| Election Name: | 2022 Maine gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Maine |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2018 Maine gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2026 Maine gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2026 |
| Election Date: | November 8, 2022 |
| Registered: | 1,145,052[1] [2] (8.14 pp) |
| Turnout: | 59.47%[3] (1.77 pp) |
| Nominee1: | Janet Mills |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 376,934 |
| Percentage1: | 55.69% |
| Nominee2: | Paul LePage |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 287,304 |
| Percentage2: | 42.45% |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Janet Mills |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Janet Mills |
| After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2022 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Democratic governor Janet Mills won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee and former governor, Paul LePage. Neither candidate faced any primary opposition.[4] [5] An independent candidate, Sam Hunkler, received 2% of the vote, the lowest total for a third party or independent gubernatorial candidate in the state since 1982.
This was the first gubernatorial election in Maine since 1990 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president. With over 376,000 votes, Mills won more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Maine history, breaking her own record set four years earlier. Her 13-point margin of victory was the largest for a statewide Democratic candidate since George J. Mitchell won over 80% of the vote in the 1988 United States Senate election.
Mills's victory was also the largest for any gubernatorial candidate since incumbent Angus King won 59% of the vote in 1998.
With no other candidates challenging Mills or LePage in their respective primaries, the campaign started out with most prediction models giving Mills a slight edge over LePage. However, Maine had not elected a governor from the same party as the President since 1990, and some Democrats were afraid that Democratic president Joe Biden's low approval ratings would hurt Mills.[16]
Access to abortion became a crucial issue following the Supreme Court's ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade and eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, effectively returning the issue to the states. Following the leak of the draft opinion, Mills released a statement saying "I do not consider the rights of women to be dispensable. And I pledge that as long as I am governor, I will fight with everything I have to protect reproductive rights and to preserve access to reproductive health care in the face of every and any threat to it – whether from politicians in Augusta or Supreme Court Justices in Washington."[17]
After the release of the draft opinion, LePage stated he supported some abortion restrictions, but pledged to preserve access to abortion in cases of rape, incest and life of the mother. However, this was seen as a reversal over his previous statements, including one in 2016 where he said that "we should not have abortion,"[18] and a 2018 statement in support of overturning Roe v. Wade.[19] LePage would continue to struggle with questions on abortion, and a stumble in a debate with Mills on the topic led to national headlines.[20]
Over the course of the campaign, Mills developed a fundraising advantage over LePage,[21] while outside groups unaffiliated with either campaign broke records for spending, mostly on negative ads. Ads supporting Mills's candidacy or opposing LePage's candidacy accounted for over $9 million in spending, while ads supporting LePage or opposing Mills accounted for over $7 million.[22]
Polls released after the primaries showed Mills having a moderate-to-large lead over LePage, with the closest poll showing her ahead by six points.
Mills was declared the winner by the Associated Press shortly before midnight on November 8. LePage did not immediately concede the race,[23] but did concede on November 9 with a written statement.[24] In his election night remarks, LePage concluded that he "missed the message" on abortion.[25] Some observers saw the results as symbolic of the decline of the once-dominant Maine Republican Party, and Maine's movement towards becoming a solid blue state.[26]
In the election, Mills broke her own record set four years earlier for most votes received by a Maine gubernatorial candidate.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[27] | March 4, 2022 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[28] | July 22, 2022 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] | August 18, 2022 | |
| align=left | Politico[30] | August 12, 2022 | |
| align=left | RCP[31] | January 10, 2022 | |
| align=left | Fox News[32] | October 11, 2022 | |
| 538[33] | September 18, 2022 | ||
| Elections Daily[34] | November 7, 2022 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Janet Mills (D) | Paul LePage (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | November 2–6, 2022 | 922 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 44% | 2% | 2% | ||
| SurveyUSA | October 28 – November 2, 2022 | 1,116 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 43% | 4% | 5% | ||
| Ascend Action | October 26–29, 2022 | 471 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 55% | 40% | 1% | 4% | ||
| Pan Atlantic Research | October 7–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | 2% | 10% | ||
| Emerson College | September 19–20, 2022 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 53% | 41% | 2% | 4% | ||
| University of New Hampshire | September 15–19, 2022 | 694 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 39% | 2% | 5% | ||
| Maine People's Resource Center | September 1–9, 2022 | 814 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 38% | 3% | 10% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | May 10–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 46% | – | 3% | ||
| Pan Atlantic Research | April 21 – May 5, 2022 | 824 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Digital Research Inc. | March 14 – April 7, 2022 | 622 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 39% | 6% | 13% | ||
| SurveyUSA (D) | August 24–31, 2021 | 1,242 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% | ||
| SurveyUSA | May 13–19, 2021 | 514 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 38% | 3% | 12% |
| Date | Organizer | Moderator | Location | Link | Democratic | Republican | Independent | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Participant Absent Non-invitee Invitee Withdrawn | |||||||||
| Janet Mills | Paul LePage | Sam Hunkler | |||||||
| 1[35] | October 4, 2022 | Maine Public, Portland Press Herald, Sun Journal | Jennifer Rooks | Lewiston | C-SPAN | ||||
| 2[36] | October 6, 2022 | Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce | Quincy Hentzel | Portland | YouTube | N | |||
| 3[37] | October 24, 2022 | Bangor Daily News, WGME-TV | Gregg Lagerquist | Portland | YouTube | N | |||
| 4[38] | October 27, 2022 | Maine State Chamber of Commerce, News Center Maine | Pat Callaghan | Portland | YouTube | N | |||
| Janet Mills | Paul LePage | Sam Hunkler | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=center | County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Androscoggin | 22,915 | 48.5% | 23,220 | 49.1% | 884 | 1.9% | 47,281 | |
| Aroostook | 11,587 | 40.2% | 16,530 | 57.3% | 515 | 1.8% | 28,844 | |
| Cumberland | 112,188 | 68.8% | 47,201 | 29.0% | 2,462 | 1.5% | 162,969 | |
| Franklin | 7,406 | 49.4% | 7,179 | 47.9% | 343 | 2.3% | 15,001 | |
| Hancock | 17,446 | 56.7% | 12,527 | 40.7% | 566 | 1.8% | 30,749 | |
| Kennebec | 30,838 | 50.8% | 28,368 | 46.7% | 1,140 | 1.9% | 60,685 | |
| Knox | 13,441 | 60.0% | 8,430 | 37.6% | 385 | 1.7% | 22,397 | |
| Lincoln | 11,853 | 56.3% | 8,744 | 41.5% | 349 | 1.6% | 21,051 | |
| Oxford | 12,875 | 46.2% | 14,229 | 51.0% | 631 | 2.3% | 27,897 | |
| Penobscot | 31,844 | 46.2% | 35,496 | 51.5% | 1,303 | 1.9% | 68,983 | |
| Piscataquis | 3,098 | 37.5% | 4,960 | 60.0% | 158 | 1.9% | 8,266 | |
| Sagadahoc | 12,414 | 59.3% | 8,049 | 38.4% | 379 | 1.8% | 20,948 | |
| Somerset | 9,083 | 39.6% | 13,233 | 57.7% | 500 | 2.2% | 22,945 | |
| Waldo | 11,508 | 54.4% | 9,099 | 43.0% | 400 | 1.9% | 21,146 | |
| Washington | 6,046 | 40.6% | 8,160 | 54.8% | 553 | 3.7% | 14,892 | |
| York | 60,772 | 57.9% | 41,662 | 39.7% | 1,994 | 1.9% | 105,010 | |
Mills won 1 of 2 congressional districts with LePage winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[39]
| District | Mills | LePage | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 36% | |||||
| 47% | 50% | Jared Golden |