2022 Arizona gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
Next Year:2026
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:Katie Hobbs by Gage Skidmore 3.jpg
Nominee1:Katie Hobbs
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,287,891
Percentage1:50.32%
Nominee2:Kari Lake
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,270,774
Percentage2:49.65%
Governor
Before Election:Doug Ducey
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Katie Hobbs
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Turnout:62.6% 2.29pp[1]

The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election occurred on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Arizona, concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican former television journalist Kari Lake.[2]

Primaries were held on August 2 for both parties, with Lake winning the Republican nomination and Hobbs winning the Democratic nomination, making this the first gubernatorial election in Arizona history in which both major party candidates for governor were women. Hobbs became the fifth female governor of Arizona, with Arizona setting a record for the most female governors in American history.[3] [4] With the concurrent passage of Proposition 131, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona without a lieutenant governor on the ticket.[5]

Going into the election, most polling had Lake leading and analysts generally considered the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican. Nonetheless, Hobbs won with 50.32% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat elected governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006. This was the first gubernatorial election in the state since 2002 in which the margin of victory was less than 10 percent. Lake refused to concede and filed a post-election lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the results. Most of her lawsuit was rejected by all three levels of Arizona's state courts, with the remaining part dismissed at trial in May 2023. The race was riddled with voting machine issues, but did not prove to show any evidence of election fraud. [6]

This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. With a margin of 0.67%, it was the closest election in the state since the 1990–91 gubernatorial election and of the 2022 gubernatorial election cycle. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Hobbs won independent voters by 7 percentage points, which contributed to Lake's defeat.[7] [8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Steve
Gaynor		Kari
Lake		Karrin
Matt
Salmon		Kimberly
Yee		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[23] July 30 – August 1, 20221,064 (LV)± 2.9%–49%38%3%–4%6%
Emerson College[24] July 28–30, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%–46%47%––3%4%
Rasmussen Reports[25] July 27–28, 2022710 (LV)± 4.0%–43%34%––12%11%
OH Predictive Insights[26] July 27, 2022502 (LV)± 4.4%–51%33%2%–2%12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[27] July 25–27, 20221,071 (LV)± 2.9%–48%39%2%–4%7%
Alloy Analytics (R)[28] July 24–26, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%–45%35%2%–2%15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[29] July 22–24, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%–43%43%–––14%
Data Orbital (R)[30] July 18–20, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–44%32%5%–4%15%
Cygnal (R)[31] July 12–13, 2022419 (LV)± 4.8%–45%34%3%–4%14%
Data Orbital (R)July 5–7, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–39%35%2%–6%19%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[32] July 2–7, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%–39%35%––4%21%
OH Predictive Insights[33] June 30 – July 2, 2022515 (LV)± 4.3%–39%31%6%–3%21%
–40%35%––5%21%
June 28, 2022Salmon withdraws from the race and endorses Robson
Data Orbital (R)June 24–26, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–33%24%7%–4%33%
Moore Information Group (R)[34] June 22–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%–37%38%––11%14%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[35] June 14–16, 20221,068 (LV)± 2.9%–39%27%15%–3%17%
Data Orbital (R)[36] June 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–27%23%12%–4%31%
OH Predictive Insights[37] May 9–16, 2022281 (LV)± 5.9%–23%21%14%–4%38%
Cygnal (R)[38] April 28–30, 2022– (LV)––47%22%7%–5%19%
April 28, 2022Gaynor withdraws from the race
The Trafalgar Group (R)[39] April 25–28, 20221,064 (LV)± 3.0%6%38%27%11%–4%14%
OH Predictive Insights[40] April 4–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%3%29%22%11%––36%
Data Orbital (R)[41] April 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%7%35%22%12%––24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[42] March 26–27, 2022264 (LV)± 6.0%3%30%10%5%–6%46%
Alloy Analytics (R)[43] March 9–12, 2022433 (LV)± 4.7%4%37%15%9%––34%
Data Orbital (R)[44] March 2022– (LV)–4%43%13%15%––26%
Data Orbital (R)[45] February 11–13, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%8%37%9%13%––34%
January 15, 2022Yee withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights[46] January 11–13, 2022302 (RV)± 5.6%5%21%6%17%5%1%46%
OH Predictive Insights[47] November 1–8, 2021252 (RV)± 6.2%2%28%1%11%6%1%51%
OH Predictive Insights[48] September 7–12, 2021311 (RV)± 5.6%5%25%1%9%6%2%53%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[49] May 3–5, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%–10%0%8%4%9%66%
Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Matt Salmon

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Katie
Hobbs		Aaron
Lieberman		Marco
López Jr.		OtherUndecided
May 27, 2022Lieberman suspends his campaign
OH Predictive Insights[60] May 9–16, 2022261 (LV)± 6.1%43%9%8%–40%
GQR Research (D)[61] May 9–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%49%10%20%2%19%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)March 26–27, 2022234 (LV)± 6.4%27%1%9%3%57%
OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 11–13, 2022274 (RV)± 5.9%46%5%9%–39%
–23%27%–50%
OH Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021229 (RV)± 6.5%42%6%8%–44%
OH Predictive InsightsSeptember 7–12, 2021283 (RV)± 5.8%40%8%10%–42%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Eliminated in primary

Results

Write-in candidate Barry Hess was unopposed in the Libertarian primary, but failed to secure the minimum number of votes to receive the nomination.

Certified write-in candidates

General election

Lake was criticized for her denial of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. She had made her closeness to former president Donald Trump central to her campaign.[64] [65] Hobbs refused to debate Lake, which became a highly discussed issue of the campaign, resulting in criticism from Republicans.[66] On October 16, 2022, Lake twice refused to say that she would accept the result if she did not win the election: "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result."[67]

According to Politico, the race was considered a toss-up.[68] Lake called both the primaries and current round of elections "incompetent" and stated that "honest elections are needed" and that "the system we have right now does not work".[69]

Debates and forums

Katie Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake, though one debate-like forum was held.[70]

2022 Arizona gubernatorial forums
DateHostModeratorsLinkParticipants
<----> Participant   Absent   Non-invitee  <----> Invitee   Withdrawn
Kari LakeKatie Hobbs
1September 7, 2022Arizona Chamber of Commerce and IndustryDanny Seiden[71]
2October 23, 2022Clean ElectionsMike Broomhead[72]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[73] March 4, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[74] March 4, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[75] November 7, 2022
Politico[76] April 1, 2022
align=left RCP[77] January 10, 2022
align=left Fox News[78] October 25, 2022
538[79] October 26, 2022
Elections Daily[80] November 7, 2022

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31st, 2022
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Katie Hobbs (D)$14,796,583$14,703,952$527,969
Kari Lake (R)$15,855,394$15,381,454$1,592,293
Source: SeeTheMoney[81]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kari
Lake (R)		Katie
Hobbs (D)		UndecidedMargin
RealClearPolitics[82] November 1–7, 2022November 8, 202250.8%47.3%1.9%Lake +3.5
FiveThirtyEight[83] October 17 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202249.5%47.1%3.4%Lake +2.4
270ToWin[84] November 3–7, 2022November 8, 202248.9%46.9%4.2%Lake +2.0
Average49.7%47.1%3.2%Lake +2.6
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kari
Lake (R)		Katie
Hobbs (D)		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[85] November 5–7, 20221,094 (LV)± 2.9%51%47%–3%
Data Orbital (R)[86] November 4–6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%50%47%2%2%
Research Co.[87] November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%49%47%–4%
Data for Progress (D)[88] November 2–6, 20221,359 (LV)± 3.0%52%48%––
Targoz Market Research[89] November 2–6, 2022560 (LV)± 4.1%50%48%2%–
KAConsulting (R)[90] November 2–3, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%49%45%1%6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[91] November 2, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%51%48%–1%
HighGround Inc.[92] November 1–2, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%47%45%2%6%
Remington Research Group (R)[93] November 1–2, 20221,075 (LV)± 2.9%49%46%–5%
Big Data Poll (R)[94] October 31 – November 2, 20221,051 (LV)± 3.0%51%47%–2%
Marist College[95] October 31 – November 2, 20221,157 (RV)± 4.1%47%48%1%4%
1,015 (LV)± 4.3%48%49%1%2%
Civiqs[96] October 29 – November 2, 2022852 (LV)± 4.2%50%48%1%–
Alloy Analytics (R)[97] October 30 – November 1, 2022639 (LV)± 3.9%50%46%–4%
Emerson College[98] October 30 – November 1, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%2%2%
50%47%3%–
The Phillips Academy[99] October 29–30, 2022985 (LV)± 3.1%53%42%–4%
Fox News[100] October 26–30, 20221,003 (RV)± 3.0%47%46%3%4%
Wick Insights (R)[101] October 26–30, 20221,122 (LV)± 3.2%49%47%2%2%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[102] October 24–26, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%50%47%––
OH Predictive Insights[103] October 24–26, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%–4%
Siena College/NYT[104] October 24–26, 2022604 (LV)± 4.4%48%48%–4%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[105] October 19–26, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.1%42%40%3%14%
InsiderAdvantage (R)October 24–25, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%54%43%–2%
co/efficient (R)[106] October 20–21, 20221,111 (LV)± 3.1%49%45%–6%
Data Orbital (R)[107] October 17–19, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%47%44%3%6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[108] October 14–18, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%47%48%2%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[109] October 16–17, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%49%46%–4%
Data for Progress (D)[110] October 11–17, 2022893 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%–4%
Wick Insights (R)[111] October 8–14, 20221,058 (LV)± 3.1%47%47%2%3%
HighGround Inc.[112] October 12–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%45%46%2%7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[113] October 11, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%49%46%–4%
Ascend Action (R)[114] October 8–10, 2022954 (LV)± 3.2%46%45%5%5%
Big Data Poll (R)[115] October 2–5, 2022974 (LV)± 3.1%49%46%1%6%
YouGov/CBS News[116] September 30 – October 4, 20221,164 (RV)± 3.8%49%49%–1%
CNN/SSRS[117] September 26 – October 2, 2022900 (RV)± 4.4%44%49%7%–
795 (LV)± 4.6%46%49%5%–
Fox News[118] September 22–26, 20221,008 (RV)± 3.0%43%44%6%7%
Suffolk University[119] September 21–25, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%45%46%–8%
Marist College[120] September 19–22, 20221,260 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%<1%8%
1,076 (LV)± 3.9%49%46%–5%
Data for Progress (D)[121] September 15–19, 2022768 (LV)± 4.0%51%47%–3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[122] September 14–17, 20221,080 (LV)± 2.9%50%46%–4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[123] September 8–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%49%–3%
Survey Monkey (D)[124] September 6–9, 2022972 (RV)± 3.0%37%49%–14%
563 (LV)± 3.0%39%53%–8%
Emerson College[125] September 6–7, 2022627 (LV)± 3.9%46%46%2%6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[126] September 6–7, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%43%44%–13%
Echelon Insights[127] August 31 – September 7, 2022773 (RV)± 4.5%40%50%–10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[128] August 24–27, 20221,074 (LV)± 2.9%47%46%3%5%
RMG Research[129] August 16–22, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%46%44%–9%
Fox News[130] August 12–16, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.0%44%47%2%6%
American Viewpoint (R)[131] August 2022– (LV)–46%47%3%4%
Beacon Research (D)[132] July 5–20, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%38%43%2%12%
504 (LV)± 4.4%40%49%3%7%
TargetSmart (D)[133] June 28–30, 2022704 (LV)± 3.7%38%47%7%8%
GQR Research (D)[134] May 9–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%45%50%–4%
Data Orbital (R)[135] February 11–13, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%43%41%–16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136] November 10, 2021624 (RV)± 3.9%34%39%2%19%
592 (LV)± 4.0%37%41%2%18%
Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Katie Hobbs
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Karrin
Katie
Hobbs (D)		OtherUndecided
Beacon Research (D)July 5–20, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%37%42%4%13%
504 (LV)± 4.4%40%48%5%7%
TargetSmart (D)[137] June 28–30, 2022704 (LV)± 3.7%39%44%10%7%
GQR Research (D)[138] May 9–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%46%47%–4%
Data Orbital (R)February 11–13, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%37%42%–21%
Matt Salmon vs. Katie Hobbs
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Salmon (R)		Katie
Hobbs (D)		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital (R)February 11–13, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%39%41%–20%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 10, 2021624 (RV)± 3.9%31%40%4%17%
592 (LV)± 4.0%35%43%4%16%

Steve Gaynor vs. Katie Hobbs

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[139] March 7–15, 2022753 (RV)± 3.6%39%37%25%
OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 11–13, 2022855 (RV)± 3.4%39%35%26%
OH Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021713 (RV)± 3.7%39%37%24%
OH Predictive InsightsSeptember 7–12, 2021882 (RV)± 3.3%39%36%25%
Data for Progress (D)[140] September 15–22, 2020481 (LV)± 4.4%42%39%19%

Results

Hobbs defeated Lake by a margin of 0.67%, narrowly outperforming Joe Biden's 0.3% margin of victory in 2020 in Arizona. Hobbs won by more than 37,000 votes in Maricopa County, home to a majority of Arizona's population, which was larger than her statewide margin of 17,117 votes.

By county

CountyKatie Hobbs
Democratic		Kari Lake
Republican		Write-inMarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Apache17,73966.658,87033.3350.028,86933.3226,614
Cochise19,13741.0127,48158.89480.10-8,344-17.8846,666
Coconino34,38962.8420,29837.09400.0714,09125.7554,727
Gila7,67434.1814,76365.76130.06-7,089-31.5822,450
Graham3,08728.467,76071.5400.00-4,673-43.0810,847
Greenlee92037.611,52662.3900.00-606-24.782,446
La Paz1,64629.933,84769.9660.11-2,201-40.035,499
Maricopa790,35251.20752,71448.774690.0337,6382.441,543,535
Mohave20,36924.9961,12574.99160.02-40,756-50.0081,510
Navajo18,05844.6922,34055.28130.03-4,282-10.6040,411
Pima241,39860.57157,03439.401210.0384,36421.17398,553
Pinal60,01941.7383,77358.25340.02-23,754-16.52143,826
Santa Cruz8,72466.604,37133.3740.034,35333.2313,099
Yavapai44,31635.9778,83263.99430.03-34,516-28.02123,191
Yuma20,06343.5126,04056.4780.02-5,977-12.9646,111
Totals1,287,89150.321,270,77449.658200.0317,1170.672,559,485
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Hobbs won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[141]

DistrictHobbsLakeRepresentative elected
52%48%David Schweikert
rowspan rowspan46%rowspan54%Eli Crane
rowspan rowspan76%rowspan24%Ruben Gallego
56%44%Greg Stanton
rowspan rowspan43%rowspan57%Andy Biggs
rowspan rowspan52%rowspan48%Juan Ciscomani
rowspan rowspan67%rowspan33%Raúl Grijalva
45%55%Debbie Lesko
36%64%Paul Gosar

Dispute over results

On November 17, Lake refused to concede defeat, and announced she was assembling a legal team to challenge the results.[142] [143] Lake alleged voter disfranchisement due to ballot printing problems and long waiting lines in Maricopa County, which had elections run by local Republican officials Bill Gates and Stephen Richer.[144] In 70 out of 223 Maricopa County polling sites, voting machine ballots were printed too lightly to be read by tabulators; the problem was caused by a printer setting which had not shown widespread issues during prior testing.[145] If voters did not want to wait in line for the issue to be fixed, they could leave to vote at another Maricopa County polling site, with wait times for polling sites being shown online, and many polling sites had little to no waiting lines, stated Maricopa County election officials.[146] Alternatively, voters could drop their ballots into a secure box ("Box 3"), with these ballots being later tabulated at Maricopa County's elections headquarters, under monitoring from observers from both parties; ultimately, around 17,000 Maricopa County ballots were dropped into Box 3.[147]

Bill Gates, the Republican chair of Maricopa's Board of Supervisors, partially blamed the long lines on Arizona Republican Party chairwoman Kelli Ward for discouraging voters from using Box 3; she had claimed that Box 3 should not be used as "Maricopa County is not turning on their tabulators downtown today".[148] Lake herself told her supporters to stay in line to vote, while a lawyer for Lake's campaign assuaged concerns about using Box 3 to vote.[148] Lake's campaign filed a lawsuit on Election Day to extend voting for another three hours, but Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Tim Ryan declined to do so, stating: "The court doesn't have any evidence that any voter was precluded from their right to vote".[149]

While Lake alleged that Republican-dominated areas in Maricopa County were disproportionately affected by the printing problems, The Washington Post found that the percentage of registered Republicans in affected precincts (37%) was very close to the percentage of registered Republicans across Maricopa County (35%), and also found that some Democrat-dominated areas also faced the printing problems.[145] [150] According to the Associated Press: "Democrats voted overwhelmingly via ballots received in the mail. In-person Election Day votes heavily favored the GOP because Lake and other prominent Republicans had claimed it was more secure, which election experts dispute."[142] Meanwhile, The New York Times analyzed 45 of the claims of irregularities reported by voters, finding that in 34 of these 45 claims, the voters were able to cast their vote despite an inconvenience; while for the others, three raised problems with voter registration; seven gave unclear accounts as to what exactly happened; and only one said she had been denied the opportunity to vote, though she acknowledged she had arrived at her polling place at the time it closed.[148]

Arizona's Assistant Attorney General Jennifer Wright demanded that Maricopa County explain the election problems, stating: "These complaints go beyond pure speculation, but include first-hand witness accounts that raise concerns regarding Maricopa's lawful compliance with Arizona election law".[151]

Delays in certification of voting results

14 of Arizona's 15 counties certified the voting results by the November 28, 2022 deadline; the exception was Cochise County.[152] Despite no evidence of irregularities with vote counting, Cochise County's Republican officials delayed their certification vote to December 2, 2022, to accommodate a hearing on the certification of voting machines.[153] On November 21, Arizona's State Elections Director, Kori Lorick, had sent county officials' confirmation that the county's voting machines had been certified by the United States Election Assistance Commission in an accredited laboratory.[154] However, the county's officials insisted on hearing more from those who had alleged that the voting machines were not properly certified.[155]

On November 29, Hobbs, as secretary of state, sued the county for being unable to certify results by the deadline.[156]

On December 1, the Pima County Superior Court ruled that the Cochise County Board of Supervisors must hold an emergency meeting on the same day to certify and approve the canvass.[157] Hours later, the Board voted 2–0 to do so.[158]

Lawsuit

On December 9, 2022, after Arizona certified the election, Lake initiated a lawsuit seeking a court order to either overturn Hobbs' victory and declare Lake as the winner of the election, or redo the election in Maricopa County.[159] [160] Lake's complaint alleged that there were hundreds of thousands of illegal votes in the election, but no evidence was provided.[161] On December 19, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson dismissed eight of ten counts of Lake's lawsuit, regarding invalid signatures on mail-in ballots, incorrect certification, inadequate remedy, as well as violations of freedom of speech, equal protection, due process, the secrecy clause, and constitutional rights.[162] [163] The judge allowed the remaining two counts to go to trial, these being allegations that election officials intentionally interfered with Maricopa County ballot printers and with the chain of custody of Maricopa County ballots.[164] The judge ruled that Lake needed to prove during the trial that the above allegations were true, and that the alleged actions "did in fact result in a changed outcome" of the election.[165]

Lake's reaction to the judge's initial ruling was declaring: "Arizona, We will have our day in court!"[166] During the two-day trial, Northrop Grumman information security officer Clay Parikh, a witness called by Lake, testified that some ballots had printing errors that would cause tabulation issues, but also testified that these misprinted ballots would ultimately be counted after duplicates were made.[167] [168] On December 24, judge Thompson dismissed Lake's remaining case, as the court did not find clear and convincing evidence that misconduct was committed.[168] [169] [170] The judge wrote: "Every single witness before the Court disclaimed any personal knowledge of such [intentional] misconduct. The Court cannot accept speculation or conjecture in place of clear and convincing evidence".[171] [172] The judge further ruled that "printer failures did not actually affect the results of the election", while highlighting that one witness called by Lake testified that "printer failures were largely the result of unforeseen mechanical failure."[168] [171] Regarding the witness Richard Baris, a pollster, who alleged that potential voters were disenfranchised, the judge noted Baris' testimony that "nobody can give a specific number" of people who were disenfranchised, and called Baris' analysis "decidedly insufficient" in this case, because Baris' analysis showed that Hobbs "had a good chance of winning anyway" even after reversing the supposed disenfranchisement.[173]

On December 30, 2022, Lake appealed the ruling to the First Division of the Arizona Court of Appeals.[174] Lake also attempted to transfer her appeal directly to the Arizona Supreme Court, which denied this on January 4, 2023, ruling that there was "no good cause" to do so.[175] On February 16, a three-judge panel for the Arizona Court of Appeals affirmed Thompson's ruling; chief judge Kent Cattani wrote the opinion and two other judges, Maria Elena Cruz and Peter Swann, concurred.[176] [177] The appeals court found that "Lake’s only purported evidence" that long lines at voting centers "had any potential effect on election results was, quite simply, sheer speculation."[178] The appeals court noted that "Lake presented no evidence that voters whose ballots were unreadable by on-site tabulators were not able to vote", while highlighting that Lake's own cybersecurity expert testified to the contrary.[177] While Lake alleged that there was improper chain-of-custody documentation in Maricopa County, the appeals court decided that the lower court reasonably concluded that Lake failed to prove this allegation.[177] While Lake alleged that Maricopa County had improperly handled early ballots from election day, the appeals court ruled that even if this allegation was true, Lake "failed to present evidence, as opposed to speculation", that this affected the result of the election.[179] In summary, the appeals court wrote that the evidence presented in court showed that "voters were able to cast their ballots, that votes were counted correctly and that no other basis justifies setting aside the election results".[179]

Lake filed an appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court on March 1, 2023.[180] The Arizona Supreme Court issued a ruling on March 22, written by Arizona Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Brutinel, finding that the Appeals Court correctly dismissed six of Lake's seven legal claims, as these challenges of hers were "insufficient to warrant the requested relief under Arizona or federal law."[181] [182] For Lake's remaining legal claim, on signature verification, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the lower courts incorrectly interpreted her challenge as pertaining to signature verification policies themselves, instead of the application of such policies; thus this issue was sent back for Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson to reconsider.[181]

The Arizona Supreme Court in May 2023 employed "the extraordinary remedy of a sanction" against Lake's lawyer, which was a $2,000 fine, for having "made false factual statements to the Court".[183] [184] Within Lake's court filings was the claim that it was an "undisputed fact that 35,563 unaccounted for ballots were added to the total of ballots [at] a third party processing facility".[185] The Arizona Supreme Court responded that there is "no evidence that 35,563 ballots were" added, and further that Lake's claim had been disputed by Lake's legal opponents, so the claim of an "undisputed fact" is "unequivocally false".[183]

Later, in May 2023, Lake was granted a second trial by Judge Thompson, where Lake needed to prove that "Maricopa County’s higher level signature reviewers conducted no signature verification or curing", in violation of law, and that this changed the election result.[186] Thompson later acknowledged that the scope of Lake's claim of misconduct also extended to Maricopa County's lower level signature reviewers.[187] The result of the trial was that Lake's remaining claim on improper signature verification was dismissed; Judge Thompson ruled on May 22, 2023, that Lake had not provided "clear and convincing evidence or a preponderance of evidence" of misconduct in the election; instead the court received "ample evidence that — objectively speaking — a comparison between voter records and signatures was conducted in every instance [that Lake] asked the Court to evaluate."[188] [189] Thompson noted that Lake's attorneys earlier argued that Maricopa County did not perform signature verification, but later argued that signature verification was performed, but done too quickly.[188] Thompson concluded that it was possible for signature verification to be done quickly and properly when "looking at signatures that, by and large, have consistent characteristics".[190] Meanwhile, Lake's own witnesses testified to performing signature verification for Maricopa County.[188] Thompson did not sanction Lake for her final claim, stating that while there was no clear or convincing evidence for this claim, it was not necessarily "groundless".[191]

Independent investigation into printer problems

The results of an independent investigation into the 2022 election's printing problems was published in April 2023; the investigation was led by a retired chief justice of the Arizona Supreme Court, Ruth McGregor, who concluded that "the primary cause of the election day failures was equipment failure", and that no evidence gathered gave "clear indication that the problems should have been anticipated". McGregor also detailed: "Two-thirds of the general election vote centers reported no issues with misprinted ballots; approximately 94 percent of election day ballots were not faulty".[192] [193]

Arizona Supreme Court ruling

On November 7, 2024, the Arizona Supreme Court, on par with previous rulings by trial judges and the Arizona Court of Appeals, rejected Lake's final appeal to overturn the results of the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election and get a new election before 2026.[194] [195] [196]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

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  141. Results . docs.google.com .
  142. Web site: Cooper . Jonathan J. . 2022-11-17 . Lake refuses to concede in Arizona governor's race she lost . 2022-11-17 . . en.
  143. News: Berzon . Alexandra . Rutenberg . Jim . November 17, 2022 . Kari Lake says she is "exploring every avenue" to fight her loss, despite no sign of election-tilting problems. . . November 17, 2022.
  144. Monroe . Rachel . Rachel Monroe . Counting through the conspiracies in Arizona's midterms . November 21, 2022 . . November 12, 2022. ...these technical issues were cropping up in Maricopa County, which has been the epicenter of election conspiracies for the past two years. The local officials running the election—Bill Gates, the chair of the county board of supervisors, and Stephen Richer, the county recorder—were already under enormous scrutiny..
  145. News: Bronner . Lenny . Stanley-Becker . Isaac . Wingett Sanchez . Yvonne . November 13, 2022 . Arizona precincts with voting problems were not overwhelmingly Republican . . November 17, 2022.
  146. News: Schonfeld . Zach . November 17, 2022 . Kari Lake declines to concede, says she's assembling legal team . 2022-11-17 . The Hill.
  147. News: What's in Box 3? About 17,000 Maricopa County ballots that wouldn't scan . November 21, 2022 . . November 9, 2022.
  148. News: Kari Lake Claims Her Voters Were Disenfranchised. Her Voters Tell a Different Story. . The New York Times . November 19, 2022. Charles Homans. Alexandra Berzon. Jim Rutenberg . Ken Bensinger.
  149. News: Anglen . Robert . Judge rejects emergency GOP lawsuit to extend voting hours in Maricopa County . November 22, 2022 . . November 8, 2022.
  150. Web site: Wade . Natalie . 2022-11-17 . Posts mislead on Arizona ballot counting in Maricopa County . 2022-11-17 . . en.
  151. News: Stone . Kevin . Arizona AG's Office asks Maricopa County for answers about voting issues . November 22, 2022 . . November 21, 2022.
  152. News: Sanchez . Yvonne . Stanley-Becker . Isaac . Three weeks after election, Arizona remains in turmoil over results . November 29, 2022 . . November 28, 2022 . https://archive.today/20221129014038/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/28/arizona-cochise-county-maricopa-election/ . November 29, 2022.
  153. News: Cooper . Jonathan . GOP-controlled Arizona county refuses to certify election . November 29, 2022 . November 29, 2022.
  154. News: Simmons . Anne . Cochise County Board of Supervisors vote to postpone election results certification . November 29, 2022 . . November 29, 2022.
  155. News: Parker . Ned . So . Linda . Republicans in one Arizona county refuse to certify election results . November 29, 2022 . . November 29, 2022.
  156. Otten . Tori . 2022-11-29 . Katie Hobbs to Sue GOP-Controlled Arizona County Refusing to Certify the Election . The New Republic . 2022-11-29.
  157. Web site: 2022-12-01 . Judge orders Cochise County supervisors to certify the 2022 election . 2022-12-01 . KJZZ . en.
  158. Web site: 2022-12-01 . Cochise County complies with judge's order and certifies election results . 2022-12-01 . 12news.com . en-US.
  159. News: Richards . Zoë . Republican Kari Lake files lawsuit in bid to overturn Arizona election . December 10, 2022 . . December 10, 2022.
  160. Web site: Complaint in Special Action and Verified Statement of Election Contest Pursuant to A.R.S. § 16–672 . December 9, 2022 . Arizona Maricopa County Clerk of the Court . pdf.
  161. News: Billeaud . Jacques . Kari Lake challenges her defeat in Arizona governor's race . December 10, 2022 . . December 10, 2022 . The lawsuit filed late Friday by Lake ... also alleges hundreds of thousands of ballots were illegally cast, but there's no evidence that's true..
  162. News: Judge orders trial this week in Kari Lake's challenge to Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs' victory . December 20, 2022 . . December 19, 2022.
  163. Web site: CV 2022-095403: Lake v. Hobbs, et al. - MTD Ruling . Maricopa County Superior Court . December 19, 2022.
  164. News: Schonfield . Zach . Arizona judge dismisses most of Kari Lake's lawsuit challenging election results . December 20, 2022 . . December 19, 2022.
  165. News: Fischer . Howard . Kari Lake gets trial in election misconduct allegation, other claims tossed . December 20, 2022 . . December 19, 2022.
  166. News: Lah . Kyung . Maricopa judge allows narrow part of Kari Lake's Arizona election lawsuit to head to trial . December 25, 2022 . . December 20, 2022.
  167. News: Lake's expert witness: Misprinted ballots would ultimately have been counted . December 22, 2022 . . December 21, 2022.
  168. News: Berzon . Alexandra . Homans . Charles . Arizona Judge Rejects Kari Lake's Effort to Overturn Her Election Loss . December 25, 2022 . . December 24, 2022 . https://archive.today/20221224202313/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/24/us/politics/kari-lake-election-trial-arizona.html . December 24, 2022.
  169. News: 'The Court DOES NOT find clear and convincing evidence of misconduct': Judge rules against Kari Lake's bid to overturn Arizona's election results . December 25, 2022 . . . December 24, 2022.
  170. Web site: CV 2022-095403: Lake v. Hobbs, et al. - Under Advisement Ruling . Maricopa County Superior Court . December 24, 2022.
  171. News: Clary . Gregory . Cohen . Marshall . Swire . Sonnet . Bradner . Arizona judge rejects Kari Lake's election challenge and confirms Hobbs' victory . December 25, 2022 . . December 24, 2022.
  172. News: Mulvaney . Erin . Collins . Eliza . Kari Lake's Claims of Election Misconduct Rejected by Arizona Judge . December 25, 2022 . . December 24, 2022 . https://archive.today/20221225033013/https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/kari-lakes-claims-of-election-misconduct-thrown-out-by-arizona-judge-11671909113 . December 25, 2022.
  173. News: Judge throws out Kari Lake's challenge, affirms Katie Hobbs' win as governor . December 25, 2022 . . December 24, 2022.
  174. Web site: Mueller . Julia . Kari Lake appeals judge's dismissal of Arizona election challenge . . January 4, 2023 . December 27, 2022.
  175. News: 2022 Election: Kari Lake files appeals in election lawsuit after Hobbs was sworn in as Arizona Governor . February 17, 2023 . . January 4, 2023.
  176. News: Barchenger . Stacey . Arizona appeals court rejects Kari Lake's challenge of election loss to Gov. Katie Hobbs . . February 17, 2023 . February 16, 2023.
  177. News: Fischer . Howard . Appeals court rejects Kari Lake's latest election challenge . February 17, 2023 . . February 16, 2023.
  178. News: Richards . Zoë . Appeals court rejects Kari Lake's challenge of election loss to Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs . February 17, 2023 . . February 17, 2023.
  179. News: Coote . Darryl . Arizona appeals court rejects Kari Lake's election challenge . February 17, 2023 . . February 16, 2023.
  180. News: Billeaud . Jacques . Lake appeals loss in governor's race to state Supreme Court . March 2, 2023 . . March 2, 2023.
  181. News: Barchenger . Stacey . AZ Supreme Court rejects most of Kari Lake's election challenge . . March 24, 2023 . March 22, 2023.
  182. News: Vigdor . Neil . Arizona Supreme Court Turns Down Kari Lake's Appeal in Her Election Lawsuit . March 24, 2023 . https://archive.today/20230323192116/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/23/us/politics/kari-lake-arizona-supreme-court.html . March 23, 2023 . . March 23, 2023.
  183. News: Kari Lake's lawyer sanctioned over 'unequivocally false" statements . May 5, 2023 . . . May 4, 2023.
  184. News: Billeaud . Jacques . Kari Lake's lawyers fined in failed Arizona election lawsuit . May 5, 2023 . . May 4, 2023.
  185. News: Fischer . Howard . Kari Lake's lawyers seek to keep her from paying legal fees in election fight . May 5, 2023 . . April 7, 2023.
  186. News: Barchenger . Stacey . Kari Lake's latest election challenge on ballot envelope signatures is headed to trial . May 16, 2023 . . May 15, 2023 . https://archive.today/20230516122239/https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2023/05/15/kari-lakes-election-challenge-in-ariz-governors-race-heads-to-trial/70220131007/ . May 16, 2023.
  187. News: Tang . Terry . Billeaud . Jacques . Trial over Kari Lake's last challenge to loss in Arizona governor's race wraps up 1st day . May 25, 2023 . . May 18, 2023.
  188. News: Barchenger . Stacey . Judge rules against Kari Lake, affirms Hobbs as AZ governor in election signature verification trial . https://archive.today/20230523034637/https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2023/05/22/judge-rules-against-kari-lake-in-arizona-governor-election-trial/70244231007/ . May 23, 2023 . Arizona Republic . May 23, 2023 . May 22, 2023.
  189. News: Lah . Kyung . Arizona judge rejects Kari Lake's final 2022 election lawsuit . May 23, 2023 . . May 23, 2023.
  190. News: Duhownik . Joe . Kari Lake loses election challenge . May 23, 2023 . . May 22, 2023.
  191. News: Judge declines to sanction Kari Lake, attorneys in election challenge case . May 29, 2023 . . May 26, 2023.
  192. News: Sanchez . Yvonne . Stanley-Becker . Isaac . Printer glitches in Ariz. election not due to malfeasance, review finds . April 27, 2023 . . April 10, 2023 . https://archive.today/20230425225149/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/10/maricopa-county-printer-problems-2022-election/ . April 25, 2023.
  193. News: Cooper . Jonathan . Paper changes caused Maricopa County printer failure: report . April 27, 2023 . . April 11, 2023.
  194. News: AZ Supreme Court rejects Kari Lake’s last remaining bid to overturn her 2022 loss. Caitlin. Stevens. Arizona Mirror. November 7, 2024. November 11, 2024.
  195. News: Arizona Supreme Court blocks Kari Lake’s final appeal to overturn 2022 governor’s race. Howard. Fischer. Arizona Capitol Times. November 10, 2024. November 11, 2024.
  196. News: Arizona Supreme Court Rejects Kari Lake’s Seventh Bid to Overturn 2022 Election Results. Madeline. Greenberg. Matt. Cohen. Democracy Docket. November 8, 2024. November 11, 2024.

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