2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico explained

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections.

2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico should not be confused with 2020 New Mexico State Senate election.

Election Name:2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2026 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Next Year:2026
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Image1:Ben Ray Lujan, 117th Congress portrait 2.jpg
Nominee1:Ben Ray Luján
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:474,483
Percentage1:51.73%
Nominee2:Mark Ronchetti
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:418,483
Percentage2:45.62%
Map Size:215px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Tom Udall
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Ben Ray Luján
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire.[1] [2] [3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election in the state against President Donald Trump by 10.8%.Ben Ray Luján was the first Hispanic to have won a Senate seat in New Mexico since Joseph Montoya in 1970.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Declined

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[38] October 29, 2020
align=left Inside Elections[39] October 28, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[41] October 30, 2020
Politico[42] November 2, 2020
RCP[43] October 23, 2020
DDHQ[44] November 3, 2020
538[45] November 2, 2020
Economist[46] November 2, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ben Ray
Luján (D)		Mark
Ronchetti (R)		Bob
Walsh (L)		Undecided
Research & Polling Inc.October 23–29, 20201,180 (LV)± 2.9%52%44%3%1%
GBAO Strategies (D)October 14–17, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%52%41%5%–
54%43%––
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 1, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%51%41%3%6%
Research & Polling Inc.August 26 – September 2, 20201,123 (LV)±  2.9%49%40%4%8%
Public Policy PollingJune 12–13, 2020740 (V)± 3.6%48%34%–18%
Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Results

CountyBen Ray Luján
Democratic		Mark Ronchetti
Republican		Bob Walsh
Libertarian		MarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Bernalillo178,88056.69128,04240.588,6062.7350,83816.11315,528
Catron54323.551,69473.46692.99-1,151-49.912,306
Chaves6,14327.6215,62470.254752.14-9,481-42.6322,242
Cibola4,47850.484,18747.202052.312913.288,870
Colfax2,54942.353,31455.061562.59-765-12.716,019
Curry4,26128.5710,09467.675613.76-5,833-39.1014,916
De Baca22825.2565372.31222.44-425-47.06903
Doña Ana46,92057.5731,69738.892,8893.5415,22318.6881,506
Eddy5,30123.2117,07974.774632.03-11,778-51.5622,843
Grant7,37751.456,61046.103522.457675.3514,339
Guadalupe1,24056.9689841.25391.7934215.712,177
Harding15731.2134167.7950.99-184-36.58503
Hidalgo79841.351,08556.22472.43-287-14.871,930
Lea4,01819.6215,95077.905082.48-11,932-58.2720,476
Lincoln2,91528.457,10269.312302.24-4,187-40.8610,247
Los Alamos7,01857.064,86639.564153.372,15217.5012,299
Luna3,42643.004,31954.212222.79-893-11.217,967
McKinley17,08165.218,30431.708073.088,77733.5126,192
Mora1,67462.3295735.63552.0571726.692,686
Otero7,98734.2414,62762.707153.06-6,640-28.4623,329
Quay1,21431.552,54366.09912.36-1,329-34.543,848
Rio Arriba10,61464.045,68934.322711.634,92529.7216,574
Roosevelt1,77427.164,50568.982523.86-2,731-41.826,531
Sandoval37,78249.5236,66648.061,8412.411,1161.4676,289
San Juan17,25033.1833,14563.761,5883.05-15,895-30.5851,983
San Miguel7,81767.853,54530.771591.384,27237.0811,521
Santa Fe60,43273.8719,81424.221,5631.9140,61849.6581,809
Sierra2,12735.933,65361.711402.36-1,526-25.785,920
Socorro3,52949.543,38447.512102.951452.037,123
Taos12,89075.923,74922.083402.009,14153.8416,979
Torrance2,17929.984,90467.481842.53-2,725-37.507,267
Union39922.501,32374.62512.88-924-52.121,773
Valencia13,34441.5318,05356.197302.27-4,709-14.6632,127
Totals474,48351.73418,48345.6224,2712.6556,0006.11917,237
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Ray Luján won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[47]

DistrictRay LujánRonchettiRepresentative
56%41%Deb Haaland
42%55%Xochitl Torres Small
Yvette Herrell
56%42%Ben Ray Luján
Teresa Leger Fernandez

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  • Voter samples

    • External links

    Official campaign websites

    Notes and References

    1. News: Wagner. John. Udall announces he won't seek another term representing New Mexico. The Washington Post. March 25, 2019. March 25, 2019.
    2. News: Senator Tom Udall Will Retire, Ending a Dynasty in the West. Burns. Alexander. March 25, 2019. The New York Times. March 25, 2019. en-US. 0362-4331.
    3. Web site: A message to New Mexico from Tom. Udall. Tom. March 25, 2019. Medium. March 25, 2019.
    4. News: Ben Ray Luján to announce New Mexico Senate run Monday. Gonzales. Nathan L.. March 28, 2019. March 28, 2019. Gonzales. Nathan L.. en. Roll Call.
    5. News: Terrell . Steve . Maggie Toulouse Oliver set to enter race for U.S. Senate . April 19, 2019 . . April 19, 2019.
    6. Web site: Turner . Scott . Luján has new challenger for Senate . Albuquerque Journal . January 3, 2020 . December 26, 2019.
    7. News: Reichbach. Matthew. Toulouse Oliver ends Senate run. NM Political Report. October 29, 2019. October 29, 2019.
    8. News: Monahan. Joe. Longest-Serving State Senator Now 94 And Mulling Over Re-election Bid, Plus: An Unusual GOP Northern Congress Candidate. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. April 24, 2019. April 24, 2019.
    9. KOB 4. KOB4. 1111291993261555714 . BREAKING: @NewMexicoOAG Hector Balderas says he will NOT run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tom Udall. #NewMexico #nmpol. March 28, 2019. March 28, 2019.
    10. News: Monahan. Joe. March Madness Comes To La Politica; Udall Heads For Exits And Dems Start Filling In Their Brackets For The Big Game To Come; Frustrated R's Watch The Action From The Bench; Our Complete US Senate Coverage Is Up Next. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. March 26, 2019. March 26, 2019.
    11. Haaland. Deb. deb4congressnm. 1116103753151713280. I will not run for the US Senate. I will be focused on ensuring Democrats hold the House in 2020, win the White House, and continue to hold this administration accountable.. April 10, 2019. April 10, 2019.
    12. Web site: Luján . Ben Ray . Thank you, @Deb4CongressNM! You've inspired the people of New Mexico — and the nation — with your fierce leadership in Congress. I am so proud to have your endorsement. . @benraylujan . Twitter . en . April 17, 2019.
    13. Oxford. Andrew. andrewboxford. 1110329217957265408. "While it's an honor to be considered for the Senate seat," #ABQ Mayor Tim Keller said, "I am committed to the people of Albuquerque and making a difference on the challenges we face here every day." So, Keller's out of the running for Udall's seat … #nmpol #congress. March 25, 2019. March 26, 2019.
    14. Web site: Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has become the latest prominent #NM Democrat to endorse U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Luján's bid for U.S. Senate next year. . @DanBoydNM . Twitter . November 7, 2019.
    15. News: Ex-spy Valerie Plame eyes run for Congress in New Mexico. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. April 5, 2019.
    16. News: D'Ammassa. Algernon. Rep. Xochitl Torres Small rules out Senate run in 2020. Las Cruces Sun-News. April 3, 2019. April 3, 2019.
    17. News: Reichbach . Matthew . Lyman . Andy . Who might run to replace Tom Udall in the Senate? . March 26, 2019 . NM Political Report . March 26, 2019.
    18. News: Arkin. James. Sen. Tom Udall won't seek reelection in 2020. Politico. March 25, 2019. March 25, 2019.
    19. Web site: A message to New Mexico from Tom. Udall. Tom. March 25, 2019. Medium. March 28, 2019.
    20. Web site: Udall and Heinrich back Lujan . Santa Fe Reporter . en . November 5, 2019 . November 6, 2019 . November 6, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20191106053026/https://www.sfreporter.com/news/morningword/2019/11/05/happy-election-day/ . dead .
    21. Oxford. Andrew. andrewboxford. 1110329152253509632. Some folks were quick in the wake of Udall's announcement to rule themselves out as potential Senate candidates. Former gubernatorial candidate and #SantaFe Mayor Alan Webber is a no. "I've got the best job in the world," he told me … #nmpol #congress. March 25, 2019. March 26, 2019.
    22. News: Arkin. James. Private poll shows Luján with large, early lead in New Mexico primary. Politico Pro. April 24, 2019. April 24, 2019. Luján leads Toulouse Oliver, 64 percent to 25 percent, according to a poll conducted by GBAO, a Democratic polling firm. A memo outlining the poll's findings was sent to Dan Sena, a consultant for Luján who served as executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last cycle when Luján was chairman. The polling memo also said Luján had higher name ID and favorability among Democratic primary voters, though voters viewed both candidates positively. The memo said Luján led among men, women, Hispanics and Anglos. The poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted April 15–18, the memo said, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points..
    23. Web site: Turner . Scott . TV meteorologist joins New Mexico US Senate race . Albuquerque Journal . January 7, 2020 . January 7, 2020.
    24. News: Reichbach . Matthew . Clarkson announces run for Senate . April 16, 2019 . The NM Political Report . April 16, 2019.
    25. Web site: Contreras . Russell . Republican Elisa Martinez Enters Open Senate Race in New Mexico . Real Clear Politics . December 12, 2019 . November 22, 2019.
    26. Web site: Las Cruces Sun News . May 15, 2020 . Las Cruces native Rick Montoya announces run for US Senate in New Mexico . Damien . Willis . January 16, 2020.
    27. Web site: The Las Cruces Bulletin . May 15, 2020 . Competition rules the day as candidates file. March 13, 2020 . Mike . Cook .
    28. News: Andy Lyman . Mick Rich is running for Senate again. July 26, 2019 . New Mexico Political Report. July 26, 2019.
    29. Web site: Gerstein . Michael . Two GOP candidates end bids for U.S. Senate; Golden Morper quits House race . Santa Fe New Mexican . March 10, 2020.
    30. Web site: Shooting range owner Louie Sanchez joins New Mexico Senate race . Las Cruces Sun News . January 7, 2020 . January 6, 2020.
    31. Web site: Monahan. Joe. Balderas' Big Day: He'll Announce Senate Plans As Ben Ray Warms Up In The Bull Pen, Plus: Maggie Gets Company; Another Well-Known Woman Joins Her In Eyeing A Senate Run. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. March 28, 2019. March 28, 2019.
    32. News: Republican Herrell to run against Torres Small in 2020. Associated Press. KOB. January 8, 2019. February 15, 2019. February 16, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190216153109/https://www.kob.com/new-mexico-news/republican-herrell-to-run-against-torres-small-in-2020/5202659/. dead.
    33. News: Simonich. Milan. Republicans stuck in reverse under Pearce. Santa Fe New Mexican. March 28, 2019. March 28, 2019.
    34. News: Duffy. Jennifer. New Mexico Senate: Udall Announces Retirement; Democrats Favored to Retain Seat. The Cook Political Report. March 25, 2019. March 25, 2019.
    35. News: Sen. Udall won't run in 2020. Santa Fe New Mexican. March 25, 2019. March 25, 2019.
    36. Web site: Ramirez . Chris . Get to know the Democrat, Libertarian candidates running for U.S. Senate in New Mexico . KOB 4 . September 6, 2020 . May 15, 2020 . September 13, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200913080728/https://www.kob.com/new-mexico-news/get-to-know-the-democrat-libertarian-candidates-running-for-us-senate-in-new-mexico/5730939/ . dead .
    37. Web site: New Mexico U.S. Senate Debate. 2020-10-05. C-SPAN.
    38. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020 . The Cook Political Report . March 11, 2021.
    39. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 11, 2021.
    40. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2021.
    41. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings . Daily Kos Elections. March 13, 2021.
    42. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
    43. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2020. October 23, 2020 . RCP.
    44. Web site: September 2, 2020 . 2020 Senate Elections Model. September 2, 2020 . Decision Desk HQ.
    45. Web site: Silver . Nate . Forecasting the race for the Senate . . September 18, 2020 . September 18, 2020.
    46. Web site: November 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . March 13, 2021 . The Economist.
    47. Web site: Dra 2020 .

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