2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee explained

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee should not be confused with 2020 Tennessee Senate election.

Election Name:2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Country:Tennessee
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2026 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Next Year:2026
Image1:File:Sen. Bill Hagerty official Senate portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Bill Hagerty
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,840,926
Percentage1:62.20%
Nominee2:Marquita Bradshaw
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,040,691
Percentage2:35.16%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Lamar Alexander
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Bill Hagerty
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:69.30% [1] 33.33 pp

The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate. The 2020 U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives were also held, as well as the State Senate and State House elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for re-election on December 17, 2018.[2] The former United States Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin defeating his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw.

In the primary, President Donald Trump endorsed Hagerty. He ended up winning the Republican nomination, defeating orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi and 13 others in the Republican primary. In the Democratic primary, environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw from Memphis defeated Robin Kimbrough Hayes, as well as 3 other candidates. Nine independent candidates also appeared on the general election ballot.

Bill Hagerty outperformed Donald Trump by almost 4% during the general election. This was because he did better in suburban, exurban, and urban areas across Tennessee.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Disqualified from the primary ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
George FlinnMark GreenBill HagertyBill HaslamManny SethiOtherUndecided
JMC Analytics and PollingJuly 18–19, 2020600 (LV)±  4.0%5%36%32%9%20%
The Trafalgar GroupJuly 6–8, 20201,062 (LV)±  2.92%4%42%39%2%13%
Victory PhonesJune 30 – July 1, 2020800 (LV)±  3.46%6%33%31%30%
The Tarrance GroupJune 28–30, 2020651 (LV)±  4.0%5%46%29%2%18%
Victory PhonesJune 2, 202027%11%
July 11, 2019Green and Haslam announce they will not run
Triton/Tennessee StarApril 13–16, 20191,003 (LV)± 3.1%30%39%~30%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Disqualified from the primary ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Independents

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[22] October 29, 2020
align=left Inside Elections[23] October 28, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[25] November 30, 2020
Politico[26] November 2, 2020
RCP[27] October 23, 2020
DDHQ[28] November 3, 2020
538November 2, 2020
Economist[29] November 2, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Hagerty (R)
Marquita
Bradshaw (D)
OtherUndecided
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020431 (LV)± 6.2%61%39%
CygnalOctober 20–22, 2020610 (LV)± 3.97%56%36%1%7%
with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler
with Manny Sethi and James Mackler
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
CygnalOctober 20–22, 2020610 (LV)± 3.97%58%38%4%
East Tennessee State University April 22 – May 1, 2020536 (LV)43%26%31%

Results

By county

County[30] Bill Hagerty
Republican
Marquita Bradshaw
Democratic
Other votes Total
votes
%%%
Anderson 66.54%22,98831.32%10,8202.14%74034,548
Bedford 76.68%13,92020.98%3,8082.34%42518,153
Benton 78.22%5,46219.16%1,3382.62%1836,983
Bledsoe 81.49%4,46016.41%8982.10%1155,473
Blount 73.27%47,39124.66%15,9502.07%1,33864,679
Bradley 77.62%34,26219.74%8,7162.64%1,16544,143
Campbell 82.53%11,61015.45%2,1732.02%28414,067
Cannon 79.61%4,90417.94%1,1052.45%1516,160
Carroll 77.78%8,89919.98%2,2862.24%25611,441
Carter 80.02%18,59317.76%4,1272.22%51423,234
Cheatham 72.19%14,09425.40%4,9592.41%47019,523
Chester 80.22%5,95117.59%1,3052.19%1627,418
Claiborne 82.26%10,11615.95%1,9621.79%22012,298
Clay 78.29%2,52519.10%6162.61%843,225
Cocke 81.13%11,28416.01%2,2272.86%39713,908
Coffee 74.38%17,60722.03%5,2153.59%84923,671
Crockett 77.42%4,45520.68%1,1901.90%1095,754
Cumberland 78.97%24,41219.11%5,9081.92%59330,913
Davidson 35.20%106,66461.04%184,9723.76%11,402303,038
Decatur 80.87%4,07516.21%8172.92%1475,039
DeKalb 78.01%6,16219.29%1,5242.70%2137,899
Dickson 72.88%17,21423.52%5,5563.60%85123,621
Dyer 78.34%11,23719.06%2,7342.60%37214,343
Fayette 70.67%15,41426.67%5,8182.66%57921,811
Fentress 85.37%7,06612.78%1,0561.85%1558,277
Franklin 74.02%13,49024.06%4,3841.92%35018,224
Gibson 73.53%15,58322.97%4,8673.50%74221,192
Giles 74.70%9,31322.68%2,8282.62%32612,467
Grainger 84.90%8,13113.27%1,2711.83%1759,577
Greene 79.82%21,90417.51%4,8042.67%73427,442
Grundy 81.06%4,37316.46%8882.48%1345,395
Hamblen 77.30%18,18320.46%4,8132.24%52823,524
Hamilton 56.29%95,10541.79%70,6081.92%3,252168,965
Hancock 86.39%2,15912.04%3011.57%392,499
Hardeman 58.68%5,37737.67%3,4523.65%3349,163
Hardin 82.95%9,22114.38%1,5992.67%29611,116
Hawkins 82.06%19,12315.66%3,6492.28%53323,305
Haywood 46.14%3,29751.74%3,6972.12%1527,146
Henderson 82.73%9,58515.48%1,7931.79%20811,586
Henry 75.40%10,59521.16%2,9733.44%48414,052
Hickman 76.90%7,28420.31%1,9242.79%2649,472
Houston 72.85%2,58622.82%8104.33%1543,550
Humphreys 73.39%5,75222.77%1,7853.84%3017,838
Jackson 77.47%3,83719.95%9882.58%1284,953
Jefferson 79.80%18,02417.87%4,0352.33%52722,586
Johnson 82.41%6,05815.17%1,1152.42%1787,351
Knox 59.27%128,66239.09%84,8471.64%3,570217,079
Lake 70.52%1,36125.54%4933.94%761,930
Lauderdale 65.44%5,55331.50%2,6733.06%2608,486
Lawrence 81.69%14,27015.85%2,7682.46%43117,469
Lewis 79.27%4,23418.52%9892.21%1185,341
Lincoln 79.55%12,01917.50%2,6442.95%44615,109
Loudon 76.40%21,89021.15%6,0612.45%70228,653
Macon 85.15%7,52212.50%1,1042.35%2088,834
Madison 57.70%24,06540.24%16,7812.06%86041,706
Marion 74.54%9,51723.15%2,9562.31%29512,768
Marshall 75.17%10,65022.26%3,1542.57%36414,168
Maury 68.49%31,51629.46%13,5572.05%94546,018
McMinn 80.28%17,77717.65%3,9082.07%45822,143
McNairy 80.77%8,83916.12%1,7643.11%34110,944
Meigs 80.62%4,19816.94%8822.44%1275,207
Monroe 80.86%16,33117.05%3,4442.09%42220,197
Montgomery 56.54%41,34239.21%28,6744.25%3,10573,121
Moore 82.04%2,82715.18%5232.78%963,446
Morgan 84.51%6,71513.67%1,0861.82%1457,946
Obion 79.58%10,23617.47%2,2472.95%38012,863
Overton 79.35%7,35118.39%1,7042.26%2099,264
Perry 81.68%2,61716.14%5172.18%703,204
Pickett 81.15%2,26417.03%4751.82%512,790
Polk 81.25%6,62017.19%1,4011.56%1278,148
Putnam 71.77%23,03125.76%8,2682.47%79232,091
Rhea 81.62%10,62116.14%2,1002.24%29113,012
Roane 75.21%19,03821.56%5,4583.23%81725,313
Robertson 73.94%23,87723.32%7,5302.74%88632,293
Rutherford 58.11%80,61038.77%53,7823.12%4,323138,715
Scott 87.49%7,30710.09%8432.42%2028,352
Sequatchie 80.95%5,59816.67%1,1532.38%1646,915
Sevier 78.52%33,53118.58%7,9342.90%1,23842,703
Shelby 36.12%135,04361.05%228,2802.83%10,600373,923
Smith 78.77%6,61017.79%1,4933.44%2888,391
Stewart 79.07%4,69718.10%1,0752.83%1685,940
Sullivan 76.46%55,50621.64%15,7101.90%1,37572,591
Sumner 70.70%63,03126.78%23,8782.52%2,24289,151
Tipton 75.07%19,55422.21%5,7842.72%70926,047
Trousdale 75.28%2,74122.25%8102.47%903,641
Unicoi 79.32%6,26718.34%1,4492.34%1857,901
Union 83.67%6,36514.29%1,0872.04%1557,606
Van Buren 79.93%2,15517.36%4682.71%732,696
Warren 73.68%10,99822.85%3,4103.47%51814,926
Washington 68.20%39,51629.37%17,0212.43%1,40857,945
Wayne 86.75%5,35110.91%6732.34%1446,168
Weakley 75.90%10,13120.12%2,6863.98%53113,348
White 80.96%9,47517.02%1,9922.02%23711,704
Williamson 66.21%91,15531.55%43,4322.24%3,080137,667
Wilson 69.44%50,59727.53%20,0593.03%2,20972,865
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Hagerty won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[31]

DistrictHagertyBradshawRepresentative
77%21%Phil Roe
66%32%
67%31%Chuck Fleischmann
69%29%Scott DesJarlais
39%57%Jim Cooper
74%24%
69%28%
68%30%David Kustoff
21%76%Steve Cohen

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: November 3, 2020 . Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2020 . Tennessee Secretary of State . February 28, 2023 .
  2. Burgess Everett. burgessev. 1074714366191300608. December 17, 2018. HOLY COW Lamar Alexander: "I will not be a candidate for re-election to the United States Senate in 2020". December 17, 2018.
  3. News: Allison. Natalie. December 17, 2018. Who will succeed Lamar Alexander as Tennessee's next U.S. Senator?. The Tennessean. en. December 17, 2018. October 14, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211014154911/https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/17/tennessee-us-senator-lamar-alexander-replace-senate-race-candidates/2336318002/. live.
  4. News: Sher. Andy. Trump announces, endorses Bill Hagerty bid for Tennessee U.S. Senate seat. Chattanooga Times Free Press. July 12, 2019. July 12, 2019. July 12, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190712213147/https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2019/jul/12/trump-announces-endorses-bill-hagerty-bid-senate/498683/. live.
  5. Web site: Early voting begins today . Oak Ridger . August 1, 2020 . July 17, 2020 . August 5, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200805160632/https://www.oakridger.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/17/early-voting-begins-today/41724829/ . live .
  6. Web site: Byron Bush for Tennessee Senate. March 27, 2020. March 27, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200327204334/https://www.bushforsenate.com/. live.
  7. Web site: CopeTN2020 – TN Candidate for US Senate 2020. March 27, 2020. March 27, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200327204334/https://copetn2020.com/. live.
  8. News: State Republicans Dump Basil Marceaux, Others . May 15, 2020 . April 16, 2020 . The Chattanoogan . April 28, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200428141445/https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/4/16/407619/State-Republicans-Dump-Basil-Marceaux.aspx . live .
  9. News: See who's running for statewide, federal and legislative offices in Tennessee in 2020 . May 15, 2020 . Joel . Ebert . The Tennessean . April 10, 2020 . October 14, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211014154910/https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/02/tennessee-candidates-statewide-legislative-offices-2020/5114773002/ . live .
  10. Web site: May 15, 2020 . Tennessee Senate 2020 Race . Open Secrets . July 11, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210711012234/https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2020&id=TNS2 . live .
  11. Web site: Aaron Pettigrew. Ballotpedia. en. January 5, 2020. June 9, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190609224310/https://ballotpedia.org/Aaron_Pettigrew. live.
  12. News: Nashville trauma surgeon Manny Sethi launches 2020 U.S. Senate bid. The Tennessean. June 3, 2019. October 14, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211014154911/https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/03/manny-sethi-2020-senate-bid-tennessee-republican-lamar-alexander/1292498001/. live.
  13. News: Ebert . Joel . With Bill Haslam opting against 2020 US Senate run, other potential candidates weigh decisions . July 11, 2019 . The Tennessean . en . July 12, 2019 . October 14, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211014154912/https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/11/bill-haslam-opting-against-2020-us-senate-run-other-potential-republican-candidates-weigh-options/1702626001/ . live .
  14. News: Ebert. Joel. Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander will not seek re-election in 2020. Daily Local News. December 17, 2018. December 17, 2018. December 18, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181218011037/https://www.dailylocal.com/news/state/tennessee-sen-lamar-alexander-will-not-seek-re-election-in/article_c62531f3-3ab8-5f55-a7ea-7a9d6a09acc7.html. live.
  15. News: Pathé. Simone. Who Might Run for Alexander's Tennessee Senate Seat in 2020?. Roll Call. December 17, 2018. December 17, 2018. December 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181217235812/http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/who-could-run-for-tennessee-senate-in-2020. live.
  16. Web site: Bradshaw overcomes odds to win Tenn. Senate nomination . Sainz, Adrian . Mattise, Jonathan . . Associated Press . The progressive's win over a field of Democrats, including establishment choice James Mackler, has drawn national attention in a Senate race where the focus had been on a contentious GOP primary. Bradshaw is the first Black woman nominated for statewide office by either major political party in Tennessee, according to the state Democratic Party. . August 7, 2020 . August 26, 2020 . January 12, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210112041848/https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/bradshaw-overcomes-odds-win-tenn-senate-nomination-72244140 . live .
  17. News: Another Democrat Joins U.S. Senate Race . Elliott . Stephen . Nashville Scene . Bradshaw's family members are no strangers to politics (though this is her first run for office) — her uncle is state Rep. John DeBerry (D-Memphis), and her mother Doris has been fighting for environmental justice in Memphis for decades. Marquita Bradshaw was by her parents' side for much of the fight against a government-owned Superfund site in Memphis. . October 3, 2019 . August 26, 2020 . September 13, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200913091754/https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/pith-in-the-wind/article/21090508/another-democrat-joins-us-senate-race . live .
  18. News: Elliott. Stephen. Democrats 'disappointed but not discouraged' as they look to 2020. Nashville Post. December 5, 2018. December 6, 2018. December 5, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181205171055/https://www.nashvillepost.com/politics/elections/article/21035264/democrats-disappointed-but-not-discouraged-as-they-look-to-2020. live.
  19. Web site: Diana Onyejiaka. 2021-03-21. Ballotpedia. en. November 1, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201101011348/https://ballotpedia.org/Diana_Onyejiaka. live.
  20. Web site: Mackler . James . Humbled and honored to have Gov. @PhilBredesen on the team to win this #TNSen race! . Twitter . June 16, 2019 . November 8, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201108000744/https://twitter.com/James_Mackler/status/1129843998997323777 . live .
  21. Web site: State of Tennessee – August 6, 2020 Democratic Primary. Tennessee Secretary of State. September 12, 2020. September 26, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200926183200/https://sos-tn-gov-files.tnsosfiles.com/Aug%202020%20Democratic%20Primary%20County%20Totals.pdf. live.
  22. Web site: October 29, 2020 . 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020 . . March 14, 2021 . May 30, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210530142700/https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/230641 . live .
  23. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 11, 2021 . March 13, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210313104907/http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2020-senate-ratings-october-28-2020 . live .
  24. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2021 . March 1, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210301134804/https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/ . live .
  25. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings . Daily Kos Elections . March 13, 2021 .
  26. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019. Politico. December 2, 2019. June 20, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200620192157/https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/senate/. live.
  27. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2020. October 23, 2020. RCP. March 14, 2021. March 16, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210316185113/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map.html. live.
  28. Web site: September 2, 2020 . 2020 Senate Elections Model . September 2, 2020 . . January 6, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210106102038/https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate . live .
  29. Web site: November 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . March 13, 2021 . . January 7, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210107140929/https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/senate . live .
  30. Web site: 2020-11-03 . Tennessee 2020 Senate Results by County . 2023-04-15 . Tennessee Secretary of State . en.
  31. Web site: DRA 2020 . 2024-08-20 . Daves Redistricting.