See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey |
| Country: | New Jersey |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| College Voted: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey |
| Previous Year: | 2016 |
| Election Date: | November 3, 2020 |
| Next Election: | 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey |
| Next Year: | 2024 |
| Turnout: | 72% |
| Image1: | Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Joe Biden |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State1: | Delaware |
| Running Mate1: | Kamala Harris |
| Electoral Vote1: | 14 |
| Popular Vote1: | 2,608,400 |
| Percentage1: | |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | Mike Pence |
| Electoral Vote2: | 0 |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,883,313 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Donald Trump |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Joe Biden |
| After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.49% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.[4] [5]
Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election.[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.[7] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[8] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.
The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[9] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county were available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[10]
Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[11] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[12]
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | October 28, 2020 | ||
| Inside Elections[14] | October 16, 2020 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | October 8, 2020 | ||
| Politico[16] | September 8, 2020 | ||
| RCP[17] | August 3, 2020 | ||
| Niskanen[18] | July 26, 2020 | ||
| CNN[19] | August 3, 2020 | ||
| The Economist[20] | September 2, 2020 | ||
| CBS News[21] | September 27, 2020 | ||
| 270towin[22] | August 2, 2020 | ||
| ABC News[23] | July 31, 2020 | ||
| NPR[24] | October 30, 2020 | ||
| NBC News[25] | August 6, 2020 | ||
| 538[26] | September 27, 2020 | ||
| Fox News[27] | November 2, 2020 |
| Donald Trump | Other/ Undecided | Margin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[28] | October 9 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 56.5% | 37.3% | 6.2% | Biden +19.2 | |||
| Real Clear Politics[29] | September 4 – October 13, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 54.7% | 37.3% | 8.0% | Biden +17.4 | |||
| FiveThirtyEight[30] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 58.4% | 37.9% | 3.7% | Biden +20.4 | |||
| Average | 56.5% | 37.5% | 7.8% | Biden +19.0 | |||||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Jo Jorgensen | Howie Hawkins | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,870 (LV) | ± 2% | 38% | 59% | - | - | – | – | ||
| Research Co.[32] | Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 59% | - | - | 1% | 5% | ||
| Swayable[33] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 324 (LV) | ± 7.2% | 40% | 59% | 1% | 0% | – | – | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 6,472 (LV) | – | 37% | 60% | - | - | – | – | ||
| Swayable[34] | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 386 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 38% | 62% | 0% | 0% | – | – | ||
| Rutgers-Eagleton[35] | Oct 19–24, 2020 | 834 (LV) | ± 4% | 37% | 59% | - | - | 1% | 1% | ||
| Stockton College[36] | Oct 7–13, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 36% | 56% | - | - | – | – | ||
| DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[37] | Oct 5–13, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 56% | - | - | 10% | – | ||
| Fairleigh Dickinson University[38] | Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 53% | - | - | 5% | 4% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,952 (LV) | – | 37% | 60% | - | - | – | 3% | ||
| DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[39] | Sep 8–16, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 52% | - | - | 10% | – | ||
| Emerson College[40] | Sep 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 58% | - | - | 2% | – | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 2,309 (LV) | – | 40% | 57% | - | - | – | 3% | ||
| DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[41] | Aug 5–13, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.383% | 33% | 52% | - | - | 15% | – | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,426 (LV) | – | 37% | 61% | - | - | – | 2% | ||
| Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[42] | Jul 7–12, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.383% | 33% | 51% | - | - | 7% | 8% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 37% | 61% | - | - | – | 3% | ||
| Quinnipiac[43] | Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 | 941 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 35% | 54% | - | - | 3% | 8% | ||
| Rutgers-Eagleton[44] | Apr 22 – May 2, 2020 | 689 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 33% | 56% | - | - | 5% | 7% | ||
| Monmouth University[45] | Apr 16–19, 2020 | 635 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 54% | - | - | 2% | 6% | ||
| Fairleigh Dickinson University[46] | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 715 (RV) | – | 35% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | ||||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 73,808 | 52.71% | 64,438 | 46.02% | 1,785 | 1.27% | 9,370 | 6.69% | 140,031 | ||||||||||
| Bergen | 285,967 | 57.44% | 204,417 | 41.06% | 7,454 | 1.50% | 81,550 | 16.38% | 497,838 | ||||||||||
| Burlington | 154,595 | 58.86% | 103,345 | 39.35% | 4,710 | 1.79% | 51,250 | 19.51% | 262,650 | ||||||||||
| Camden | 175,065 | 65.91% | 86,207 | 32.46% | 4,327 | 1.63% | 88,858 | 33.45% | 265,599 | ||||||||||
| Cape May | 23,941 | 41.33% | 33,158 | 57.24% | 834 | 1.43% | -9,217 | -15.91% | 57,933 | ||||||||||
| Cumberland | 32,742 | 52.32% | 28,952 | 46.27% | 881 | 1.41% | 3,790 | 6.05% | 62,575 | ||||||||||
| Essex | 266,820 | 77.07% | 75,475 | 21.80% | 3,892 | 1.13% | 191,345 | 55.27% | 346,187 | ||||||||||
| Gloucester | 86,702 | 49.99% | 83,340 | 48.05% | 3,411 | 1.96% | 3,362 | 1.94% | 173,453 | ||||||||||
| Hudson | 181,452 | 72.45% | 65,698 | 26.23% | 3,308 | 1.32% | 115,754 | 46.22% | 250,458 | ||||||||||
| Hunterdon | 39,457 | 46.60% | 43,153 | 50.96% | 2,063 | 2.44% | -3,696 | -4.36% | 84,673 | ||||||||||
| Mercer | 122,532 | 69.14% | 51,641 | 29.14% | 3,050 | 1.72% | 70,891 | 40.00% | 177,223 | ||||||||||
| Middlesex | 226,250 | 60.22% | 143,467 | 38.19% | 5,975 | 1.59% | 82,783 | 22.03% | 375,692 | ||||||||||
| Monmouth | 181,291 | 47.91% | 191,808 | 50.69% | 5,291 | 1.40% | -10,517 | -2.78% | 378,390 | ||||||||||
| Morris | 153,881 | 51.14% | 141,134 | 46.90% | 5,902 | 1.96% | 12,747 | 4.24% | 300,917 | ||||||||||
| Ocean | 119,456 | 34.85% | 217,740 | 63.53% | 5,550 | 1.62% | -98,274 | -28.68% | 342,746 | ||||||||||
| Passaic | 129,097 | 57.55% | 92,009 | 41.02% | 3,224 | 1.43% | 37,088 | 16.53% | 224,330 | ||||||||||
| Salem | 14,479 | 42.53% | 18,827 | 55.31% | 736 | 2.16% | -4,348 | -12.78% | 34,042 | ||||||||||
| Somerset | 111,173 | 59.49% | 71,996 | 38.52% | 3,722 | 1.99% | 39,177 | 20.97% | 186,891 | ||||||||||
| Sussex | 34,481 | 39.03% | 51,701 | 58.52% | 2,173 | 2.45% | -17,220 | -19.49% | 88,355 | ||||||||||
| Union | 170,310 | 67.01% | 80,038 | 31.49% | 3,794 | 1.50% | 90,272 | 35.52% | 254,142 | ||||||||||
| Warren | 24,901 | 40.78% | 34,769 | 56.95% | 1,387 | 2.27% | -9,868 | -16.17% | 61,057 | ||||||||||
| Totals | 2,608,400 | 57.14% | 1,883,313 | 41.25% | 73,469 | 1.61% | 725,087 | 15.89% | 4,565,182 | ||||||||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won 3, including one that elected a Democrat.[47]
| District | Biden | Trump | Representative | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.1% | 36.6% | Donald Norcross | |||
| 47.9% | 50.8% | Jeff Van Drew | |||
| 49.2% | 49.4% | ||||
| 44.1% | 54.6% | Chris Smith | |||
| 51.9% | 46.7% | Josh Gottheimer | |||
| 57.2% | 41.5% | Frank Pallone Jr. | |||
| 54.2% | 44.3% | ||||
| 71.8% | 27.2% | Albio Sires | |||
| 62.2% | 36.8% | Bill Pascrell | |||
| 84.2% | 15.0% | Donald Payne Jr. | |||
| 52.7% | 46.0% | Mikie Sherrill | |||
| 67.3% | 31.4% | Bonnie Watson Coleman | |||
As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.
Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which has not voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.[49]
Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[49] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[50] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of total vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vote | 57 | 41 | 100 | ||
| Ideology | |||||
| Liberals | 92 | 7 | 34 | ||
| Moderates | 63 | 35 | 35 | ||
| Conservatives | 11 | 88 | 31 | ||
| Party (including leaners) | |||||
| Democrat or lean democrat | 95 | 4 | 53 | ||
| Republican or lean republican | 10 | 89 | 42 | ||
| Independent | 55 | 41 | 5 | ||
| Gender | |||||
| Men | 49 | 49 | 47 | ||
| Women | 64 | 35 | 53 | ||
| Marital status | |||||
| Married | 54 | 44 | 61 | ||
| Never married | 68 | 30 | 23 | ||
| Gender by marital status | |||||
| Married men | 47 | 49 | 29 | ||
| Married women | 58 | 41 | 31 | ||
| Unmarried men | - | - | 15 | ||
| Unmarried women | 68 | 31 | 25 | ||
| Race/ethnicity | |||||
| White | 50 | 49 | 71 | ||
| Black | 86 | 12 | 11 | ||
| Latino | 72 | 27 | 11 | ||
| Asian | 76 | 23 | 3 | ||
| Other | - | - | 3 | ||
| Gender by race/ethnicity | |||||
| White men | 42 | 56 | 33 | ||
| White women | 56 | 44 | 38 | ||
| Black men | - | - | 4 | ||
| Black women | - | - | 7 | ||
| Latino men | - | - | 6 | ||
| Latina women | - | - | 6 | ||
| Other | 66 | 32 | 7 | ||
| Religion | |||||
| Protestant/Other Christian | 56 | 42 | 28 | ||
| Catholic | 47 | 52 | 39 | ||
| Jewish | 70 | 30 | 8 | ||
| Other religion | 67 | 32 | 7 | ||
| None | 73 | 25 | 17 | ||
| White evangelical or born-again Christian | |||||
| Yes | - | - | 9 | ||
| No | 59 | 40 | 91 | ||
| Age | |||||
| 18–24 years old | 59 | 40 | 6 | ||
| 25–29 years old | 66 | 32 | 4 | ||
| 30–39 years old | 66 | 33 | 15 | ||
| 40–49 years old | 57 | 41 | 14 | ||
| 50–64 years old | 54 | 44 | 32 | ||
| 65 and older | 54 | 46 | 28 | ||
| Age by race | |||||
| White 18–29 years old | 57 | 42 | 7 | ||
| White 30–44 years old | 53 | 46 | 14 | ||
| White 45–64 years old | 47 | 52 | 28 | ||
| White 65 and older | 47 | 52 | 22 | ||
| Nonwhite 18–29 years old | 69 | 29 | 4 | ||
| Nonwhite 30–44 years old | 79 | 19 | 8 | ||
| Nonwhite 45–64 years old | 75 | 24 | 11 | ||
| Nonwhite 65 and older | - | - | 6 | ||
| Sexual orientation | |||||
| LGBT | - | - | 6 | ||
| Non-LGBT | 57 | 42 | 94 | ||
| Education | |||||
| High school or less | 54 | 44 | 25 | ||
| Some college education or Associate degree | 51 | 47 | 27 | ||
| College graduate | 63 | 36 | 30 | ||
| Postgraduate degree | 60 | 39 | 18 | ||
| Education by race | |||||
| White college graduates | 57 | 42 | 35 | ||
| White no college degree | 42 | 56 | 35 | ||
| Black college graduates | - | - | 4 | ||
| Black no college degree | - | - | 7 | ||
| Latino college graduates | - | - | 4 | ||
| Latino no college degree | 69 | 29 | 7 | ||
| All others | 66 | 32 | 7 | ||
| Education by race/gender | |||||
| White women with college degrees | 65 | 34 | 17 | ||
| White women without college degrees | 47 | 52 | 20 | ||
| White men with college degrees | 49 | 50 | 18 | ||
| White men without college degrees | 35 | 63 | 15 | ||
| Nonwhite women with college degrees | 84 | 15 | 7 | ||
| Nonwhite women without college degrees | 83 | 15 | 9 | ||
| Nonwhite men with college degrees | 68 | 30 | 6 | ||
| Nonwhite men without college degrees | 66 | 32 | 8 | ||
| Income | |||||
| Under $50,000 | 63 | 36 | 26 | ||
| $50,000–99,999 | 55 | 44 | 37 | ||
| $100,000 or more | 55 | 43 | 37 | ||
| Military service | |||||
| Veterans | - | - | 9 | ||
| Veteran in household | - | - | 14 | ||
| Non-veterans | 63 | 37 | 77 | ||
| Issue regarded as most important | |||||
| Racial inequality | 80 | 20 | 9 | ||
| COVID-19 pandemic | 75 | 24 | 43 | ||
| 20 | 78 | 26 | |||
| Crime and safety | - | - | 4 | ||
| Health care | 79 | 19 | 10 | ||
| Climate change | 91 | 9 | 3 | ||
| Area type | |||||
| Urban | 67 | 31 | 15 | ||
| Suburban | 59 | 40 | 62 | ||
| Small town | 48 | 51 | 15 | ||
| Rural | 44 | 56 | 8 | ||
| Family's financial situation today | |||||
| Getting ahead | - | - | 13 | ||
| Falling behind | 66 | 34 | 17 | ||
| Holding steady | 57 | 43 | 70 | ||
| Abortion should be | |||||
| Legal in all/most cases | 70 | 29 | 71 | ||
| Illegal in all/most cases | 25 | 72 | 28 | ||
| Climate change is a serious problem | |||||
| Yes | 77 | 22 | 75 | ||
| No | 11 | 89 | 25 | ||