2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
Next Year:2024
Turnout:54.8% 5.8 pp[1]
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:7
Popular Vote1:1,020,280
Percentage1:65.37%
Nominee2:Joe Biden
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Delaware
Running Mate2:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:503,890
Percentage2:32.29%
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Oklahoma voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump easily carried Oklahoma on Election Day by a margin of 33.08%, down from 36.39 points in 2016. Oklahoma was one of two states where Trump won every county (though Oklahoma County was won by a plurality of votes, compared to the absolute majorities achieved across the state), the other being West Virginia. This also signaled the fifth consecutive election in which the Republican candidate carried every county in the state, including those counties encompassed by Native American reservations. In this election, Trump also became the first presidential candidate ever to win more than a million votes in Oklahoma.[4] Biden, however, came within 3,326 votes of winning Oklahoma's most populous county Oklahoma County, and won more than 40% of the vote in Oklahoma's second-most populous county Tulsa. No Democratic presidential candidate has won Oklahoma County since Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide, or Tulsa County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in his 1936 landslide. This is the first election since 2000 in which not every county voted in the majority for the Republican, as Oklahoma County was won by Republicans with a 49.21% plurality. However, these gains in urban Oklahoma were partly offset by continued falloff in southeast Oklahoma, where Biden even underperformed Hillary Clinton's performance four years earlier in most counties.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared Democratic candidates.[5]

Libertarian nominee

See main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries.

Independent candidates

Three unaffiliated candidates filed to be on the Oklahoma presidential ballot, all by paying a $35,000 fee. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has filed a lawsuit challenging the amount of the filing fee.[6]

Ballot order

Oklahoma determines ballot order by lot, with unaffiliated candidates listed below candidates of recognized parties. The drawing was held on July 16, with the resulting order for political parties being Republican, Libertarian, Democrat.[10] The unaffiliated candidates for president will be listed in this order: Jade Simmons, Kanye West, Brock Pierce.[11]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[12] September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13] September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] July 14, 2020
Politico[15] September 8, 2020
RCP[16] August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] July 26, 2020
CNN[18] August 3, 2020
The Economist[19] September 2, 2020
CBS News[20] August 16, 2020
270towin[21] August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] July 31, 2020
NPR[23] August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] August 6, 2020
538[25] September 9, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[26] October 17–21, 2020November 3, 202038.5%58.5%3.0%Trump +20.0
FiveThirtyEight[27] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202036.2%59.2%4.6%Trump +23.0
Average37.4%58.9%3.7%Trump +21.5

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,902 (LV)± 3%65%35%–
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20203,191 (LV)–59%40%–––
SoonerPoll/News 9/News on 6[29] Oct 15–20, 20205,466 (LV)± 1.33%59%37%1%2%2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,174 (LV)–63%35%––2%
Amber Integrated[30] Sep 17–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%55%33%1%5%6%
SoonerPoll/News9[31] https://www.news9.com/story/5f59550d63eff90bb410d489/poll:-president-holds-commanding-lead-in-oklahoma-over-bidenSep 2–8, 2020486 (LV)± 4.45%60%35%–1%4%
SoonerPoll[32] Aug 13–31, 2020379 (LV)± 5.03%60%35%–2%4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,009 (LV)–64%35%––2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,410 (LV)–64%34%––4%
DFM Research/Abby Broyles for US Senate[33] Jul 29–30, 2020572 (LV)± 4.1%56%36%–5%3%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020591 (LV)–61%37%––1%
Amber Integrated[34] Jun 3–4, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%55%36%–4%5%
Amber Integrated[35] Mar 5–8, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%57%33%–4%5%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner[36] 		Feb 10–13, 2020500 (RV)± 4.3%62%34%––4%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
Amber IntegratedMar 5–8, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4 %59%30%5%5%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner		Feb 10–13, 2020500 (RV)± 4.3%63%34%–3%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Results

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Adair5,58578.57%1,38719.51%1361.92%4,19859.06%7,108
Alfalfa1,97887.44%23210.26%522.30%1,74677.18%2,262
Atoka4,55784.56%76514.20%671.24%3,79270.36%5,389
Beaver1,96890.36%1908.72%200.92%1,77881.64%2,178
Beckham6,76785.14%1,04813.19%1331.67%5,71971.95%7,948
Blaine3,13680.39%68817.64%771.97%2,44862.75%3,901
Bryan12,34477.27%3,32320.80%3091.93%9,02156.47%15,976
Caddo7,01371.13%2,67027.08%1761.79%4,34344.05%9,859
Canadian43,55070.31%16,74227.03%1,6482.66%26,80843.28%61,940
Carter14,69975.46%4,47022.95%3101.59%10,22952.51%19,479
Cherokee11,22363.36%6,02734.02%4642.62%5,19629.34%17,714
Choctaw4,69880.56%1,08218.55%520.89%3,61662.01%5,832
Cimarron97092.03%706.64%141.43%90085.39%1,054
Cleveland66,67755.67%49,82741.60%3,2742.73%16,85014.07%119,778
Coal2,09182.84%37414.82%592.34%1,71768.02%2,524
Comanche20,90558.67%13,74738.58%9792.75%7,15820.09%35,631
Cotton2,11782.31%39315.28%622.41%1,72467.03%2,572
Craig4,68677.69%1,21720.18%1292.13%3,46957.51%6,032
Creek23,29476.36%6,57721.56%6342.08%16,71754.80%30,505
Custer8,06075.39%2,36922.16%2622.45%5,69153.23%10,691
Delaware13,55778.61%3,47220.13%2161.26%10,08558.48%17,245
Dewey2,12490.04%2149.07%210.89%1,91080.97%2,359
Ellis1,68890.12%1628.65%231.23%1,52681.47%1,873
Garfield16,97075.66%4,91921.93%5412.41%12,05153.73%22,430
Garvin8,87881.29%1,86517.08%1791.63%7,01364.21%10,922
Grady18,53880.25%4,14417.94%4191.81%14,39462.31%23,101
Grant1,91686.07%28012.58%301.35%1,63673.49%2,226
Greer1,60581.35%32816.62%402.03%1,27764.73%1,973
Harmon74780.06%17718.97%90.97%57061.09%933
Harper1,32789.24%1369.15%241.61%1,19180.09%1,487
Haskell4,16583.07%78315.62%661.51%3,38267.45%5,014
Hughes3,87579.78%91918.92%631.30%2,95660.86%4,857
Jackson6,39277.75%1,64620.02%1832.23%4,74657.73%8,221
Jefferson2,02684.95%31913.38%401.67%1,70771.57%2,385
Johnston3,44180.95%73817.36%721.69%2,70363.59%4,251
Kay12,83474.40%4,04023.42%3752.18%8,79450.98%17,249
Kingfisher5,52185.40%85413.21%901.39%4,66772.19%6,465
Kiowa2,67378.00%69920.40%551.60%1,97457.60%3,427
Latimer3,43780.89%76217.93%501.18%2,67562.96%4,249
LeFlore15,21380.90%3,29917.54%2931.56%11,91463.36%18,805
Lincoln12,01380.69%2,60917.52%2661.79%9,40463.17%14,888
Logan15,60872.35%5,45525.29%5112.36%10,15347.06%21,574
Love3,30581.08%71117.44%601.48%2,59463.64%4,076
McClain15,29579.51%3,58218.62%3591.87%11,71360.89%19,236
McCurtain9,48582.72%1,85816.20%1241.08%7,62766.52%11,467
McIntosh6,17274.05%2,03124.37%1321.58%4,14149.68%8,335
Major3,08488.95%3209.23%631.82%2,76479.72%3,467
Marshall4,89180.66%1,10018.14%731.20%3,79162.52%6,064
Mayes12,74976.68%3,58121.54%2961.78%9,16855.14%16,626
Murray4,61278.25%1,15619.61%1262.14%3,45658.64%5,894
Muskogee16,52665.89%8,02732.00%5282.11%8,49933.89%25,081
Noble3,82177.38%1,00320.31%1142.31%2,81857.07%4,938
Nowata3,61082.21%71216.21%691.58%2,89866.00%4,391
Okfuskee3,05875.73%89622.19%842.08%2,06253.54%4,038
Oklahoma145,05049.21%141,72448.08%7,9662.71%3,3261.13%294,740
Okmulgee9,66867.55%4,35730.44%2882.01%5,31137.11%14,313
Osage14,12168.76%6,00229.22%4152.02%8,11939.54%20,538
Ottawa8,54574.71%2,68623.48%2071.81%5,85951.23%11,438
Pawnee5,26777.62%1,36320.09%1562.29%3,90457.53%6,786
Payne17,81360.09%10,90436.78%9263.13%6,90923.31%29,643
Pittsburg13,85177.28%3,76821.02%3051.70%10,08356.26%17,924
Pontotoc10,80570.53%4,11726.87%3982.60%6,68843.66%15,320
Pottawatomie20,24071.81%7,27525.81%6702.38%12,96546.00%28,185
Pushmataha4,01684.74%66814.10%551.16%3,34870.64%4,739
Roger Mills1,62988.82%1689.16%372.02%1,46179.66%1,834
Rogers34,03176.38%9,58921.52%9332.10%24,44254.86%44,553
Seminole6,01172.10%2,15025.79%1762.11%3,86146.31%8,337
Sequoyah12,11378.73%3,03519.73%2381.54%9,07859.00%15,386
Stephens15,56081.65%3,15416.55%3431.80%12,40465.10%19,057
Texas4,50581.60%89416.19%1222.21%3,61165.41%5,521
Tillman2,07676.66%59722.05%351.29%1,47954.61%2,708
Tulsa150,57456.46%108,99640.87%7,1082.67%41,57815.59%266,678
Wagoner26,16574.04%8,46423.95%7092.01%17,70150.09%35,338
Washington17,07672.66%5,79024.64%6352.70%11,28648.02%23,501
Washita4,08685.53%59812.52%931.95%3,48873.01%4,777
Woods2,99381.38%59116.07%942.55%2,40265.31%3,678
Woodward6,61184.92%1,00512.91%1692.17%5,60672.01%7,785
Totals1,020,28065.37%503,89032.29%36,5292.34%516,39033.08%1,560,699

By congressional district

Trump won all of Oklahoma's congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
60.11%37.31%Kevin Hern
76.10%22.15%Markwayne Mullin
74.58%23.15%Frank Lucas
65.23%32.22%Tom Cole
51.56%45.95%Kendra Horn (116th Congress)
Stephanie Bice (117th Congress)

Electors

Ronda Vuillemont-Smith, Lonnie Lu Anderson, Chris Martin, Steve Fair, Linda Huggard, A. J. Ferate, Carolyn McLarty[38]

Erin Adams, Danny Chabino, Drew Cook, Kevin Hobbie, Rex Lawhorn, Jay Norton, Victoria Whitfield[39]

Judy Eason McIntyre, Eric Proctor, Jeff Berrong, Christine Byrd, Demetrios Bereolos, Pamela Iron, Shevonda Steward[40]

Shanda Carter, Terrence Stephens, Hope Stephens, Elizabeth Stephens, Dakota Hooks, Phalanda Boyd, Quincy Boyd[7]

April Anderson, Craig Alan Weygandt, Will Flanagan, Tom Krup, Megan Krup, Gretchen Schrupp, David Schrupp[9]

Robert Murphy, Susan Darlene Murphy, Richard Prawdzienski, Jessy Artman, David Selinger, Shane Wayne Howell, Angela McCaslin[8]

Analysis

Oklahoma, a majority-White, mainly-rural state sandwiched between the South and the Midwest, has long been a Republican stronghold at the presidential level, although Democrats did well in state-level elections until the 2000s. 4 of 5 congressional seats are considered non-competitive for Democrats, and it hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in 1964, against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Oklahoma was last competitive at the presidential level in 1996.

Despite Trump's win in the state, Biden came less than 1 percentage point of flipping the rapidly-urbanizing Oklahoma County, which hosts the state capital, while he also reduced Trump's margin of victory in Tulsa County. Meanwhile, Trump carried the state's only Hispanic-majority county of Texas, located in the Oklahoma panhandle. He also held onto the only two plurality-Native American counties in the state: Adair and Cherokee, both encompassed by the Cherokee Reservation, and the latter hosting the tribal capital in Tahlequah. Trump also exhibited considerable strength in the historically Democratic region known as "Little Dixie," carrying Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district by 54%. The counties encompassed by the Cherokee, Choctaw, Chickasaw, Muscogee, Seminole, Osage, and Pawnee reservations were all captured by Trump by large margins.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Oklahoma came from whites, with 71% support; he narrowly won 50% of the state's non-white vote (most notably from the state's large Native American population). Oklahoma, often termed the "Buckle of the Bible Belt", is a very religious state, with Trump capturing the Protestant vote by 78%.[41]

Exit polls

2020 presidential election in Oklahoma by demographic subgroup (New York Times)[42]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% oftotal vote
Total vote32.2965.37100
Ideology
Liberals732721
Moderates465230
Conservatives79149
Party
Democrats90929
Republicans79268
Gender
Men267246
Women376253
Race/ethnicity
White287178
Non-white495022
Age
18–29 years old554310
30–44 years old366220
45–64 years old297037
65 and older287133
Sexual orientation
LGBT––10
Not LGBT257590
Education
High school or less297029
Some college, or associate degree366236
College graduate206922
Postgraduate degree––13
Area type
Urban435517
Suburban395937
Small town257320
Rural217825

Notes

Partisan clients

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2020 November General Election Turnout Rates . United States Elections Project . 2020-11-11.
  2. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  3. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  4. News: Casteel . Chris . 2020-11-15 . Trump's Oklahoma County squeaker, Horn's Grady County connection and 3 other things about the election . en-US . The Oklahoman . 2020-12-09.
  5. News: Taylor . Kate . Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass. . February 10, 2019 . The New York Times . February 9, 2019.
  6. Web site: Howie Hawkins Files Federal Lawsuit Against Amount of Oklahoma Presidential Filing Fee Ballot Access News. July 16, 2020 . 2021-05-07.
  7. Web site: 2020 Oklahoma Statement of Candidacy - Jade Simmons . Oklahoma State Election Board . https://web.archive.org/web/20200718225414/https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Simmons,%20Jade_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf . July 18, 2020 . July 15, 2020 . dead.
  8. Web site: 2020 Oklahoma Statement of Candidacy - Brock Pierce . Oklahoma State Election Board . https://web.archive.org/web/20200913082758/https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Pierce,%20Brock_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf . September 13, 2020 . July 15, 2020 . dead.
  9. Web site: 2020 Oklahoma Statement of Candidacy - Kanye West . Oklahoma State Election Board . https://web.archive.org/web/20200717055525/https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/West%2C%20Kanye_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf . July 17, 2020 . July 15, 2020 . dead.
  10. Web site: Oklahoma State Election Board.
  11. Web site: General Election Ballot Order Set The McCarville Report. 2021-05-07. en-US.
  12. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  13. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  14. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  15. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  16. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  17. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  18. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  19. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  20. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  21. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  22. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  23. News: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020. en. Montanaro. Domenico.
  24. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  25. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  26. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/oklahoma/ 270 to Win
  27. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/oklahoma/ FiveThirtyEight
  28. https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference SurveyMonkey/Axios
  29. https://www.newson6.com/story/5f90b311788f4939f00759e5/news-9news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-inhofe-leads-broyles-by-20-points-in-us-senate-race SoonerPoll/News 9/News on 6
  30. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200924_OK.pdf Amber Integrated
  31. https://soonerpoll.com/news9-newson6-poll-trump-performing-better-than-four-years-ago-besting-biden-but-not-by-as-much-as-clinton/ SoonerPoll/News9
  32. https://soonerpoll.com/wpcontent/uploads/2020/10/SoonerPoll_Q3_2020_Report.pdf SoonerPoll
  33. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cps1y1Lfd5eHG4Z-IJw_sNIeYUycflgx/view DFM Research/Abby Broyles for US Senate
  34. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf Amber Integrated
  35. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200311_OK.pdf Amber Integrated
  36. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Sooner_Survey_Feb_18_2020.pdf Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
    & Associates/OK Sooner
  37. https://www.amberintegrated.com/news/2019/12/12/poll-trump-support-remains-strong-in-oklahoma-and-majority-oppose-impeachment-4lk8y Amber Integrated
  38. Web site: Oklahoma Republican Electors . Oklahoma Republican Party . https://web.archive.org/web/20200719001234/https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Republican%20Certification%20Letter_Presidential%20Electors_072020_Redacted.pdf . July 19, 2020 . July 14, 2020 . dead.
  39. Web site: Libertarian Certification Letter . Oklahoma Libertarian Party . https://web.archive.org/web/20201018015759/https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Libertarian%20Certification%20Letter_Electors-President%20and%20Vice%20President_2020_Redacted.pdf . October 18, 2020 . dead.
  40. Web site: Democratic Certification Letter . Oklahoma Democrats . https://web.archive.org/web/20201018034923/https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Democratic%20Certification%20Letter_Presidential%20Electors_072020_Redacted.pdf . October 18, 2020 . July 14, 2020 . dead.
  41. News: 2020-11-03. Oklahoma Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-16. 0362-4331.
  42. News: Oklahoma Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. The New York Times . November 3, 2020 . 2020-12-28. en.

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