2019 Uruguayan general election explained

Country:Uruguay
Previous Election:2014 Uruguayan presidential election
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2024 Uruguayan general election
Next Year:2024
Election Date:27 October 2019 (first round)
Registered:2,669,980
Turnout:90.13% (first round) 0.38pp
90.12% (second round) 1.54pp
Module:
Embed:yes
Election Name:Presidential election
Type:presidential
Image1:Lacalle Pou 2019.jpg
Nominee1:Luis Lacalle Pou
Party1:National Party (Uruguay)
Alliance1:Coalición Multicolor
Running Mate1:Beatriz Argimón
Popular Vote1:1,189,313
Percentage1:50.79%
Nominee2:Daniel Martínez
Party2:Socialist Party
Alliance2:Broad Front (Uruguay)
Running Mate2:Graciela Villar
Popular Vote2:1,152,271
Percentage2:49.21%
President
Before Election:Tabaré Vázquez
Before Party:Broad Front (Uruguay)
After Election:Luis Lacalle Pou
After Party:National Party (Uruguay)
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Embed:yes
Election Name:Parliamentary election
Seats For Election:All 99 seats in the Chamber of Representatives
All 30 seats in the Senate
Heading1:Chamber of Representatives
Party1:Broad Front (Uruguay)
Percentage1:40.49
Seats1:42
Last Election1:50
Party2:National Party (Uruguay)
Percentage2:29.70
Seats2:30
Last Election2:32
Party3:Colorado Party (Uruguay)
Percentage3:12.80
Seats3:13
Last Election3:13
Party4:Open Cabildo (Uruguay)
Percentage4:11.46
Seats4:11
Last Election4:new
Color4:
  1. FBC22B
Party5:Partido Ecologista Radical Intransigente
Percentage5:1.43
Seats5:1
Last Election5:0
Party6:Partido de la Gente
Percentage6:1.12
Seats6:1
Last Election6:new
Color6:
  1. 92D050
Party7:Independent Party (Uruguay)
Percentage7:1.01
Seats7:1
Last Election7:3
Heading8:Senate
Party8:Broad Front (Uruguay)
Percentage8:40.49
Seats8:13
Last Election8:15
Party9:National Party (Uruguay)
Percentage9:29.70
Seats9:10
Last Election9:10
Party10:Colorado Party (Uruguay)
Percentage10:12.80
Seats10:4
Last Election10:4
Party11:Open Cabildo (Uruguay)
Percentage11:11.46
Seats11:3
Last Election11:new
Color11:
  1. FBC22B

General elections were held in Uruguay on Sunday, 27 October 2019 to elect the President and General Assembly. As no presidential candidate received a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff election took place on 24 November.

In the 2014 elections, the left-wing Broad Front had won a third consecutive election with absolute majorities in both houses of the General Assembly. The Broad Front's term in office еarned support through the creation of a large welfare system, but at the same time was undermined by an increasing budget deficit, along with rising unemployment and a spike in violence. The election campaign focused primarily around the issue of crime, with each party proposing different solutions. A constitutional referendum on amendments proposed by opposition senator Jorge Larrañaga was held alongside the elections. The amendments proposed the introduction of a National Guard and tougher security measures.[1] [2]

As incumbent president Tabaré Vázquez was unable to seek re-election due to constitutional term limits, the Broad Front nominated former Montevideo mayor Daniel Martínez as its presidential candidate. The National Party nominated its 2014 candidate Luis Lacalle Pou, the Colorado Party nominated the economist Ernesto Talvi, and the new Open Cabildo party nominated former commander-in-chief of the Uruguayan Army, Guido Manini Ríos.

Heading into the elections, most opinion polls predicted a run-off between Martínez and Lacalle Pou, along with the loss of the Broad Front's congressional majority and the growth of Open Cabildo. In the first round of voting, the Broad Front saw its worst results since the 1999 elections, but Martínez still received the most votes in the 11-candidate field and qualified for the runoff along with Lacalle Pou, who subsequently received support from most of the eliminated opposition parties.[3] In the runoff, Lacalle Pou defeated Martínez by just over 37,000 votes in a tight race, with the final result only declared after the counting of absentee ballots. Martinez conceded defeat four days after the election, saying that the outstanding absentee ballots would not be enough to overcome Lacalle Pou's lead in preliminary results.[4]

The elections marked the first loss for the Broad Front in a presidential election since 1999, with Lacalle Pou becoming the first National Party president since his father, Luis Alberto Lacalle de Herrera, who held office from 1990 to 1995.

Background

The 2014 elections had resulted in a third consecutive victory for the Broad Front. Former president Tabaré Vázquez was returned to office for a second non-consecutive term, having previously served as president from 2004 to 2009. The Broad Front also won an absolute majority in the General Assembly. Vázquez was ineligible to run again due to constitutional term limits. As a result, the governing Broad Front had to nominate a new candidate.

The economy had seen continued growth since 2003, allowing the government to invest heavily in social programs, pensions and health care. However, improved poverty and inequality ratios came at the cost of a budget deficit that reached 4.8 percent of GDP by the end of August 2019. According to political analysts, the Broad Front was predicted to lose its congressional majority, which combined with an increase in the number of parties expected to win seats in Congress, would make coalition negotiations difficult.[5]

Electoral system

The elections were held using the double simultaneous vote method, whereby voters cast a single vote for the party of their choice for all three of the Presidency, the Senate and the Chamber of Representatives.

The President of Uruguay was elected using the two-round system, with a run-off held when no candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round. The 30 members of the Senate were elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The vice president, elected on the same ballot as the president, becomes president of the Senate, with their vote being the casting one when Senate votes are tied.[6] The 99 members of the Chamber of Representatives were elected by closed list proportional representation in 19 multi-member constituencies based on the departments. Seats were allocated using the highest averages method.[7]

Presidential candidates

Presidential primaries were held on 30 June to select the candidates:[8]

PartyCandidateIdeologyPrevious result
Votes (%)Seats
Broad FrontDaniel MartínezSocial democracy
Democratic socialism
47.81%
National PartyLuis Lacalle PouConservatism
Christian democracy
30.88%
Colorado PartyErnesto TalviLiberalism12.89%
Independent PartyPablo MieresChristian humanism
Christian democracy
3.09%
Popular UnityGonzalo AbellaMarxism1.13%
Partido Ecologista Radical IntransigenteCésar VegaGreen liberalism0.75%
Workers' PartyRafael FernándezTrotskyism0.14%
Party of the FolkEdgardo NovickConservative liberalism
Neoliberalism
Did not contest
Green Animalist PartyGustavo SalleGreen politics
Digital PartyDaniel GoldmanE-democracy
Open CabildoGuido Manini RíosRight-wing populism
National conservatism

Campaign slogans

CandidatePartyOriginal sloganEnglish translationRef
Daniel MartínezBroad FrontNo perder lo Bueno, hacerlo mejor"Don't lose what is good, improve it"[9]
Luis Lacalle PouNational PartyLo que nos une"What unites us"[10]
Ernesto TalviColorado PartyUn pequeño país modelo"A small model country"[11]
Edgardo NovickParty of the FolkTolerancia Cero"Zero Tolerance"[12]

Opinion polls

Polling firmFieldwork dateFAPNPCCAPGPIOthersBlank/UndecidedLead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:"data-sort-type="number" style="background:"data-sort-type="number" style="background:"data-sort-type="number" style="background:#FBC22B"data-sort-type="number" style="background:#92D050"data-sort-type="number" style="background:"
Opción Consultores[13] October 201933%25%10%12%1%8%
Radar[14] October 201939%21%16%12%0.8%1.1%8%
Opción Consultores[15] September 201929%24%15%12%2%2%8%
Factum[16] August 201937%26%19%9%2%2%18%7%
Cifra[17] February 201934%27%14%3%2%-2%18%-7%
Factum[18] February 201938%30%16%5%4%2%5%8%
Radar[19] January/February 201937%28%13%3%2%1%2%7%7%9%
Radar[20] December 201833%27%12%4%3%1%9%9%6%
Opción Consultores[21] December 201826%27%12%5%5%2%. 11%12%1%
Equipos[22] December 2018 30% 34% 11% 1% 2% 1% 1%7%13%4%
Factum[23] November 2018 34%30% 16% 7% 6% 2% 5% 4%
Radar[24] November 2018 32%26% 13% 4% 3% 2%10%10%6%
Cifra[25] October 2018 36%31% 9% 5% 6% 3% 10% 5%
Factum[26] August 2018 34%30% 12% 7% 6% 2% 9% 4%
Radar[27] August 2018 30%30%8% 6% 2% 3% 11% 10%
Cifra[28] August 2018 27%26% 4% 3% 4% 1% 35%1%
Opción Consultores[29] July 2018 28% 31%9% 8% 4% 2% 8% 10%3%
Radar[30] February 2018 33%28% 7% 2% 2% 3% 11% 13%5%
Factum[31] April 201731%30% 6% 9% 4% 2% 18% 1%

Results

On 25 November, preliminary results in the runoff election showed Lacalle Pou narrowly ahead by 28,666 votes over Martínez, which delayed the announcement of a winner as 35,229 absentee vote needed to be counted.[32] [4] However, on 28 November, while these ballots were still being counted, Martínez conceded the race after concluding that they would not reverse Lacalle Pou's preliminary lead.[4] On 30 November, final votes counts confirmed Lacalle Pou as the winner over Martínez.[33]

By department

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: Crime top concern in Uruguay's general election . 27 October 2019 . 2 November 2019 . en-GB.
  2. News: Uruguay's presidential poll to go to second round . 2019-10-28 . 2019-11-02 . en-GB.
  3. Web site: Lea aquí el borrador del acuerdo de la coalición de los partidos de la oposición . Diario EL PAIS Uruguay . es . 2019-11-01.
  4. News: Uruguay election: Lacalle wins presidency as rival concedes . . 28 November 2019. 12 October 2020.
  5. Web site: Uruguays left-wing party faces its toughest election in 15 years. 25 October 2019. Buenos Aires Times. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20191230000413/https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/uruguays-left-wing-party-faces-its-toughest-election-in-15-years.phtml. 30 December 2019.
  6. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2342_B.htm Electoral system
  7. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2341_B.htm Electoral system
  8. http://www.corteelectoral.gub.uy/gxpsites/page.aspx Comunicado de prensa de la Corte Electoral - 27 de julio de 2018
  9. Web site: Eleições presidenciais: Para onde vai o Uruguai?. 2019-10-27. Revista Fórum. pt-BR. 2019-11-28.
  10. News: Daniel Martínez reconoce la victoria de Luis Lacalle en las elecciones presidenciales de Uruguay. BBC. 2019-11-28. 2019-11-28. en-GB.
  11. Web site: Muñoz apuntó contra slogan de Talvi: "Nosotros queremos un modelo bien grande". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. es. 2019-11-28.
  12. Web site: Con 6% de intención de voto, Cabildo Abierto se posiciona como la cuarta fuerza política. Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. es. 2019-11-28.
  13. Web site: Intención de Voto Octubre 2019. es.
  14. Web site: Crece Manini a un 12%, caen Martínez, Lacalle y Talvi en ese orden. es. 4 October 2019. 6 October 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191006033302/http://www.gruporadar.com.uy/01/02-10-2019-difundido-en-vtv-noticias-crece-manini-a-un-12-caen-martinez-lacalle-y-talvi-en-ese-orden/. dead.
  15. Web site: Encuesta de Opción: crecieron levemente el FA y el PN, descendió el PC. es.
  16. Web site: Escenarios de Balotaje.
  17. Web site: Inicio de sesión en El País. sso.elpais.com.uy. 18 March 2019.
  18. Web site: Factum: FA 38%; PN 30%; PC 16%; PGente 5%, PI 4%,UP 2%. 26 February 2019. 2019.com.uy. 18 March 2019.
  19. Web site: Encuesta de Grupo Radar: Creció la intención de voto del Frente Amplio - VTV Noticias. 12 February 2019. vtv.com.uy. 18 March 2019.
  20. Web site: Para Radar, el FA está primero en intención de voto y a seis puntos del Partido Nacional. Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. 18 March 2019.
  21. Web site: Partido Nacional supera al Frente Amplio, según la última encuesta de Opción Consultores. subrayado.com.uy. 18 March 2019.
  22. Web site: Encuesta: FA cierra 2018 abajo de los blancos. Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. 18 March 2019.
  23. Web site: Colorados duplican su intención de voto en último semestre tras retorno de Sanguinetti. El Observador. 18 March 2019.
  24. Web site: 14-11-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) Vuelve a crecer el FA, y Martínez supera a Lacalle por 9 puntos. Crece fuertemente el PC « Grupo Radar. gruporadar.com.uy. 18 March 2019. 20 March 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190320201850/http://www.gruporadar.com.uy/01/?p=2343. dead.
  25. Web site: INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY" - Cifra. cifra.com.uy. 18 March 2019.
  26. Web site: Los movimientos políticos que impactan en la intención de voto. Encuesta Nacional Factum del tercer trimestre de 2018 . es . Factum. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20180913002506/http://factum.uy/analisis/2018/ana180910.php. 2018-09-13.
  27. Web site: 23-08-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) Empate entre FA y PN, pero Martínez supera a Lacalle por 5 puntos. Crece la Oposición en su conjunto « Grupo Radar. gruporadar.com.uy. 18 March 2019. 5 March 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190305221559/http://www.gruporadar.com.uy/01/?p=2258. dead.
  28. Web site: CIFRA: Lideran los Indecisos NS/NC y en blanco con 35%; FA 27%; PN 26%; PC y PI 4%; y 3% PGente. 8 August 2018. 2019.com.uy. 18 March 2019.
  29. Web site: Elecciones: el Partido Nacional es el que tiene mayor aprobación, según encuesta de Opción. El Observador. 18 March 2019.
  30. Web site: 08-02-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) El FA supera al PN por 5 puntos en intención de voto por partido. « Grupo Radar. gruporadar.com.uy. 18 March 2019. 27 August 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180827175253/http://www.gruporadar.com.uy/01/?p=2146. dead.
  31. Web site: Intención de voto por partido. Primer trimestre 2017 . es. Factum. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20170507092449/http://factum.uy/encuestas/2017/enc170427.php#. 2017-05-07.
  32. Web site: Elecciones en Uruguay: con el 100% de las mesas escrutadas, ¿cómo terminó la votación?. La Nación. 2019-11-25. 2019-11-25. es. https://web.archive.org/web/20191128093309/https://www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/elecciones-uruguay-100-mesas-escrutadas-como-termino-nid2309462. 28 November 2019. dead.
  33. News: Lacalle won with 48.8% and Martínez obtained 47.3% in the 2019 ballot: look at the results. 30 November 2019. El Pais. 1 December 2019.