2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election explained

Election Name:	Ohio's 15th congressional district special election
Country:	Ohio
Type:	by-election
Ongoing:	no
Ongoing:	yes-->
Previous Election:	2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio#District 15
Previous Year:	2020
Next Year:	2022
Next Election:	2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio#District 15
Election Date:	November 2, 2021
Turnout:	32.25%
Nominee1:	Mike Carey
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	94,501
Percentage1:	58.3%
Nominee2:	Allison Russo
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	67,588
Percentage2:	41.7%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:	Steve Stivers
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Mike Carey
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

On May 16, 2021, Representative Steve Stivers resigned from his seat in the United States House of Representatives to become president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.^[1] Following Stivers' official communication of his intent to resign, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced that the special election to fill the remainder of his term would be held on November 2, 2021, with the primary election held on August 3, concurrent with the special election in Ohio's 11th congressional district.^{[2] [3]} In the general election on November 2, Republican nominee Mike Carey defeated Democratic nominee Allison Russo by roughly 17 percentage points.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mike Carey, vice president of government affairs at American Consolidated Natural Resources

Eliminated in primary

• John Adams, owner of Green Valley Chemicals^[4]
• Eric M. Clark, LPN at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
• Thad Cooperrider, former Perry County commissioner
• Ruth Edmonds, advisory board member at Ohio's Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives^{[5] [6]}
• Ron Hood, former state representative
• Thomas Hwang, owner of The Virtues Golf Club
• Stephanie Kunze, state senator^[7]
• Jeff LaRe, state representative
• Bob Peterson, state senator^[8]
• Omar Tarazi, attorney and Hilliard city councilmember^{[9] [10]}

Withdrawn

• Brian Stewart, state representative^[11]

Declined

• Jeff Fix, Fairfield County commissioner

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Allison Russo, state representative^{[13] [14]}

Eliminated in primary

• Greg Betts

Declined

• Tina Maharath, state senator^[15]
• Joel Newby, attorney and nominee for Ohio's 15th congressional district in 2020^[16]
• Steve Patterson, mayor of Athens (endorsed Russo)^[17]
• Michael Stinziano, Franklin County auditor

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[18]		August 4, 2021
align=left	Inside Elections^[19]		October 27, 2021
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[20]		August 4, 2021

Results

County	Mike Carey Republican		Allison Russo Democratic		Margin		Total votes
	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"			data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%
			3,611		37.0		6,160		63.0		2,549		26.0		9,771
	Clinton		5,972		78.5		1,632		21.5		4,340		57.0		7,604
	Fairfield		21,011		65.4		11,117		34.6		9,894		30.8		32,128
			918		84.5		168		15.5		750		69.0		1,086
			29,842		45.2		36,230		54.8		6,388		9.6		66,072
	Hocking		3,756		68.8		1,701		31.2		2,055		37.6		5,457
	Madison		6,535		72.7		2,450		27.3		4,085		45.4		8,985
	Morgan		2,533		74.4		873		25.6		1,660		48.8		3,406
	Perry		5,487		72.5		2,054		27.2		3,433		45.3		7,541
	Pickaway		8,321		73.8		2,956		26.2		5,365		47.6		11,277
			4,633		73.9		1,638		26.1		2,995		47.8		6,271
	Vinton		1,882		75.6		609		24.4		1,273		51.2		2,491
Total	94,501	58.3	67,588	41.7	26,913	16.6	162,089

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Franklin (largest municipality: Columbus)

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

• Mike Carey (R) for Congress
• Allison Russo (D) for Congress

Notes and References

1. News: 2021-04-19. Rep. Steve Stivers will resign from Congress to join Ohio Chamber. WCMH-TV . 2021-04-19.
2. News: Clay. Jarrod. 2021-04-26. Gov. DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District. WTTE . 2021-04-26.
3. News: Governor DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District. Highland County Press. 2021-04-26. April 26, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210426215554/https://highlandcountypress.com/Content/In-The-News/Headlines/Article/Governor-DeWine-calls-special-election-for-Ohio-s-15th-Congressional-District/2/73/68264. dead.
4. News: 12 Republicans, two Democrats vie for 15th Congressional District seat to replace Steve Stivers. The Columbus Dispatch. May 17, 2021 . May 17, 2021.
5. 'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Ruth Edmonds (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'. Twitter. CATargetBot. May 5, 2021. 1390095389215256577.
6. Web site: Faith-Based and Community Initiatives. May 9, 2021.
7. News: Bischoff. Laura A.. Five Republicans in central Ohio already seeking to replace Rep. Steve Stivers in Congress. The Columbus Dispatch . 2021-04-29.
8. News: State Senator Bob Peterson announces candidacy for U.S. Congress . Highland County Press . April 20, 2021 . April 21, 2021 . April 21, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210421051724/https://highlandcountypress.com/Content/In-The-News/In-The-News/Article/State-Senator-Bob-Peterson-announces-candidacy-for-U-S-Congress/2/20/68118 . dead .
9. 'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Omar Tarazi (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'. Twitter. CATargetBot. May 7, 2021. 1390763543843139584.
10. Web site: Law Office of Attorney Omar Tarazi. May 9, 2021.
11. 1400868115211243520. BrianStewartOH. I am deeply grateful to the volunteers, friends, donors - and most of all, my family - who helped us get #StewartForCongress off to an amazing start. However, it's become clear that this is not yet my time, and I am suspending my campaign. My full statement is below. #OH15. Brian Stewart. 2021-06-04 . 2021-06-04.
12. https://web.archive.org/web/20210626130817/https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1408544144461533189 Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
13. News: Bischoff. Laura A.. Rep. Steve Stivers is out; Central Ohio politicos lining up to replace him. The Columbus Dispatch . 2021-04-19.
14. 1392109930006695940. Russo4Ohio. We all want our kids and grandkids to have the opportunities they need to put down roots and raise a family of their own here in Ohio someday. Together, we can build an economy that works for all of us. #Russo4Ohio15. Allison Russo. May 11, 2021. May 11, 2021.
15. State Sen. @TinaMaharath (D) will NOT run for #OH15 to replace Steve Stivers, will stay in the Ohio Senate. "There is more work that needs to be done.". JMBorchardt. 1391752297466802183. 10 May 2021 . 2021-05-10.
16. Web site: www.joelnewby.com - D-15 2021 Special Election Statement. joelnewby.com . 2021-04-25.
17. News: Behrens. Cole. Patterson bows out of consideration for Stivers' U.S. congress seat. 2021-05-03. 2021-05-03.
18. News: OH-11 and OH-15 First Thoughts: These Are Biden and Trump's Parties . Dave Wasserman . August 4, 2021 . December 7, 2021 .
19. Web site: House Ratings. Rothenberg. Stuart. Stuart Rothenberg. The Rothenberg Political Report. October 27, 2021. December 9, 2021.
20. Web site: Kondik. Kyle. Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021. August 5, 2021. August 4, 2021.
21. https://www.nbc4i.com/news/your-local-election-hq/oh-15-poll-republican-mike-carey-leads-democrat-allison-russo-among-likely-voters/ Emerson College