2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Country:West Virginia
Flag Year:2020
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Turnout:63.25%
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:5
Popular Vote1:545,382
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Joe Biden
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Delaware
Running Mate2:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:235,984
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] West Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. West Virginia had five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump easily carried West Virginia on Election Day by 38.9 points, down from 42.1 points in 2016. Prior to the election, all 16 news organizations declared West Virginia a safe, or likely, red state. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican carried the state while losing re–election.

With 68.62% of its vote, this would prove to be Trump's second strongest state in 2020, only behind Wyoming, and overall would be the largest share of the vote won by any presidential candidate in West Virginia.

Since West Virginia has only become a very safe Republican stronghold in recent elections, Biden is only the third Democrat ever to win the presidency without carrying the state, after Barack Obama and Woodrow Wilson.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for May 12, 2020. In April, they were moved to June 9 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]

Democratic primary

Vice President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary and received all of West Virginia's 28 pledged delegates, as well as all six unpledged PLEO (party leaders and elected officials) delegates, to the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump won the Republican primary and received all of West Virginia's 35 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[5]

Mountain (Green) primary

West Virginia's Green Party affiliate conducted an online party-run primary, utilizing the state's original primary date of May 12, 2020, as its deadline.

West Virginia Mountain (Green) Party presidential primary[6]
CandidatePercentageNational delegates
Howie Hawkins78.3%5
David Rolde8.7%0
Jesse Ventura (write-in)8.7%0
Dario Hunter4.3%0
Total100.00%5

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[7] September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[8] September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] July 14, 2020
Politico[10] September 8, 2020
RCP[11] August 3, 2020
Niskanen[12] July 26, 2020
CNN[13] August 3, 2020
The Economist[14] September 2, 2020
CBS News[15] August 16, 2020
270towin[16] August 2, 2020
ABC News[17] July 31, 2020
NPR[18] August 3, 2020
NBC News[19] August 6, 2020
538[20] September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summaryAggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Other/
undecided
Margin
270 to Win[21] October 13–23, 2020November 3, 202038.5%55.5%6.0%Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEight[22] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202033.5%62.1%4.4%Trump +28.6
Average36.0%58.8%5.2%Trump +22.8

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen
Howie
Hawkins
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[23] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020816 (LV)± 5%67%32%––––
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20201,359 (LV)–66%32%––––
Triton Polling and Research/WMOV[24] Oct 19–21, 2020544 (LV)± 4.2%58%38%–––4%
Research America Inc./West Virginia Metro News[25] Oct 6–9, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%53%39%4%1%–3%
Triton Polling & Research/WMOV[26] Sep 29–30, 2020525 (RV)± 4.3%56%38%–––5%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 2020516 (LV)–62%36%–––2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020496 (LV)–65%32%–––2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020494 (LV)–67%32%–––1%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020264 (LV)–72%27%–––1%
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth[27] Jan 7–9, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%66%31%–––3%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		Undecided
WPA Intelligence/Club for GrowthJan 7–9, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4 %66%29%5%
Tulchin Research[28] Oct 6–13, 2017400 (LV)± 4.9%46%48%6%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Results

Trump won West Virginia, carrying the popular vote in each of the state's 55 counties.[30]

By congressional district

Trump won all three congressional districts.[31]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
68%30.3%David McKinley
65.4%32.8%Alex Mooney
73.1%25.5%Carol Miller

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Barbour5,11676.62%1,45721.82%1041.56%3,65954.80%6,677
Berkeley33,27964.57%17,18633.35%1,0742.08%16,09331.22%51,539
Boone6,81675.62%2,04122.65%1561.73%4,77552.97%9,013
Braxton4,12072.74%1,45725.72%871.54%2,66347.02%5,664
Brooke7,54570.81%2,94727.66%1641.53%4,59843.15%10,656
Cabell21,72158.14%14,99440.13%6451.73%6,72718.01%37,360
Calhoun2,36479.57%56819.12%391.31%1,79660.45%2,971
Clay2,67979.61%64119.05%451.34%2,03860.56%3,365
Doddridge2,61984.46%43514.03%471.51%2,18470.43%3,101
Fayette11,58068.64%5,06330.01%2271.35%6,51738.63%16,870
Gilmer2,01275.58%59922.50%511.92%1,41353.08%2,662
Grant4,87188.40%60711.02%320.58%4,26477.38%5,510
Greenbrier10,92568.93%4,65529.37%2701.70%6,27039.56%15,850
Hampshire8,03379.65%1,93919.22%1141.13%6,09460.43%10,086
Hancock9,80671.05%3,79027.46%2061.49%6,01643.59%13,802
Hardy4,85976.73%1,38121.81%931.46%3,47854.92%6,333
Harrison20,68367.89%9,21530.25%5671.86%11,46837.64%30,465
Jackson10,09374.71%3,20723.74%2091.55%6,88650.97%13,509
Jefferson15,03354.26%12,12743.77%5451.97%2,90610.49%27,705
Kanawha46,39856.41%34,34441.76%1,5081.83%12,05414.65%82,250
Lewis5,78277.52%1,53820.62%1391.86%4,24456.90%7,459
Lincoln6,01276.77%1,71121.85%1081.38%4,30154.92%7,831
Logan10,53480.87%2,33317.91%1591.22%8,20162.96%13,026
Marion16,30063.18%8,90134.50%5982.32%7,39928.68%25,799
Marshall10,43574.11%3,45524.54%1901.35%6,98049.57%14,080
Mason8,49175.77%2,52622.54%1891.69%5,96553.23%11,206
McDowell5,14878.87%1,33320.42%460.71%3,81558.45%6,527
Mercer19,23776.53%5,55622.10%3421.37%13,68154.43%25,135
Mineral10,04077.97%2,66020.66%1761.37%7,38057.31%12,876
Mingo8,54485.22%1,39713.93%850.85%7,14771.29%10,026
Monongalia20,80349.44%20,28248.20%9942.36%5211.24%42,079
Monroe5,06878.09%1,34520.72%771.19%3,72357.37%6,490
Morgan6,53775.17%1,99822.98%1611.85%4,53952.19%8,696
Nicholas8,27977.86%2,22620.93%1281.21%6,05356.93%10,633
Ohio12,35462.08%7,22336.30%3231.62%5,13125.78%19,900
Pendleton2,78276.03%82022.41%571.56%1,96253.62%3,659
Pleasants2,74278.54%69920.02%501.44%2,04358.52%3,491
Pocahontas2,89572.21%1,04726.12%671.57%1,84846.09%4,009
Preston11,19076.79%3,16321.70%2201.51%8,02755.09%14,573
Putnam20,03470.29%7,87827.64%5892.07%12,15642.65%28,501
Raleigh24,67374.51%7,98224.10%4591.39%16,69150.41%33,114
Randolph8,67371.09%3,36227.56%1651.35%5,31143.53%12,200
Ritchie3,64985.20%58613.68%481.12%3,06371.52%4,283
Roane4,21373.10%1,45525.25%951.65%2,75847.85%5,763
Summers4,07472.95%1,44825.93%631.12%2,62647.02%5,585
Taylor5,47774.18%1,79624.33%1101.49%3,68149.85%7,383
Tucker2,84173.89%93824.40%661.71%1,90349.49%3,845
Tyler3,22682.23%63116.08%661.69%2,59566.15%3,923
Upshur7,77176.01%2,25622.07%1961.92%5,51553.94%10,223
Wayne12,58574.26%4,08824.12%2741.62%8,49750.14%16,947
Webster2,75981.10%61017.93%330.97%2,14963.17%3,402
Wetzel4,99374.87%1,53923.08%1372.05%3,45451.79%6,669
Wirt2,13480.44%46617.57%531.99%1,66862.87%2,653
Wood27,20270.17%10,92628.19%6371.64%16,27641.98%38,765
Wyoming7,35385.58%1,15713.47%820.95%6,19672.11%8,592
Totals545,38268.62%235,98429.69%13,3651.69%309,39838.93%794,731

Analysis

West Virginia, which was solidly Democratic territory for much of the 20th century, has consistently voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000. Republicans started making gains in the state in the 21st century due to championing of environmentalism by Democrats such as 2000 Democratic nominee Al Gore, which challenged entrenched coal-mining interests.[32] [33]

West Virginia gave Trump his second-highest vote share in 2020, swapping places with Wyoming, after having been Trump's strongest state by vote share in 2016.[34] This is the best Republican performance in state history, surpassing the record set in the previous election. West Virginia was one of two states where Trump won every county, the other being Oklahoma.[35] The closest county in the state, and the only one Trump won without a majority of the vote, was Monongalia County, home to Morgantown and the main campus of West Virginia University. Biden's losing margin of 1.24% in Monongalia marked the closest a Democrat has come to winning any county in West Virginia since 2008. This was the third consecutive presidential election where every county within the state voted Republican, but the first since 1996 in which the Democratic vote share increased relative to the preceding election. Biden received 40% of the vote only in 4 counties - Monongalia; Kanawha County, home to the state capital and largest city Charleston; Cabell County, home to Marshall University and to the state's second largest city Huntington; and Jefferson County, home to Washington, D.C., exurbs.[30]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in West Virginia came from voters who prioritized protecting and expanding production of fossil fuels, such as coal, who comprised 58% of voters and broke for Trump by 90%.[36] Trump's strongest region was southern West Virginia. This coal-mining, union-heavy region was once among the most heavily Democratic places in the nation; Logan County, for example, broke 72% of its ballots for Bill Clinton in 1996, 61% for Al Gore in 2000, 52% for John Kerry in 2004, and even 51% for George McGovern in his only statewide county win in 1972; but by 2008, John McCain flipped it to the Republican column with 54% of the vote, which increased to 68% for Mitt Romney in 2012 and by 2016 and 2020, it had voted 79.6% and 80.9% for Trump, respectively.[31]

During the same election cycle, incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito was re-elected by a margin slightly larger than Trump's, beating out Democrat Paula Jean Swearengin by 43.3 points.[37]

Notes

Partisan clients

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  3. News: Gov. Jim Justice announces WV Primary Election will move to June 9, schools will remain closed through April 30. WBOY-TV. April 1, 2020.
  4. Web site: West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2020. November 3, 2020. The Green Papers.
  5. Web site: West Virginia Republican Delegation 2020. The Green Papers. June 10, 2020.
  6. Web site: Results - 2020 Presidential Primary. Mountain Party . May 12, 2020 . May 12, 2020.
  7. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  8. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  9. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  10. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  11. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  12. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  13. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  14. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  15. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  16. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  17. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  18. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020 . en. Montanaro . Domenico .
  19. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  20. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  21. Web site: West Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin. 270toWin.com.
  22. Web site: West Virginia : President: general election Polls. Ryan. Best. Aaron. Bycoffe. Ritchie. King. Dhrumil. Mehta. Anna. Wiederkehr. June 28, 2018. FiveThirtyEight.
  23. Web site: Candidate preference. www.tableau.com.
  24. Web site: Triton Polling and Research/WMOV.
  25. Web site: West Virginians favor Trump over Biden for president, latest poll shows. Brad. McElhinny. October 13, 2020.
  26. Web site: Poll shows incumbents leading races for surveyed WV voters. October 6, 2020.
  27. Web site: WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth.
  28. Web site: Tulchin Research.
  29. Web site: Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll: Trump approval/Trump Vs. Warren in 11 states. zogbyanalytics.com.
  30. News: West Virginia Election Results 2020. November 10, 2020. The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
  31. Web site: 2020 Presidential General Election Results - West Virginia.
  32. News: Deep in Virginia's craggy coal country, they saw Trump as their only hope. Washington Post. 2016-11-12.
  33. News: Coal country West Virginia feels forgotten by politics. Thomas. Zoe. 2016-11-02. BBC News. en-GB. 2016-11-12.
  34. Web site: West Virginia Election Results 2016. The New York Times. 2016-11-12.
  35. Web site: Oklahoma election results . November 27, 2020.
  36. News: 2020-11-03. West Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-13. 0362-4331.
  37. Web site: November 3, 2020 General Election - Official Results . West Virginia State - Clarity Elections . November 30, 2020.

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