2022 Colorado gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2022 Colorado gubernatorial election
Country:Colorado
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Turnout:66.28%
Previous Election:2018 Colorado gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2026 Colorado gubernatorial election
Next Year:2026
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:File:Jared Polis official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Jared Polis
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate1:Dianne Primavera
Popular Vote1:1,468,481
Percentage1:58.53%
Nominee2:Heidi Ganahl
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Danny Moore
Popular Vote2:983,040
Percentage2:39.18%
Governor
Before Election:Jared Polis
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jared Polis
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2022 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jared Polis won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganahl in a landslide. Ganahl conceded on election night.[1] The primary election was held on June 28.[2]

Polis's 2022 victory marked the first time in American history that an openly gay politician was re-elected as the governor of a state.[3] Polis had the best performance for a re-elected Colorado governor since Bill Owens in 2002, the best for a Democrat since Roy Romer in 1990, and the highest raw vote total ever in a Colorado gubernatorial race.

Democratic assembly

Candidates

Nominated at assembly

Eliminated at assembly

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Declined

Results

American Constitution convention

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[17] July 29, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[18] July 22, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] October 12, 2022
Politico[20] April 1, 2022
align=left RCP[21] October 20, 2022
align=left Fox News[22] May 12, 2022
538[23] July 31, 2022
Elections Daily[24] November 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Jared
Polis (D)
Heidi
Ganahl (R)
Other
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 26 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202253.0%42.3%4.7%Polis +10.7
FiveThirtyEightJune 8 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202254.1%41.8%4.1%Polis +12.3
270ToWinNovember 1–7, 2022November 8, 202254.0%42.0%4.0%Polis +12.0
Average53.7%42.0%4.3%Polis +11.7
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Heidi
Ganahl (R)
OtherUndecided
co/efficient (R)November 3–7, 2022856 (LV)± 3.3%54%43%2%2%
Data for Progress (D)November 2–5, 20221,983 (LV)± 2.0%55%43%2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 30 – November 1, 20221,084 (LV)± 2.9%50%43%5%3%
Emerson CollegeOctober 26–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%54%40%4%3%
54%41%4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 25–27, 20221,174 (LV)± 2.9%50%42%6%3%
CU Boulder/YouGovOctober 11–19, 2022709 (LV)± 4.4%57%41%2%
CiviqsOctober 15–18, 2022600 (LV)± 5.0%55%40%2%3%
Global Strategy Group (D)October 6–11, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%52%34%6%8%
54%39%7%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–6, 20221,127 (RV)± 4.7%54%36%2%7%
983 (LV)± 5.0%54%39%3%5%
Data for Progress (D)October 3–6, 20221,005 (LV)± 3.0%56%39%3%2%
Keating Research/Magellan StrategiesSeptember 18–26, 20221,060 (LV)± 3.0%51%34%2%12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 20–24, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%49%41%4%6%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 18–19, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%53%36%2%9%
Remington Research Group (R)August 21–22, 20221,503 (LV)± 2.5%49%42%9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 15–19, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%47%42%6%5%
Global Strategy Group (D)June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%50%32%5%13%
54%37%9%
Global Strategy Group (D)February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%53%37%10%
Global Strategy Group (D)October 19–24, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%52%35%13%
Global Strategy Group (D)June 17–23, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%54%34%12%
Jared Polis vs. Greg Lopez
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Greg
Lopez (R)
Danielle
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%52%32%6%10%
53%39%8%
Jared Polis vs. Danielle Neuschwanger
Jared Polis vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)June 2–8, 2022800 (RV)± 3.4%54%38%8%
Global Strategy Group (D)February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%54%38%8%
Cygnal (R)January 12–13, 2022630 (LV)± 3.9%49%44%8%
Global Strategy Group (D)June 17–23, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%49%39%12%

Debates

! scope="col"
DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublican
Key: Participant  Absent  Non-invitee  Invitee Withdrawn
Jared PolisHeidi Ganahl
2Oct. 14, 2022CBS Colorado

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Polis won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[25]

DistrictPolisGanahlRepresentative
82%17%Diana DeGette
72%26%Joe Neguse
rowspan rowspan50%rowspan47%Lauren Boebert
43%55%Ken Buck
rowspan rowspan47%rowspan50%Doug Lamborn
rowspan rowspan63%rowspan35%Jason Crow
60%38%Ed Perlmutter (117th Congress)
Brittany Pettersen (118th Congress)
53%45%Yadira Caraveo

Analysis

Incumbent governor Jared Polis easily won re-election by 19.3%, a margin much larger than aggregate polling predicted. Polis piled up massive margins in the heavily populous North Central Colorado Urban Area, which contains the state capital Denver plus its surrounding suburbs Aurora, Thornton, Lakewood, and Broomfield; in addition to other major cities Boulder and Fort Collins, home to the University of Colorado and Colorado State University respectively. Outside the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins region, Polis also won a long row of counties along the Rocky Mountains from Routt in the north to La Plata in the south, which contains a number of liberal leaning ski resort towns like Telluride, Aspen, and Steamboat Springs. In Southern Colorado, a region historically known for coal mining, and home to a sizable Hispanic population, Polis managed to halt the decline in support for Democrats that had been taking place here since the mid-2010s in both state and federal races. Polis also won the relatively conservative city of Colorado Springs, the first Democrat to do so in recent history, along with greatly increasing his vote share in conservative-leaning urban counties compared to 2018.[26] Polis's definitive victory likely helped other Democrats down the ballot to win their races or win them by comfortable margins, allowing Democrats to keep control of the state government.[27]

Heidi Ganahl did best in the traditionally rural areas of Colorado bordering Kansas in the east, Utah in the west, and several larger counties including Weld (Greeley), Douglas (Castle Rock and Highlands Ranch), and El Paso (Colorado Springs). In the latter two counties, Ganahl significantly underperformed previous Republican nominees in these traditionally conservative urban counties, winning Douglas by 0.38% and El Paso by 3.97%, the closest either county had come to voting Democratic since 1994 and 1982 respectively. Ganahl failed to appeal to the large unaffiliated bloc of state voters along with political moderates. During her campaign, she highlighted her opposition to abortion (at odds with most Colorado voters), utilized incendiary right-wing rhetoric in regards to several social and cultural issues, and courted figures involved with pushing conspiracy theories about elections.[28] [29]

Prior to the election, an article by Daniel Strain from the University of Colorado reported that 71% of Colorado voters said their state's elections will be conducted "fairly and accurately", while 54% said the same for other elections across the United States. 53% of voters also disapproved of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization to overturn Roe v. Wade. 63% of voters said Joe Biden won the 2020 election, although Biden had a 52% disapproval among Centennial State voters compared to 39% who approved of him.[30]

Despite Biden's low approval, a Marist poll conducted in October found that amongst 1,221 Colorado adults, Governor Polis had a 50% approval, while Ganahl suffered from low name recognition, with 42% having either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her. The same poll also found that 34% of voters were most concerned about inflation, followed by preserving democracy at 29%, abortion at 16%, crime at 7%, followed by healthcare and immigration at 6% each.[31]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2022-11-08 . Colorado Gov. Jared Polis wins decisive re-election victory over challenger Ganahl . 2024-06-22 . The Denver Post . en-US.
  2. Web site: Primary Election FAQs. Colorado Secretary of State . State of Colorado . November 26, 2020 .
  3. News: June 28, 2022 . Colorado Governor Primary Election Results . en-US . The New York Times . October 3, 2022 . 0362-4331.
  4. Web site: Luning. Ernest. February 15, 2022. Gov. Jared Polis officially launches re-election campaign with statewide tour. February 26, 2022. Colorado Politics. en.
  5. Web site: Miller . Faith . Republican CU Regent Heidi Ganahl launches campaign for Colorado governor . Colorado Newsline . September 14, 2021.
  6. Web site: Election Night Reporting .
  7. Web site: Colorado Republican Heidi Ganahl names Danny Moore as her gubernatorial running mate . July 18, 2022 .
  8. News: Bartolo. James. August 16, 2021. Colorado governor candidate Greg Lopez and Rep. Stephanie Luck to speak in Swink. La Junta Tribune-Democrat. live. August 17, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210817041310/https://www.lajuntatribunedemocrat.com/story/news/2021/08/16/colorado-governor-candidate-greg-lopez-rep-stephanie-luck-visit-swink/8149404002/. August 17, 2021.
  9. News: Ashby. Charles. July 17, 2021. Candidates starting to line up in governor's race. Grand Junction Daily Sentinel. May 9, 2021. live. August 17, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210817042056/https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/western_colorado/candidates-starting-to-line-up-in-governors-race/article_c769ecca-af6b-11eb-8a2e-b75c8d53a48d.html. August 17, 2021.
  10. Web site: Here's Who's Running to Unseat Jared Polis in Colorado's 2022 Gov Race. Colorado Times Recorder. August 11, 2021. February 20, 2022.
  11. Web site: Jim Rundberg. Ballotpedia.
  12. Benson . Guy . Guy Benson . guypbenson . 1473099704871395330 . December 20, 2021 . THREAD Alright, folks — true story: In recent days, I've been contacted about rumors that I'm planning to run for Governor. Of Colorado. (Yes, this has actually happened). I feel a powerful duty to say "Go Broncos," and to respond to these intensifying whispers… https://t.co/JlrXOSRMq5 . en . January 24, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211221205018/https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1473099704871395330 . December 21, 2021 . live.
  13. Web site: Colorado's Ken Buck makes it official — he wants another term in Congress. April 19, 2021 .
  14. Web site: Colorado's only Republican governor elected within last 50 years says presidential race is over. KUSA.com. November 24, 2020.
  15. Web site: Neuschwanger Has Accepted Invitation to Become Constitution Party Nominee for Colorado Gov .
  16. Web site: Ex-Republican Danielle Neuschwanger launches gubernatorial run on third-party ticket. Luning. Ernest. Colorado Politics. April 30, 2022 .
  17. Web site: 2022 Governor Race Ratings . The Cook Political Report . February 4, 2021.
  18. Web site: February 19, 2021 . Gubernatorial Ratings . Inside Elections.
  19. Web site: 2022 Gubernatorial race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 11, 2021.
  20. Web site: Colorado Governor Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  21. Web site: January 10, 2022 . 2022 Governor Races. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  22. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
  23. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  24. Web site: Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings . Szymanski . Joe . Elections Daily . November 7, 2022 . November 28, 2022.
  25. Savicki . Drew . DrewSav . 1636083050097377282 . March 15, 2023 . Colorado Governor @jaredpolis won reelection last year by over 19%, winning CD3, and getting within 3% of winning the 5th District. Often described as a libertarian Democrat, Polis has proven appeal across the aisle. https://t.co/Q3s6ms6Wpn . en . March 25, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230315205950/https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1636083050097377282 . March 15, 2023 . live.
  26. Web site: Woodruff . Chase . 2023-05-02 . How tectonic political shifts could spell an upset in Colorado Springs mayor's race . 2023-06-22 . Colorado Newsline . en-US.
  27. Web site: Frank . John . November 9, 2022 . Gov. Jared Polis carries Democrats to big wins in Colorado . November 25, 2022 . Axios . en.
  28. Web site: Harden . Mark . November 9, 2022 . Election 2022: Polis wins 2nd term as Colorado governor . November 25, 2022 . . en.
  29. Web site: Wenzler . Jesse Paul, Elliott . November 9, 2022 . Jared Polis easily beats Heidi Ganahl to secure second term as Colorado's governor . November 25, 2022 . . en-US.
  30. Web site: November 2, 2022 . Colorado voters have faith in statewide elections, concerns about the economy . November 13, 2022 . CU Boulder Today . en.
  31. Web site: Home of the Marist Poll Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More . November 13, 2022 . maristpoll.marist.edu.