2020 Missouri gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2020 Missouri gubernatorial election
Country:	Missouri
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2016 Missouri gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2016
Next Election:	2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2024
Election Date:	November 3, 2020
Image1:	File:Mike Parson official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Mike Parson
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,720,202
Percentage1:	57.11%
Nominee2:	Nicole Galloway
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	1,225,771
Percentage2:	40.69%
Map Size:	275px
Governor
Before Election:	Mike Parson
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Mike Parson
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:	69.75%

The 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson ran for and was elected to a full term in office.^[1] Parson was elected as lieutenant governor in 2016 but became governor on June 1, 2018, after incumbent Eric Greitens resigned under threat of impeachment by the state legislature. Parson declared his bid for a full term on September 8, 2019. State Auditor Nicole Galloway, Missouri's only Democratic statewide officer and only female statewide officer, was the Democratic nominee and if elected, would have become Missouri's first female governor.

In October 2020, The Washington Post identified this state election as one of eight whose outcomes could affect partisan balance during post-census redistricting.^[2]

Despite most news agencies characterizing the race as only leaning Republican, Mike Parson went on to win the election by a landslide of 16.4%, widely outperforming all election polling as well as justifying the former swing state's trend towards the GOP. He even exceeded Donald Trump's statewide victory margin in the concurrent presidential election, which was actually greater than that in neighboring Kansas for the first time in 104 years. Galloway suffered the largest margin of defeat for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Missouri since Betty Hearnes' 29-point loss in 1988. The 1988 election was also the last election until this one in which Missouri elected a Republican for governor by double digits.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mike Parson, incumbent governor of Missouri^{[3] [4]} and former state senator

Eliminated in primary

• Saundra McDowell, U.S. Air Force veteran and Republican nominee for Missouri state auditor in 2018^[5]
• Jim Neely, state representative from the 8th district^[6]
• Raleigh Ritter, rancher and businessman^[7]

Declined

• Jay Ashcroft, Missouri Secretary of State^[8]
• Eric Greitens, former governor of Missouri^{[9] [10]}
• Tony Monetti, retired bomber pilot, assistant dean of aviation at University of Central Missouri, and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018^[11]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Mike Parson	Eric Greitens	Other / Undecided
	March 31, 2020	Filing deadline, by which Greitens had not declared his candidacy
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[12]	Jan 29–30, 2020	1,155 (LV)	± 2.9%		52%	22%	26%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri^[13]	Jan 20–22, 2020	1,200 (LV)	–		56%	30%	11%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Nicole Galloway, Missouri state auditor^[14]

Eliminated in primary

• Eric Morrison, community leader and pastor^[15]
• Antoin Johnson^[16]
• Jimmie Matthews
• Robin Quaethem

Declined

• Sly James, former mayor of Kansas City, Missouri^[17]
• Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016, former candidate for Mayor of Kansas City in 2019^[18]
• Claire McCaskill, former U.S. senator^[19]
• Scott Sifton, state senator from the 1st district and former state representative from the 96th district (endorsed Galloway)^[20]

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Rik Combs, U.S. Air Force veteran^[16]

Results

Green Party

Nominee

• Jerome Bauer^[16]

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[21]		October 23, 2020
Inside Elections^[22]		October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[23]		November 2, 2020
Politico^[24]		November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[25]		October 28, 2020
RCP^[26]		November 2, 2020
270towin^[27]		November 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Parson (R)	Nicole Galloway (D)	Other / Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[28]	October 28–29, 2020	1,010 (LV)	± 3%		50%	44%	5%
Cygnal (R)^[29]	October 18–20, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%		48%	42%	10%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[30]	October 14–15, 2020	1,010 (LV)	± 3%		51%	43%	6%
YouGov^[31]	September 24 – October 7, 2020	931 (LV)	± 3.9%		50%	44%	7%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)^[32]	September 28 – October 2, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.1%		50%	48%	–
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[33]	September 30 – October 1, 2020	980 (LV)	± 3%		51%	44%	5%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[34]	September 16–17, 2020	1,046 (LV)	± 3%		52%	43%	5%
We Ask America^[35]	September 1–3, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.38%		54%	41%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R)^[36]	August 26–28, 2020	1,015 (LV)	± 2.99%		51%	36%	13%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[37]	August 12–13, 2020	1,112 (LV)	± 3.0%		50%	43%	7%
Saint Louis University^[38]	June 23 – July 1, 2020	900 (LV)	± 4.0%		41%	39%	20%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Missouri Scout (D)^[39]	June 16–22, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%		47%	40%	–
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[40]	June 10–11, 2020	1,152 (LV)	± 2.9%		50%	41%	9%
We Ask America^[41]	May 26–27, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%		47%	39%	15%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[42]	April 28–29, 2020	1,356 (LV)	± 2.6%		52%	39%	9%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout^[43]	March 11–12, 2020	1,241 (LV)	–		52%	39%	7%
American Viewpoint (R)^[44]	January 20–22, 2020	1,200 (LV)	–		54%	36%	7%
Human Agency/Missouri Scout^[45]	December 20–24, 2019	415 (RV)	± 5%		51%	36%	13%
Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)^[46]	November 17–20, 2019	400 (RV)	± 5.0%		51%	35%	14%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[47]	November 14–15, 2019	921 (LV)	–		45%	36%	19%
Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)^[48]	October 18–20, 2019	550 (RV)	± 4.0%		50%	34%	16%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R)^[49]	October 9–10, 2019	1,451 (LV)	± 2.5%		53%	41%	6%
Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)^[50]	September 16–18, 2019	825 (RV)	± 4.0%		45%	36%	19%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R)^[51]	August 14–15, 2019	855 (LV)	± 3.3%		50%	39%	11%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R)^[52]	June 26–27, 2019	960 (LV)	± 3.2%		50%	37%	13%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R)^[53]	February 27, 2019	893 (LV)	± 3.4%		51%	40%	9%

Eric Greitens vs Nicole Galloway

Mike Parson vs Jason Kander
Mike Parson vs. Scott Sifton

Results

By congressional district

Parson won 6 of 8 congressional districts.^[54]

District	Parson	Galloway	Representative
	19%	78%		Lacy Clay (116th Congress)
			Cori Bush (117th Congress)
		51%	48%		Ann Wagner
		66%	31%		Blaine Luetkemeyer
		66%	31%		Vicky Hartzler
		40%	57%		Emanuel Cleaver
		64%	34%		Sam Graves
		70%	27%		Billy Long
		76%	22%		Jason Smith

See also

• 2020 Missouri elections

Notes

Partisan clients

Further reading

• . (About redistricting).

External links

Official campaign websites

• Rik Combs (L) for Governor
• Nicole Galloway (D) for Governor
• Mike Parson (R) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Embattled Missouri Governor Eric Greitens resigns amid scandals. CNN. May 29, 2018. May 29, 2018. Clare Foran.
2. News: The state legislative battles to watch in 2020 . Amber . Phillips . The Washington Post . October 2, 2020 . October 2, 2020.
3. Web site: Missouri governor to be replaced by longtime traditional politician. Parks. MaryAlice. May 30, 2018. ABC News. June 4, 2018.
4. News: Suntrup . Jack . Missouri Gov. Mike Parson, a cattle-farming former sheriff, announces bid for 4-year term . September 8, 2019 . . September 8, 2019.
5. Web site: Gerber . Cameron . Saundra McDowell files to run for governor, challenging Parson . The Missouri Times . March 31, 2020.
6. Web site: Erickson . Kurt . State lawmaker announces plan to challenge Parson for GOP nomination for Missouri governor . St. Louis Post-Dispatch . August 30, 2019 . August 28, 2019.
7. Web site: Raleigh Ritter. Raleigh Ritter For Missouri. Governor. Raleigh Ritter For Missouri Governor.
8. Web site: Parson faces unrest among Missouri conservatives as he heads into 2020. Star. Jason Hancock and Lindsay Wise Kansas City. Columbia Daily Tribune. en. 2019-04-02.
9. Web site: A Greitens comeback? Supporters of the ex-Missouri governor are hopeful. Kurt Erickson, Jack. Suntrup. STLtoday.com. 19 January 2020 . Jan 9, 2021.
10. Web site: Greitens 2020? Could former Gov. Greitens run for governor again?. KOMU.com. 2020-03-25. 2020-02-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20200219125634/https://www.komu.com/news/greitens-2020-could-former-gov-greitens-run-for-governor-again-/. dead.
11. Hancock. Jason. J_Hancock. 1115248103857250305. . @MonettiforMO went on @PeteMundo show this morning to announce he will not challenge @GovParsonMO in the GOP primary for governor in 2020. He'll dissolve his exploratory committee. #MoLeg #MoGOv. April 8, 2019. April 8, 2019.
12. https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-013120.pptx Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
13. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5e31152d5e09e066cfdffe96/1580274990226/MO+Statewide+IP+Memo_Jan+20.pdf American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri
14. Web site: Lieb . David A. . Democrat Galloway launches Missouri gubernatorial campaign . Associated Press News . August 12, 2019 . August 12, 2019.
15. Web site: Eric Morrison for Missouri |. Jan 9, 2021. January 24, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210124181008/https://www.morrisonformissouri.com/. dead.
16. Web site: SOS, Missouri - Elections: Offices Filed in Candidate Filing. s1.sos.mo.gov.
17. Web site: New Missouri Democratic vice chair says the party can attract both urban and rural voters. Rosenbaum. Jason. KSMU. 4 December 2018. 2018-12-11.
18. News: Salter . Jim . Stafford . Margaret . Jason Kander is back after quietly working through PTSD . Associated Press . July 28, 2019 . Military Times . August 6, 2019.
19. News: Raasch . Chuck . McCaskill: I'll never run again, but I'll stay involved in politics . St. Louis Post Dispatch . December 12, 2018 . February 27, 2019.
20. Web site: Missouri lawmaker from Affton who considered run for governor backs Democratic auditor instead. Suntrup. Jack. stltoday.com. 2 July 2019 . en. 2019-07-02.
21. Web site: 2020 Governor Race Ratings for October 23, 2020. The Cook Political Report. en. March 11, 2021.
22. Web site: 2020 Gubernatorial Ratings. insideelections.com. March 11, 2021.
23. Web site: 2020 Gubernatorial race ratings . November 2, 2020 . Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 13, 2021.
24. Web site: We rated every gubernatorial race in 2020. Here's who we think will win.. Politico. November 19, 2019.
25. Web site: 2020 Governor Race Ratings . . June 1, 2020 . June 5, 2020.
26. Web site: June 13, 2020 . 2020 Governor Races. June 14, 2020 . RealClearPolitics.
27. Web site: 2020 Gubernatorial Elections Map . 270towin.
28. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5f9d55cbe9a0e4631ae6f106/1604146650952/MOSCOUT+Statewide+General+Election+103020.pptx Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
29. https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-poll-parson-up-6-points-in-missouri-governors-race/ Cygnal (R)
30. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201017_MO_Remington.pdf Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
31. https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k0pvsrbbzcy8p6/slu-poll-october2020-toplineresults.pdf?dl=0 YouGov
32. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5f7da30aae0dc50f899426db/1602069258463/Garin+Hart+Yang+Recent+MO+statewide+survey+Memo_FINAL.pdf Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
33. https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-Statewide-General-Election-Survey-Deck-100220.pptx Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
34. https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-Statewide-091820.pptx Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
35. http://www.weaskamerica.com/surveys/missouri-statewide-general-election-survey-results-el9mz We Ask America
36. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogB5yeDqlCumbbCo5eRq-tvDZOR8gfLK/view Trafalgar Group (R)
37. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/missouri/ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
38. https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/june-2020-poll/parson-galloway.php Saint Louis University
39. https://moscout.com/s/Galloway-For-Governor-Recent-Polling-of-the-Presidential-and-Gubernatorial-Races-in-MO.pdf Garin-Hart-Yang/Missouri Scout (D)
40. https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-STATEWIDE-DECK-061220.pptx Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
41. http://www.weaskamerica.com/surveys/missouri-statewide-general-election-survey-results We Ask America
42. https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-DECK-043020.pptx Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
43. https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-031320.pptx Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
44. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5e31152d5e09e066cfdffe96/1580274990226/MO+Statewide+IP+Memo_Jan+20.pdf American Viewpoint (R)
45. https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2019/12/27/moscout-daily-update-gop-leads-in-new-poll-dhss-announces-mmj-growers-list-and-more Human Agency/Missouri Scout
46. https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2019/11/21/moscout-daily-update-schmitt-to-start-testing-kits-new-ha-poll-bates-for-school-board-g-men-in-i-city-and-more Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)
47. https://themissouritimes.com/66514/democratic-governors-association-says-abortion-fight-will-drastically-alter-missouri-in-2020/ Public Policy Polling (D)
48. https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2019/10/22/moscout-daily-update-new-galloway-campaign-manager-human-agency-poll-gop-leads-merideth-shakes-fist-at-schmitt-watching-in-senate-25-and-more Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)
49. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5da11edc6128266a78efd77e/1570840295640/MOSCOUT+101119.pptx Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
50. https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2019/9/20/moscout-daily-update-poll-parson-up-10-74-want-background-checks-pro-moon-pac-gets-100k-parson-unveils-crime-plan-page-on-family-leave-and-more Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)
51. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5d56fcfdc668d00001eb0947/1565981950656/MOSCOUT+081619.pptx Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
52. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5d175a529030850001037dc0/1561811544962/MOSCOUT+062819.pptx Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
53. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5c79dbe0b208fcd40714d616/1551490018030/MOSCOUT+Deck+030119.pptx Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
54. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting. August 18, 2024.