2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine explained

Election Name:2020 United States House of Representatives Elections in Maine
Country:Maine
Type:legislative
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine
Next Year:2022
Seats For Election:All 2 Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Last Election1:2
Seats1:2
Popular Vote1:468,978
Percentage1:57.95%
Swing1: 2.83%
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Last Election2:0
Seats2:0
Popular Vote2:340,236
Percentage2:42.04%
Swing2: 1.92%

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The election was conducted with ranked choice voting, as per the result of a referendum passed in 2016.

Party primaries were initially scheduled to take place on June 9, 2020. They were rescheduled by Gov. Janet Mills to July 14, 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mills' executive order also expanded the ability to request absentee ballots, which may now be done up to and on election day.[1] Parties that qualified to participate in the 2020 primary election were the Democratic Party, the Green Independent Party, and the Republican Party. Two candidates in District 1 and four candidates in District 2 filed petitions with the secretary of state by March 16, 2020.[2] Non-party candidates could also file petitions to be included on the ballot by June 1, 2020.[3]

Overview

scope=col rowspan=3Districtscope=col colspan=2Democraticscope=col colspan=2Republicanscope=col colspan=2Othersscope=col colspan=2Totalscope=col rowspan=3Result
scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"!scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"!scope=col colspan=2!scope=col colspan=2
scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"%
271,004 62.15% 165,008 37.84% 15 0.00% 436,027 100.0% Democratic hold
197,974 53.04% 175,228 46.95% 33 0.01% 373,235 100.0% Democratic hold
Total 468,978 57.95% 340,236 42.04% 48 0.01% 809,262 100.0%

District 1

Election Name:2020 Maine's 1st congressional district election
Country:Maine
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine#District 1
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine#District 1
Next Year:2022
Nominee1:Chellie Pingree
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:271,004
Percentage1:62.2%
Nominee2:Jay Allen
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:165,008
Percentage2:37.8%
Map Size:170px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Chellie Pingree
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Chellie Pingree
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Maine's 1st congressional district.

The 1st district encompasses the southern coastal area of the state, taking in Portland, Augusta, Brunswick and Saco. The incumbent was Democrat Chellie Pingree, who was re-elected with 58.8% of the vote in 2018.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Primary results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Primary results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[6] October 2, 2020
align=left Inside Elections[7] October 1, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] October 1, 2020
Politico[9] September 8, 2020
Daily Kos[10] September 25, 2020
RCP[11] June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] July 26, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chellie
Pingree (D)
Jay
Allen (R)
Other/
Undecided
Colby CollegeOctober 21–25, 2020426 (LV)58%31%11%
Pan Atlantic ResearchOctober 2–6, 2020300 (LV)± 6.4%54%35%11%
Critical InsightsSeptember 25 – October 4, 2020232 (LV)58%24%18%
Critical InsightsJuly 28 – August 10, 2020233 (LV)50%22%27%

Results

District 2

Election Name:2020 Maine's 2nd congressional district election
Country:Maine
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine#District 2
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine#District 2
Next Year:2022
Nominee1:Jared Golden
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:197,974
Percentage1:53.0%
Nominee2:Dale Crafts
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:175,228
Percentage2:46.9%
Map Size:175px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Jared Golden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jared Golden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Maine's 2nd congressional district.

The 2nd district covers most of northern rural Maine, including the cities of Lewiston, Bangor, Auburn and Presque Isle. The incumbent was Democrat Jared Golden, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.6% of the vote in 2018,[4] making him the first member of Congress to be elected by ranked choice voting.[13] Donald Trump won the district in the concurrent presidential election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Primary results

Republican primary

On the ballot

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adrienne
Bennett
Eric
Brakey
Dale
Crafts
Undecided
SurveyUSAJune 30 – July 6, 2020604 (LV)± 4.1%25%19%37%19%
31%45%34%
We Ask AmericaJune 16–17, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%28%22%20%29%

Primary results

Both Bennett and Brakey conceded the race to Crafts the day after the primary. As Crafts did not get 50% of the vote, Maine's ranked choice system calls for the second choices of the last place candidate's votes to be distributed to the other candidates, whether or not the candidates concede the race. Crafts criticized this as a waste of taxpayer dollars, and both Bennett and Brakey said they would refuse to accept the results of the ranked choice tabulation. Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said whether the concessions could stop the tabulation was "a question for lawyers", but that the tabulation would begin on July 18. Crafts called on the Maine Legislature to examine this issue. Dunlap's office, while not responding directly to Crafts' call to action on the Legislature, did agree with Crafts that Dunlap was performing his duty under the law.[20]

Republican primary results[21]
PartyCandidateRound 1Round 2
Votes%TransferVotes% (gross)% (net)
RepublicanDale Crafts23,66545.0%+3,55128,01953.3%58.0%
RepublicanAdrienne Bennett16,92032.2%+3,37520,29538.6%100% 42.0%
RepublicanEric Brakey11,97622.8%-11,976Eliminated
Total active votes52,56148,314100.0%
Exhausted ballots+3,25241908.0%
Total votes52,561100.0%52,561100.0%
% (gross) = percent of all valid votes cast (without eliminating the exhausted votes)
% (net) = percent of votes cast after eliminating the exhausted votes

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportOctober 2, 2020
align=left Inside ElectionsOctober 16, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 1, 2020
PoliticoOctober 11, 2020
Daily KosOctober 29, 2020
RCPJune 9, 2020
NiskanenJuly 26, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Golden (D)
Dale
Crafts (R)
Other/
Undecided
Change ResearchOctober 29 – November 2, 2020475 (LV)± 4.6%53%44%3%
Colby CollegeOctober 21–25, 2020453 (LV)56%31%13%
Pan Atlantic ResearchOctober 2–6, 2020300 (LV)± 6.4%60%33%7%
Critical InsightsSeptember 25 – October 4, 2020234 (LV)52%34%14%
Colby CollegeSeptember 17–23, 2020275 (LV)56%33%11%
Siena College/NYT UpshotSeptember 11–16, 2020440 (LV)56%37%6%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research AssociatesAugust 30 – September 5, 2020367 (LV)53%40%7%
Wick Surveys (D)August 25–28, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%50%44%6%
Critical InsightsJuly 28 – August 10, 2020218 (LV)46%36%18%
Colby College/SocialSphereJuly 18–24, 2020888 (LV)± 3.9%45%33%22%
Jared Golden vs. generic Republican

Results

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

See main article: e.

Notes and References

  1. News: Andrews. Caitlin. December 18, 2019. Mills officially pushes back June elections to July 14. Bangor Daily News. April 10, 2020.
  2. Web site: Candidates Listing (xls) . www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/ . 25 March 2020.
  3. Web site: Candidate's Guide . www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/ . 12 March 2020.
  4. Web site: Wasserman. David. Flinn. Ally. 2018 House Popular Vote Tracker. Cook Political Report. November 7, 2018. February 15, 2019.
  5. News: Houk . Evan . New Harbor Man Seeks Republican Nomination for Congress . The Lincoln County News . August 29, 2019 . August 29, 2019.
  6. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2019.
  7. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 3, 2019.
  8. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . August 28, 2019 . August 22, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190822073139/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/ . dead .
  9. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  10. Web site: Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020 . Daily Kos Elections. February 28, 2020.
  11. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  12. Web site: 2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections. April 28, 2020. Niskanen Center. May 1, 2020. June 21, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200621124503/https://www.niskanencenter.org/negative-partisanship-and-the-2020-congressional-elections/. dead.
  13. News: Ranked-choice voting worked in Maine. Now we should use it in presidential races.. USA TODAY. 2018-11-18. en.
  14. Collins. Steve. SteveCollinsSJ. 1130513682163802117. Not surprising, but @RepGolden said today he is not going to run for US Senate. He said he respects @SenatorCollins & her approach to governing, even if he doesn't always agree with her. Besides, he said, his #ME02 seat is "not a stepping stone" & he plans to stay. #mepolitics. May 20, 2019. May 20, 2019.
  15. Web site: Blanchard . Zach . Paul LePage's former press secretary eyes 2nd District U.S. House seat . newscentermaine.com . October 8, 2019 . October 8, 2019.
  16. News: Collins. Steve. Maine republicans to hold 'Stop The Madness' rally in defense of Trump. Sun Journal. July 29, 2019. July 30, 2019.
  17. Web site: Collins . Steve . Crafts, a former state lawmaker, plans to seek 2nd Congressional District seat . Sun Journal . October 4, 2019 . October 3, 2019.
  18. Web site: Shepherd . Michael . Paul LePage hints that another Republican will join race to unseat Jared Golden . WGME . September 5, 2019 . September 5, 2019.
  19. Web site: Hoey . Dennis . Bruce Poliquin will not run against Jared Golden in 2020 . Portland Press Herald . August 4, 2019 . August 3, 2019.
  20. Web site: Mannino. Gabrielle. Crafts says ranked-choice tabulation is 'not necessary' and 'an affront to the taxpayer'. WCSH. July 16, 2020. July 16, 2020.
  21. Web site: Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Tabulations June 12, 2018. www.maine.gov.