2020 United States presidential election in Ohio explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in Ohio
Country:Ohio
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in Ohio
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in Ohio
Next Year:2024
Turnout:74% [1]
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:18
Popular Vote1:3,154,834
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Joe Biden
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Delaware
Running Mate2:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:2,679,165
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris against the Republican Party's nominee—incumbent President Donald Trump and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence. Ohio had 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Despite polling showing a very narrow Trump lead, Trump won Ohio with 53.27% of the vote, defeating Biden who received 45.24% of the vote, a margin of 8.03%. Trump won by nearly the same margin that he defeated Hillary Clinton by in 2016. This marked the first time since 1960 that Ohio voted for the losing candidate, breaking a streak of the state voting for 14 consecutive winning candidates that began in 1964. This is the second consecutive election in which the state voted over 10 points to the right of the nation as a whole, evidencing the state's trend towards the Republican Party. With Trump's win in Ohio in 2024, this is the only election between the years of 1964 and 2024 in which Ohio voted for the losing candidate.

Biden became the first Democrat since FDR in 1932[4] to win the White House without carrying the heavily unionized carmaking counties of Mahoning and Trumbull, the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win the White House without carrying Lorain County, the first Democrat since JFK in 1960 to win the White House without Ashtabula, Ottawa, or Portage Counties, and the first since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Erie, Stark, or Wood Counties. Furthermore, this is the first time since 1976 that Ohio voted to the right of Texas - a state that last voted Democratic that year. Additionally, this is the first time since 1892 that an incumbent president carried the state while losing reelection nationally. Trump won 81 of Ohio's 88 counties compared to 80 in 2016, the most since Ronald Reagan won 82 in 1984.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. However, on March 16, Governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. As the governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, he went to court to request the delay.[5] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit.[6] Later in the day, the state's health director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency.[7] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2.[8] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28.[9]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[10]

Democratic primary

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[11]
Inside Elections[12]
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]
Politico[14]
RCP[15]
Niskanen[16]
CNN[17]
The Economist[18]
CBS News[19]
270towin[20]
ABC News[21]
NPR[22]
NBC News[23]
538[24]

Polling

Graphical summaryAggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump

Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[25] November 1–2, 2020November 3, 202046.7%47.6%5.7%Trump +0.9
Real Clear Politics[26] October 28, 2020 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202046.3%47.3%6.4%Trump +1.0
FiveThirtyEight[27] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202046.6%47.5%5.7%Trump +0.8
Average46.6%47.5%5.9%Trump +0.9

June 1, 2020 – October 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen

Howie
Hawkins

OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Oct 20 – Nov 26,025 (LV)± 2%51%47%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[29] Oct 31 – Nov 1800 (LV)± 3.5%49%45%3%
Research Co.[30] Oct 31 – Nov 1450 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%2%4%
Swayable[31] Oct 27 – Nov 1516 (LV)± 5.8%52%47%1%0%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[32] Oct 29 – Nov 11,136 (LV)± 3%49%48%1%1%
Quinnipiac University[33] Oct 28 – Nov 11,440 (LV)± 2.6%43%47%2%8%
Survey Monkey/TableauOct 20 – Nov 15,305 (LV)± 2.0%50%47%
Trafalgar Group[34] Oct 30–311,041 (LV)± 2.96%49%44%
Emerson College[35] Oct 29–31656 (LV)± 3.8%49%50%2%
Morning Consult[36] Oct 22–312,179 (LV)± 2%49%47%
AtlasIntel[37] Oct 29–30660 (LV)± 4%50%47%3%
Gravis Marketing[38] Oct 27–28613 (LV)± 4%49%47%4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20208,089 (LV)51%47%
Quinnipiac University[39] Oct 23–271,186 (LV)± 2.9%43%48%1%8%
Swayable[40] Oct 23–26440 (LV)± 6.3%55%44%1%0%
Wick Surveys[41] Oct 24–251,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%47%
Citizen Data[42] Oct 17–201,000 (LV)± 3%44%43%2%1%2%8%
Fox News[43] Oct 17–201,018 (LV)± 3%48%45%3%1%1%3%
Morning ConsultOct 11–202,271 (LV)± 2.1%49%47%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[44] Oct 18–19800 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%2%4%
Quinnipiac University[45] Oct 8–121,160 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%2%4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[46] Oct 8–11586 (LV)± 4.2%50%47%2%1%
Morning ConsultOct 2–112,283 (LV)± 2.1%49%46%
Baldwin Wallace University[47] Sep 30 – Oct 81,009 (LV)± 3.1%47%45%1%0%1%5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[48] Oct 2–6661 (LV)± 4.3%44%45%2%1%0%7%
Trafalgar Group[49] Oct 1–31,035 (LV)± 2.97%48%44%3%1%1%4%
YouGov/CBS[50] Sep 30 – Oct 21,114 (LV)± 3.7%47%47%1%5%
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[51] Sep 28 – Oct 1800 (LV)± 3.46%48%47%2%1%0%3%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–304,012 (LV)51%47%2%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[52] Sep 24–27400 (LV)± 4.9%49%47%
Fox News[53] Sep 20–23830 (LV)± 3%45%50%1%1%0%2%
907 (RV)± 3%44%49%1%2%2%3%
Quinnipiac University[54] Sep 17–211,078 (LV)± 3%47%48%2%4%
Baldwin Wallace University[55] Sep 9–221,011 (LV)± 3.3%44%45%2%0%1%7%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[56] Sep 11–15556 (RV)± 4.3%48%45%5%1%
Morning Consult[57] Aug 29 – Sep 71,963 (LV)± (2%–4%)50%45%
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[58] Aug 31 – Sep 3800 (LV)± 3.46%51%45%2%3%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[59] https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/questions/questions_ohio_presidential_race_september_1_2_2020Sep 1–21,000 (LV)± 3%47%51%3%
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute[60] Aug 26 – Sep 1500 (LV)46%48%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–313,220 (LV)51%48%2%
Morning Consult[61] Aug 21–301,811 (LV)± (2%–4%)50%45%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[62] Aug 13–17631 (RV)47%47%4%2%
Morning ConsultAug 7–161,744 (LV)± (2%–4%)49%45%
TargetSmart/Progress Ohio[63] Jul 28 – Aug 31,249 (LV)± 3.6%46%47%8%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–313,694 (LV)52%46%2%
Morning Consult[64] Jul 17–261,741 (LV)± 2.3%48%45%
YouGov/CBS[65] Jul 21–241,211 (LV)± 3.6%46%45%2%7%
Zogby Analytics[66] Jul 21–23805 (RV)± 3.5%41%43%4%1%11%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/AGPAC[67] Jul 15–16750 (LV)± 4%46%50%2%2%
University of Akron[68] Jun 24 – Jul 151,037 (RV)± 3.0%42%46%6%6%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–301,610 (LV)50%49%1%
Quinnipiac[69] Jun 18–221,139 (RV)± 2.9%45%46%4%5%
Fox News[70] May 30 – Jun 2803 (RV)± 3.5%43%45%6%6%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
OtherUndecided
Morning ConsultMay 17–261,720 (LV)50%42%
Emerson College[71] May 8–10725 (RV)± 3.5%51%49%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[72] Apr 20–25797 (RV)± 3.7%44%45%11%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[73] Mar 17–251,025 (RV)± 3.3%47%43%10%
Change Research[74] Mar 21–23510 (LV)52%44%5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College[75] Mar 10–131,710 (RV)± 2.9%45%49%1%5%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[76] Oct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%46%48%6%
Climate Nexus[77] Oct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%47%53%
42%48%10%
Emerson College[78] Sep 29 – October 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%47%53%
Quinnipiac University[79] Jul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%42%50%
Public Policy Polling[80] Nov 27–28, 2018648 (V)± 3.9%44%48%8%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingOct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%43%10%
Climate NexusOct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%50%50%
Climate NexusOct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%46%43%11%
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%44%44%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingOct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%43%10%
Climate NexusOct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%50%50%
Climate NexusOct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%46%43%11%
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%44%44%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great LakesMar 17–25, 20201,025 (RV)± 3.3%47%41%12%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist CollegeMar 10–13, 20201,710 (RV)± 2.9%46%48%1%5%
Public Policy PollingOct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%47%7%
Climate NexusOct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%48%52%
45%47%8%
Emerson CollegeSep 29 – Oct 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%47%53%
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%
Public Policy PollingNov 27–28, 2018648 (V)± 3.9%46%47%7%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingOct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%47%6%
Climate NexusOct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%49%51%
Climate NexusOct 1–7, 20191112 (LV)± 2.9%45%46%9%
Emerson College[81] Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019837 (RV)± 3.2%48%52%
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 17–22, 20191,431 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%
Public Policy PollingNov 27–28, 2018648 (V)± 3.9%49%43%9%
Zogby Analytics[82] Aug 17–23, 2017805 (LV)± 3.5%40%44%16%

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[83] Mar 17–25, 2020997 (RV)± 3.7%49.4%48.3%2.1%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[84] Jan 8–20, 20201,031 (RV)± 3.1%41.3%47.1%11.5%
Public Policy PollingOct 10–11, 2019776 (V)± 3.5%47%48%5%
Ohio Northern University[85] Apr 5–10, 20191,505 (A)± 2.7%34%41%18%
Baldwin Wallace University[86] Apr 24 – May 2, 2018811 (RV)± 3.5%41%44%6%9%
Baldwin Wallace University[87] Feb 28 – Mar 9, 20181,011 (RV)± 3.0%34%32%

with John Kasich and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
John
Kasich (R)
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace UniversityApr 24 – May 2, 2018811 (RV)± 3.5%37%31%13%19%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityFeb 28 – Mar 9, 20181,011 (RV)± 3.0%41%20%12%

Results

By county

County[88] Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Howie Hawkins
Green
Various candidates
Write-ins
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%%%
Adams9,87081.27%2,15617.75%920.76%270.22%00.00%7,71463.52%12,145
Allen33,11668.85%14,14929.42%5901.23%1380.29%1060.22%18,96739.43%48,099
Ashland19,40773.50%6,54124.77%3451.31%1050.40%70.03%12,86648.73%26,405
Ashtabula26,89060.79%16,49737.29%5591.26%1960.44%950.21%10,39323.50%44,237
Athens10,86241.58%14,77256.55%2991.14%1150.44%720.28%−3,910−14.97%26,120
Auglaize20,79880.54%4,65118.01%2601.01%00.00%1130.44%16,14762.53%25,822
Belmont23,56071.09%9,13827.57%2850.86%980.30%600.18%14,42243.52%33,141
Brown16,48077.96%4,38020.72%1820.86%540.26%430.20%12,10057.24%21,139
Butler114,39261.26%69,61337.28%2,1771.17%4930.26%620.03%44,77923.98%186,737
Carroll10,74575.49%3,25122.84%1561.10%560.39%250.18%7,49452.65%14,233
Champaign14,58972.93%5,06225.31%2601.30%550.27%370.18%9,52747.62%20,003
Clark39,03260.65%24,07637.41%8291.29%2450.38%1690.26%14,95623.24%64,351
Clermont74,57067.36%34,09230.79%1,5131.37%00.00%5350.48%40,47836.57%110,710
Clinton15,48875.32%4,69722.84%2701.31%670.33%410.20%10,79152.48%20,563
Columbiana35,72671.51%13,35926.74%6071.21%1620.32%1060.21%22,36744.77%49,960
Coshocton12,32573.50%4,12524.60%2271.35%620.37%290.17%8,20048.90%16,768
Crawford15,43674.52%4,91623.73%2781.34%530.26%300.14%10,52050.79%20,713
Cuyahoga202,69932.32%416,17666.36%4,5930.73%2,0310.32%1,6610.26%−213,477−34.04%627,160
Darke22,00481.01%4,73117.42%3311.22%00.00%950.35%17,27363.59%27,161
Defiance13,03867.27%5,98130.86%2721.40%780.40%120.06%7,05736.41%19,381
Delaware66,35652.51%57,73545.69%1,6301.29%00.00%6530.52%8,6216.82%126,374
Erie22,16054.83%17,49343.28%5221.29%1530.38%880.22%4,66711.55%40,416
Fairfield50,79760.97%31,22437.48%1,0331.24%2230.27%340.04%19,57323.49%83,311
Fayette9,47375.03%2,97523.56%1321.05%320.25%140.11%6,49851.47%12,626
Franklin211,23733.40%409,14464.68%7,7181.22%2,1690.34%2,2640.26%−197,907−31.28%632,532
Fulton15,73168.98%6,66429.22%2991.31%710.31%410.18%9,06739.76%22,806
Gallia10,64577.14%2,99021.67%1320.96%320.23%00.00%7,65555.47%13,799
Geauga34,14360.95%21,20137.84%5340.95%00.00%1430.26%12,94223.11%56,021
Greene52,07258.74%34,79839.26%1,4581.64%2640.30%510.06%17,27419.48%88,643
Guernsey13,40773.41%4,57725.06%1770.97%670.37%360.20%8,83048.35%18,264
Hamilton177,88641.28%246,26657.15%5,2111.21%1,3890.32%1770.04%−68,380−15.87%430,929
Hancock26,31067.86%11,75730.32%5801.50%1100.28%140.04%14,55337.54%38,771
Hardin9,94975.10%3,06223.11%1921.45%440.33%00.00%6,88751.99%13,247
Harrison5,79275.58%1,76823.07%590.77%360.47%80.10%4,02452.51%7,663
Henry10,47970.86%4,06227.47%1751.18%440.30%280.19%6,41743.39%14,788
Highland15,67879.68%3,79919.31%1460.74%00.00%530.27%11,87960.37%19,676
Hocking9,73770.28%3,88028.00%1621.17%400.29%360.26%5,85742.28%13,855
Holmes10,79683.19%1,99415.36%1250.96%00.00%630.49%8,80267.83%12,978
Huron18,95669.72%7,75928.54%3871.42%830.31%530.02%11,19741.18%27,190
Jackson11,30976.36%3,31122.36%1440.97%00.00%460.31%7,99854.00%14,810
Jefferson22,82868.30%10,01829.98%3571.07%1000.30%1180.35%12,81038.32%33,421
Knox22,34071.01%8,58927.30%3741.19%860.27%700.22%13,75143.71%31,459
Lake73,27856.03%55,51442.45%1,2840.98%4080.31%2980.23%17,76413.58%130,782
Lawrence20,30672.06%7,48926.58%2590.92%00.00%1250.44%12,81745.48%28,179
Licking59,51463.05%33,05535.02%1,2791.35%3120.33%2360.25%26,45928.03%94,396
Logan17,96476.74%5,05521.59%2721.16%690.29%490.21%12,90955.15%23,409
Lorain79,52050.40%75,66747.96%1,6771.06%5340.34%3700.23%3,8532.44%157,768
Lucas81,76340.66%115,41157.39%2,6051.30%7800.39%5480.27%−33,648−16.73%201,107
Madison13,83569.57%5,69828.65%2691.35%00.00%850.43%8,13740.92%19,887
Mahoning59,90350.26%57,64148.36%9660.81%4360.37%2440.20%2,2621.90%119,190
Marion19,02368.25%8,26929.67%4141.49%1120.40%530.19%10,75438.58%27,871
Medina64,59860.92%39,80037.53%1,1441.08%2660.25%2330.22%24,79823.39%106,041
Meigs8,31675.83%2,49222.72%1111.01%320.29%160.15%5,82453.11%10,967
Mercer19,45281.79%4,03016.94%2040.86%670.28%310.13%15,42264.85%23,784
Miami41,37171.23%15,66326.97%7821.35%00.00%2610.45%25,70844.26%58,077
Monroe5,46376.31%1,60522.42%540.75%260.36%110.15%3,85853.89%7,159
Montgomery129,03447.94%135,06450.18%3,4181.27%8840.33%7640.28%−6,030−2.24%269,164
Morgan5,04173.53%1,72525.16%640.93%00.00%260.38%3,31648.37%6,856
Morrow14,07776.22%4,04821.92%2571.39%700.38%160.09%10,02954.30%18,468
Muskingum27,86768.86%11,97129.58%4591.13%1630.40%70.02%15,89639.28%40,467
Noble5,13580.89%1,17018.43%250.39%00.00%180.28%3,96562.46%6,348
Ottawa14,62860.83%9,00837.46%2921.21%740.31%440.18%5,62823.37%24,046
Paulding7,08674.72%2,21323.33%1241.31%380.40%230.24%4,87351.39%9,484
Perry12,35774.10%4,09824.57%1701.02%470.28%40.02%8,25949.53%16,676
Pickaway20,59372.73%7,30425.80%2951.04%00.00%1220.43%13,28946.93%28,314
Pike9,15773.70%3,11025.03%1230.99%00.00%340.27%6,04748.67%12,424
Portage45,99055.39%35,66142.95%9061.09%2950.36%1700.20%10,32912.44%83,022
Preble17,02277.94%4,49320.57%2431.11%00.00%820.38%12,52957.37%21,840
Putnam16,41282.28%3,19516.02%2471.24%610.31%320.16%13,21766.26%19,947
Richland41,47269.15%17,64029.41%6801.13%1680.28%150.03%23,83239.74%59,975
Ross22,27866.77%10,55731.64%3451.03%1160.35%690.21%11,72135.13%33,365
Sandusky18,89662.72%10,59635.17%4481.49%1320.44%560.19%8,30027.55%30,128
Scioto22,60970.54%9,08028.33%2620.82%910.28%90.03%13,52942.21%32,051
Seneca17,08666.10%8,26631.98%3571.38%940.36%450.17%8,82034.12%25,848
Shelby20,42280.74%4,46517.65%2901.15%710.28%450.18%15,95763.09%25,293
Stark111,09758.44%75,90439.93%2,1631.14%6830.36%2460.13%35,19318.51%190,093
Summit124,83344.38%151,66853.92%3,0031.07%8880.32%8880.26%−26,835−9.54%281,280
Trumbull55,19454.57%44,51944.01%9130.90%3560.35%1700.17%10,67510.56%101,152
Tuscarawas30,45869.09%12,88929.24%4941.12%1610.37%850.19%17,56939.85%44,087
Union21,66964.62%11,14133.22%5351.60%1000.30%900.27%10,52831.40%33,535
Van Wert11,65077.70%3,06720.45%2011.34%420.28%340.23%8,58357.25%14,994
Vinton4,63276.71%1,33122.04%470.78%170.28%110.18%3,30154.67%6,038
Warren87,98864.49%46,06933.76%1,7471.28%00.00%6370.47%41,91930.73%136,441
Washington22,30769.53%9,24328.81%3721.16%1090.34%500.16%13,06440.72%32,081
Wayne36,75967.72%16,66030.69%6651.23%1730.32%260.05%20,09937.03%54,283
Williams13,45272.12%4,84225.96%2851.53%700.38%20.01%8,61046.16%18,651
Wood35,75752.89%30,61745.29%9921.47%2110.31%230.03%5,1407.60%67,600
Wyandot8,46274.21%2,73323.97%1551.36%380.33%150.13%5,72950.24%11,403
Totals3,154,83453.18%2,679,16545.16%67,5691.14%18,8120.32%12,0180.20%475,6698.03%5,932,398

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 12 out of the 16 congressional districts in Ohio.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
50.9%47.7%
55.6%42.9%Brad Wenstrup
28.4%70%Joyce Beatty
67.1%31.2%Jim Jordan
61.6%36.7%Bob Latta
72.2%26.5%Bill Johnson
65.3%33.2%
66%32.5%
39.7%58.8%Marcy Kaptur
51.4%47%Mike Turner
19.2%79.8%
52.2%46.3%Troy Balderson
47.6%51%Tim Ryan
53.9%44.9%David Joyce
56.3%42.2%
56.5%42.2%Anthony Gonzalez

Analysis

Ohio was considered one of the most competitive states in the Midwest in the early 21st century. For example, it was a vital tipping-point state in the heavily contested 2004 election, and its projection in 2012 put Barack Obama over the top in the Electoral College. After Trump won Ohio in 2016 by an unexpectedly large margin of 8 points, it was initially considered out of reach for Democrats. However, Democrats contested it after polling pointed to a possibly close result in 2020.

From 1964 through 2016, Ohio had been a reliable bellwether, voting for the winner of every presidential election. In 2016, however, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation as a whole, indicating that it might be on the cusp of losing its bellwether status.[89] And indeed, in 2020, Ohio backed the losing nominee for the first time since it backed Richard Nixon in 1960, and in doing so, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation overall for the second time in a row, giving Trump a comfortable eight-point margin even as he lost nationally. This indicated that Ohio is likely following a similar path to that of Missouri, another former bellwether state in the Midwest that has more recently become reliably red. (Missouri voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1904 to 2004 except for 1956. In 2008, Missouri narrowly backed Republican John McCain despite the fact that he lost the election by a wide margin nationally, and in every election since it has voted Republican by a comfortable margin.) In this election, Ohio weighed in at 12.5% more Republican than the nation as a whole, even voting more Republican than Texas, a Southern state that has been a GOP stronghold for four decades.

While Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in the Midwest at large, Trump managed to flip two Ohio counties Republican: Lorain, a suburban county of Cleveland, and Mahoning, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Lorain County since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the first to win Mahoning County since Richard Nixon in 1972. Biden became the first Democrat since FDR in 1932[4] to win the White House without carrying Mahoning County and Trumbull County, and the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win the White House without carrying Lorain County. On the other hand, Biden flipped back Montgomery County, home to Dayton, into the Democratic column, a county which Trump had flipped in 2016. He also came within 7 points of flipping suburban Delaware County in the Columbus area, the closest a Democrat has come to flipping it since 1964.

Biden's results were an all time-best for Democrats in two counties - Franklin, home to the state capital of Columbus, where he received 64.68% of the vote and beat Trump by 31 points, and Hamilton, home to Cincinnati, where he received 57.15% of the vote and beat Trump by 16 points—even greater than Franklin D. Roosevelt's and Lyndon B. Johnson's landslides. Biden's Delaware County result of 45.69% was a 56-year best, and in Warren County of suburban Cincinnati, his result was a 44-year best. He also outperformed Obama's 2012 results in Butler (Cincinnati suburbs) and Greene (Dayton suburbs) counties.

However, in all other counties, Biden underperformed Barack Obama's 2008 and 2012 results and occasionally also John Kerry's 2004 results. For example, in Athens County, home to Ohio University, which has been one of the Democrats' strongest counties that Obama won by 35 points in both 2008 and 2012, Biden improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but Trump reduced his 2016 losing margin from 17 points to 15 points and managed to win 40% of the county's vote, the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden underperformed Clinton in the Northeast and Lake Erie area, also in the most populous counties - in addition to losing Mahoning and Lorain counties, although in Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, he improved Clinton's 2016 result by 1 point, his 34-point winning margin was one point worse than Clinton's, six points down from Obama's 2012 40-point and only 0.36 percent better than Kerry's in 2004. In Lucas County, home to Toledo, he improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but at a 1 percent worse margin at 16.73%, a 32-year low for Democrats after Michael Dukakis won it by under 9 points in 1988. While in Summit County, home to Akron, he improved on Clinton's result by 2.35 percent and the margin by 1 percent, at 9.5 percent it was still a far cry from Obama's 17-percent margin in 2008, and second-worst for Democrats since 1988. In Stark County, home to Canton, he improved on Clinton's result by 1.25 percent, but his 1.35% worse losing margin of 18.51 percent was a 36-year low for Democrats, after Walter Mondale lost it by 20.18 percent in 1984.

This was the first presidential election in which a candidate received more than 3 million votes in Ohio. Ohio is one of three states, the others being Iowa and Florida, that voted twice for Barack Obama and twice for Donald Trump. This ended Ohio's 14-election bellwether streak from 1964 to 2016.

Mahoning County

Mahoning County, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown, voted Republican for the first time since Richard Nixon's landslide re-election in 1972. The slim victory by Trump marked a collapse in Democrats' support among white working-class voters, and tightened the President's grip on blue-collar white voters.

David Betras, who was Democratic chairman of Mahoning County until 2019, speculated on the disconnect between Democrats in Washington who focused messaging Trump's unfitness for office, his taxes and possible impeachment, and the concerns of blue-collar workers were supporting Trump for his trade war with China, regardless of economic pain caused by tariffs.[90]

Voter demographics

Biden!
TrumpNo
Answer
% of
Voters
Party
Democrat927131
Republican793N/A39
Independent4848430
Gender
Men3959247
Women5148153
Race
White3960184
Black918111
Latino573943
AsianN/AN/AN/A1
Other485112
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men3365240
White women4455144
Black men861134
Black women93617
Latino men (of any race)N/AN/AN/A1
Latino women (of any race)603912
All other races504912
Age
18–24 years old554239
25–29 years old603376
30–39 years old5344315
40–49 years old4752116
50–64 years old4258N/A29
65 and older3762123
Sexual orientation
LGBT821536
Heterosexual4257194
First time voter
First time voter455329
Everyone else4554191
Education
High school or less3564123
Some college education4256228
Associate degree4454215
Bachelor's degree5048221
Advanced degree6236214
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates5246230
White no college degree3167253
Non-white college graduates782114
Non-white no college degree7919112
Income
Under $30,0005346115
$30,000–49,9995246220
$50,000–99,9994355234
$100,000–199,9994158125
Over $200,000475037
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases 7917421
Legal in most cases 6534130
Illegal in most cases1386130
Illegal in all cases1089114
Region
Cleveland Area6039115
North4553225
West2672211
Columbus Area5445118
Cincinnati/Dayton Area4752121
Ohio Valley2871111
Source: CNN[91]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Further reading

External links

Notes and References

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