2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Country:North Carolina
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Next Year:2024
Turnout:77.4%
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:15
Popular Vote1:2,758,775
Percentage1:49.93%
Nominee2:Joe Biden
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Delaware
Running Mate2:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:2,684,292
Percentage2:48.59%
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state was narrowly won by the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Polls of the state throughout the campaign indicated a close race, with most organizations considering it either a tossup or leaning towards Biden. Despite this, Trump ultimately won North Carolina with a 49.93% plurality over Biden's 48.59% vote share (a margin of 1.34%). Trump also became the fourth-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency. This was Trump's narrowest victory in any state, and it was a closer result than his 3.67% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Mitt Romney's 2.04% margin over Barack Obama in 2012. North Carolina was the only state in the 2020 election in which Donald Trump won with under 50% of the vote. In the 2020 election, North Carolina was 5.8% right of the nation as a whole. The state last voted Democratic in 2008 and furthermore, it had last voted more Republican than neighboring Georgia in 2000.

Trump's victory was, alongside his victory (and actual improvement over 2016) in Florida, one of the upsets of the cycle. Election data website FiveThirtyEight's election forecast had Biden up in both states,[3] albeit by small margins. Similarly, prediction websites Inside Elections, Sabato Crystal Ball, The Economist, and ABC News all had Biden favored in the state.

Primary elections

Presidential preference primaries were held on March 3, 2020 (first cases of COVID-19), for each of the political parties with state ballot access.

Democratic primary

See main article: 2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary.

Despite speculation that he might seek the Democratic nomination, Roy Cooper, the Governor of North Carolina, declined to run.[4] [5]

Republican primary

See main article: 2020 North Carolina Republican presidential primary. The North Carolina Republican Party submitted to the state only the name of incumbent President Donald Trump to be listed on the primary ballot. The campaign of Bill Weld "has written to the [state Board of Elections] asking to be added to the ballot, arguing that his candidacy meets the legal test because he’s received 'widespread news coverage,' raised more than $1.2 million, and has qualified for the primary ballot in six other states," according to the News and Observer.[6] Joe Walsh similarly petitioned the state board of elections. On Dec. 20, 2019, the state board unanimously voted to include both Weld and Walsh on the ballot.[7]

2020 North Carolina Republican presidential primary[8] ! style="text-align:left;"
CandidateVotes%Delegates[9]
Donald Trump (incumbent)750,60093.5371
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)16,3562.040
Bill Weld15,4861.930
No Preference20,0852.50
Total802,527100%71

Libertarian primary

See main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries.

Election Name:2020 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary
Country:North Carolina
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina#Libertarian primary
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina#Libertarian primary
Next Year:2024
Election Date:March 3, 2020
Outgoing Members:MA
Elected Members:MO
Candidate1:None of the above
Color1:000000
Home State1:N/A
Popular Vote1:2,060
Percentage1:45.2%
Candidate2:Jacob Hornberger
Color2:DAA521
Home State2:Virginia
Popular Vote2:604
Percentage2:13.3%
Candidate3:John McAfee
Color3:ff497b
Home State3:Tennessee
Popular Vote3:570
Percentage3:12.5%
Candidate4:Kim Ruff
(withdrawn)
Color4:88aa00
Home State4:Arizona
Popular Vote4:545
Percentage4:12%
Candidate5:Vermin Supreme
Color5:fb9bc2
Home State5:Massachusetts
Popular Vote5:410
Percentage5:9%
Candidate6:Ken Armstrong
Color6:F0E68C
Home State6:Oregon
Popular Vote6:366
Percentage6:8%
Map Size:300px
North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 3, 2020[10]
CandidateVotesPercentage
None of the above2,06030%
Jacob Hornberger6049%
John McAfee5708%
Kim Ruff (withdrawn)5458%
Vermin Supreme4106%
Ken Armstrong3665%
Jo Jorgensen3165%
Steve Richey2784%
Adam Kokesh2403%
Max Abramson2363%
James Ogle2323%
Kenneth Blevins1993%
Dan Behrman1943%
Jedidiah Hill1943%
Souraya Faas1933%
Erik Gerhardt1502%
Arvin Vohra1272%
Total6,914100%

Green primary

See main article: 2020 Green Party presidential primaries.

Constitution primary

General election

Predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[11]
Inside Elections[12]
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]
Politico[14]
RCP[15]
Niskanen[16]
CNN[17]
The Economist[18]
CBS News[19]
270towin[20]
ABC News[21]
NPR[22]
NBC News[23]
FiveThirtyEight[24]

Polling

Graphical summaryAggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[25] October 31 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.8%47.5%4.7%Biden +0.3
Real Clear Politics[26] October 26 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202047.6%47.8%4.6%Trump +0.2
FiveThirtyEight[27] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202048.9%47.1%4.0%Biden +1.8
Average48.1%47.5%4.4%Biden +0.6

June 1 – October 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen
Howie
Hawkins
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20205,363 (LV)± 2%48%50%--––
Change Research/CNBC[29] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020473 (LV)± 4.51%47%49%2%1%–1%
Swayable[30] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020690 (LV)± 5.3%46%52%1%0%––
Ipsos/Reuters[31] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020707 (LV)± 4.2%48%49%1%1%2%–
48%49%--3%1%
48%50%--2%–
Data for Progress[32] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020908 (LV)± 3.3%48%50%1%1%0%–
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[33] Oct 30–31, 2020676 (LV)± 3.7%49%51%--––
AtlasIntel[34] Oct 30–31, 2020812 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%--3%–
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[35] Oct 30–31, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%48%44%2%-–7%
Emerson College[36] Oct 29–31, 2020855 (LV)± 3.3%47%47%--6%–
Morning Consult[37] Oct 22–31, 20201,982 (LV)± 2%48%49%--––
CNN/SSRS[38] Oct 23–30, 2020901 (LV)± 4.1%45%51%2%1%1%1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[39] Oct 28–29, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%--2%–
Trafalgar Group[40] Oct 27–29, 20201,082 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%3%-1%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[41] Oct 26–29, 20201,489 (LV)–47%49%2%0%0%2%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill[42] Oct 26–29, 2020903 (LV)–48%49%--–3%
East Carolina University[43] Oct 27–28, 20201,103 (LV)± 3.4%48%50%--2%0%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R)/NSJ[44] Oct 27–28, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%48%46%1%1%2%2%
Marist College/NBC[45] Oct 25–28, 2020800 (LV)± 4.7%46%52%--2%1%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20208,720 (LV)–47%52%--––
Gravis Marketing[46] Oct 26–27, 2020614 (LV)± 4%46%49%--–4%
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[47] Oct 26–27, 2020937 (V)± 3.2%47%51%--–3%
Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R)[48] Oct 24–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%48%--––
Siena College/NYT Upshot[49] Oct 23–27, 20201,034 (LV)± 3.4%45%48%2%1%0%4%
Ipsos/Reuters[50] Oct 21–27, 2020647 (LV)± 4.4%48%49%1%1%1%–
48%49%--2%1%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[51] Oct 24–26, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%--3%2%
46%50%--3%2%
49%47%--3%2%
Swayable[52] Oct 23–26, 2020396 (LV)± 6.8%48%50%2%0%––
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV[53] Oct 23–26, 2020627 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%--2%2%
YouGov/UMass Amherst[54] Oct 20–26, 2020911 (LV)± 4.2%48%48%1%0%1%2%
Wick Surveys[55] Oct 24–25, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%47%--––
Harper Polling/Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[56] Oct 22–25, 2020504 (LV)± 4.37%46%47%1%0%0%6%
YouGov/CBS[57] Oct 20–23, 20201,022 (LV)± 4.1%47%51%––2%0%
Trafalgar Group[58] Oct 20–22, 20201,098 (LV)± 2.9%48.8%46%2.3%0.4%0.8%1.7%
Citizen Data[59] Oct 17–20, 20201000 (LV)± 3.1%44%50%1%0.2%1.3%3.6%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[60] Oct 20–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%--2%3%
Ipsos/Reuters[61] Oct 14–20, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%47%49%1%1%1%–
46%49%--2%2%
Morning ConsultOct 11–20, 20201,904 (LV)± 2.2%47%50%--––
Meredith College[62] Oct 16–19, 2020732 (LV)± 3.5%44%48%1%1%0%4%
Change Research/CNBC[63] Oct 16–19, 2020521 (LV)–47%50%--––
Data for Progress (D)[64] Oct 15–18, 2020929 (LV)± 3.2%44%48%1%1%–5%
East Carolina University[65] Oct 15–18, 20201,155 (LV)± 3.4%47%51%--2%0%
ABC/Washington Post[66] Oct 12–17, 2020646 (LV)± 4.5%48%49%1%0%0%1%
48%50%--0%1%
Emerson College[67] Oct 11–14, 2020721 (LV)± 3.6%49%49%--2%–
Civiqs/Daily Kos[68] Oct 11–14, 20201,211 (LV)± 3.3%46%51%--2%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[69] Oct 10–13, 2020994 (LV)–46%49%1%0%––
Siena College/NYT Upshot[70] Oct 9–13, 2020627 (LV)± 4.5%42%46%2%1%1%8%
Ipsos/Reuters[71] Oct 7–13, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%48%48%2%0%1%–
47%48%--3%3%
Monmouth University[72] Oct 8–11, 2020500 (RV)± 4.4%46%49%3%0%0%2%
500 (LV)46%50%--2%2%
500 (LV)48%49%--2%1%
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV[73] Oct 8–11, 2020669 (LV)± 4.8%45%50%--2%3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./American Greatness PAC[74] Oct 7–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%46%48%2%-1%4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[75] Oct 7–11, 2020800 (LV)–45%47%2%1%1%4%
43%49%2%1%1%4%
47%44%2%1%1%4%
Morning Consult[76] Oct 2–11, 20201,993 (LV)± 2.2%46%50%--––
YouGov/CCES[77] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 20201,627 (LV)–45%49%--––
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOct 9–10, 2020750 (LV)–42%49%1%0%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[78] Oct 4–6, 2020938 (LV)± 3.2%44%49%1%0%0%5%
Ipsos/Reuters[79] Sep 29 – Oct 6, 2020693 (LV)± 4.2%47%47%--2%3%
Public Policy Polling[80] Oct 4–5, 2020911 (V)–46%50%--–3%
Data For Progress (D)[81] Sep 30 – Oct 5, 20201,285 (LV)± 2.7%44%51%2%0%–3%
Change Research/CNBC[82] Oct 2–4, 2020396 (LV)–47%49%--––
East Carolina University[83] Oct 2–4, 20201,232 (LV)± 3.2%46%50%--2%2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20203,495 (LV)–46%52%--–2%
ALG Research/Piedmont Rising[84] Sep 22–28, 2020822 (V)–47%50%--––
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[85] Sep 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%47%49%--––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[86] Sep 23–26, 20201,097 (LV)± 2.96%45%47%2%0%1%6%
YouGov/CBS[87] Sep 22–25, 20201,213 (LV)± 3.6%46%48%--2%4%
YouGov/UMass Lowell[88] Sep 18–25, 2020921 (LV)± 4.1%47%47%2%1%0%2%
49%48%--2%2%
Meredith College[89] Sep 18–22, 2020705 (RV)± 3.5%45%46%2%0%1%6%
Change Research/CNBC[90] Sep 18–20, 2020579 (LV)–46%48%--––
Harper Polling/Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[91] Sep 17–20, 2020612 (LV)± 3.96%45%44%2%0%0%8%
Emerson College[92] Sep 16–18, 2020717 (LV)± 3.6%49%51%--––
Siena College/NYT Upshot[93] Sep 11–16, 2020653 (LV)± 4.3%44%45%2%1%0%8%
Ipsos/Reuters[94] Sep 11–16, 2020586 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%--3%3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[95] Sep 12–15, 20201,092 (LV)± 2.97%45%47%1%1%0%5%
Suffolk University/USA Today[96] Sep 11–14, 2020500 (LV)–42.8%46.2%4.8%0.2%1.8%4.2%
SurveyUSA/WRAL TV[97] Sep 10–13, 2020596 (LV)± 5.6%47%47%--2%5%
CNN/SSRS[98] Sep 9–13, 2020787 (LV)± 3.9%46%49%2%1%0%2%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[99] Aug 29 – Sep 13, 20201,172 (RV)± 3%43%45%--4%9%
Trafalgar[100] Sep 9–11, 20201,046 (LV)± 3%47.8%46.1%1.6%0.5%1.5%2.5%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[101] https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/north_carolina_trump_48_biden_46Sep 7–8, 20201,000 (LV)± 3%49%48%--3%–
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Group/AARP[102] Aug 28 – Sep 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%48%48%--1%4%
Morning Consult[103] Aug 29 – Sep 7, 20201,592 (LV)± (2%-4%)47%48%--––
Change Research/CNBC[104] Sep 4–6, 2020442 (LV)–47%49%--4%–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[105] Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020951 (LV)± 3.18%44%43%1%1%1%9%
Monmouth University[106] Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%45%47%3%0%1%3%
401 (LV)46%48%--3%3%
401 (LV)46%48%--3%3%
Fox News[107] Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020722 (LV)± 3.5%46%50%1%0%0%2%
804 (RV)± 3.5%45%49%2%1%2%3%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20202,914 (LV)–51%48%--–2%
East Carolina University[108] Aug 29–30, 20201,101 (LV)± 3.4%49%47%--2%3%
Morning Consult[109] Aug 21–30, 20201,567 (LV)± (2%–4%)47%49%--––
Change Research/CNBC[110] Aug 21–23, 2020560 (LV)–47%48%––––
Morning Consult[111] Aug 14–23, 20201,541 (LV)± 2.0%46%49%––1%3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112] Aug 16–17, 2020967 (LV)± 3.09%46%44%2%0%1%7%
Morning ConsultAug 7–16, 20201,493 (LV)± (2%–4%)46%49%--––
East Carolina University[113] Aug 12–13, 20201,255 (RV)± 3.2%47%47%––3%4%
Emerson College[114] Aug 8–10, 2020673 (LV)± 3.8%51%49%––––
Harper Polling/Civitas[115] Aug 6–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%44%45%2%1%1%7%
Change Research/CNBC[116] Aug 7–9, 2020493 (LV)–48%47%––––
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[117] Aug 6–8, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%48%47%––––
Data for Progress[118] Jul 24 – Aug 2, 20201,170 (LV)–45%49%–––6%
44%46%2%1%–7%
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[119] Jul 30–31, 2020934 (V)–46%49%–––6%
YouGov/CBS[120] Jul 28–31, 20201,129 (LV)± 3.9%44%48%––2%5%
HIT Strategies/DFER[121] Jul 23–31, 2020400 (RV)± 4.9%37%47%––4%10%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20203,466 (LV)–50%49%--–2%
Change Research/CNBC[122] https://web.archive.org/web/20200806112252/https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-10Jul 24–26, 2020284 (LV)–46%49%––––
Morning Consult[123] Jul 17–26, 20201,504 (LV)± 2.5%47%47%––––
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[124] Jul 23–24, 2020884 (V)–46%49%–––5%
Cardinal Point Analytics[125] Jul 22–24, 2020735 (LV)± 3.6%48%47%1%––4%
Zogby Analytics[126] Jul 21–23, 2020809 (RV)± 3.4%40%44%4%1%–11%
Marist College/NBC News[127] Jul 14–22, 2020882 (RV)± 4.0%44%51%––2%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128] Jul 19–21, 2020919 (LV)–42%43%2%1%1%11%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[129] Jul 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%49%46%–––5%
Cardinal Point Analytics[130] Jul 13–15, 2020547 (LV)± 4.2%49%48%1%––3%
Change Research/CNBC[131] Jul 10–12, 2020655 (LV)–46%47%––––
Public Policy Polling[132] Jul 7–8, 2020818 (V)± 3.4%46%50%–––5%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20201,498 (LV)–49%49%--–1%
Change Research/CNBC[133] Jun 26–28, 2020468 (LV)–44%51%––––
East Carolina University[134] Jun 22–25, 20201,149 (RV)± 3.4%44%45%––7%4%
Public Policy Polling[135] Jun 22–23, 20201,157 (V)–46%48%–––6%
Fox News[136] Jun 20–23, 20201,012 (RV)± 3%45%47%––5%3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[137] Jun 8–18, 2020653 (RV)± 4.1%40%49%––4%7%
Gravis Marketing/OANN[138] Jun 17, 2020631 (RV)± 3.9%46%43%–––10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139] Jun 14–17, 2020902 (LV)± 3.26%40%46%1%0%1%11%
Change Research/CNBC[140] Jun 12–14, 2020378 (LV)–45%47%1%1%––
Public Policy Polling[141] https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-key-nc-races/Jun 2–3, 2020913 (V)± 3.2%45%49%–––6%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
OtherUndecided
Change Research/CNBC[142] May 29–31, 2020806 (LV)–45%46%4%4%
Harper Polling/Civitas[143] May 26–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%47%44%–9%
Morning ConsultMay 17–26, 20201,403 (LV)–49%46%––
Neighbourhood Research & Media[144] May 12–21, 2020391 (LV)–42%42%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] May 10–14, 2020859 (LV)± 3.3%43%45%3%8%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[146] May 9–13, 2020500 (RV)–47%47%–6%
East Carolina University[147] May 7–9, 20201,111 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%7%4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[148] May 2–4, 20201,362 (RV)± 3%46%49%4%2%
Meredith College[149] Apr 27–28, 2020604 (RV)± 4.0%40%47%5%7%
SurveyUSA[150] Apr 23–26, 2020580 (LV)± 5.5%45%50%–5%
Public Policy Polling[151] Apr 20–21, 20201,275 (RV)–46%49%–5%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Garin-Hart-Yang/Put NC First (D)[152] Apr 13–18, 2020800 (LV)–45%48%––
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave[153] Apr 13–16, 2020500 (LV)–46%48%1%4%
Public Policy Polling[154] Apr 14–15, 20201,318 (V)–47%48%–5%
Harper Polling[155] Apr 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%49%42%–9%
East Carolina University[156] Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%46%48%––
NBC News/Marist College[157] Feb 23–27, 20202,120 (RV)± 2.4%45%49%1%5%
SurveyUSA[158] Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%45%49%–6%
Climate Nexus[159] Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%44%46%–11%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
OtherUndecided
Fox News[160] Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%43%45%5%5%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[161] Oct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%––
East Carolina University[162] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%46%50%4%–
Meredith College[163] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%38%35%20%7%
Public Policy Polling[164] Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%46%51%–4%
SurveyUSA[165] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%41%49%–10%
Harper Polling[166] Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%44%–11%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[167] Jul 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%49%–5%
Public Policy Polling[168] Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%46%49%–5%
Emerson College[169] May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%44%56%––
Spry Strategies (R)[170] May 25 – Jun 1, 2019730 (LV)–52%41%–7%
Harper Polling[171] Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%43%39%7%11%
Public Policy Polling[172] Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%44%49%–7%
Meredith College[173] Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%45%46%8%1%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Michael
Bloomberg (D)		Undecided
East Carolina UniversityFeb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%–
Climate NexusFeb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%41%47%12%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Cory
Booker (D)		OtherUndecided
Harper PollingFeb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%44%36%6%14%
Public Policy PollingJan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%–9%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAFeb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%46%45%–9%
Climate NexusFeb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%42%–14%
Fox NewsNov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%43%39%6%8%
East Carolina University[174] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%49.4%46.8%3.8%–
Meredith CollegeSep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%38%27%25.1%8.9%
Public Policy PollingOct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%46%–7%
SurveyUSAAug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%41%–16%
Public Policy PollingJun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%–9%
Emerson CollegeMay 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%48%52%––

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		OtherUndecided
East Carolina University[175] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%49.3%46.9%3.8%–
Meredith CollegeSep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39.1%28.4%24.8%7.7%
Public Policy PollingOct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%47%–5%
SurveyUSAAug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%44%43%–13%
Harper PollingAug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%47%41%–12%
Public Policy PollingJun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%46%–7%
Emerson CollegeMay 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%51%49%––
Harper PollingFeb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%34%5%16%
Public Policy PollingJan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%45%45%–10%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Amy
Klobuchar (D)		Undecided
SurveyUSAFeb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%46%46%12%
Climate NexusFeb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%40%17%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling/Civitas Institute[176] Apr 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%50%40%–10%
East Carolina UniversityFeb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%48%43%––
NBC News/Marist CollegeFeb 23–27, 20202,120 (RV)± 2.4%46%48%1%5%
SurveyUSAFeb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%45%50%–5%
Climate NexusFeb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%47%–10%
Fox NewsNov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%44%45%4%5%
NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeOct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%––
East Carolina University[177] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%48%49%4%–
Meredith CollegeSep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39%33%23%6%
Public Policy PollingOct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%50%–4%
SurveyUSAAug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%47%–10%
Harper PollingAug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%44%–10%
Public Policy PollingJun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%48%–5%
Emerson CollegeMay 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%46%54%––
Harper PollingFeb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%34%9%10%
Public Policy PollingJan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%45%48%–8%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
East Carolina UniversityFeb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%49%41%––
SurveyUSAFeb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%48%44%–8%
Climate NexusFeb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%45%43%–12%
Fox NewsNov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%44%43%4%6%
NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeOct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%––
East Carolina University[178] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%48.5%47.6%3.9%–
Meredith CollegeSep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39.1%33%20.2%7.4%
Public Policy PollingOct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%46%49%–5%
SurveyUSAAug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%44%–12%
Harper PollingAug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%43%–11%
Public Policy PollingJun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%48%46%–6%
Emerson CollegeMay 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%50%50%––
Public Policy PollingJan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%46%–8%
Meredith CollegeJan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%48%40%12%1%

with Donald Trump and Michelle Obama

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Oprah
Winfrey (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAAug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%45%–12%
Meredith CollegeJan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%48%38%12%2%

with Donald Trump and a person whose name was randomly chosen out of a phone book

with Donald Trump and Roy Cooper

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
ALG Research/End Citizens United[179] Jan 8–12, 2020700 (LV)–44%48%––
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[180] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461979-tillis-trails-democratic-senate-challenger-by-2-points-pollSep 16–17, 2019628 (RV)± 3.9%47%50%–3%
Elon University[181] Feb 20 – Mar 7, 2019914 (RV)± 3.5%36%48%6%9%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Results

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Alamance46,05653.50%38,82545.10%1,2101.40%7,2318.40%86,091
Alexander15,88878.51%4,14520.48%2031.01%11,74358.03%20,236
Alleghany4,52774.51%1,48624.46%631.03%3,04150.05%6,076
Anson5,32147.53%5,78951.72%840.75%-468-4.19%11,194
Ashe11,45172.41%4,16426.33%1991.26%7,28746.08%15,814
Avery7,17275.83%2,19123.17%951.00%4,98152.66%9,458
Beaufort16,43762.46%9,63336.61%2450.93%6,80425.85%26,315
Bertie3,81738.89%5,93960.51%590.60%-2,122-21.62%9,815
Bladen9,67656.50%7,32642.78%1230.72%2,35013.72%17,125
Brunswick55,85061.94%33,31036.94%1,0151.12%22,54025.00%90,175
Buncombe62,41238.63%96,51559.74%2,6421.63%-36,103-21.11%161,569
Burke31,01969.55%13,11829.41%4651.04%17,90140.14%44,602
Cabarrus63,23753.94%52,16244.50%1,8281.56%11,0759.44%117,227
Caldwell32,11974.99%10,24523.92%4651.09%21,87451.07%42,829
Camden4,31272.43%1,53725.82%1041.75%2,77546.61%5,953
Carteret30,02870.33%12,09328.32%5741.35%17,93542.01%42,695
Caswell7,08958.82%4,86040.33%1020.85%2,22918.49%12,051
Catawba56,58867.83%25,68930.79%1,1481.38%30,89937.04%83,425
Chatham21,18643.59%26,78755.12%6261.29%-5,601-11.53%48,599
Cherokee12,62876.89%3,58321.82%2121.29%9,04555.07%16,423
Chowan4,47157.44%3,24741.71%660.85%1,22415.73%7,784
Clay5,11274.16%1,69924.65%821.19%3,41349.51%6,893
Cleveland33,79865.87%16,95533.05%5551.08%16,84332.82%51,308
Columbus16,83263.65%9,44635.72%1680.63%7,38627.93%26,446
Craven31,03258.48%21,14839.85%8851.67%9,88418.63%53,065
Cumberland60,03240.80%84,46957.40%2,6491.80%-24,437-16.60%147,150
Currituck11,65772.19%4,19525.98%2951.83%7,46246.21%16,147
Dare13,93857.52%9,93641.00%3581.48%4,00216.52%24,232
Davidson64,65873.05%22,63625.57%1,2201.38%42,02247.48%88,514
Davie18,22872.02%6,71326.52%3701.46%11,51545.50%25,311
Duplin13,79360.72%8,76738.60%1550.68%5,02622.12%22,715
Durham32,45918.04%144,68880.42%2,7671.54%-112,229-68.38%179,914
Edgecombe9,20636.13%16,08963.15%1820.72%-6,883-27.02%25,477
Forsyth85,06442.26%113,03356.16%3,1731.58%-27,969-13.90%201,270
Franklin20,90155.96%15,87942.51%5711.53%5,02213.45%37,351
Gaston73,03363.23%40,95935.46%1,5061.31%32,07427.77%115,498
Gates3,36756.39%2,54642.64%580.97%82113.75%5,971
Graham3,71079.53%90519.40%501.07%2,80560.13%4,665
Granville16,64752.68%14,56546.09%3861.23%2,0826.59%31,598
Greene4,87455.68%3,83243.78%470.54%1,04211.90%8,753
Guilford107,29437.72%173,08660.84%4,1061.44%-65,792-23.12%284,486
Halifax10,08039.13%15,54560.35%1340.52%-5,465-21.22%25,759
Harnett35,17760.35%22,09337.90%1,0231.75%13,08422.45%58,293
Haywood22,83462.49%13,14435.97%5641.54%9,69026.52%36,542
Henderson40,03258.55%27,21139.80%1,1281.65%12,82118.75%68,371
Hertford3,47932.72%7,09766.74%580.54%-3,618-34.02%10,634
Hoke9,45343.69%11,80454.55%3821.76%-2,351-10.86%21,639
Hyde1,41856.90%1,04641.97%281.13%37214.93%2,492
Iredell67,01065.46%33,88833.10%1,4731.44%33,12232.36%102,371
Jackson11,35653.00%9,59144.76%4812.24%1,7658.24%21,428
Johnston68,35361.38%41,25737.05%1,7471.57%27,09624.33%111,357
Jones3,28059.37%2,19739.76%480.87%1,08319.61%5,525
Lee16,46956.77%12,14341.86%3961.37%4,32614.91%29,008
Lenoir14,59051.36%13,60547.89%2140.75%9853.47%28,409
Lincoln36,34172.37%13,27426.43%6021.20%23,06745.94%50,217
Macon14,21168.51%6,23030.03%3021.46%7,98138.48%20,743
Madison7,97961.02%4,90137.48%1961.50%3,07823.54%13,076
Martin6,53252.09%5,91147.14%970.77%6214.95%12,540
McDowell16,88373.39%5,83225.35%2881.26%11,05148.04%23,003
Mecklenburg179,21131.60%378,10766.68%9,7351.72%-198,896-35.08%567,053
Mitchell7,09078.42%1,86720.65%840.93%5,22357.77%9,041
Montgomery8,41165.46%4,32733.68%1110.86%4,08431.78%12,849
Moore36,76463.02%20,77935.62%7961.36%15,98527.40%58,339
Nash25,82749.41%25,94749.64%4970.95%-120-0.23%52,271
New Hanover63,33148.04%66,13850.17%2,3611.79%-2,807-2.13%131,830
Northampton3,98939.46%6,06960.03%520.51%-2,080-20.57%10,110
Onslow46,07863.79%24,26633.59%1,8912.62%21,81230.20%72,235
Orange20,17623.74%63,59474.82%1,2271.44%-43,418-51.08%84,997
Pamlico4,84963.54%2,71335.55%690.91%2,13627.99%7,631
Pasquotank9,77049.10%9,83249.41%2951.49%-62-0.31%19,897
Pender21,95664.26%11,72334.31%4901.43%10,23329.95%34,169
Perquimans4,90365.51%2,49233.30%891.19%2,41132.21%7,484
Person13,18460.22%8,46538.66%2451.12%4,71921.56%21,894
Pitt38,98244.51%47,25253.96%1,3391.53%-8,270-9.45%87,573
Polk7,68962.22%4,51836.56%1511.22%3,17125.66%12,358
Randolph56,89477.60%15,61821.30%8041.10%41,27656.30%73,316
Richmond11,83056.98%8,75442.16%1790.86%3,07614.82%20,763
Robeson27,80658.93%19,02040.31%3620.76%8,78618.62%47,188
Rockingham31,30165.47%15,99233.45%5161.08%15,30932.02%47,809
Rowan49,29767.15%23,11431.49%9971.36%26,18335.66%73,408
Rutherford24,89172.30%9,13526.53%4031.17%15,75645.77%34,429
Sampson17,41160.84%10,96638.32%2410.84%6,44522.52%28,618
Scotland7,47350.58%7,18648.64%1160.78%2871.94%14,775
Stanly25,45875.01%8,12923.95%3521.04%17,32951.06%33,939
Stokes20,14478.37%5,28620.57%2731.06%14,85857.80%25,703
Surry27,53875.16%8,72123.80%3791.04%18,81751.36%36,638
Swain4,16158.87%2,78039.33%1271.80%1,38119.54%7,068
Transylvania11,63657.03%8,44441.38%3241.59%3,19215.65%20,404
Tyrrell1,04457.46%75841.72%150.82%28615.74%1,817
Union80,38261.36%48,72537.19%1,9041.45%31,65724.17%131,011
Vance8,39139.96%12,43159.20%1770.84%-4,040-19.24%20,999
Wake226,19735.80%393,33662.25%12,2971.95%-167,139-26.45%631,830
Warren3,75236.45%6,40062.18%1411.37%-2,648-25.73%10,293
Washington2,78144.82%3,39654.73%280.45%-615-9.91%6,205
Watauga14,45144.85%17,12253.14%6472.01%-2,671-8.29%32,220
Wayne30,70955.29%24,21543.60%6131.11%6,49411.69%55,537
Wilkes27,59277.80%7,51121.18%3631.02%20,08156.62%35,466
Wilson19,58148.07%20,75450.95%4000.98%-1,173-2.88%40,735
Yadkin15,93379.97%3,76318.89%2271.14%12,17061.08%19,923
Yancey7,51666.21%3,68832.49%1481.30%3,82833.72%11,352
Totals2,758,77549.93%2,684,29248.59%81,7371.48%74,4831.34%5,524,804

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won 8 of 13 congressional districts.[183]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
45.3%53.9%G. K. Butterfield
34%64.3%George Holding
Deborah K. Ross
60.9%37.7%Greg Murphy
32.2%66.6%David Price
67.4%31.6%Virginia Foxx
37.2%61.6%Mark Walker
Kathy Manning
58.1%40.7%David Rouzer
52.5%46.1%
53.4%45.5%Dan Bishop
67.7%31.2%Patrick McHenry
55.4%43.3%Madison Cawthorn
28.5%70.1%Alma Adams
67.1%31.8%Ted Budd

Analysis

The rural-urban divide was even more prevalent in North Carolina this election than in past elections. Biden carried eight of North Carolina's ten largest counties (losing only the Charlotte-area suburban counties of Union and Gaston), and overperformed Obama's 2008 margin in the six largest: Wake (Raleigh), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), and Buncombe (Asheville), in which he received 62%, 67%, 61%, 56%, 80%, and 60% of the vote, respectively.[184] Biden furthermore became the first Democrat to carry New Hanover County, home of Wilmington, since 1976. He also flipped Nash County, which had last voted for Obama in 2012, before switching to Trump in 2016, back to the Democratic column. Biden held Trump to a single-digit margin in the Charlotte-area suburban county of Cabarrus, the first time since 1976 that the Republican margin in this county has been less than 10%.

Conversely, Trump held or outperformed his 2016 margin in Robeson, Bladen, Martin, Granville and Gates counties, all counties that had been reliably Democratic in the 20th century and which had voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. Biden thereby became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Robeson County, the largest county in the Lumber River region of the state and the county which had given Jimmy Carter his largest raw vote margin in the state in both 1976 and 1980. Trump picked off neighboring Scotland County, one of only 15 counties he flipped nationally, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and making Biden the first Democrat to win without Scotland since the county's creation in 1899. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the White House without Granville and Gates counties since Grover Cleveland in 1892, the first since Cleveland in 1884 to win without Bladen County, the first since James Buchanan in 1856 to win without Richmond County and the first ever to win without Martin County.

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in North Carolina by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[185] [186]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% oftotal vote
Total vote48.5949.93100
Ideology
Liberals93620
Moderates663239
Conservatives99040
Party
Democrats97334
Republicans49637
Independents504630
Gender
Men455444
Women534656
Race/ethnicity
White336665
Black92723
Latino57425
Asian––2
Other56405
Age
18–24 years old55438
25–29 years old59366
30–39 years old574314
40–49 years old524616
50–64 years old465331
65 and older405924
Sexual orientation
LGBT76225
Not LGBT475295
Education
High school or less386218
Some college education435627
Associate degree504818
Bachelor's degree554422
Postgraduate degree643514
Income
Under $30,000514715
$30,000–49,999544422
$50,000–99,999494936
$100,000–199,999475222
Over $200,00047535
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality94521
Coronavirus841514
Economy168235
Crime and safety118812
Health care663312
Region
East455423
Research Triangle623722
Charlotte Area554418
Piedmont/Central445420
West366217
Area type
Urban692933
Suburban396040
Rural405927
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago178245
Worse than four years ago91720
About the same693034

See also

Notes

General footnotesPartisan clients

Further reading

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  3. Web site: Silver. Nate. 2020-08-12. 2020 Election Forecast. 2021-08-21. FiveThirtyEight. en.
  4. News: Can Roy Cooper Show Democrats How to Win Again?. July 18, 2017. Edward-Isaac. Dovere. Edward-Isaac Dovere. Politico. August 28, 2017.
  5. News: Roy Cooper for president? 'I'm sure I'll get some calls.'. March 29, 2018. Aaron. Paul A.. Moody. Specht. The News & Observer. July 5, 2018.
  6. https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article238050649.html News and Observer
  7. https://www.wral.com/north-carolina-adds-two-to-gop-presidential-ballot/18845697/ WRAL.com
  8. Web site: NC SBE Contest Results . er.ncsbe.gov . North Carolina State Board of Elections . March 11, 2020.
  9. Web site: North Carolina Election Results 2020 . PBS NewsHour . March 11, 2020 . en-us.
  10. Web site: LOCAL ELECTIONS. ABC 11. March 3, 2020. March 4, 2020.
  11. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  12. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2020-10-28.
  13. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2020-11-02.
  14. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  15. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  16. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  17. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  18. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  19. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  20. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  21. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  22. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020 . en. Montanaro . Domenico .
  23. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  24. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. fivethirtyeight.com. August 12, 2020 . en. 2020-10-22.
  25. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/north-carolina/ 270 to Win
  26. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html Real Clear Politics
  27. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/ FiveThirtyEight
  28. https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference SurveyMonkey/Axios
  29. https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-17/ Change Research/CNBC
  30. https://www.swayable.com/polls/2020-11-02-large.html Swayable
  31. https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_north_carolina_state_poll_w6_11_02_2020_.pdf Ipsos/Reuters
  32. https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_nc_11.1.20.pdf Data for Progress
  33. https://competeeverywhere.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Poll-Report-NORTH-CAROLINA-nov-1-2020.pdf Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere
  34. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201101_NC_atlasintel.pdf AtlasIntel
  35. Web site: Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness . November 1, 2020 . November 1, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201101174538/https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/11/North-Carolina-Poll-Oct-31st.pdf . dead .
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