024
1Blank:First round
2Blank:Maximum round
Image1:Mary Peltola Congressional Member Portrait (2) (cropped).jpeg
Candidate1:Mary Peltola
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
1Data1:128,553
48.8%
2Data1:137,263
55.0%
Candidate2:Sarah Palin
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
1Data2:67,866
25.7%
2Data2:112,471
45.0%
Candidate3:Nick Begich III
Image3:Nick Begich Official Campaign Profile Photo (Cropped).jpg
Party3:Republican Party (United States)
1Data3:61,513
23.3%
2Data3:Eliminated
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Mary Peltola
Before Party:Democratic Party (US)
After Election:Mary Peltola
After Party:Democratic Party (US)

The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.[1]

This was the second race in Alaska held under the 2020 Measure 2 election procedure. Earlier that year, a special election was held to complete the term of the late Don Young. Peltola won.[2]

In the race for the full term of the congressional seat, all candidates first ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary. Each voter cast a single vote to choose who would advance to the runoff. Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye advanced to the runoff.[3] [4]

Under the rules of instant-runoff, Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes. These votes were then transferred to either Peltola or Palin, depending on who the voter ranked higher on their ballot. Peltola won with 55% of the vote, increasing her margin from the special election.[5]

Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race, and the best performance for any statewide candidate in Alaska since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won (or flipped) a district that Donald Trump had carried in the 2020 presidential election. She outran Joe Biden's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.

Election scientists observing this election noted that, in contrast to the previous special election, the general election involved few (if any) election pathologies. They noted that Begich was eliminated first despite a majority of voters preferring him to Palin, though he still would have lost to Peltola.[6] Peltola won the election as the majority-choice (Condorcet) candidate, with support from a majority of voters.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew

Declined

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Libertarian Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Alaskan Independence Party

Declined

American Independent Party

Eliminated in primary

Independents

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[32] November 1, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[33] November 3, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] November 2, 2022
Politico[35] October 26, 2022
RCP[36] November 3, 2022
align=left Fox News[37] November 1, 2022
DDHQ[38] November 8, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[39] November 3, 2022
The Economist[40] November 2, 2022

Debates and forums

As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.

A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election, a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.

2022 Alaska U.S. Representative debates
DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
<----> Participant   Absent   Non-invitee  <----> Invitee Withdrawn
Nick Begich IIIChris ByeSarah PalinMary Peltola
1August 31, 2022Alaska Oil and Gas AssociationDave KarpYouTube
2October 4, 2022Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM)Dan Rohrhttps://alaskabeacon.com/2022/10/05/kodiak-fishery-debate-highlights-differences-between-peltola-and-her-house-rivals/
3October 10, 2022Anchorage Chamber of CommerceJulie HasquetYouTube
4October 21, 2022Alaska Federation of Natives
5October 26, 2022Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News SourceLori Townsend, Mike RossYouTube

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Nick
Begich
(R)
Chris
Bye
(L)
Undecided /
Not Ranked /
Other
Dittman ResearchNovember 2–3, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%
148%25%23%3%1% U
1% O
249%26%25%Elim
356%44%ElimElim
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 19–22, 20221,276 (LV)± 3.0%
149%26%21%5%
251%27%22%Elim
357%43%ElimElim
3*56%Elim44%Elim
Dittman ResearchOctober 4–8, 2022411 (LV)± 4.8%
145%23%28%3%
246%24%30%Elim
352%Elim48%Elim
Alaska Survey ResearchSeptember 25–27, 20221,282 (LV)± 3.0%
149%23%26%2%
250%24%26%Elim
354%Elim46%Elim
3*56%44%ElimElim
Dittman ResearchSeptember 6–14, 2022394 (LV)± 4.9%
150%27%20%3%1% U
1% O
251%28%21%Elim
358%42%ElimElim
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)September 6–11, 20221,050 (LV)N/A45%30%20%2%3% U
146%31%20%2%3% NR
247%32%21%Elim4% NR
353%47%ElimElim10% NR
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Nick
Begich
(R)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Tara
Sweeney
(R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 20–25, 20221,253 (LV)± 3.0%126%27%39%8%
229%29%42%Elim
354%Elim46%Elim
3*Elim48%53%Elim
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)± 2.9%127%27%38%8%
231%29%41%Elim
356%Elim44%Elim

Results

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district election[41] [42]
PartyCandidateFirst choiceRound 1Round 2Round 3
Votes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%
Democratic (incumbent)128,55348.77%+202128,75548.66%+1,031129,78649.22%+7,477137,26354.96%
Republican67,86625.74%+46468,33025.82%+1,06969,39926.32%+43,072112,47145.04%
Republican61,51323.33%+99262,50523.62%+1,99464,49924.46%-64,499Eliminated
Libertarian4,5701.73%+4294,9991.89% -4,999Eliminated
Write-in1,1080.42%-1,108Eliminated
Total votes263,610264,589263,684249,734
Blank or inactive ballots2,208+9053,113+13,95017,063
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Bradner . Eric . 2022-11-23 . CNN projects Rep. Mary Peltola will win race for Alaska House seat, thwarting Sarah Palin's political comeback again CNN Politics . 2022-11-24 . CNN . en.
  2. News: Ruskin . Liz . March 18, 2022 . Alaska Congressman Don Young has died . . March 18, 2022.
  3. News: Ruskin . Liz . August 23, 2022 . Tara Sweeney ends campaign for U.S. House, opening spot for Libertarian on November ballot . Alaska Public Media. September 6, 2022 . 'If a candidate who advances out of the primary withdraws 64 or more days before the general election, the fifth place candidate will advance instead,' a Division of Elections spokeswoman said by email..
  4. Web site: Media . Andrew Kitchenman, KTOO and Alaska Public . 2020-11-18 . Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2 . 2020-11-18 . KTOO . en-US.
  5. News: Cochrane . Emily . 2022-11-24 . Mary Peltola Wins Bid to Serve Full Term in the House for Alaska . en-US . The New York Times . 2022-11-25 . 0362-4331.
  6. Clelland . Jeanne N. . Ranked Choice Voting And Condorcet Failure in the Alaska 2022 Special Election: How Might Other Voting Systems Compare? . 2024-04-11 . cs.CY . 2303.00108.
  7. Web site: Candidate list keeps growing with former lawmaker Mary Sattler Peltola . 2022-04-01 . Anchorage Daily News.
  8. Web site: Brooks . James . June 16, 2022 . Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola . June 17, 2022.
  9. Web site: Hickman . Matt . March 21, 2022 . Rumors swirl, but Al Gross remains the only newcomer who's a virtual lock to enter race to replace Don Young . March 26, 2022 . Anchorage Press.
  10. Web site: Emil Notti, who ran against Don Young in 1973, jumps into the race . 2022-04-01 . Anchorage Daily News.
  11. Web site: Rosen . Yereth . June 7, 2022 . Candidates make pitch for temporary service representing Alaska in U.S. House . June 7, 2022.
  12. News: March 21, 2022 . Begich, Constant to Run in Special Alaska US House Election . Associated Press . March 21, 2022.
  13. News: Ulloa . Jazmine . Peters . Jeremy W. . April 2, 2022 . Sarah Palin Announces She's Running for Congress in Alaska . The New York Times .
  14. Web site: Herz . Nathaniel . March 26, 2022 . An array of Alaska politicians ponder bids in the "absolute jungle" of elections to replace U.S. Rep. Don Young . March 26, 2022 . Anchorage Daily News.
  15. News: Samuels . Iris . August 23, 2022 . Tara Sweeney drops out of Alaska U.S. House race . . August 24, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220824100304/https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/08/23/tara-sweeney-drops-out-of-alaska-us-house-race/ . August 24, 2022.
  16. Web site: 2022 Special Primary Election for U.S. Representative . March 26, 2022 . Alaska Division of Elections.
  17. Web site: Robert Lyons . 6 April 2022 . Ballotpedia.
  18. Web site: 2022 Primary Candidate List . June 1, 2022 . Alaska Division of Elections.
  19. News: Bohrer . Becky . March 28, 2022 . Gross, Coghill say they plan to run for Alaska US House seat . . . live . March 29, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220329090134/https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Independent-Al-Gross-to-run-for-US-House-seat-in-17034017.php . March 29, 2022.
  20. News: June 20, 2022 . John Coghill pulls out of Congressional race, makes endorsement . . . June 24, 2022.
  21. Web site: Downing . Suzanne . March 23, 2022 . Revak to file for Congress to replace Don Young . March 24, 2022.
  22. Web site: BOHRER . BECKY . April 2, 2022 . Palin joins 50 others in running for Alaska US House seat . Alton Telegraph . April 6, 2022 . April 15, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220415224203/https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/article/List-of-candidates-for-Alaska-US-House-seat-tops-17051946.php . dead .
  23. News: Bohrer . Becky . June 22, 2022 . Sweeney does not plan suit over Alaska House ballot decision . . The Register Citizen . June 24, 2022 . June 25, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220625050049/https://www.registercitizen.com/news/article/Sweeney-does-not-plan-suit-over-Alaska-House-17258666.php . dead .
  24. Web site: Samuels . Iris . Herz . Nathaniel . Brooks . James . April 2, 2022 . 51 candidates: A wild U.S. House race takes shape in Alaska . April 2, 2022 . Anchorage Daily News.
  25. Web site: Alaska's U.S. House candidate field expands as Friday deadline nears . Anchorage Daily News.
  26. News: Herz . Nathaniel . Brooks . James . March 22, 2022 . After Young's death, Alaska's political world braces for a sea change and an elections marathon . . live . March 22, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220322040545/https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/03/21/after-youngs-death-alaskas-political-world-braces-for-a-sea-change-and-an-elections-marathon/ . March 22, 2022.
  27. Web site: Pellegrini . Silvio . April 6, 2022 . LinkedIn Profile . LinkedIn.
  28. Web site: Matt Hickman . March 19, 2022 . Source: Gross running for Congressional seat vacated by Young's passing . March 21, 2022 . Anchorage Press.
  29. 1539077292009267200 . SeanBMaguire . Al Gross is withdrawing from the U.S. House race, according to a press release from his campaign. Zero explanation why and he's not answering his cellphone. Endorses Mary Peltola and Tara Sweeney. Ping @alaskalandmine that broke the story. . June 20, 2022 . June 20, 2022 . Maguire . Sean.
  30. Web site: Ruskin . Liz . June 21, 2022 . Al Gross, a top four candidate for US House, calls it quits . June 27, 2022.
  31. Web site: OUR campaign gives voters hope for a better future for all Alaskans, especially our children. Thank you so much for your unwavering support, kind words, and love (the greatest gift), and the powerful statement you have made with your vote. My 2-min video .
  32. Web site: 2022 House Race Ratings . November 3, 2022 . The Cook Political Report.
  33. Web site: House Ratings . November 3, 2022 . The Rothenberg Political Report.
  34. Web site: October 5, 2021 . 2022 House Ratings . November 3, 2022 . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  35. Web site: April 5, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . Politico.
  36. Web site: June 9, 2022 . Battle for the House 2022 . RCP.
  37. Web site: September 20, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . November 3, 2022 . Fox News.
  38. Web site: July 20, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . November 3, 2022 . DDHQ.
  39. Web site: June 30, 2022 . 2022 Election Forecast . November 3, 2022 . FiveThirtyEight.
  40. News: The Economist's 2022 House forecast . The Economist . November 3, 2022.
  41. Web site: November 30, 2022 . RCV Detailed Report General Election State of Alaska . December 29, 2022 . Alaska Division of Elections.
  42. Web site: November 30, 2022 . State of Alaska 2022 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report . January 16, 2023 . Alaska Division of Elections.