2021 Scottish Parliament election explained

Election Name:2021 Scottish Parliament election
Country:Scotland
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 Scottish Parliament election
Previous Year:2016
Outgoing Members:5th Scottish Parliament
Elected Members:6th Scottish Parliament
Next Election:Next Scottish Parliament election
Next Year:Next
Seats For Election:All 129 seats to the Scottish Parliament
Majority Seats:65
Opinion Polls:Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election
1Blank:Constituency vote
2Blank:% and swing
3Blank:Regional vote
4Blank:% and swing
Turnout:Constituency – 63.5% 7.7pp
Regional – 63.5% 7.7pp
Leader1:Nicola Sturgeon
Leader Since1:14 November 2014
Party1:Scottish National Party
Leaders Seat1:Glasgow Southside
Last Election1:63 seats
Seats Before1:61
Seats1:64
Seat Change1: 1
1Data1:1,291,204
2Data1:47.7% 1.2%
3Data1:1,094,374
4Data1:40.3% 1.4%
Leader2:Douglas Ross
Party2:Scottish Conservatives
Leaders Seat2:Highlands and Islands
Leader Since2:5 August 2020
Last Election2:31 seats
Seats Before2:30
Seats2:31
1Data2:592,526
2Data2:21.9% 0.1%
3Data2:637,131
4Data2:23.5% 0.6%
Leader3:Anas Sarwar
Party3:Scottish Labour
Leaders Seat3:Glasgow
Leader Since3:27 February 2021
Last Election3:24 seats
Seats Before3:23
Seats3:22
Seat Change3: 2
1Data3:584,392
2Data3:21.6% 1.0%
3Data3:485,819
4Data3:17.9% 1.2%
Party4:Scottish Greens
Leader Since4:1 August 2019 (Slater) /
22 November 2008 (Harvie)
Leaders Seat4:Lothian (Slater) /
Glasgow (Harvie)
Last Election4:6 seats
Seats Before4:5
Seats4:8
Seat Change4: 2
1Data4:34,990
2Data4:1.3% 0.7%
3Data4:220,324
4Data4:8.1% 1.5%
Leader5:Willie Rennie
Party5:Scottish Liberal Democrats
Leaders Seat5:North East Fife
Last Election5:5 seats
Seats Before5:5
Seats5:4
Seat Change5: 1
1Data5:187,816
2Data5:6.9% 0.9%
3Data5:137,151
4Data5:5.1% 0.1%
Map Size:450px
First Minister
Posttitle:First Minister after election
Before Election:Nicola Sturgeon
Before Party:Scottish National Party
After Election:Nicola Sturgeon
After Party:Scottish National Party

The 2021 Scottish Parliament election took place on 11 May 2021,[1] under the provisions of the Scotland Act 1998. All 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament were elected in the sixth election since the parliament was re-established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Senedd election in Wales, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland. Parliament was officially dissolved on 5 May, the day before the election.[2] The main parties fielding candidates were: the Scottish National Party (SNP), led by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon; the Scottish Conservatives, led by Douglas Ross; Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar; the Scottish Liberal Democrats, led by Willie Rennie, and the Scottish Greens, jointly led Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. Of those five parties, three had changed their leader since the 2016 election.

Newer parties set up since the 2016 election included: Reform UK Scotland, led by Michelle Ballantyne; the Alba Party, led by former First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond; and All for Unity, led by George Galloway. These parties only competed for seats on the regional lists. They all failed to win any seats.

The election resulted in the SNP winning a fourth consecutive term in government. They won 64 seats, a net increase of one. The SNP gained Edinburgh Central, Ayr, and East Lothian, as well as winning the largest share of the popular vote and the largest number of constituency seats in any Scottish Parliament election (62).[3] The Greens won eight seats, their best result to date at a Scottish Parliament election, while the Conservatives retained second place with 31 seats. Labour had its worst-ever result with 22 seats, and the lowest share of the vote in both constituency and list votes for either Westminster or Holyrood since 1910. The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) also had their worst showing at a Holyrood election to date, winning only four seats.[4]

The SNP and the Greens, both of which support Scottish independence, won 72 of the 129 seats in the parliament. Unionist parties (that is, those against independence) achieved a small majority of votes in constituency contests, whilst pro-independence parties achieved a small majority in the regional lists.[5] The turnout was 63.5%, which is the highest ever at a Scottish Parliament election. Following the election, the third Sturgeon government was formed. It initially consisted of just the SNP, but later included Slater and Harvie of the Scottish Greens as junior ministers after the two parties negotiated a power-sharing agreement.[6]

Background

Electoral events

2016 Scottish Parliament election

At the 2016 election, the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) lost its parliamentary majority but was able to continue governing under Nicola Sturgeon as a minority administration.[7] At the same election, the Conservatives overtook Labour to place second, whilst the Greens overtook the Liberal Democrats to place fourth.[7] No representatives of minor parties were elected to the Parliament.[7]

Other elections

Four further elections affecting Scotland took place between the 2016 and 2021 Scottish Parliament elections:

Leadership changes

Three parties underwent leadership changes during the parliamentary term leading up to the election. In August 2017, Kezia Dugdale resigned as leader of Scottish Labour and was replaced by Richard Leonard.[12] In January 2021, less than four months before the election, Leonard resigned.[13] Anas Sarwar won the subsequent leadership election.[14]

In August 2019, Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie became co-leaders of the Scottish Greens.[15]

Also in August 2019, Ruth Davidson resigned as leader of the Scottish Conservatives and was succeeded by Jackson Carlaw.[16] Carlaw resigned as leader in July 2020,[17] with Douglas Ross winning the subsequent leadership election unopposed.[18]

Expansion of the electorate

This is the first election after the passage of the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act, which extended the franchise to those serving prison sentences of 12 months or less.[19] [20] In 2005, the United Kingdom was found in breach of Protocol 1, Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights in regards of prisoner voting rights in the European Court of Human Rights as a result of Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2); the Act brings Scotland in line with the court ruling.[21]

This act also allows all foreign nationals resident in Scotland to vote and all those with indefinite leave to remain or equivalent status, including pre–settled status in the United Kingdom, to stand as candidates.[22] [23] A BBC News report in April 2021 said that there were around 55,000 foreign nationals who had been given the right to vote as a result of these changes, including 20,000 refugees.[23]

Date

Under the Scotland Act 1998, an ordinary general election to the Scottish Parliament would normally have been held on the first Thursday in May four years after the 2016 election, i.e. in May 2020.[24] This would have clashed with the proposed date of a UK general election, although this became a moot point when a snap UK general election was held in June 2017 (a further UK general election was held in December 2019).[25] In November 2015, the Scottish Government published a Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill, which proposed to extend the term of the Parliament to five years.[25] That Bill was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 25 February 2016 and received Royal Assent on 30 March 2016, setting the new date for the election as 6 May 2021.[1]

The Scottish Elections (Dates) Act did not affect the legal possibilities for the Parliament to be dissolved earlier, those being;

Nevertheless, no extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general election would be in addition to the ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case it would supplant it. This would not affect the year in which the subsequent ordinary general election would be held.[26]

On 16 November 2020, the Scottish General Election (Coronavirus) Bill was introduced. This draft legislation stated that while the next election was intended to be held on 6 May 2021, the Presiding Officer would gain the power to postpone the election by up to six months if the spread of COVID-19 made that date impractical.[27] The bill also proposed to change the date of dissolution to the day before the election, meaning that the Parliament could be recalled during the election period.[27] The bill was enacted and received Royal Assent on 29 January 2021.[28] Parliament was in fact recalled on 12 April, to allow MSPs to mark the death of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh.[29]

Retiring MSPs

MSPConstituency/RegionFirst electedPartyDate announced
Lothian2011Labour[30] [31]
West Scotland2011[32] [33]
Highlands and Islands2011Green[34]
Central Scotland1999Labour[35]
Edinburgh Central2011Conservative[36]
Stirling1999SNP[37]
Uddingston and Bellshill2011[38]
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross2016[39]
Argyll and Bute1999[40]
Banffshire and Buchan Coast2001
Aberdeen Donside2011Independent[41]
Clydesdale2007SNP[42]
Central Scotland2003Conservative[43]
Highlands and Islands2007Labour[44]
Falkirk East2011SNP[45]
East Lothian1999Labour[46]
Glasgow2016Conservative[47]
Clydebank and Milngavie1999SNP[48]
East Kilbride1999[49]
Renfrewshire North and West2011Independent[50]
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire1999SNP[51]
Airdrie and Shotts1999[52]
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley2016[53]
Glasgow Kelvin1999[54]
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine2006[55]
North East Scotland2016Conservative
1999Liberal Democrats
West Scotland1999Presiding Officer[56]
North East Scotland2011Labour[57]
1999[58]
Glasgow1999[59]
Central Scotland2016Conservative[60]
Bill BowmanNorth East Scotland2016[61]
Tom Mason2017

James Dornan announced in February 2020 his intention to retire at the next Holyrood election,[62] but reversed this decision some months later.[63]

Parties

See also: List of political parties in Scotland.

The SNP, Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats fielded candidates in all 73 constituencies and all eight of the regional ballots.[64] Five other parties contested both all eight regions and at least one constituency: the Scottish Greens (12 constituencies) the Scottish Libertarian Party (9), the Scottish Family Party (7), UKIP (5) and the Freedom Alliance (4). Four parties – Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party, Alba Party, All for Unity, and Reform UK – stood in all eight electoral regions, but did not contest any constituencies.

Six other parties contested some of the regions and at least one constituency: TUSC (3 regions and 3 constituencies), Restore Scotland (2 regions, 4 constituencies), Scotia Future (2 of each), the Communist Party of Britain (2 regions and 1 constituency), the Reclaim Party (1 of each) and the Vanguard Party (also 1 of each). Five other parties – Independent Green Voice (5 regions), Renew (5), the Social Democratic Party (2), Women's Equality (2) and Animal Welfare (1) – contested some of the regions, but not any constituencies.

The Scottish Socialist Party, which participated in the last election as part of the electoral alliance RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, opted not to participate in this election, for the first time since its inception.

List of parties contesting all regional ballots

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2016 Scottish Parliament election resultSeats at dissolution
Votes (%)Seats
ConstituencyRegional
Social democracy
Scottish independence
Nicola Sturgeon
MSP for Glasgow Southside
46.541.7
Scottish ConservativesConservatism
Unionism
Douglas Ross
Not an MSP
22.022.9
Scottish LabourSocial democracy
Unionism
Anas Sarwar
MSP for Glasgow region
22.6 19.1
Scottish GreensGreen politics
Scottish independence
Patrick Harvie (co-leader)
MSP for Glasgow region
0.66.6
Lorna Slater (co-leader)
MSP for Lothian region
Liberalism
Federalism
Willie Rennie
MSP for North East Fife
7.8 5.2
Reform UK ScotlandRight-wing populism
Euroscepticism
Michelle Ballantyne
MSP for South Scotland region
UKIP ScotlandRight-wing populism
Anti-devolution
Donald Mackay[65]
Not an MSP
2.0
Scottish Libertarian PartyLibertarianism
Scottish independence
Tam Laird
Not an MSP
0.00.1
Scottish Family PartyAnti-abortion
Social conservatism
Richard Lucas
Not an MSP
Did not exist
Alba PartyScottish nationalism
Scottish independence
Alex Salmond
Not an MSP
Did not exist
George Galloway
Not an MSP
Did not exist
John Mortimer
Not an MSP
Did not exist

Election system, seats and regions

See main article: List of Scottish Parliament constituencies and electoral regions (2011–present). The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament is 129.

The Scottish Parliament uses an additional member system (AMS), designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are 8 regions, each sub-divided into smaller constituencies. There is a total of 73 constituencies. Each constituency elects one MSP by the plurality (first past the post) system of election. Each region elects 7 additional MSPs using an additional member system. A modified D'Hondt method, using the constituency results, is used to elect these additional MSPs.[66] [67]

The boundaries of the 73 constituencies last changed as of the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, as did the configuration of the electoral regions used to elect "list" members of the Scottish Parliament.[68] These revisions were the outcome of the First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions conducted by the Boundary Commission for Scotland; the Review was announced on 3 July 2007 and the Commission published its final report on 26 May 2010.

The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 general election, when the 72 former UK Parliament constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004). The size difference between Westminster and Holyrood boundaries was due to diverge further upon the implementation of the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which has not been voted upon by Parliament. The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies for a UK total of 650 MPs commenced in England in 2021 and will complete for the UK by 2023.

Campaign

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021. The Scottish Conservatives launched their campaign the same day, with a focus on promoting Scotland's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.[69]

On 26 March 2021, the Alba Party was publicly launched by former First Minister of Scotland and SNP leader, Alex Salmond.[70] [71] [72] [73] The party announced plans to stand list-only candidates. Two sitting SNP MPs later defected to the Alba party.[74] The Action for Independence party, which had intended to pursue a similar list-only strategy, announced they would stand down their candidates in favour of Alba.[75] Sturgeon said she would refuse to have any dealings with Salmond unless he apologises to the women who had accused him of harassment.[76]

BBC Scotland announced that it would broadcast two debates between the main parties' leaders; the first was aired on 30 March 2021 and was moderated by the corporation's Scotland editor Sarah Smith.[77] The debate included key questions from the audience on the COVID-19 recovery, climate change, and a second referendum on Scottish independence. The second BBC debate was held on 4 May 2021 and was moderated by BBC Scotland's political editor Glenn Campbell.[78]

Commercial broadcaster STV held their leaders' debate on 13 April, moderated by their political editor Colin Mackay.[79] [80] [81] NUS Scotland held a debate on specifically on student issues which was moderated by NUS Scotland president, Matt Crilly on 20 April which featured the three main party leaders.

On 1 April, Planet Radio announced that their Clyde 2 station would be hosting a Leaders Phone-In with the main parties' leaders every Sunday before the election. Douglas Ross was the first to be interviewed on 4 April,[82] with Willie Rennie following on 18 April. Whilst Nicola Sturgeon was set to be interviewed on 11 April, campaigning was delayed following the death of Prince Philip and her phone-in was instead held on 22 April. Patrick Harvie followed on 25 April; and Anas Sarwar had the final phone-in on 2 May.[83]

Following Prince Philip's death on 9 April, the SNP, Conservatives, Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats said they would suspend election campaigning until further notice.[84] [85] [86] After discussion between the parties, they agreed to resume campaigning after a special parliamentary session on 12 April to make tributes and to pause activities again on the day of the funeral (17 April).[29] [87]

Election debates

2021 Scottish Parliament election debates
DateOrganisersModerator(s)
SNPConservativesLabourGreensLib DemsAudience
30 MarchBBC ScotlandVirtual[88]
13 AprilSTVColin Mackay[89]
20 AprilNUS ScotlandMatt CrillyS
S
Virtual[90]
22 AprilBBC (Question Time Special)Fiona BruceS
Virtual[91]
27 AprilChannel 4 NewsKrishnan Guru-Murthy[92]
4 MayBBC ScotlandGlenn Campbell[93]

Opinion polling

See main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Graph of opinion poll results prior to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Trendlines are 30-day moving averages.

Key SNP – Scottish National Party
Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
Labour – Scottish Labour
Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
Green – Scottish Greens
UKIP – UK Independence Party
Reform – Reform UK
SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
Alba – Alba Party
AFU – All for Unity

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2016 result to change hands. The most marginal opportunity for the Greens was in Glasgow Kelvin, which they needed a 7.1% swing to gain. The Liberal Democrats' best bet was Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, which required a 6.1% swing. The SNP ended up holding both of these constituencies.

SNP targets

RankConstituencyWinning party
in 2016
Swing to
gain %
SNP's place
in 2016
Result
1Dumbarton0.172nd
2Edinburgh Central0.90
3Ayr1.00
4Aberdeenshire West1.28
5East Lothian1.45
6Edinburgh Southern1.47
7Dumfriesshire1.70
8Eastwood2.22
92.27
10Edinburgh Western3.73

Conservative targets

RankConstituencyWinning party
in 2016
Swing to
gain %
Cons' place
in 2016
Result
1Perthshire South and Kinross-shire1.972nd
2Edinburgh Pentlands3.68
3Angus North and Mearns4.21
44.26
5Moray4.30
6Edinburgh Southern4.743rd
7Perthshire North4.902ndSNP hold

Labour targets

RankConstituencyWinning party
in 2016
Swing to
gain %
Labour's place
in 2016
Result
1Eastwood2.563rd
2Edinburgh Central4.193rd

Results

See also: Results of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.

Central Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Central Scotland constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
Airdrie and ShottsNeil GraySNP hold
Coatbridge and ChrystonFulton MacGregor
Cumbernauld and KilsythJamie Hepburn
East KilbrideCollette Stevenson
Falkirk EastMichelle Thomson
Falkirk WestMichael Matheson
Hamilton, Larkhall and StonehouseChristina McKelvie
Motherwell and WishawClare Adamson
Uddingston and BellshillStephanie Callaghan
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

Glasgow

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Glasgow constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
Glasgow AnnieslandBill KiddSNP hold
Glasgow CathcartJames Dornan
Glasgow KelvinKaukab Stewart
Glasgow Maryhill and SpringburnBob Doris
Glasgow PollokHumza Yousaf
Glasgow ProvanIvan McKee
Glasgow ShettlestonJohn Mason
Glasgow SouthsideNicola Sturgeon
RutherglenClare Haughey
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

Highlands and Islands

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Highlands and Islands constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
Argyll and ButeJenni MintoSNP hold
Caithness, Sutherland and RossMaree Todd
Inverness and NairnFergus Ewing
MorayRichard Lochhead
Na h-Eileanan an IarAlasdair Allan
OrkneyLiam McArthurLiberal Democrat hold
ShetlandBeatrice Wishart
Skye, Lochaber and BadenochKate ForbesSNP hold
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

Lothian

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Lothian constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
Angela ConstanceSNP hold
Edinburgh CentralAngus RobertsonSNP gain from Conservative
Edinburgh EasternAsh DenhamSNP hold
Edinburgh Northern and LeithBen Macpherson
Edinburgh PentlandsGordon MacDonald
Edinburgh SouthernDaniel JohnsonLabour hold
Edinburgh WesternAlex Cole-HamiltonLiberal Democrat hold
LinlithgowFiona HyslopSNP hold
Midlothian North and MusselburghColin Beattie
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

Mid Scotland and Fife

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Mid Scotland and Fife constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
Clackmannanshire and DunblaneKeith BrownSNP hold
CowdenbeathAnnabelle Ewing
DunfermlineShirley-Anne Somerville
KirkcaldyDavid Torrance
Mid Fife and GlenrothesJenny Gilruth
North East FifeWillie RennieLiberal Democrat hold
Perthshire NorthJohn SwinneySNP hold
Perthshire South and Kinross-shireJim Fairlie
StirlingEvelyn Tweed
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

North East Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: North East Scotland constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
Aberdeen CentralKevin StewartSNP hold
Aberdeen DonsideJackie Dunbar
Aberdeen South and North KincardineAudrey Nicoll
Aberdeenshire EastGillian Martin
Aberdeenshire WestAlexander BurnettConservative hold
Angus North & MearnsMairi GougeonSNP hold
Angus SouthGraeme Dey
Banffshire & Buchan CoastKaren Adam
Dundee City EastShona Robison
Dundee City WestJoe FitzPatrick
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

South Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: South Scotland constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
AyrSiobhian BrownSNP gain from Conservative
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon ValleyElena WhithamSNP hold
ClydesdaleMàiri McAllan
DumfriesshireOliver MundellConservative hold
East LothianPaul McLennanSNP gain from Labour
Ettrick, Roxburgh and BerwickshireRachael HamiltonConservative hold
Galloway and West DumfriesFinlay Carson
Kilmarnock and Irvine ValleyWillie CoffeySNP hold
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and LauderdaleChristine Grahame
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

West Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: West Scotland constituencies
ConstituencyElected memberResult
Clydebank and MilngavieMarie McNairSNP hold
Cunninghame NorthKenneth Gibson
Cunninghame SouthRuth Maguire
DumbartonJackie BaillieLabour hold
EastwoodJackson CarlawConservative hold
Greenock and InverclydeStuart McMillanSNP hold
PaisleyGeorge Adam
Renfrewshire North and WestNatalie Don
Renfrewshire SouthTom Arthur
Strathkelvin and BearsdenRona Mackay
|-! colspan="2" style="width: 150px"|Party! Elected candidates! style="width: 40px"|Seats! style="width: 40px"|+/−! style="width: 50px"|Votes! style="width: 40px"|%! style="width: 40px"|+/−%|-

Constituency seat changes compared to 2016

Gain! colspan="2"
Loss
AyrSNPConservative
East LothianLabour
Edinburgh CentralConservative

MSPs who lost their seats

Party
Michelle Ballantyne[94] South ScotlandReform
Claudia Beamish[95] South ScotlandLabour
Maurice CorryWest ScotlandConservative
James Kelly[96] GlasgowLabour
Gordon LindhurstLothianConservative
Joan McAlpine[97] South ScotlandSNP
John Scott[98] AyrConservative
Paul WheelhouseSouth ScotlandSNP
Andy Wightman[99] Lothian (contested Highlands and Islands)Scottish Greens (contested as independent)

Analysis

The SNP won 64 seats, falling one seat short of an overall majority.[100] Some commentators put this down to unionists voting tactically for Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem candidates.[101] [102] According to psephologist John Curtice, "Denying the SNP an overall majority was, indeed, a collective effort – at least on the part of Unionist voters, who on the constituency ballot demonstrated a remarkable willingness to back whichever pro-Union party appeared to be best placed locally to defeat the SNP. [...] These patterns had a decisive impact on the outcome."[103] This was apparent in seats like Dumbarton, where incumbent Labour MSP Jackie Baillie saw her 0.3% majority increased to 3.9%, whilst both the Conservative and Lib Dem vote share decreased.[104]

In The National, Emer O'Toole questioned whether social media adverts with "a lack of transparency over funding" may have cost the SNP key seats as well.[105] The day before the election, The Guardian reported that anti-independence groups and campaigners had "spent tens of thousands of pounds in the past week", including on Facebook adverts, calling for tactical voting to prevent the SNP getting a majority.[106] One of these groups was Scotland Matters, whose founder, Professor Hugh Pennington said, "Across the country as a whole, tactical voting is obviously one of the ways forward to basically harm the SNP, not to put too fine a point on it."[106]

Additionally, the Greens claimed that they may have been deprived of two seats because of Independent Green Voice (IGV), a far-right party which has nothing to do with the Scottish Greens (who support Scottish independence). IGV received nearly 10,000 votes, including 2,210 in Glasgow (where the Greens were 1,000 short of gaining a seat) and 1,690 in South Scotland (where the Greens fell 100 short). This potentially prevented pro-independence parties from having a 19-seat majority instead of 15 seats.[107]

The Scottish and Welsh Election Studies 2021, revealed on 13 June, found that around a third of Scottish voters who decided to vote differently in the run-up to the election did so to stop another party, and that 90% of those who did this did so in a bid to prevent the SNP winning the seat. Rob Johns, Professor in Politics at the University of Essex, said: "[W]e found a lot more switching than we had expected. The polls had suggested that not much was changing and obviously the overall election result was almost eerily similar to 2016. That can mean that nobody has changed their mind or it can mean lots of people have changed their mind – but these have cancelled out as people have moved in opposing directions. We found there was quite a lot more of that than we had expected."[108]

Voter demographics

Data from Savanta ComRes:[109]

The 2021 Scottish Parliament constituency vote
Social groupSNPConLabLib DemOthers
Total vote48221857
Gender
Male43262470
Female52162453
Age
16–3458102435
35–5451162553
55+38312290

Campaign spending

PartyExpenses[110] [111]
£1,468,343
£1,359,435
£1,176,410
£434,354
£231,902
£214,371
£54,504
£32,908
£29,620
£13,753
£10,199
£8,230
£7,387
£6,420

Aftermath

Election of the First Minister
Ballot →18 May 2021
Required majority →50 out of 99 valid votes
Sources[112]

Nicola Sturgeon was nominated as First Minister by a vote of the parliament on 18 May 2021.[113] Her cabinet was approved by the parliament two days later and thus the Third Sturgeon government, a minority government, was formed.[114]

On 3 August 2021, it was reported that a co-operation agreement between the SNP and the Greens was "on the brink of being finalised" and could see Green MSPs take ministerial positions in government.[115] On 19 August, the power-sharing agreement between the two parties was announced.[6] Under the terms of the agreement, the Greens have two MSPs appointed as junior ministers in the government who are invited to attend cabinet meetings when their portfolios are being discussed. The Greens signed up to the bulk of the SNP's policies, but in areas of disagreement such as international relations and fee-paying schools the two parties are free to publicly disagree.[6] The agreement states that the Greens support the government on votes of confidence and supply.[116]

A deal that would see Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater made ministers was revealed on 26 August, subject to being voted upon by Green Party members.[117] [118] Two days later, members of both parties overwhelmingly voted in favour of the deal.[119]

See also

Other elections in the UK which were held on the same day:

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Scottish Elections (Dates) Act 2016 . legislation.gov.uk . 7 May 2016 . 25 October 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161025035903/http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2016/13/enacted?view=plain . live .
  2. News: Holyrood to stop sitting on March 25 ahead of Scottish election . Scott . Macnab . 5 February 2021 . . Edinburgh . 2021-03-25 . 16 February 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210216005550/https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/holyrood-stop-sitting-march-25-ahead-scottish-election-3124688 . live .
  3. Web site: Scottish election 2021: Will the SNP win a majority? Seven key questions the Scottish Parliament vote will answer . Marlborough . Conor . Swanson . Ian . 6 May 2021 . MSN . 7 May 2021 . 7 May 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210507194142/https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/scottish-election-2021-will-the-snp-win-a-majority-seven-key-questions-the-scottish-parliament-vote-will-answer/ar-BB1goncs . live .
  4. News: SNP win election one seat short of majority. 8 May 2021. BBC News. 9 May 2021. 13 February 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220213152016/https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56995136. live.
  5. News: Tactical vote reinforces Scotland's great divide . John . Curtice . The Times . 10 May 2021 . 10 May 2021 . 7 June 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210607015137/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tactical-vote-reinforces-scotlands-great-divide-vwtlwxstg . live .
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  11. Web site: Election results 2019: Boris Johnson returns to power with big majority . BBC News . 13 December 2019 . 31 July 2020 . 1 August 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200801172413/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50765773 . live .
  12. Web site: Richard Leonard wins Scottish Labour leadership in decisive victory. Carrell. Severin. 18 November 2017. The Guardian. 22 May 2020. 18 November 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171118120522/https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/18/richard-leonard-voted-scottish-labour-leader. live.
  13. News: Richard Leonard quits as Scottish Labour leader . BBC News . 2021-01-14 . 2021-01-14 . en-GB . 14 January 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210114160849/https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-55666234 . live .
  14. News: Rodgers. Sienna. Anas Sarwar elected as new leader of Scottish Labour Party. 27 February 2021. LabourList. 10 May 2021. en-GB. 22 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210522125311/https://labourlist.org/2021/02/anas-sarwar-elected-as-new-leader-of-scottish-labour-party/. live.
  15. News: Scottish Greens elect Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater as co-leaders. 1 August 2019. The Herald. 9 May 2021. 10 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210510143350/https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17809713.scottish-greens-elect-patrick-harvie-lorna-slater-co-leaders/. live.
  16. Web site: Jackson Carlaw elected leader of Scottish Conservatives . 2020-02-14 . Holyrood Website . 2020-05-22 . 11 March 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200311022857/https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,jackson-carlaw-elected-leader-of-scottish-conservatives_15118.htm . live .
  17. Web site: Jackson Carlaw quits as Scottish Conservative leader . 2020-07-30 . HeraldScotland . 30 July 2020 . 31 July 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200731223707/https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18618412.jackson-carlaw-quits-scottish-conservative-leader/ . live .
  18. Web site: Douglas Ross confirmed as Scottish Conservative leader . BBC News . 23 August 2020 . 5 August 2020 . 5 August 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200805122907/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53655975 . live .
  19. Web site: MSPs back plans to give refugees in Scotland the vote. 2020-01-16. Holyrood Website. 2020-05-22. 18 January 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200118132907/https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,msps-back-plans-to-give-refugees-in-scotland-the-vote_14974.htm. live.
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  21. Web site: Prisoners' voting rights: developments since May 2015. House of Commons Library. Neil. Johnson. 2 April 2020. 31 July 2020. 17 July 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200717170120/https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7461/. live.
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  23. Web site: Scottish election 2021: Right to vote 'changes my life', says Syrian refugee . David . Shanks . BBC News . 23 April 2021 . 23 April 2021 . 22 April 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210422230303/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-56829089 . live .
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  29. Web site: Scottish election 2021: Holyrood recalled as campaign paused after duke death . BBC News . 9 April 2021 . 10 April 2021 . 9 April 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210409193953/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56689201 . live .
  30. Web site: Holyrood 2021 election: Which MSPs are standing down? . . 30 November 2020 . 30 November 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210516214045/https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53903780 . 16 May 2021.
  31. Web site: Two MSPs quit Scottish Labour front bench team . BBC News . 28 May 2019 . 9 November 2019 . 27 June 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190627155446/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48435192 . live .
  32. Web site: MSP Mary Fee to retire. 16 August 2019. Arran Banner. 23 August 2020. 10 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210510144804/https://www.arranbanner.co.uk/2019/08/16/msp-mary-fee-to-retire/. live.
  33. MaryFeeMSP. 1159124606688661504. It has been an honour to be a Member of the Scottish Parliament and I am proud of the work I have done on equalities and for constituents in West Scotland. Thank you to every person I have worked with and to people in West Scotland for this fantastic opportunity to serve. Fee . Mary . Mary Fee . 7 August 2019.
  34. News: John Finnie to stand down at 2021 Scottish Parliament election . Holyrood Magazine . Liam . Kirkaldy . 27 August 2019 . 14 October 2019 . 14 October 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20191014111003/https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,john-finnie-to-stand-down-at-2021-scottish-parliament-election_10724.htm . live .
  35. News: Central Scotland MSP to stand down from Scottish Parliament before next election. Daily Record. Judith. Tonner. 3 September 2019. 9 November 2019. 9 November 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191109211237/https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/central-scotland-msp-stand-down-19323179. live.
  36. News: Ruth Davidson reveals she will not stand as an MSP again in 2021. Daily Record. Torcuil. Crichton. 22 November 2019. 27 November 2019. 27 November 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191127201412/https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ruth-davidson-reveals-not-stand-20939026. live.
  37. News: Bruce Crawford to step down at 2021 Scottish election . Holyrood Magazine . 18 February 2020 . 18 February 2020 . 18 February 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200218113805/https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,bruce-crawford-to-step-down-at-2021-scottish-election_15130.htm . live .
  38. News: Nutt. Kathleen. SNP MP Richard Lyle to stand down ahead of 2021 election. The National. 20 February 2020. 25 February 2020. 25 February 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200225222431/https://www.thenational.scot/news/18247528.richard-lyle-rejects-don-corleone-comparison/. live.
  39. News: Fourth SNP MSP quits at Holyrood election . Tom . Gordon . The Herald . 27 February 2020 . 27 February 2020 . 27 February 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200227115742/https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18266025.fourth-snp-msp-quits-holyrood-election/ . live .
  40. Web site: Two leading SNP figures to step down from Holyrood . BBC News . 1 March 2020 . 1 March 2020 . 1 March 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200301140523/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51696368 . live .
  41. Web site: Former minister Mark McDonald to stand down at next election . BBC News . 5 March 2020 . 6 March 2020 . 5 March 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200305220513/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51761994 . live .
  42. Web site: SNP minister Aileen Campbell quits for better 'work-life balance' . BBC News . 8 March 2020 . 8 March 2020 . 8 March 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200308140529/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51790745 . live .
  43. News: Central Scotland Conservative MSP Margaret Mitchell will not seek re-election . Daily Record . 18 April 2020 . 29 April 2020 . 25 April 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200425042600/https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/central-scotland-conservative-msp-margaret-21886600 . live .
  44. News: Kirkaldy. Liam. 9 June 2020. David Stewart to stand down as MSP. Holyrood Magazine. 11 June 2020. 11 June 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200611121933/https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,david-stewart-to-stand-down-as-msp_15611.htm. live.
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  47. News: Tory MSP Adam Tomkins to stand down at 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Daily Record. Chris. McCall. 17 July 2020. 18 July 2020. 18 July 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200718165951/https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tory-msp-adam-tomkins-stand-22373486. live.
  48. News: Clydebank MSP Gil Paterson to retire at next election. Clydebank Post. Tristan. Stewart-Robertson. 31 July 2020. 31 July 2020. 1 August 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200801145701/https://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/18620436.clydebank-msp-gil-paterson-retire-next-election/. live.
  49. Web site: Mullen . Stacey . East Kilbride MSP Linda Fabiani to step down at next Holyrood election . . 23 August 2020 . 12 August 2020 . 18 August 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200818215112/https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/18644988.east-kilbride-msp-linda-fabiani-step-next-holyrood-election/ . live .
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  51. Web site: SNP minister Roseanna Cunningham to stand down as MSP . BBC News . 22 August 2020 . 22 August 2020 . 4 December 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201204010203/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53873493 . live .
  52. Web site: Former SNP minister Alex Neil to stand down as MSP . BBC News . 23 August 2020 . 23 August 2020 . 5 September 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200905131215/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53880367 . live .
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  54. Web site: Sandra White becomes 13th SNP politician to stand down. 27 August 2020. www.thenational.scot. 27 August 2020. 27 August 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200827235345/https://www.thenational.scot/news/18681602.holyrood-elections-sandra-white-becomes-13th-snp-politician-stand/. live.
  55. Web site: Aberdeen SNP MSP Maureen Watt to stand down from Holyrood in 2021. 7 September 2020. pressandjournal.co.uk. 7 September 2020. 8 September 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200908100117/https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2470615/aberdeen-snp-msp-maureen-watt-to-stand-down-from-holyrood-in-2021/. live.
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  58. News: Lewis Macdonald: MSP is stepping down from Holyrood next year. Tom. Peterkin. 30 November 2020. Press and Journal. 30 November 2020. 30 November 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201130112002/https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2690278/lewis-macdonald-msp-standing-down/. live.
  59. JohannLamont. Lamont. Johann. 1367460268389851140. I am definitely standing down. Wiki notwithstanding. . 4 March 2021. 10 March 2021.
  60. ScotTories. Scottish Conservatives. 1368570842913898505. @ScotTories candidate list rankings announcement
    Here is Central Scotland https://t.co/Q1E84TYxBH. 7 March 2021. 7 March 2021.
  61. ScotTories. Scottish Conservatives. 1369269308946341889. @ScotTories candidate list rankings
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