2022 Illinois gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2022 Illinois gubernatorial election
Country:Illinois
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 Illinois gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2026 Illinois gubernatorial election
Next Year:2026
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Turnout:50.96% 5.19 pp
Image1:Governor JB Pritzker official portrait 2019 (crop).jpg
Nominee1:JB Pritzker
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate1:Juliana Stratton
Popular Vote1:2,253,748
Percentage1:54.91%
Nominee2:Darren Bailey
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Stephanie Trussell
Popular Vote2:1,739,095
Percentage2:42.37%
Governor
Before Election:JB Pritzker
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:JB Pritzker
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Illinois, concurrently with the 2022 Illinois general election. Gubernatorial candidates ran on tickets with candidates for lieutenant governor. The incumbent governor and lieutenant governor, first-term Democrats JB Pritzker and Juliana Stratton, sought re-election together against Republican nominees Illinois State Senator Darren Bailey and his running mate Stephanie Trussell.

On election day, Pritzker won re-election with 54.9% of the vote, 0.4% higher than his 2018 performance, and the best raw vote percentage for a Democrat for governor since 1960. However, his margin of victory declined from 15.7% in 2018 to just 12.5% in 2022. Pritzker's victory was once again the result of a strong performance in the Chicago metropolitan area—containing a majority of the state's population—winning a lopsided victory in strongly Democratic Cook County, the home of Chicago, as well as winning all but one of the neighboring collar counties. Bailey improved upon former Republican governor Bruce Rauner's performance in 2018 by just under 4%, largely due to the absence of a strong third-party conservative candidate that appeared in 2018. Subsequently, Bailey was able to flip the counties of Alexander, Fulton, Jackson, Knox, and Winnebago, which Pritzker had previously won, while Pritzker managed to flip McLean county, marking the first time since 1948 that it has voted for a Democrat in a gubernatorial election.

Pritzker was the first Illinois governor to serve a full term and be reelected for a second since Rod Blagojevich in 2006. If Pritzker serves the entirety of his term, he will become the first Democratic governor in the state's history to serve two full four-year terms, as every other Democratic governor had either been impeached, died or resigned before finishing their second term.

Background

The primaries and general elections coincided with those for federal congressional races, the state's U.S. Senate race, and those for other state offices. The election was part of the 2022 Illinois elections.

The primary election was held on June 28.[1] The general election was held on November 8, 2022.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Removed from ballot

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Darren
Bailey		Richard
Irvin		Gary
Rabine		Paul
Schimpf		Max
Solomon		Jesse
Sullivan		OtherUndecided
Ogden & Fry (R)[28] June 24, 2022518 (LV)± 4.4%38%13%9%3%1%17%–20%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[29] June 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%37%14%7%4%<1%17%1%18%
Remington Research Group (R)[30] June 14–15, 2022889 (LV)± 3.0%27%13%8%6%3%27%–26%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[31] June 10–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 2.9%38%20%8%5%1%12%–16%
Ogden & Fry (R)[32] June 11–12, 2022662 (LV)± 3.9%31%17%8%3%1%11%–30%
Public Policy Polling (D)[33] June 6–7, 2022677 (LV)± 3.8%32%17%6%4%2%11%–27%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[34] June 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 3.5%27%20%12%3%–13%–24%
1892 Polling (R)[35] May 24–25, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%25%31%8%2%1%11%–22%
Emerson College[36] May 6–8, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%20%24%8%2%2%7%–37%
Cor Strategies (R)[37] April 29 – May 2, 2022671 (LV)± 3.8%21%33%7%2%3%10%–25%
Cor Strategies (R)[38] April 18–21, 2022536 (LV)± 4.2%13%30%4%1%2%9%2%38%
Cor Strategies (R)~February 11, 2022– (LV)–23%10%6%5%1%11%–44%
Ogden & Fry (R)[39] October 3–4, 2021404 (LV)± 5.0%33%–5%3%–6%3%49%

Results

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Other parties and independents

Independents

Declared but never filed

Removed from ballot

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[45] March 4, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[46] March 4, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] June 29, 2022
Politico[48] April 1, 2022
align=left RCP[49] October 26, 2022
align=left Fox News[50] August 22, 2022
538[51] June 30, 2022
Elections Daily[52] November 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		JB
Pritzker (D)		Darren
Bailey (R)		Scott
Schluter (L)		OtherUndecided
Victory Research (R)[54] November 5–7, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%49%42%5%–4%
Research Co.[55] November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%56%37%2%–5%
Civiqs[56] October 22–25, 2022659 (LV)± 4.3%56%39%–3%1%
Emerson College[57] October 20–24, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%41%3%2%4%
52%42%3%3%–
University of Illinois Springfield[58] October 17 – 25, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.5%55%40%5%––
Osage Research (R)[59] October 13–15, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%44%42%4%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[60] October 10–11, 2022770 (LV)± 3.5%49%34%8%–9%
Research America[61] October 5–11, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%28%6%4%13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[62] September 25–27, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%––5%
48%40%3%–8%
Emerson College[63] September 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%36%–5%8%
Osage Research (R)[64] September 8–10, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%44%37%8%–13%
Victory Research (R)[65] August 30 – September 1, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%47%36%2%–15%
Victory Geek (D)[66] August 25–28, 2022512 (LV)± 4.3%56%38%––6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)August, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%50%38%3%–10%
52%42%––6%
Victory Research (R)[67] July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%49%39%2%–10%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[68] June 20–21, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%50%43%––7%
Victory Research (R)[69] January 18–20, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%55%27%––17%

JB Pritzker vs. Richard Irvin

JB Pritzker vs. Gary Rabine
JB Pritzker vs. Paul Schimpf
JB Pritzker vs. Jesse Sullivan
JB Pritzker vs. generic Republican
JB Pritzker vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		JB
Pritzker (D)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Victory Research (R)July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%47%47%6%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[71] June 20–21, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%3%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Debates

2022 Illinois gubernatorial debates
DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublican
Participant   Absent   Non-invitee   Invitee Withdrawn
JB PritzkerDarren Bailey
October 6, 2022Illinois State UniversityYouTube
October 18, 2022NewsNationYouTube

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Pritzker won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[72]

DistrictPritzkerBaileyRepresentative
68%30%Bobby Rush (117th Congress)
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress)
66%32%Robin Kelly
68%29%Marie Newman (117th Congress)
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress)
69%29%Chuy García
70%28%Mike Quigley
53%44%Sean Casten
85%13%Danny Davis
55%42%Raja Krishnamoorthi
71%26%Jan Schakowsky
61%35%Brad Schneider
55%42%Bill Foster
25%72%Mike Bost
53%44%Nikki Budzinski
52%45%Lauren Underwood
29%69%Mary Miller
37%60%Darin LaHood
49%48%Cheri Bustos (117th Congress)
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress)

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Pearson . Rick . Petrella . Dan . Pritzker signs election package that moves 2022 primary to June, makes fixtures of curbside and mail-in voting . chicagotribune.com . Chicago Tribune . 20 August 2021 . 17 Jun 2021.
  2. Web site: 19 July 2021 . Governor JB Pritzker announces re-election bid for 2022 . 19 July 2021 . WGN-TV . November 18, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20221118020717/https://wgntv.com/news/governor-jb-pritzker-announces-re-election-bid-for-2022/ . dead .
  3. Web site: West Side nurse launches primary bid against Pritzker, aiming to become Illinois' first Black woman governor. July 1, 2021. Armentrout, Mitchell. Chicago Sun Times.
  4. News: March 30, 2022 . 2022 Illinois Primary Election Preview .
  5. Web site: Pearson . Rick . February 22, 2020 . Conservative Republican state Sen. Darren Bailey announces governor run, pledges to fight 'political elites' . www.chicagotribune.com . Chicago Tribune . en . February 22, 2021.
  6. Web site: Hinton . Rachel . December 13, 2021 . GOP gov candidate Bailey names former talk radio host as running mate . Chicago Sun-Times.
  7. Web site: IL governor race: Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin announces run with Avery Bourne as running mate . January 17, 2022. Wall, Craig. abc7chicago.com.
  8. News: Miller. Rich. Business owner, Trump supporter Gary Rabine says he will run for governor. February 8, 2021. Capitol Fax. February 8, 2021.
  9. News: Kapos. Shia. Chicago schools close again as standoff continues. January 10, 2022. Politico Illinois Playbook. January 10, 2022.
  10. Web site: Bremer . Shelby . Republican Former State Sen. Paul Schimpf Announces Run for Illinois Governor . . 6 March 2021 . 15 February 2021.
  11. News: Miller. Rich. Campaign notebook: Conroy; Morrison; Schimpf; McCombie; Newman; Pritzker; Giannoulias. January 11, 2022. Capitol Fax. January 11, 2022.
  12. Web site: Meet Latasha. MAX SOLOMON. April 26, 2022. March 25, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220325170145/https://www.maxsolomon.org/meetlatasha. dead.
  13. News: Kapos. Shia. Back to Springfield: 'We're close' on energy bill. September 7, 2021. Politico Illinois Playbook. September 7, 2021.
  14. Web site: Jesse Sullivan Fundraising Booklet. September 7, 2021. Sullivan for Illinois. September 7, 2021.
  15. Web site: Sullivan vows Illinois "turnaround". capitolfax.com. September 9, 2021. Miller, Rich.
  16. Web site: Republican gubernatorial candidate Sullivan taps former Ives campaign aide Murphy as running mate. February 5, 2022. Avery, Taylor. Chicago Sun Times.
  17. News: Apr 22, 2022 . QAnot? Far-right conspiracy theorists knocked off Illinois GOP primary ballot — but they insist 'We are not done' . Chicago Sun Times . Armentrout, Mitchell.
  18. News: April 25, 2022 . 2 candidates for Illinois governor removed from ballot over nomination petition issues . The State Journal-Register . Adams, Andrew.
  19. Web site: Maxwell . Mark . Davis to seek re-election to Congress in newly drawn 15th district . www.wcia.com . 30 November 2021. November 29, 2021.
  20. Web site: Hinton. Rachel. Dillard weighing third run for governor to 'restore political balance to Illinois and make it safe and function well again'. Chicago Sun-Times. August 4, 2021.
  21. Web site: Pearson. Rick. Rep. Adam Kinzinger has battled Trump and his fellow Republicans. In deep blue Illinois, could that be a strategy for higher office?. chicagotribune.com. December 29, 2020.
  22. Web site: Axelrod. Tal. Kinzinger raises $2.2 million for reelection fund, anti-Trump PAC. The Hill. June 21, 2021. April 1, 2021. April 1, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210401150544/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/545948-kinzinger-raises-22-million-for-reelection-fund-anti-trump-pac?amp. dead.
  23. News: Sweet. Lynn. Apr 16, 2021. Kinzinger: If Illinois Democrats carve up his district in remap, he may run for Senate or governor. Chicago Sun-Times. live. Apr 19, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210417210116/https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2021/4/16/22388284/adam-kinzinger-illinois-democrats-carve-up-district-remap-may-run-for-senate-or-governor. Apr 17, 2021.
  24. Web site: Lissau. Russell. 2021-04-16. Under attack from the right, U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger leading the fundraising pack in 16th District.
  25. Web site: Rep. Kinzinger to focus on fighting right-wing extremism, won't run for governor or Senate. January 5, 2022. Chicago Sun Times. Sweet, Lynn.
  26. News: Kapos. Shia. Chicago schools close again as standoff continues. January 10, 2022. Politico Illinois Playbook. January 18, 2022.
  27. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/il/illinois_governor_republican_primary-7644.html Real Clear Politics
  28. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-eLOGYUfb_GcVBSefzAxfftHqBbvPgYe/view Ogden & Fry (R)
  29. https://archive.today/20220624193725/https://twitter.com/DanProft/status/1540335427684638720 Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
  30. https://archive.today/20220618042430/https://twitter.com/mattsheehantv/status/1538010593755508736 Remington Research Group (R)
  31. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/TRF-IL-GOP-0614-Poll-Report.pdf The Trafalgar Group (R)
  32. https://capitolfax.com/2022/06/13/new-poll-supposedly-has-bailey-ahead-of-irvin-by-14-points/ Ogden & Fry (R)
  33. https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2022/6/10/23161925/sun-times-wbez-poll-republican-downstate-farmer-bailey-double-digit-lead-aurora-mayor-irvin-governor Public Policy Polling (D)
  34. https://www.kpvi.com/news/national_news/new-poll-shows-a-new-leader-in-the-gop-race-for-governor/article_f16cb5f3-ddef-5042-9851-07dae20c26e7.html Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
  35. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cO-lXt7FFO3SYPlzBUUCg4cWg8ZH9gl4/view 1892 Polling (R)
  36. https://www.scribd.com/document/573674828/GOP-race-for-Illinois-governor-Emerson-Poll-results Emerson College
  37. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KyTFr3RyWT15fkgy7F-1wb8Q1vnPVXUg/view Cor Strategies (R)
  38. https://capitolfax.com/2022/04/27/quickie-internal-tracking-poll-shows-irvin-with-big-lead-bailey-falling-fast-undecideds-still-in-first/ Cor Strategies (R)
  39. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017c-4fff-db91-affd-ffffe84f0000 Ogden & Fry (R)
  40. Web site: scottschluter.com. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20210624204023/https://scottschluter.com/ . June 24, 2021 .
  41. Web site: Candidates. April 4, 2023.
  42. Jeff Rense.com radio interview 5-21-2021
  43. Web site: January 13, 2022. Erich 'Mancow' Muller announces run for Illinois governor: report. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20220114000141/https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/erich-mancow-muller-announces-run-for-illinois-governor-report . January 14, 2022 .
  44. Web site: Candidate List GENERAL ELECTION - 11/8/2022 . 2022-07-28 . .
  45. Web site: 2022 Governor Race Ratings . The Cook Political Report . February 4, 2021.
  46. Web site: February 19, 2021 . Gubernatorial Ratings . Inside Elections.
  47. Web site: 2022 Gubernatorial race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 11, 2021.
  48. Web site: Illinois Governor Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  49. Web site: January 10, 2022 . 2022 Governor Races. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  50. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . August 22, 2022 . August 22, 2022.
  51. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  52. Web site: Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings . Szymanski . Joe . Elections Daily . November 7, 2022 . November 28, 2022.
  53. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/illinois/ FiveThirtyEight
  54. https://archive.today/20221108182936/https://twitter.com/ILPollster/status/1590001774249017344 Victory Research (R)
  55. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Tables_StateRaces_USA_07Nov2022.pdf#page=6 Research Co.
  56. https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_IL_banner_book_2022_10_d45afy.pdf Civiqs
  57. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/illinois-2022-democratic-incumbents-prtizker-and-duckworth-leads-shrink-as-republican-challengers-bailey-and-salvi-gain-support// Emerson College
  58. https://blogs.uofi.uis.edu/view/8598/1046374594 University of Illinois Springfield
  59. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1G4eRl8m0gDkdeRDzX5esUYoOAoOhtxgA/view Osage Research (R)
  60. https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2022/10/14/23403342/poll-suntimes-wbez-pritzker-bailey-duckworth-salvi-general-election-november-governor-senate Public Policy Polling (D)
  61. https://files.constantcontact.com/84ddd16b001/e1b77591-2022-4f79-97b0-008bfba7506b.pdf?rdr=true Research America
  62. https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=125777086911287&set=pcb.125777270244602 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
  63. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/illinois-2022-democratic-gov-j-b-pritzker-and-sen-tammy-duckworth-in-strong-position-in-re-election-bids/ Emerson College
  64. https://static.fox32chicago.com/www.fox32chicago.com/content/uploads/2022/09/Osage-Sept22-Brushfire-Toplines.pdf Osage Research (R)
  65. https://mobile.twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1567241289137094657/photo/1 Victory Research (R)
  66. https://theillinoize.substack.com/p/the-illinoize-exclusive-pritzker Victory Geek (D)
  67. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20220722_IL_VictoryResearch.pdf Victory Research (R)
  68. https://drive.google.com/file/d/17wB9JyY-KQmZPV0ma36Bzsem_E9i_2FL/view Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
  69. https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/illinois-capitol-news/pritzker-enjoys-comfortable-lead-over-gop-field-rabine-early-republican-frontrunner-pollster-says/ Victory Research (R)
  70. https://drive.google.com/file/d/180AczMAyouyxqW8VvXwBZtH3sJvIFYt8/view Victory Geek (D)
  71. https://archive.today/20220630034216/https://twitter.com/DanProft/status/1542278374118379526 Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
  72. NapervillePol. 1606121674952167425. Since the Illinois State Board of Election released the precincts I managed to calculate how statewide candidates in each congressional districts. Here's map for governor.

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