2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary explained

Election Name:	2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary
Country:	Arizona
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Party Name:	no
Previous Election:	2016 Arizona Democratic presidential primary
Previous Year:	2016
Next Election:	2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary
Next Year:	2024
Election Date:	March 17, 2020
Outgoing Members:	MP
Elected Members:	FL
Votes For Election:	80 delegates (67 pledged, 13 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
Image1:	File:Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg
Candidate1:	Joe Biden
Color1:	224192
Home State1:	Delaware
Delegate Count1:	38
Popular Vote1:	268,029
Percentage1:	43.7%
Candidate2:	Bernie Sanders
Color2:	228b22
Home State2:	Vermont
Delegate Count2:	29
Popular Vote2:	200,456
Percentage2:	32.7%
Image4:	File:Michael Bloomberg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate4:	Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)
Color4:	9370db
Home State4:	New York
Delegate Count4:	0
Popular Vote4:	58,797
Percentage4:	9.6%
Image5:	File:Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate5:	Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Color5:	b61b28
Home State5:	Massachusetts
Delegate Count5:	0
Popular Vote5:	35,537
Percentage5:	5.8%
Map Size:	250px

Pledged national convention delegates
Type
CD1	5
CD2	6
CD3	5
CD4	3
CD5	5
CD6	5
CD7	4
CD8	5
CD9	6
	9
At-large	14
Total pledged delegates	67

The 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three contests on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while the contest in Ohio had been postponed for roughly a month. The closed primary allocated 80 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 67 were pledged delegates allocated according to the results of the primary.

Three major candidates ran in the primary, including former vice president Joe Biden, senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, and representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii's 2nd district. 12 other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot, along with three minor candidates. Biden won the primary, with almost 44% of the vote and 38 delegates, while Sanders came in second place with almost 33% of the vote and 29 delegates. In a distant third was former mayor Michael Bloomberg, who came close to 10%, even though he had suspended his campaign nearly two weeks before and had issued an official withdrawal with the state, still remaining on the ballot.

Biden won 13 of 15 counties, with the exception of Coconino and Yuma, and 7 of 9 congressional districts.^[1] Key to his victory were white voters, whom he won 51-32 per CNN exit polls, and suburban voters, who he won 53–32.^[2] In a stark contrast from 2016, Sanders' strength was reliant primarily on non-white and Hispanic voters, whom Biden won by only 47-45 and 45–44, respectively. Biden would ultimately win the state of Arizona in the general election by 10,457 votes, making him the first Democrat to win it since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry Truman did so in 1948.

Procedure

Arizona was one of three states holding primaries on March 17, 2020, alongside Florida and Illinois, while only one day before Ohio had been the first state to postpone its primary due to the COVID-19 pandemic and cancel in-person voting, accepting ballots until April 28 instead.

Voters had to have registered as Democrats by February 18 to be eligible for voting in the primary. Arizona mailed ballots to voters on the permanent early voting list. Ballots had to be received by 7:00 p.m. on March 17, 2020. In addition, some Arizona counties offered early voting sites, where any voter could walk in and vote in person, Monday to Friday, from February 19 through March 13, 2020.^{[3] [4]} Voting took place from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m MST. In the closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates. The 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 3 and 6 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 9 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 14 at-large delegates.^[5] As a March primary on Stage I of the primary timetable Arizona received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on a March date.^[6]

District caucuses were held on April 18, 2020, to designate national convention district delegates. The state convention and state committee meeting were subsequently held on May 16, 2020, to vote on the 14 at-large and 9 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation also included 13 unpledged PLEO delegates: 7 members of the Democratic National Committee and 6 members of Congress (one senator and 5 representatives).

Candidates

The following candidates appeared on the ballot in Arizona. Candidates that had filed a formal withdrawal with the office remained on the ballot because it had already been printed but their votes were not individually published in the final canvass, making them effectively ineligible.

Running

• Joe Biden
• Roque De La Fuente III
• Michael Ellinger
• Tulsi Gabbard
• Henry Hewes
• Bernie Sanders

Withdrawn

• Pete Buttigieg
• Julian Castro
• Deval Patrick
• Elizabeth Warren
• Marianne Williamson
• Andrew Yang

Formal withdrawal (ineligible)

• Michael Bennet
• Michael Bloomberg
• Cory Booker
• John Delaney
• Amy Klobuchar
• Tom Steyer

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation	Date updated	Dates polled	Joe Biden	Bernie Sanders	Tulsi Gabbard	Other/ Undecided
270 to Win^[7]	Mar 17, 2020	Mar 3–16, 2020		50.6%	29.4%	1.0%	19.0%
RealClear Politics^[8]	Mar 17, 2020	Mar 6–15, 2020		51.7%	33.7%	1.0%	13.6%
FiveThirtyEight^[9]	Mar 17, 2020	until Mar 16, 2020		51.6%	26.9%	1.1%	20.4%
Average				51.3%	30.0%	1.0%	17.7%

Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Joe Biden	Michael Bloomberg	Pete Buttigieg	Kamala Harris	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Andrew Yang	Other	Undecided
Swayable^[10]	Mar 16, 2020	1,167 (LV)	± 5.0%		53%	–	–	–	29%	–	–	19%	–
Marist/NBC News^[11]	Mar 10–15, 2020	523 (LV)	± 6.0%		53%	–	–	–	36%	–	–	8%	3%
913 (RV)		± 4.5%		50%	–	–	–	37%	–	–	9%	5%
Monmouth University^[12]	Mar 11–14, 2020	373 (LV)	± 5.1%		51%	5%	3%	–	31%	3%	–	2%	5%
Latino Decisions/Univision/ Arizona State University^[13]	Mar 6–11, 2020	541 (LV)	± 4.2%		57%	–	–	–	38%	–	–	–	5%
				51%	–	–	–	34%	–	–	6%	8%
	March 4–5, 2020	Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race
OH Predictive Insights^[14]	Mar 3–4, 2020	398 (LV)	± 4.9%		45%	12%	–	–	17%	13%	–	4%	9%
	March 1–2, 2020	Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
	February 11, 2020	New Hampshire primary Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
	Dec 3, 2019	Harris withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights^[15]	Oct 31 – Nov 8, 2019	260 (LV)	± 6.1%		29%	–	9%	5%	16%	18%	4%	19%	–
Emerson Polling^[16]	Oct 25–28, 2019	339	± 5.2%		28%	–	12%	4%	21%	21%	5%	7%	–
Siena Research/New York Times^[17]	Oct 13–26, 2019	209	–		24%	–	5%	3%	16%	15%	1%	1%	31%
Change Research^[18]	Sep 27–28, 2019	396 (LV)	–	15%	–	13%	4%	19%		35%	8%	7%	–
Bendixen&Amandi^[19]	Sep 9–12, 2019	250	± 4.3%		29%	–	5%	4%	18%	24%	2%	8%	10%
Zogby Analytics^[20]	May 23–29, 2019	197	± 7.0%		35%	–	6%	4%	16%	10%	0%	11%	–

Results

2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary^[21] ! Candidate! Votes! %! Delegates^[22]

Joe Biden	268,029	43.70	38
Bernie Sanders	200,456	32.70	29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	35,537	5.79	rowspan=11
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	24,868	4.05
Tulsi Gabbard	3,014	0.49
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	1,921	0.31
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	754	0.12
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	668	0.11
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	242	0.04
Henry Hewes	208	0.03
Other candidates	812	0.13
Other votes	4,942	0.81
Ineligible candidates Michael Bloomberg Amy Klobuchar Tom Steyer John Delaney Cory Booker Michael Bennet	71,90458,797 10,333 1,381 505 494 394	11.729.59 1.68 0.23 0.08 0.08 0.06
Total	613,355	100%	67

By county

County	Joe Biden		Bernie Sanders		Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†)		Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)		Tulsi Gabbard		Andrew Yang (withdrawn)		Julián Castro (withdrawn)		Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)		Rocky De La Fuente		Deval Patrick (withdrawn)		Henry Hewes		Michael A. Ellinger		Others		Margin		Total votes cast	Eligible voters	Voter turnout
	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%				data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%		%		%		%		%		%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%
	Apache		3,092		44.0%	2,523	35.9%	252	3.6%	143	2.0%	48	0.7%	36	0.5%	20	0.3%	25	0.4%	26	0.4%	22	0.3%	13	0.2%	10	0.1%	818	11.6%		569		8.1%	7,028	28,734	24.5%
	Cochise		4,123		41.7%	2,694	27.3%	678	6.9%	466	4.7%	93	0.9%	34	0.3%	22	0.2%	20	0.2%	26	0.3%	10	0.1%	8	0.1%	4	0.0%	1,710	17.3%		1,429		14.4%	9,888	20,356	48.6%
	Coconino	6,578	37.4%		7,650		43.5%	1,255	7.1%	527	3.0%	94	0.5%	64	0.4%	16	0.1%	23	0.1%	17	0.1%	13	0.1%	9	0.1%	5	0.0%	1,354	7.7%		–1,072		–6.1%	17,605	35,901	49.0%
	Gila		2,041		47.8%	928	21.7%	192	4.5%	181	4.2%	37	0.9%	25	0.6%	10	0.2%	24	0.6%	8	0.2%	3	0.0%	11	0.3%	2	0.1%	807	18.9%		1,113		26.1%	4,269	8,845	48.3%
	Graham		774		46.2%	420	25.0%	70	4.2%	44	2.6%	17	1.0%	14	0.8%	8	0.5%	5	0.3%	10	0.6%	0	0.0%	2	0.1%	0	0.0%	313	18.7%		354		21.1%	1,677	5,082	33.0%
	Greenlee		316		45.0%	138	19.6%	25	3.6%	30	4.3%	14	2.0%	6	0.9%	4	0.6%	1	0.1%	4	0.6%	0	0.0%	3	0.4%	1	0.1%	161	22.9%		178		25.3%	703	1,756	40.0%
	La Paz		323		44.8%	193	26.8%	29	4.0%	21	2.9%	6	0.8%	6	0.8%	5	0.7%	3	0.4%	2	0.3%	1	0.1%	1	0.1%	2	0.3%	129	17.9%		130		18.0%	721	2,282	31.6%
	Maricopa		153,707		42.9%	120,379	33.6%	20,584	5.7%	15,346	4.3%	1,620	0.4%	1,109	0.3%	345	0.1%	307	0.1%	297	0.1%	121	0.0%	99	0.0%	92	0.0%	44,384	12.4%		33,328		9.3%	358,390	732,376	48.9%
	Mohave		4,450		47.4%	2,142	22.8%	432	4.6%	493	5.3%	64	0.7%	38	0.4%	7	0.1%	18	0.2%	16	0.2%	7	0.1%	7	0.1%	5	0.4%	1,701	18.1%		2,308		24.6%	9,380	20,872	44.9%
	Navajo		3,585		44.3%	2,617	32.8%	316	3.9%	193	2.4%	54	0.7%	59	0.7%	14	0.2%	25	0.3%	18	0.2%	11	0.1%	14	0.2%	10	0.1%	1,169	14.5%		968		12.0%	8,085	25,215	32.1%
	Pima		60,622		45.3%	42,954	32.1%	8,602	6.4%	4,907	3.7%	613	0.5%	306	0.2%	149	0.1%	105	0.1%	88	0.1%	32	0.0%	20	0.0%	33	0.0%	15,378	11.5%		17,668		13.2%	133,809	237,568	56.3%
	Pinal		12,450		48.4%	6,658	25.9%	1,165	4.5%	1,030	4.0%	148	0.6%	106	0.4%	39	0.2%	33	0.1%	45	0.2%	6	0.0%	12	0.1%	3	0.0%	4,032	15.7%		5,792		22.5%	25,727	60,034	42.9%
	Santa Cruz		1,876		40.6%	1,547	33.5%	194	4.2%	131	2.8%	15	0.3%	18	0.4%	22	0.5%	12	0.3%	25	0.5%	2	0.0%	0	0.0%	6	0.1%	775	16.8%		329		7.1%	4,623	13,552	34.1%
	Yavapai		10,317		47.9%	5,717	26.5%	1,355	6.3%	1,015	4.7%	129	0.6%	56	0.3%	5	0.0%	42	0.2%	5	0.0%	3	0.0%	5	0.0%	3	0.0%	2,891	13.4%		4,600		21.4%	21,543	31,856	67.6%
	Yuma	3,775	38.1%		3,896		39.3%	388	3.9%	341	3.4%	62	0.6%	44	0.4%	88	0.9%	25	0.3%	41	0.4%	11	0.1%	4	0.0%	8	0.1%	1,224	12.4%		–121		–1.2%	9,907	31,914	31.0%
Totals	268,029	43.7%	200,456	32.7%	35,537	5.8%	24,868	4.1%	3,014	0.5%	1,921	0.3%	754	0.1%	668	0.1%	628	0.1%	242	0.0%	208	0.0%	184	0.0%	76,846	12.5%	67,573	11.0%	613,355	1,256,343	48.8%

By congressional district

Congressional district	Joe Biden		Bernie Sanders		Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†)		Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)		Tulsi Gabbard		Andrew Yang (withdrawn)		Julián Castro (withdrawn)		Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)		Rocky De La Fuente		Deval Patrick (withdrawn)		Henry Hewes		Michael A. Ellinger		Others		Margin		Total votes cast	Eligible voters	Voter turnout
	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%				data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%		%		%		%		%		%	data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"		data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;"	%
	1st		32,749		45.8%	22,336	31.2%	3,776	5.3%	2,472	3.5%	432	0.6%	302	0.4%	107	0.2%	119	0.2%	117	0.2%	53	0.1%	55	0.1%	33	0.1%	8,954	12.5%		10,413		14.6%	71,505	167,908	42.6%
	2nd		43,970		45.9%	28,927	30.2%	6,741	7.0%	3,814	4.0%	479	0.5%	240	0.3%	82	0.1%	88	0.1%	72	0.1%	30	0.0%	19	0.0%	18	0.0%	11,238	11.7%		15,043		15.7%	95,718	160,428	59.7%
	3rd	23,744	38.7%		24,766		40.4%	2,724	4.4%	1,595	2.6%	292	0.5%	180	0.3%	222	0.4%	72	0.1%	115	0.2%	34	0.1%	17	0.0%	31	0.1%	7,505	12.2%		−1,022		−1.7%	61,297	158,635	38.6%
	4th		22,338		47.4%	11,925	25.3%	2,550	5.4%	2,298	4.9%	293	0.6%	164	0.4%	42	0.1%	100	0.2%	61	0.1%	20	0.0%	31	0.1%	15	0.0%	7,291	15.5%		10,413		22.1%	47,128	90,296	52.2%
	5th		27,851		44.3%	19,636	31.3%	3,721	5.9%	3,020	4.8%	302	0.5%	210	0.3%	36	0.1%	58	0.1%	35	0.1%	8	0.0%	13	0.0%	13	0.0%	7,920	12.6%		8,215		13.1%	62,823	121,006	51.9%
	6th		34,295		47.4%	19,878	27.5%	4,240	5.9%	3,570	4.9%	347	0.5%	156	0.2%	33	0.1%	57	0.1%	34	0.1%	20	0.0%	15	0.0%	10	0.0%	9,676	13.4%		14,417		19.9%	72,331	129,893	55.7%
	7th	19,789	35.6%		24,701		44.4%	2,676	4.8%	1,572	2.8%	182	0.3%	191	0.3%	124	0.2%	42	0.1%	77	0.1%	27	0.1%	11	0.0%	23	0.0%	6,202	11.2%		−4,912		−8.8%	55,617	148,509	37.5%
	8th		30,594		46.8%	17,537	26.8%	3,420	5.2%	3,098	4.7%	334	0.5%	206	0.3%	59	0.1%	74	0.1%	59	0.1%	22	0.0%	28	0.0%	21	0.0%	9,985	15.3%		13,057		20.0%	65,437	123,996	52.8%
	9th		32,699		40.1%	30,750	37.7%	5,689	7.0%	3,429	4.2%	353	0.4%	272	0.3%	49	0.1%	58	0.1%	58	0.1%	28	0.0%	19	0.0%	20	0.0%	8,075	9.9%		1,949		2.4%	81,499	155,672	52.4%
Totals	268,029	43.7%	200,456	32.7%	35,537	5.8%	24,868	4.1%	3,014	0.5%	1,921	0.3%	754	0.1%	668	0.1%	628	0.1%	242	0.0%	208	0.0%	184	0.0%	76,846	12.5%	67,573	11.0%	613,355	1,256,343	48.8%

Analysis

Arizona was a hotly contested state throughout both the primary and general election seasons due to its rapidly diversifying electorate. A high concentration of Hispanic and Latino voters as well as an intense swing to the left in suburban areas and the Republican Party having moved to the right, strengthened Democratic support while drawing new divides in the Democratic Party.^[23] In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by a 14.9% margin;^[24] despite Sanders being trailing Biden significantly nationwide, he actually improved on his performance in Arizona in 2020, losing it by an 11.0% margin. This improvement was mostly attributable to improvements among Hispanic and Latino voters: Sanders performed well among that demographic throughout the primary as opposed to 2016, when Clinton handily carried regions with high densities of Hispanic voters.^[25] Per CNN exit polls, Biden won Hispanic voters 45-44 compared to white voters, who he won 51–32. Sanders won Yuma County, where 64.6% of the population are Hispanic or Latino, as well as Arizona's 3rd and 7th congressional districts; the former, home to Tucson, Yuma, and most of the southern border, is 65.1% Hispanic,^[26] while the latter, composing much of inner Phoenix, is 64.0% Hispanic.^[27] Nonetheless, Biden's performance represented a significant improvement among voters of these demographics from earlier in the primary, which was compounded by a strong performance in the state's suburbs. He won Maricopa County, which holds Phoenix and 61.6% of the population, by 33,328 votes, largely due to the Phoenix suburbs, which have been reliably Republican since the 1950s but have recently shifted to the left. He also won Pima County, the second largest county and home to Tucson, by 17,668 votes.

The results of the primary would be reflected in the general election: Biden would end up winning Arizona by 10,457 votes, the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He would also become the first to win crucial Maricopa County since Truman. His performance in predominantly-Hispanic areas in urban areas and along the southern border would also decline compared to 2016, though would be supplemented by a raw increase in voter turnout.^[28]

External links

• The Green Papers delegate allocation summary
• Arizona Democratic Party delegate selection plan
• FiveThirtyEight Arizona primary poll tracker

Notes and References

1. Web site: March 30, 2020. State of Arizona Official Canvass 2020 Presidential Preference Election – Mar 17, 2020. live. March 31, 2021. Arizona Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20201019044804/https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/PPE%20Canvass%20Signed%203.30.2020.pdf . October 19, 2020 .
2. Web site: Arizona Primary Polls. live. 2021-04-01. CNN. en. https://web.archive.org/web/20200228060615/https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/entrance-and-exit-polls . February 28, 2020 .
3. Web site: Early Voting Sites. live. 2021-02-21. Pima County Recorder. https://web.archive.org/web/20181005012859/https://www.recorder.pima.gov/EarlyVotingSites . October 5, 2018 .
4. Web site: Democratic Presidential Preference Election – Vote Centers. live. Maricopa County Recorder. https://web.archive.org/web/20200220225857/https://recorder.maricopa.gov/pdf/PPE2020EVSites.pdf . February 20, 2020 .
5. Web site: Arizona Democratic Delegation 2020. live. June 23, 2019. The Green Papers. https://web.archive.org/web/20170714112600/http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/AZ-D . July 14, 2017 .
6. Web site: Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses. The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. March 19, 2022.
7. https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/arizona-primary 270 to Win
8. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_democratic_primary-6898.html RealClear Politics
9. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/arizona/ FiveThirtyEight
10. https://swayable.com/insights/democratic-primaries-2020-march-17-states Swayable
11. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_AZ-NOS-and-Tables_2003160825.pdf Marist/NBC News
12. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_az_031620/ Monmouth University
13. https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Univision-CLAPR-ASU-AZ-Topline-.pdf Latino Decisions/Univision/
    Arizona State University
14. Web site: OH Predictive Insights . March 9, 2020 . March 12, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200312180126/https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/2020-arziona-democratic-primary/ . dead .
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16. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races Emerson Polling
17. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/us/politics/democrats-poll-moderates-battleground.html Siena Research/New York Times
18. https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/1de9b6_eda0d74b7add41b6851f0aace1e53705.pdf Change Research
19. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016d-410e-d547-a36f-67df39db0001 Bendixen&Amandi
20. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190615_National.xlsx Zogby Analytics
21. Web site: State of Arizona Official Canvass: 2020 Presidential Preference Election – Mar 17, 2020. Arizona Secretary of State. 30 March 2020. 14 October 2020.
22. Web site: 2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Arizona Democrat. The Green Papers. 4 July 2020.
23. Web site: Savicki. Drew. October 5, 2020. The Road to 270: Arizona. live. 2021-04-01. 270toWin. https://web.archive.org/web/20201008034405/https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/10/05/the-road-270-arizona_1108.html . October 8, 2020 .
24. Web site: April 4, 2016. State of Arizona Official Canvass – 2016 Presidential Preference Election – March 22, 2016. live. April 17, 2021. Arizona Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20160418135744/http://apps.azsos.gov:80/election/2016/PPE/canvass2016ppe.pdf . April 18, 2016 .
25. Web site: Klar. Rebecca. 2020-03-17. Biden wins Arizona primary, capping off victories in three states. live. 2021-04-17. The Hill. en. https://web.archive.org/web/20200318144444/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/487672-biden-declared-winner-of-arizona-primary . March 18, 2020 .
26. Web site: My Congressional District Arizona Congressional District 3. live. 2021-04-17. My Congressional District. United States Census Bureau. EN-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20181203222042/https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=04&cd=03 . December 3, 2018 .
27. Web site: My Congressional District Arizona Congressional District 7. live. 2021-04-17. My Congressional District. United States Census Bureau. EN-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20181226035339/https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=04&cd=07 . December 26, 2018 .
28. News: Collins. Keith. Fessenden. Ford. Gamio. Lazaro. Harris. Rich. Keefe. John. Lu. Denise. Lutz. Eleanor. Walker. Amy Schoenfeld. Watkins. Derek. Phoenix's Blue Wave Pushes Arizona Toward Biden. en-US. The New York Times. November 10, 2020 . 2021-04-17. 0362-4331.

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