2020 United States presidential election in Utah explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:	2020 United States presidential election in Utah
Country:	Utah
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
College Voted:	yes
Previous Election:	2016 United States presidential election in Utah
Previous Year:	2016
Election Date:	November 3, 2020
Next Election:	2024 United States presidential election in Utah
Next Year:	2024
Turnout:	69.17% (of registered voters) ^[1]
Image1:	Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Donald Trump
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:	Florida
Running Mate1:	Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:	6
Popular Vote1:	865,140
Percentage1:
Nominee2:	Joe Biden
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:	Delaware
Running Mate2:	Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	560,282
President
Before Election:	Donald Trump
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Joe Biden
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
Flag Image:	Flag of Utah (2011–2024).svg

The 2020 United States presidential election in Utah was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[2] Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[3]

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations projected Utah as leaning towards Trump, or a safe red state. Throughout the campaign, Trump did not exceed 60% in a single poll conducted. Some polls even showed the president leading by single digits against Biden, likely indicating a closer than normal contest in this traditionally Republican stronghold. In past elections, Utah has often given the GOP nominee one of their largest victories in the nation, having awarded George W. Bush and Mitt Romney over 70% of the vote in 2004 and 2012, respectively. However, Trump only won Utah with 58.1% of the vote and a margin of 20.5%, which although an improvement on his 18.1% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, is still relatively narrow compared to past Republican nominees. He performed strongly in rural areas, as well as in some larger counties like Utah (Provo), Davis (Farmington), and Weber (Ogden). Trump improved over his 45.5% plurality win in 2016, due in part to the lack of a strong third party presence, as Evan McMullin, who endorsed Biden,^{[4] [5]} earned 21.5% of the vote that year. The election was far more of a two-party contest in 2020, with third parties receiving 4.2% of the vote, compared to 27% in 2016. Despite this, the Associated Press reported a less partisan and more cooperative cultural environment in Utah compared to other states during the election.^[6]

With no major third-party challenges, Trump improved his vote share by 13% while Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 results by 10.3 percentage points. Biden's improvement garnered him the highest percentage by a Democratic presidential nominee in Utah since Lyndon Johnson won with 54.9% of the vote in 1964, as Biden overtook the vote shares of Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Barack Obama in 2008, and Jimmy Carter in 1976 (the only other Democratic nominees to surpass a third of the state's vote since 1964). Biden's greatest support came from Salt Lake County, the state's most populous county, where he won 53.7%, the first outright majority for a Democratic nominee in the county since Johnson in 1964. Biden also won Summit County (Park City), which, along with Salt Lake, was one of two counties in the state Hillary Clinton had carried in 2016 (and the only one where she had won a majority); and he flipped Grand County (Moab), which had voted Democratic in 1992 and 2008.^[7]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Utah came from Mormons. 53% of voters identified as Mormons, and Trump received 72% of their votes.^[8] Trump also won the suburban areas, which make up 57% of the state, with 54% of the vote.^[8]

Utah is also one of the six states (along with Arkansas, Nevada, California, Florida, and Hawaii) as well as the District of Columbia in which Trump's margin increased from 2016.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Utah politicians Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney both declined to run against Trump.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.^{[9] [10]}

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[11]		November 3, 2020
Inside Elections^[12]		November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[13]		November 3, 2020
Politico^[14]		November 3, 2020
RCP^[15]		November 3, 2020
Niskanen^[16]		November 3, 2020
CNN^[17]		November 3, 2020
The Economist^[18]		November 3, 2020
CBS News^[19]		November 3, 2020
270towin^[20]		November 3, 2020
ABC News^[21]		November 3, 2020
NPR^[22]		November 3, 2020
NBC News^[23]		November 3, 2020
538^[24]		November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"

Donald Trump	Other/ Undecided	Margin
270 to Win^[25]	October 23–31, 2020	November 3, 2020	41.0%		50.5%	8.5%		Trump +9.5
FiveThirtyEight^[26]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	42.1%		51.9%	6.0%		Trump +9.8
Average			41.6%		51.2%	7.2%		Trump +9.6

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Jo Jorgensen	Howie Hawkins	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios^[27]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,586 (LV)	± 3.5%		55%	43%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,783 (LV)	–		55%	43%	–	–	–	–
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune^[28]	Oct 15–24, 2020	660 (LV)	± 3.8%		51%	44%	–	–	5%	–
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics^[29]	Oct 12–17, 2020	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%		50%	38%	3%	0%	1%	7%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune^[30]	Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020	1,214 (LV)	± 2.8%		50%	40%	–	–	10%	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	1,192 (LV)	–		56%	42%	–	–	–	2%
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics^[31]	Sep 7–12, 2020	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%		53%	35%	5%	0%	1%	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	893 (LV)	–		57%	41%	–	–	–	2%
RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News^[32]	Jul 27 – Aug 1, 2020	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%		50%	31%	3%	1%	4%	11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	1,037 (LV)	–		58%	40%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	412 (LV)	–		57%	41%	–	–	–	1%
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2^[33]	May 9–15, 2020	1,099 (LV)	± 3%		44%	41%	–	–	9%	5%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News^[34]	Apr 15–21, 2020	964 (RV)	± 3.2%		51%	32%	–	–	8%	9%
Y2 Analytics^[35]	Mar 21–30, 2020	1,266 (RV)	± 2.8%		46%	41%	–	–	7%	5%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News^[36]	Feb 24 – Mar 1, 2020	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%		50%	33%	–	–	8%	8%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News^[37]	Jan 15–22, 2020	1,017 (RV)	± 3.1%		49%	31%	–	–	13%	7%
Y2 Analytics^[38]	Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019	149 (RV)	–		36%	35%	–	–	14%	5%

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

with Donald Trump and Cory Booker

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttigieg (D)	Other	Undecided
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News	Jan 15–22, 2020	1,017 (RV)	± 3.1%		48%	25%	13%	14%
Y2 Analytics	Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019	144 (RV)	–		48%	28%	15%	9%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Other	Undecided
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News	Feb 24 – Mar 1, 2020	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%		50%	33%	9%	7%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News	Jan 15–22, 2020	1,017 (RV)	± 3.1%		50%	31%	13%	6%
Y2 Analytics	Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019	153 (RV)	–	38%		44%	14%	5%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Other	Undecided
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News	Feb 24 – Mar 1, 2020	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%		50%	28%	12%	10%
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News	Jan 15–22, 2020	1,017 (RV)	± 3.1%		50%	28%	12%	10%
Y2 Analytics	Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019	144 (RV)	–		39%	36%	19%	6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Democrat	Other	Undecided
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News^[39]	Jan 16–30, 2020	2,174 (LV)	–		47%	31%	12%	10%
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News	Sep 25 – Oct 8, 2019	944 (LV)	–		41%	33%	16%	10%
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News^[40]	Jun 27 – Jul 17, 2019	2,464 (LV)	–		38%	30%	18%	14%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce^[41]	Feb 28 – Mar 11, 2020	798 (LV)	± 3.47%		52%	45%	3%
Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce^[42]	Oct 3–10, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4%		50%	46%	4%
Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce^[43]	Jun 11 – Jul 1, 2019	801 (LV)	–	45%		52%	4%

Results

Results by county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Kanye West Independent		Don Blankenship Constitution		Howie Hawkins Green		Other		Margin		Total votes cast
		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%
	Beaver		2,695		86.94%		357		11.52%		23		0.74%		7		0.23%		4		0.13%		6		0.19%		8		0.26%		2,338		75.42%		3,100
	Box Elder		21,548		78.87%		4,473		16.37%		614		2.25%		112		0.41%		134		0.49%		55		0.20%		384		1.41%		17,075		62.50%		27,320
	Cache		38,032		65.17%		16,650		28.53%		1,796		3.08%		230		0.39%		351		0.60%		217		0.37%		1,082		1.86%		21,382		36.64%		58,358
	Carbon		6,693		71.05%		2,392		25.39%		151		1.60%		44		0.47%		22		0.23%		18		0.19%		100		1.06%		4,301		45.91%		9,420
	Daggett		496		79.74%		111		17.85%		7		1.13%		2		0.32%		2		0.32%		0		0.00%		4		0.64%		385		61.89%		622
	Davis		104,135		60.04%		57,411		33.10%		5,004		2.89%		1,012		0.58%		827		0.48%		597		0.34%		4,448		2.56%		46,724		26.94%		173,434
	Duchesne		7,513		87.75%		843		9.85%		107		1.25%		18		0.21%		21		0.25%		9		0.11%		51		0.60%		6,670		77.90%		8,562
	Emery		4,207		85.89%		572		11.68%		47		0.96%		15		0.31%		4		0.08%		8		0.16%		45		0.91%		3,635		74.21%		4,898
	Garfield		2,158		78.99%		514		18.81%		37		1.35%		2		0.07%		3		0.11%		11		0.40%		7		0.26%		1,644		60.18%		2,732
	Grand		2,248		43.19%		2,806		53.91%		62		1.19%		19		0.37%		5		0.10%		23		0.44%		42		0.81%		-558		-10.72%		5,205
	Iron		18,989		75.64%		4,892		19.49%		666		2.65%		94		0.37%		88		0.35%		78		0.31%		297		1.18%		14,097		56.15%		25,104
	Juab		5,087		86.18%		645		10.93%		91		1.54%		13		0.22%		16		0.27%		5		0.08%		46		0.79%		4,442		75.72%		5,903
	Kane		2,998		71.30%		1,083		25.76%		51		1.21%		15		0.36%		16		0.38%		8		0.19%		34		0.81%		1,915		45.54%		4,205
	Millard		5,404		87.30%		624		10.08%		64		1.03%		16		0.26%		26		0.42%		5		0.08%		51		0.83%		4,780		77.22%		6,190
	Morgan		5,181		78.43%		1,086		16.44%		160		2.42%		35		0.53%		21		0.32%		13		0.20%		110		1.67%		4,095		61.99%		6,606
	Piute		773		88.44%		86		9.84%		7		0.80%		3		0.34%		1		0.11%		0		0.00%		4		0.45%		687		78.60%		874
	Rich		1,157		84.51%		180		13.15%		14		1.02%		4		0.29%		3		0.22%		2		0.15%		9		0.66%		977		71.36%		1,369
	Salt Lake		230,174		42.11%		289,906		53.04%		12,219		2.24%		2,590		0.47%		1,570		0.29%		2,203		0.40%		7,919		1.45%		-59,732		-10.93%		546,581
	San Juan		3,535		51.20%		3,113		45.09%		99		1.43%		45		0.65%		28		0.41%		17		0.25%		67		0.97%		422		6.11%		6,904
	Sanpete		10,459		82.19%		1,794		14.10%		215		1.69%		39		0.31%		50		0.39%		19		0.15%		149		1.18%		8,665		68.09%		12,725
	Sevier		9,052		87.35%		1,084		10.46%		133		1.28%		28		0.27%		31		0.30%		14		0.14%		21		0.20%		7,968		76.89%		10,363
	Summit		10,252		39.00%		15,244		57.99%		367		1.40%		86		0.33%		25		0.10%		65		0.25%		250		0.93%		-4,992		-18.99%		26,289
	Tooele		21,014		66.67%		8,943		28.37%		958		3.04%		152		0.48%		181		0.57%		81		0.26%		189		0.60%		12,071		38.30%		31,518
	Uintah		13,261		86.28%		1,663		10.82%		226		1.47%		37		0.24%		56		0.36%		29		0.19%		98		0.67%		11,598		75.46%		15,370
	Utah		192,812		66.69%		76,033		26.30%		10,377		3.59%		1,680		0.58%		1,375		0.48%		853		0.30%		5,971		2.07%		116,779		40.39%		289,101
	Wasatch		10,795		60.68%		6,187		34.78%		352		1.98%		86		0.48%		53		0.30%		45		0.25%		272		1.52%		4,608		25.90%		17,790
	Washington		67,294		73.82%		20,530		22.52%		1,742		1.91%		298		0.33%		220		0.24%		187		0.21%		889		0.98%		46,764		51.30%		91,160
	Wayne		1,229		75.40%		365		22.39%		9		0.55%		7		0.43%		3		0.18%		3		0.18%		14		0.85%		864		53.01%		1,630
	Weber		65,949		58.54%		40,695		36.13%		2,849		2.53%		524		0.47%		415		0.37%		482		0.43%		1,735		1.54%		25,254		22.41%		112,649
Totals	865,140	57.45%	560,282	37.20%	38,447	2.55%	7,213	0.48%	5,551	0.37%	5,053	0.34%	24,296	1.61%	304,858	20.25%	1,505,982

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Grand (largest municipality: Moab)

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.^[44]

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
	64.2%	31.6%		Rob Bishop
			Blake Moore
		56.1%	40.2%		Chris Stewart
		60.3%	35.2%		John Curtis
	52.4%	43.3%		Ben McAdams
			Burgess Owens

See also

• United States presidential elections in Utah
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

External links

• • • Web site: League of Women Voters of Utah . (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Notes and References

1. Web site: Voter turnout in United States elections . 2022-08-04 . Ballotpedia . en.
2. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
3. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
4. Web site: Former presidential candidate Evan McMullin endorses Rep. Ben McAdams in Utah race. 2020-12-29. www.ksl.com. en.
5. Web site: 'Utah Politics' podcast: Evan McMullin on foreign election interference and QAnon. 2020-12-29. The Salt Lake Tribune. en-US.
6. News: AP ROAD TRIP: Amid American rancor, a dash of Utah Nice. Associated Press. Sullivan. Tim. December 17, 2020. December 18, 2020.
7. Web site: The Political Graveyard: Grand County, Utah. 2020-11-18. politicalgraveyard.com.
8. News: 2020-11-03. Utah Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-17. 0362-4331.
9. News: Taylor . Kate . Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass. . February 10, 2019 . The New York Times . February 9, 2019.
10. News: Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020. Herndon. Astead W.. December 31, 2018. The New York Times. January 3, 2019. Burns. Alexander.
11. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
12. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
13. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
14. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
15. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
16. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
17. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
18. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
19. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
20. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
21. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
22. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020 . en. Montanaro . Domenico .
23. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
24. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
25. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/utah/ 270 to Win
26. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/utah/ FiveThirtyEight
27. https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference SurveyMonkey/Axios
28. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/10/31/trump-up-over-biden-new/ Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
29. https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/10/22/21528825/news-poll-utahns-concerned-election-results-being-accepted-by-trump-biden-hinckley RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics
30. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/10/05/new-utah-poll-has-trump/ Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
31. https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/9/16/21439705/poll-are-you-better-off-than-you-were-4-years-ago-what-about-the-country-trump-biden-race RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics
32. https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/8/6/21357209/donald-trump-holding-onto-lead-over-joe-biden-in-utah-deseret-news-hinckley-institute-poll RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
33. https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23932-poll-donald-trump-leads-biden-by-just-3-points-in-utah Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2
34. https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/28/21240213/donald-trump-joe-biden-utah-leads-poll-new-utahns-vote-2020-presidential-election-president-race Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
35. https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23550-poll-trump-leads-biden-by-just-5-points-in-utah Y2 Analytics
36. https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/3/4/21164798/donald-trump-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-election-president-democratic-poll-deseret-news-super-tuesday Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
37. https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/1/29/21112311/hillary-clinton-poll-president-donald-trump-impeachment-joe-biden-better-worse Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News
38. https://www.utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/21444-trump-at-40-support-in-utah-ahead-of-2020-vote-trails-democrats-booker-and-sanders-tied-with-warren-and-biden-in-head-to-head-matchup Y2 Analytics
39. https://www.utpoliticaltrends.com/results Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News
40. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d092137e4cbcd000197be6e/t/5d49e150ea309b0001b7fab9/1565122896879/Utah+Policy+08052019+Topline+Report+-+final+cut+version.pdf Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News
41. https://issuu.com/saltlakechamber/docs/utah_outlook_20-q1_final Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
42. https://issuu.com/saltlakechamber/docs/utah_outlook_19-q3_final Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
43. https://issuu.com/saltlakechamber/docs/utahoutlook_2019-q2_final_digtal_co Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
44. Web site: Nir . David . Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012 . . November 19, 2020 . December 10, 2020.