See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont |
| Country: | Vermont |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| College Voted: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2016 United States presidential election in Vermont |
| Previous Year: | 2016 |
| Election Date: | November 3, 2020 |
| Next Election: | 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont |
| Next Year: | 2024 |
| Turnout: | 73.27%[1] |
| Image1: | Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Joe Biden |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State1: | Delaware |
| Running Mate1: | Kamala Harris |
| Electoral Vote1: | 3 |
| Popular Vote1: | 242,820 |
| Percentage1: | 66.09% |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | Mike Pence |
| Electoral Vote2: | 0 |
| Popular Vote2: | 112,704 |
| Percentage2: | 30.67% |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Donald Trump |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Joe Biden |
| After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
Biden easily emerged victorious in the Green Mountain State 66.09% to 30.67%, a margin of 35.4%. This is the first time Vermont was the strongest state for either party since 1956, when it was Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower's best state. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%.[4] Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third-party candidates received over 14% of the vote.[5] Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history, as well as the third-largest Democratic margin of victory. Trump carried only one county, sparsely-populated Essex bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016. Consequently, Biden became the first president to win without the county since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[6]
Vermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in Vermont has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right.
After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the "Blue Wall"–the 19 jurisdictions that delivered their electoral votes to the Democratic standard-bearer at every election from 1992 to 2012, and again in 2020. Underlining how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.
See main article: 2020 Vermont Republican presidential primary. The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.
See main article: 2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary. The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[7] [8] Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[9] [10]
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | September 10, 2020 | ||
| Inside Elections[12] | September 4, 2020 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | July 14, 2020 | ||
| Politico[14] | September 8, 2020 | ||
| RCP[15] | August 3, 2020 | ||
| Niskanen[16] | July 26, 2020 | ||
| CNN[17] | August 3, 2020 | ||
| The Economist[18] | September 2, 2020 | ||
| CBS News[19] | August 16, 2020 | ||
| 270towin[20] | August 2, 2020 | ||
| ABC News[21] | July 31, 2020 | ||
| NPR[22] | August 3, 2020 | ||
| NBC News[23] | August 6, 2020 | ||
| 538[24] | September 9, 2020 |
Aggregate polls
| Donald Trump | Other/ Undecided | Margin | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[25] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 66.5% | 27.8% | 5.7% | Biden +38.7 | - | Average | 62.4% | 30.7% | 6.9% | Biden +31.7--> | |||||||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Jo Jorgensen | Howie Hawkins | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 906 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 26% | 71% | - | - | – | – | ||
| co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor[27] | Oct 19–29, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.05% | 32% | 62% | - | - | – | 6% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,167 (LV) | – | 29% | 69% | - | - | – | – | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 427 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | - | - | – | 2% | ||
| Braun Research/VPR[28] | Sep 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4% | 32% | 56% | - | - | 8% | 3% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 236 (LV) | – | 29% | 70% | - | - | – | 0% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 368 (LV) | – | 27% | 71% | - | - | – | 2% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 113 (LV) | – | 20% | 75% | - | - | – | 5% |
| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | ||||||||||||||||
| Addison | 14,967 | 67.96% | 6,292 | 28.57% | 763 | 3.47% | 8,675 | 39.39% | 22,022 | ||||||||||
| Bennington | 12,705 | 62.09% | 7,114 | 34.77% | 643 | 3.14% | 5,591 | 27.32% | 20,462 | ||||||||||
| Caledonia | 9,011 | 55.73% | 6,551 | 40.52% | 607 | 3.75% | 2,460 | 15.21% | 16,169 | ||||||||||
| Chittenden | 74,961 | 75.78% | 21,017 | 21.25% | 2,937 | 2.97% | 53,944 | 54.53% | 98,915 | ||||||||||
| Essex | 1,405 | 42.73% | 1,773 | 53.92% | 110 | 3.35% | -368 | -11.19% | 3,288 | ||||||||||
| Franklin | 13,611 | 52.69% | 11,274 | 43.65% | 945 | 3.66% | 2,337 | 9.04% | 25,830 | ||||||||||
| Grand Isle | 2,905 | 59.88% | 1,810 | 37.31% | 763 | 2.81% | 1,095 | 22.57% | 4,851 | ||||||||||
| Lamoille | 10,240 | 68.66% | 4,163 | 27.91% | 512 | 3.43% | 6,077 | 40.75% | 14,915 | ||||||||||
| Orange | 10,304 | 60.18% | 6,187 | 36.13% | 631 | 3.69% | 4,117 | 24.05% | 17,122 | ||||||||||
| Orleans | 7,147 | 50.70% | 6,512 | 46.20% | 437 | 3.10% | 635 | 4.50% | 14,096 | ||||||||||
| Rutland | 18,230 | 53.66% | 14,672 | 43.19% | 1,068 | 3.15% | 3,558 | 10.47% | 33,970 | ||||||||||
| Washington | 25,191 | 71.35% | 8,928 | 25.29% | 1,188 | 3.36% | 16,263 | 46.06% | 35,307 | ||||||||||
| Windham | 18,767 | 72.08% | 6,440 | 24.74% | 828 | 3.18% | 12,327 | 47.34% | 26,035 | ||||||||||
| Windsor | 23,376 | 67.86% | 9,971 | 28.95% | 1,099 | 3.19% | 13,405 | 38.91% | 34,446 | ||||||||||
| Totals | 242,820 | 66.09% | 112,704 | 30.67% | 11,904 | 3.24% | 130,116 | 35.42% | 367,428 | ||||||||||
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
Partisan clients