2020 United States Senate election in Montana explained

2020 United States Senate election in Montana should not be confused with 2020 Montana Senate election.

Election Name:	2020 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:	Montana
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2026 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:	2026
Election Date:	November 3, 2020
Image1:	File:Steve Daines, Official Portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Steve Daines
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	333,174
Percentage1:	55.01%
Nominee2:	Steve Bullock
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	272,463
Percentage2:	44.99%
Map Size:	300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Steve Daines
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Steve Daines
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:	81.33% ^[1]

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.^[2]

Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold.^[3] However, Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats.^[4] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points.^[5] Democrats outspent Republicans $82 million to $63 million on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle.^[6] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10% margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations.

Despite his loss, Bullock did outperform Biden, who lost Montana by a 16.4% margin.^[7] He also flipped two counties won by Donald Trump in the presidential contest — Lewis and Clark and Roosevelt.

This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.^[8] This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator was re-elected to this seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator^[9]

Eliminated in primary

• John Driscoll, former Democratic Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (1977–1979)^[10]
• Daniel Larson, hardware store manager

Results

Democratic primary

Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Bullock, incumbent governor of Montana and former candidate for President of the United States in 2020^{[11] [12]}

Eliminated in primary

• John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran^[13]

Withdrawn

• Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)^[14]
• Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)^[15]
• Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)^[16] (remained on ballot)
• Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance^[17] (endorsed Bullock)^[18]
• Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)^[19]

Declined

• Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization^{[20] [21]}
• Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana^[22]
• Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for Montana's at-large congressional district)^[23]

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.^{[24] [25]} However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.^[26]

Withdrawn

• Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the Montana House of Representatives in 2014^[27]
• Susan Geise, Lewis and Clark County commissioner and former chair of the Montana Republican Party^{[28] [24] [29]}

Green Party

Disqualified

• Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services^{[10] [30] [31]}

Eliminated in primary

• Dennis Daneke, retired college professor^[32]

Results

General election

Debate

Host	Date & Time	Link(s)	Participants
			Steve Daines (R)	Steve Bullock (D)
Montana Broadcasters Association	August 8, 2020 9:30pm MDT	^[33]
Montana Television Network	October 10, 2020 5:47pm MDT	^[34]

Predictions

Source	Rating	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[35]		October 29, 2020
align=left	Inside Elections^[36]		October 28, 2020
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[37]		November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[38]		October 30, 2020
Politico^[39]		November 2, 2020
RCP^[40]		October 23, 2020
DDHQ^[41]		November 3, 2020
538^[42]		November 2, 2020
Economist^[43]		November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Steve Bullock	Steve Daines	Other/Undecided	Margin
Real Clear Politics^[44]	October 5–24, 2020	October 30, 2020	46.4%		48.8%	4.8%		Daines + 2.4
270 to Win^[45]	October 19, 2020	October 28, 2020	47.2%		48.0%	4.8%		Daines + 0.8

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Steve Bullock (D)	Other / Undecided
Change Research^[46]	October 29 – November 2, 2020	920 (LV)	± 3.5%		50%	46%	3%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[47]	October 26–27, 2020	886 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%		48%	6%
The Progress Campaign (D)^[48]	October 25, 2020	– (V)	–	48%	48%	–
Montana State University Billings^[49]	October 19–24, 2020	546 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%		48%	5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot^[50]	October 18–20, 2020	758 (LV)	± 4.4%		49%	46%	6%
Strategies 360^[51]	October 15–20, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%		48%	47%	5%
RMG Research^[52]	October 15–18, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%		49%	47%	5%
47%					48%	5%
				50%	45%	5%
Public Policy Polling^[53]	October 9–10, 2020	798 (V)	± 3.5%	48%	48%	4%
Emerson College^[54]	October 4–7, 2020	500 (LV)	± 3.7%		52%	43%	6%
Data For Progress (D)^[55]	September 30 – October 5, 2020	737 (LV)	± 3.6%	47%		48%	4%
Montana State University Bozeman^[56]	September 14 – October 2, 2020	1,609 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%		49%	4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot^[57]	September 14–16, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.8%		45%	44%	11%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates^[58]	August 30 – September 5, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%		50%	47%	3%
Emerson College^[59]	July 31 – August 2, 2020	584 (LV)	± 4.0%		50%	44%	6%
Spry Strategies (R)^[60]	July 11–16, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.7%		47%	44%	9%
Civiqs/Daily Kos^[61]	July 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%		49%	47%	3%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	44%		46%	10%
University of Montana^[63]	June 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	43%		47%	10%
Montana State University Bozeman^[64]	April 10–27, 2020	459 (LV)	± 4.6%	39%		46%	15%
The Progress Campaign (D)^[65]	April 14–21, 2020	712 (LV)	± 4.6%	46%		49%	5%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[66]	March 12–13, 2020	903 (V)	± 3.3%	47%	47%	6%

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues

Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues

Results

By county

County	Steve Daines Republican		Steve Bullock Democratic		Margin		Total votes
	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"			data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%
	Beaverhead		3,775		66.64		1,890		33.36		1,885		33.27		5,665
	Big Horn		2,106		43.94		2,687		56.06		-581		-12.12		4,793
	Blaine		1,343		42.84		1,792		57.16		-449		-14.32		3,135
	Broadwater		3,107		75.60		1,003		24.40		2,104		51.19		4,110
	Carbon		4,404		62.96		2,591		37.04		1,813		25.92		6,995
	Carter		767		86.08		94		10.55		673		75.53		891
	Cascade		22,312		55.73		17,727		44.27		4,585		11.45		40,039
	Chouteau		1,813		60.59		1,179		39.40		634		21.19		2,992
	Custer		3,995		68.17		1,865		31.83		2,130		36.35		5,860
	Daniels		787		76.41		243		23.59		544		52.82		1,030
	Dawson		3,634		75.35		1,189		24.65		2,445		50.70		4,823
	Deer Lodge		1,921		39.35		2,961		60.65		-1,040		-21.30		4,882
	Fallon		1,341		85.09		235		14.91		1,106		70.18		1,576
	Fergus		4,746		72.63		1,788		27.36		2,958		45.27		6,534
	Flathead		37,861		63.06		22,180		36.94		15,681		26.12		60,041
	Gallatin		31,829		44.65		39,450		55.35		-7,621		-10.69		71,279
	Garfield		736		90.98		73		9.02		663		81.95		809
	Glacier		1,687		29.50		4,032		70.50		-2,345		-41.00		5,719
	Golden Valley		405		80.36		99		19.64		306		60.71		504
	Granite		1,360		64.73		741		35.27		619		29.46		2,101
	Hill		3,746		51.86		3,477		48.14		269		3.72		7,223
	Jefferson		5,206		63.70		2,967		36.30		2,239		27.40		8,173
	Judith Basin		1,026		76.11		322		23.89		704		52.22		1,348
	Lake		8,964		53.91		7,664		46.09		1,300		7.82		16,628
	Lewis and Clark		20,554		48.35		21,955		51.65		-1,401		-3.30		42,509
	Liberty		789		72.52		299		27.48		490		45.04		1,088
	Lincoln		8,490		72.45		3,228		27.55		5,262		44.90		11,718
	Madison		4,103		67.06		2,015		32.93		2,088		34.13		6,118
	McCone		946		84.24		177		15.76		769		68.48		1,123
	Meagher		812		72.63		306		27.37		506		45.26		1,118
	Mineral		1,735		68.01		816		31.99		919		36.02		2,551
	Missoula		25,529		35.56		46,268		64.44		-20,739		-28.88		71,797
	Musselshell		2,341		81.31		538		18.69		1,803		62.63		2,879
	Park		5,841		50.32		5,766		49.68		75		0.65		11,607
	Petroleum		300		85.47		51		14.53		249		70.94		351
	Phillips		1,895		79.69		483		20.31		1,412		59.38		2,378
	Pondera		1,933		64.33		1,072		35.67		861		28.65		3,005
	Powder River		957		84.17		180		15.83		777		68.34		1,137
	Powell		2,240		70.53		936		29.47		1,304		41.06		3,176
	Prairie		586		78.45		161		21.55		425		56.89		747
	Ravalli		18,706		65.47		9,868		34.53		8,838		30.93		28,574
	Richland		4,669		80.63		1,122		19.37		3,547		61.25		5,791
	Roosevelt		1,891		46.89		2,142		53.11		-251		-6.22		4,033
	Rosebud		2,436		64.55		1,338		35.45		1,098		29.09		3,774
	Sanders		5,395		71.12		2,191		28.88		3,204		42.24		7,586
	Sheridan		1,356		67.00		668		33.00		688		33.99		2,024
	Silver Bow		6,641		35.28		12,183		64.72		-5,542		-29.44		18,824
	Stillwater		4,370		76.08		1,374		23.92		2,996		52.16		5,744
	Sweet Grass		1,834		74.58		625		25.42		1,209		49.17		2,459
	Teton		2,541		68.56		1,165		31.44		1,376		37.13		3,706
	Toole		1,528		71.97		595		28.03		933		43.95		2,123
	Treasure		376		81.03		88		18.97		288		62.07		464
	Valley		2,953		69.34		1,306		30.66		1,647		38.67		4,259
	Wheatland		789		74.50		270		25.50		519		49.01		1,059
	Wibaux		491		82.38		105		17.62		386		64.76		596
	Yellowstone		49,276		58.59		34,833		41.41		14,443		17.17		84,109
Totals	333,174	55.01	272,463	44.99	60,711	10.02	605,637

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Gallatin (largest municipality: Bozeman)
• Lewis and Clark (largest municipality: Helena)
• Roosevelt (largest municipality: Wolf Point)

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

• • • Web site: League of Women Voters of Montana . (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Official campaign websites

• Steve Bullock (D) for Senate
• Steve Daines (R) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: Montana Voter Turnout. Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. 22 February 2018 . 2022-05-26.
2. Web site: Drake. Phil. Daines, Bullock take party primaries in Montana US Senate race. 2020-11-29. Great Falls Tribune. en-US.
3. News: Here's who we think will win the 2020 elections in Montana . Politico . November 19, 2019 . April 12, 2020.
4. Web site: Nilsen . Ella . Zhou . Li . Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats . Vox . March 9, 2020 . April 12, 2020.
5. Web site: Western States Coronavirus Survey - Montana - Politics and Policy Questions . Montana State University - HELPS Lab.
6. Web site: 2020-11-01. Trump noticeably absent from key US Senate race in Montana. 2021-02-16. ABC News. en-us.
7. News: Montana U.S. Senate Election Results. The New York Times . November 3, 2020 . 11 February 2021.
8. News: September 13, 2020 . No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race . . live . https://archive.today/20200913205414/http://ballot-access.org/2020/09/13/no-alternative-candidates-on-montana-ballot-for-any-congressional-race/ . September 13, 2020 . September 13, 2020 .
9. News: Hardware store manager enters Montana U.S. Senate race . KPAX . February 23, 2020 . 2020-03-03.
10. News: Michels . Holly . Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises . Helena Independent Record . March 9, 2020.
11. News: Arkin . James . Bullock enters Montana Senate race . Politico . en . March 9, 2020.
12. News: Pramuk . Jacob . Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority . CNBC . en . March 9, 2020.
13. News: Michels . Holly . Democrat John Mues joins U.S. Senate race . Missoulian . July 11, 2019.
14. News: Ballard drops from U.S. Senate Race . Great Falls Tribune . September 13, 2019 . September 14, 2019.
15. Collins . Wilmot . CollinsWilmot . 1237147675054600192 . March 9, 2020 . Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock. . 9 March 2020.
16. 1236997949730611207 . KnolesMichael . With @GovernorBullock joining the Montana Senate race, I'll be dropping This race is too important to let my ego dictate decisions. @SteveDaines must go, and I will do everything I can to make sure we #FlipTheSenate I'll find another vector. Right now we've got a seat to flip! . Mike Knoles . March 9, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200309125612/https://twitter.com/KnolesMichael/status/1236997949730611207 . March 9, 2020 . dead.
17. Neumann . Cora . CoraforMT . 1237028772018180097 . March 9, 2020 . Today, I am announcing that I am withdrawing from the race for U.S. Senate and supporting Governor Steve Bullock's campaign. . March 9, 2020.
18. LA_Hagen . 1237018996026814465 . March 9, 2020 . With Bullock's entrance into #MTSEN, Democrat Cora Neumann drops out and endorses him.
19. News: Stein . Perrin . Bozeman Senate candidate drops out of race, supports Bullock . Bozeman Daily Chronicle.
20. News: Lippman. Daniel. 'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor. Politico. May 10, 2019. May 10, 2019.
21. Punke . Michael . MPunke . 1142825782642958336 . June 23, 2019 . As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement. . 2019-06-23.
22. Web site: Singiser . Steve . Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours? . Daily Kos . 19 February 2019.
23. News: Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat. Associated Press. KECI. April 5, 2019. April 5, 2019.
24. News: Susan Good Geise: Montana Libertarian withdraws from U.S. Senate race . Missoula Current . May 18, 2020.
25. Web site: Statement from the Montana Libertarian Party as Susan Good Geise withdraws from the US Senate race in Montana . Facebook . May 16, 2020.
26. Web site: Dennison . Mike . Libertarians won't have 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in Montana . KTVH . August 7, 2020 . August 6, 2020.
27. Web site: Candidate Filing . Montana Secretary of State . Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen . March 18, 2020 . June 2, 2020.
28. News: Geise enters 2020 run for U.S. Senate as Libertarian . Great Falls Tribune . March 20, 2020.
29. Web site: May 15, 2020 — Susan Good Geise . Susan Good Geise for US Senate . May 15, 2020 . June 23, 2020 . June 26, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200626075021/https://www.susangoodgeise.com/ . dead .
30. News: Holly Michels . May 18, 2020 . Greens say 'Go Green Montana' group isn't affiliated. Helena Independent Record . en . 2020-06-03.
31. Web site: Michels . Holly . Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot . Helena Independent Record . August 7, 2020 . August 7, 2020.
32. News: Dennison . Mike . MT Green Party candidates: One says, 'don't vote for me' . KTVH . March 26, 2020.
33. Web site: WATCH: Daines, Bullock square off in first 2020 U.S. Senate Debate. 2020-08-08. KTVH.
34. Web site: Montana U.S. Senate Debate. 2020-10-10. C-SPAN.
35. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020 . The Cook Political Report . March 11, 2021.
36. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 11, 2021.
37. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2021.
38. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings . Daily Kos Elections. March 13, 2021.
39. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
40. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2020. October 23, 2020 . RCP.
41. Web site: September 2, 2020 . 2020 Senate Elections Model. September 2, 2020 . Decision Desk HQ.
42. Web site: Silver . Nate . Forecasting the race for the Senate . . September 18, 2020 . September 18, 2020.
43. Web site: November 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . March 13, 2021 . The Economist.
44. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_bullock-7063.html Real Clear Politics
45. https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 270 to Win
46. https://changeresearch.com/post/final-public-polling-2020/ Change Research
47. https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Health-Care-a-Key-Issue-for-Montana-Voters-Trust-Bullock-Over-Daines-to-Protect-Their-Health-Care.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
48. https://twitter.com/WhosWinning2020/status/1322213380309061633 The Progress Campaign (D)
49. http://www.msubillings.edu/class/nams/polls/2020-mountain-states-poll-report.pdf Montana State University Billings
50. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt101820-crosstabs/1bf52689f78606b4/full.pdf Siena College/NYT Upshot
51. https://nbcmontana.com/news/beyond-the-podium/nbc-montanastrategies-360-poll-shows-extremely-tight-montana-races Strategies 360
52. http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/19/montana-senate-race-daines-r-49-bullock-d-47/ RMG Research
53. https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/montana-senate-tight-as-can-be/ Public Policy Polling
54. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/montana-2020-republicans-hold-advantages-in-presidential-us-senate-and-governor-races Emerson College
55. https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-3/MT.pdf Data For Progress (D)
56. https://helpslab.montana.edu/documents/treasure_state_2020_election_surveys/Senate_Overview_Final_11Oct2020.pdf Montana State University Bozeman
57. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt-crosstabs/4da3e297acefb561/full.pdf Siena College/NYT Upshot
58. https://www.aarp.org/research/topics/politics/info-2020/2020-election-battleground-state-surveys.html Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates
59. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/montana-2020-trump-holds-strong-as-biden-coalesces-support Emerson College
60. https://americanprinciplesproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/APP.Montana.pdf Spry Strategies (R)
61. https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MT_banner_book_2020_07_ba6t8k.pdf Civiqs/Daily Kos
62. https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MontanaPoll071220.pdf Public Policy Polling
63. https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Polls/summer2020/summer2020---aggregate.pdf University of Montana
64. http://helpslab.montana.edu/documents/western_states_2020_coronavirus_survey/PoliticsPolicy_Montana_Frequencies_01May2020_RELEASE.pdf Montana State University Bozeman
65. https://becd085d-5f24-4974-b9b5-73518197155a.filesusr.com/ugd/83fab9_bbce745701f747fba1f45856469d7572.pdf The Progress Campaign (D)
66. https://www.endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Montana-Poll.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
67. https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/Spring2020_Aggregate%20Report%20with%20Xtabs.pdf University of Montana
68. http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/FINALFINALBSP%204.0%20Aggregate%20Report%20with%20Xtabs.pdf University of Montana