2020 United States presidential election in Alabama explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in Alabama
Country:Alabama
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in Alabama
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in Alabama
Next Year:2024
Turnout:63.1% 3.7 pp
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Alabama Republican Party
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:9
Popular Vote1:1,441,170
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Joe Biden
Party2:Alabama Democratic Party
Home State2:Delaware
Running Mate2:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:849,624
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Alabama voters chose nine electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot was the Libertarian nominee, psychology lecturer Jo Jorgensen and her running mate, entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen. Write-in candidates were permitted without registration, and their results were not individually counted.

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a safe red state. Trump won the state with 62.03% of the vote to Biden's 36.57%.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

As one of the Super Tuesday states, little campaigning has been done here, and the focus had been on the highly competitive Republican senatorial primary, which was expected to boost turnout.

Democratic primary

See main article: 2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary. Biden won the Alabama primary with 63.28% of the vote, winning 44 delegates. Bernie Sanders came in second place with 16.54% of the vote, getting 8 delegates. No other candidates won any delegates from Alabama.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[3] November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[4] November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] November 3, 2020
Politico[6] November 3, 2020
RCP[7] November 3, 2020
Niskanen[8] [9] November 3, 2020
CNN[10] November 3, 2020
The Economist[11] November 3, 2020
CBS News[12] November 3, 2020
270towin[13] November 3, 2020
ABC News[14] November 3, 2020
NPR[15] November 3, 2020
NBC News[16] November 3, 2020
538[17] November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summaryAggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[18] September 1 – October 13, 2020October 27, 202038.0%58.0%4.0%Trump +20.0
FiveThirtyEight[19] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202037.8%57.4%4.8%Trump +19.5
Average37.9%57.7%4.4%Trump +19.8

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[20] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,808 (LV)± 3.5%62%36%–––
Swayable[21] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020330 (LV)± 7.9%55%38%7%––
Data for Progress[22] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,045 (LV)± 3%58%38%3%1%0%
Auburn University At Montgomery[23] Oct 23–28, 2020853 (LV)± 4.4%58%39%–3%–
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20203,363 (LV)–61%37%–––
Swayable[24] Oct 23–26, 2020266 (LV)± 7.8%56%37%7%––
Moore Information (R)[25] Oct 11–14, 2020504 (LV)± 4.5%55%38%–––
Auburn University at Montgomery[26] Sep 30 – Oct 3, 20201,072 (RV)± 4.0%57%37%–6%–
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,354 (LV)–59%39%––2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,220 (LV)–65%33%––2%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[27] Aug 17–19, 2020600 (LV)± 4%48%44%0%0%7%
Morning Consult[28] Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020609 (LV)± 4.0%58%36%–2%4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,583 (LV)–63%35%––2%
Auburn University at Montgomery[29] Jul 2–9, 2020567 (RV)± 5.1%55%41%–4%1%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020649 (LV)–63%35%––2%
FM3 Research/Doug Jones[30] May 14–18, 2020601 (LV)± 4%53%39%–––
Mason-Dixon[31] Feb 4–6, 2020625 (RV)± 4%58%38%––4%
WPA Intelligence[32] Jan 7–9, 2020500 (LV)–59%38%––3%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		Undecided
Mason-DixonFeb 4–6, 2020625 (RV)± 4%60%37%3%
WPA IntelligenceJan 7–9, 2020500 (LV)–59%37%4%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

With generic opponent

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $4,412,645.01,[34] Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $2,412,420.93,[35] and Jo Jorgensen raised $8,172.29[36] from Alabama-based contributors.

Candidate ballot access

In addition, write-in candidates were allowed without registration, and their votes were not counted individually.[37] [38]

Electoral slates

The voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Alabama, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[39] [40]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 9 pledged electors from Alabama cast their votes for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021, per the Electoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[41] [42] [43]

Results

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Autauga19,83871.44%7,50327.02%4291.54%12,33544.42%27,770
Baldwin83,54476.17%24,57822.41%1,5571.42%68,96653.76%109,679
Barbour5,62253.45%4,81645.79%800.76%8067.66%10,518
Bibb7,52578.43%1,98620.70%840.87%5,53957.73%9,595
Blount24,71189.57%2,6409.57%2370.86%22,07180.00%27,588
Bullock1,14624.84%3,44674.70%210.46%-2,300-49.66%4,613
Butler5,45857.53%3,96541.79%650.68%1,49315.74%9,488
Calhoun35,10168.85%15,21629.85%6661.30%19,88539.00%50,983
Chambers8,75357.27%6,36541.64%1661.09%2,38815.63%15,284
Cherokee10,58386.03%1,62413.20%940.77%8,95972.83%12,301
Chilton16,08583.30%3,07315.91%1520.79%13,01267.39%19,310
Choctaw4,29657.56%3,12741.89%410.55%1,16915.67%7,464
Clarke7,32455.76%5,75543.81%560.43%1,56911.95%13,135
Clay5,60180.82%1,26718.28%620.90%4,33462.54%6,930
Cleburne6,48489.72%6759.34%680.94%5,80980.38%7,227
Coffee16,89975.87%5,07622.79%3001.34%11,82353.08%22,275
Colbert19,20368.86%8,34329.92%3401.22%10,86038.94%27,886
Conecuh3,44253.44%2,96646.05%330.51%4767.39%6,441
Coosa3,63166.27%1,79632.78%520.95%1,83533.49%5,479
Covington14,58683.68%2,72115.61%1230.71%11,86568.07%17,430
Crenshaw4,86473.51%1,70025.69%530.80%3,16447.82%6,617
Cullman36,88088.12%4,47810.70%4931.18%32,40277.42%41,851
Dale14,30372.46%5,17026.19%2651.35%9,13346.27%19,738
Dallas5,52430.92%12,23068.46%1100.62%-6,706-37.54%17,864
DeKalb24,76784.37%4,28114.58%3081.05%20,48669.79%29,356
Elmore30,16473.52%10,36725.27%4991.21%19,79748.25%41,030
Escambia10,86968.32%4,91830.91%1230.77%5,95137.41%15,910
Etowah35,52874.44%11,56724.24%6331.32%23,96150.20%47,728
Fayette7,30083.28%1,39515.91%710.81%5,90567.37%8,766
Franklin10,37682.49%2,08616.58%1160.93%8,29065.91%12,578
Geneva10,84886.47%1,59512.71%1020.82%9,25373.76%12,545
Greene87518.32%3,88481.34%160.34%-3,009-63.02%4,775
Hale3,19240.41%4,66359.03%450.56%-1,471-18.62%7,900
Henry6,60771.06%2,60628.03%850.91%4,00143.03%9,298
Houston32,61870.64%12,91727.98%6381.38%19,70142.66%46,173
Jackson19,67083.22%3,71715.73%2491.05%15,95367.49%23,636
Jefferson138,84342.61%181,68855.76%5,3171.63%-42,845-13.15%325,848
Lamar6,17485.83%97813.60%410.57%5,19672.23%7,193
Lauderdale31,72171.54%11,91526.87%7031.59%19,80644.67%44,339
Lawrence12,32276.86%3,56222.22%1470.92%8,76054.64%16,031
Lee42,22159.09%27,86038.99%1,3681.92%14,36120.10%71,449
Limestone34,64070.36%13,67227.77%9231.87%20,96842.59%49,235
Lowndes1,83626.86%4,97272.74%270.40%-3,136-45.88%6,835
Macon1,54117.67%7,10881.49%740.84%-5,567-63.82%8,723
Madison102,78052.77%87,28644.82%4,7012.41%15,4947.95%194,767
Marengo5,34349.02%5,48850.35%690.63%-145-1.33%10,900
Marion12,20588.40%1,46310.60%1391.00%10,74277.80%13,807
Marshall33,19183.70%5,94314.99%5211.31%27,24868.71%39,655
Mobile101,24355.27%79,47443.39%2,4471.34%21,76911.88%183,164
Monroe6,14757.62%4,45541.76%660.62%1,69215.86%10,668
Montgomery33,31133.60%64,52965.09%1,2991.31%-31,218-31.49%99,139
Morgan39,66473.83%13,23424.63%8241.54%26,43049.20%53,722
Perry1,33925.60%3,86073.80%310.60%-2,521-48.20%5,230
Pickens5,59457.86%4,02241.60%520.54%1,57216.26%9,668
Pike8,04258.10%5,63640.72%1631.18%2,40617.38%13,841
Randolph8,55978.98%2,20320.33%750.69%6,35658.65%10,837
Russell9,86446.25%11,22852.64%2371.11%-1,564-6.39%21,329
Shelby79,70069.33%33,26828.94%1,9821.73%46,43240.39%114,950
St. Clair36,16681.38%7,74417.43%5311.19%28,42263.95%44,441
Sumter1,59825.40%4,64873.88%450.72%-3,050-48.48%6,291
Talladega22,23562.35%13,13836.84%2900.81%9,09725.51%35,663
Tallapoosa14,96371.28%5,85927.91%1690.81%9,10443.37%20,991
Tuscaloosa51,11756.69%37,76541.88%1,2901.43%13,35214.81%90,172
Walker26,00283.42%4,83415.51%3341.07%21,16867.91%31,170
Washington6,56473.95%2,25825.44%540.61%4,30648.51%8,876
Wilcox1,83331.05%4,04868.58%220.37%-2,215-37.53%5,903
Winston10,19590.35%9748.63%1151.02%9,22181.72%11,284
Totals1,441,17062.03%849,62436.57%32,4881.40%591,54625.46%2,323,282

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[44] Trump's 81.2% in Alabama's 4th district was his best showing of any congressional district in the nation.

DistrictTrumpBidenElected
representative
63.7%35.3%Jerry Carl
63.9%35.1%Barry Moore
65.3%33.7%Mike Rogers
81.2%17.8%Robert Aderholt
62.7%35.7%Mo Brooks
67.0%31.8%Gary Palmer
28.5%70.8%Terri Sewell

Analysis

A socially conservative Bible Belt state, Alabama has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election starting in 1980, and has done so by double-digit margins in all of them except 1980, 1992, and 1996. Most analysts expected the state to be uncompetitive.

Biden only won Jefferson County and 12 counties in the Black Belt; Trump won all other counties.

This election coincided with the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Alabama, where incumbent Democrat Doug Jones – who was elected by a 21,924 vote margin in a 2017 special election – ran for a full six-year term but was defeated by Republican football coach Tommy Tuberville. Despite losing, Jones outperformed Biden by 5.1 percentage points.

Exit polls

Edison

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the Edison Research for the National Election Pool (encompassing ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News) interviewing 1,201 Alabama voters, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[45]

2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Edison exit polling)[46]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% oftotal vote
Total vote36.5762.0399
Ideology
Liberals91814
Moderates544436
Conservatives89250
Party
Democrats95526
Republicans29753
Independents494421
Gender
Men356345
Women396155
Race/ethnicity
White217774
Black891122
Hispanic or Latino––3
Asian––0
Other––1
Age
18–29 years old544415
30–44 years old405723
45–64 years old376237
65 and older237725
Sexual orientation
LGBT––5
Heterosexual326695
Education
Never attended college267320
Some college education406025
Associate degree297017
Bachelor's degree405723
Postgraduate degree524714
Income
Less than $50,000356537
$50,000 to $99,999386031
$100,000 or more336732
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality93518
Coronavirus––7
Economy89149
Crime and safety––15
Health care––7
Region
North297024
North Central267226
Birmingham/South Central564228
South336622
Area type
Urban583925
Suburban277256
Rural376120
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago178260
Worse than four years ago673311
About the same643427

Associated Press

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 1,905 likely voters in Alabama, adjusted to match the actual vote count.

2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[47]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrumpJorgensen% oftotal vote
Total vote36.5762.031.08100
Ideology
Liberals8613120
Moderates5542228
Conservatives792151
Party
Democrats or lean Democrat963133
Republicans or lean Republican494163
Independents544044
Type of vote
Election Day3167183
Mail6237117
Vote in 2016
Hillary Clinton972127
Donald Trump396153
Someone else5430124
Did not vote4157116
Gender
Men3266146
Women4059153
Race/ethnicity
White2078175
Black918122
Hispanic or Latino–––1
Asian–––<1
American Indian, Native American, or Alaska Native–––<1
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander–––<1
Other–––1
Age
18–24 years old504536
25–29 years old395916
30–39 years old3760214
40–49 years old4455115
50–64 years old3564130
65 and older3069<129
Religion
Protestant2375140
Catholic405917
Mormon–––1
Other Christian3563126
Jewish–––1
Muslim–––<1
Something else5643111
None6038213
White evangelical or white-born again Christian
Yes1288<153
No5246147
Marital status
Married3168152
Not married4852148
Sexual orientation
LGBT–––9
Heterosexual3564191
Education
High school or less3366<133
Some college education or associate degree3663136
College graduate3958320
Postgraduate degree4453111
Total household income (2019)
Under $25,0004851121
$25,000–$49,9993663127
$50,000–$74,9993366<118
$75,000–$99,9993068214
Over $100,0003266119
Union households
Yes–––8
No3563292
Veteran households
Yes3069<132
No3662168
Issue regarded as most important
Economy and jobs989232
Healthcare5446<19
Immigration–––5
Abortion–––3
Law enforcement–––5
Climate change–––1
Foreign policy–––1
COVID-19 pandemic5840133
Racism6829110
Area type
Urban5940<113
Suburban4255232
Small town3464126
Rural2377<130

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. January 3, 2019. National Archives and Records Administration.
  3. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  4. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  5. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  6. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  7. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  8. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  9. Web site: September 15, 2020. Niskanen Center electoral college map. December 19, 2020. 270toWin.
  10. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  11. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  12. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  13. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  14. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  15. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020 . en. Montanaro . Domenico .
  16. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  17. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  18. Web site: Alabama 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin. 270toWin.com.
  19. Web site: Alabama : President: general election Polls. Ryan. Best. Aaron. Bycoffe. Ritchie. King. Dhrumil. Mehta. Anna. Wiederkehr. June 28, 2018. FiveThirtyEight.
  20. Web site: Candidate preference. www.tableau.com.
  21. Web site: Swayable. https://web.archive.org/web/20201113073344/https://www.swayable.com/polls/2020-11-02-large.html. dead. November 13, 2020.
  22. Web site: Data for Progress.
  23. Web site: Auburn University At Montgomery.
  24. Web site: Swayable. www.swayable.com.
  25. Web site: Tuberville campaign tells potential donors he's fallen behind Jones. Mike Cason |. mcason@al.com. October 19, 2020. al.
  26. Web site: AUM Poll: Tommy Tuberville leads Doug Jones by 12 points in closing weeks of Alabama Senate race - AUM. https://web.archive.org/web/20201109065422/https://www.aum.edu/aum-poll-tommy-tuberville-leads-doug-jones-by-12-points-in-closing-weeks-of-alabama-senate-race/. dead. November 9, 2020.
  27. Web site: Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance.
  28. Web site: Republicans Lead Senate Races in Alabama, Kentucky and Texas, With South Carolina Tied. Morning Consult Pro.
  29. Web site: Auburn University at Montgomery. https://web.archive.org/web/20200713071148/http://www.aum.edu/sites/default/files/AUM_Topline_Results_July2020_Final.pdf. dead. July 13, 2020.
  30. Web site: x.com.
  31. Web site: Trump leads Democratic contenders in Alabama poll. Todd. Stacy. February 11, 2020. Alabama Daily News.
  32. Web site: Poll: Doug Jones reelection chances take hit if he votes to remove Trump. Jeff. Poor. January 28, 2020.
  33. Web site: JMC Analytics.
  34. Web site: TRUMP, DONALD J. - Candidate overview. December 9, 2020. Federal Election Commission. en.
  35. Web site: BIDEN, JOSEPH R JR - Candidate overview. December 9, 2020. Federal Election Commission. en.
  36. Web site: JORGENSEN, JO - Candidate overview. December 9, 2020. Federal Election Commission. en.
  37. Web site: 2020 November General Election Sample Ballot. live. December 4, 2020. Alabama Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20200920154208/https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/general-election-sample-ballots . September 20, 2020 .
  38. Web site: Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Alabama. December 4, 2020. Ballotpedia. en.
  39. Web site: July 7, 2020. Faithless Elector State Laws. December 9, 2020. FairVote.
  40. Web site: Alabama Code Title 17. Elections § 17-14-31. December 9, 2020. FindLaw. en-US.
  41. Web site: Certification of Dem Electors. December 8, 2020. alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State.
  42. Web site: GOP Final Certification 8-27-2020. December 8, 2020. alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State.
  43. Web site: Elector Statements for Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy Spike Cohen. December 8, 2020. alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State.
  44. Web site: December 18, 2020 . Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012 . m.dailykos.com/.
  45. News: Alabama Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. November 3, 2020 . 2021-03-26. 0362-4331.
  46. Web site: Alabama 2020 President exit polls.. live. 2021-03-26. CNN. en. https://web.archive.org/web/20201203081256/https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/alabama . December 3, 2020 .
  47. News: Alabama Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. November 3, 2020 . 2021-03-31. 0362-4331.

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