2019 Okinawan referendum explained

2019 Okinawan referendum
Location:	Okinawa, Japan
Country:	Okinawa
On the central government's plan to conduct landfill work at Henoko, Nago for the planned relocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma
Choice1:	Support
Percentage1:	19.10
Choice2:	Oppose
Percentage2:	72.15
Choice3:	No opinion either way
Percentage3:	8.75

A referendum was held in Okinawa Prefecture on 24 February 2019. The referendum asked whether voters approved or opposed the landfill work at Henoko Bay for the construction of a new United States Marine Corps base. This is the second prefecture-wide referendum in Okinawa, the first being the 1996 referendum on the reduction of US military presence. Governor Denny Tamaki announced the referendum in November 2018, fulfilling his manifesto promise from his successful campaign for governor.^[1]

The Okinawan electorate voted to overwhelmingly reject the central government's Henoko move plan. 72% of Okinawan voters opposed the plan, with 19% supporting the plan. The Oppose vote also passed the 25% electorate threshold, which means the governor is obliged to respect the result and to convey it to the Prime Minister of Japan and the President of the United States. However, the central government is not legally obliged to respect the result.^{[2] [3]}

Referendum question and options

The ballot asked voters to decide:

Voters had three options: Support, Oppose and "No opinion either way". It was initially proposed that the referendum had two straight options: Support or Oppose. 5 conservative-aligned mayors of Okinawa City, Uruma, Ginowan, Miyakojima and Ishigaki protested at this plan and threatened to exclude their cities from the referendum. A compromise was reached in January to include the third "No opinion either way" option. The dispute caused a delay on the preparations for the vote in the 5 municipalities.^[4] Although a separate voting date for those municipalities was expected initially, the referendum preparations there were finished on time and they will hold the referendum on the same day as the rest of the prefecture.^[5]

Early voting was available from 15 to 23 February.^[6]

Petition

On 8 December 2018, Okinawan-Hawaiian activist Robert Kajiwara created a petition titled, "Stop the landfill of Henoko/Oura Bay until a referendum can be held in Okinawa" on the White House's We the People petitioning portal. On 18 December, the petition got 100,343 signatures,^[7] reaching the necessary number of signatures for it to be reviewed and receive a response by the White House. The petition was drawn to attention by multiple individuals who signed it. People such as Brian May, Rola, Ryuichi Sakamoto, Daisuke Muramoto, Ryucheru, and others have openly expressed their support.^[8] The petition received over 200,000 signatures by the end of January.^[9] As of February 24 (date of referendum), the White House has not given a response.

Kajiwara was detained and interrogated by Japanese immigration officers when he came to Japan in February 2019 to campaign in the referendum.^[10]

Endorsements

Support

Parties

• Liberal Democratic Party

Individuals

• Kosaburo Nishime, member of the House of Representatives for Okinawa 4th district.^[11]

Oppose

Parties

• Constitutional Democratic Party^{[12] [13]}

Individuals

• Denny Tamaki, incumbent governor of Okinawa
• Ryuichi Sakamoto, composer^[14]
• Brian May, guitarist of Queen^[15]
• Rola, model and actress^[16]

No opinion either way

Opinion polling

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation	Sample size	Support	Oppose	No opinion either way	Undecided	Lead
data-sort-value="2019-02-24" style="background:#D5D5D5"	24 Feb 2019	Results	605,385	19.10%	72.15%	8.75%		53.05%
data-sort-value="2019-02-17"	16–17 Feb 2019	Asahi Shimbun	1,125	16%	59%	21%	4%	38%
data-sort-value="2019-02-17"	16–17 Feb 2019	Kyodo News		15.8%	67.6%	13.1%	0.5%	51.8%

Results

Choice	Votes	%
Support	114,933	19.10%
Oppose	434,273	72.15%
No opinion either way	52,682	8.75%
Valid votes	601,888	99.42%
Invalid or blank votes	3,497	0.58%
Total votes	605,385	100%
Registered voters and turnout	1,153,591	52.48%
align=left colspan=3	Source: Okinawa Prefectural Government Asahi Shimbun

Breakdown

Division	Subdivision
		Support		Oppose		No opinion either way		Valid votes		Invalid votes		Turnout^[17]
		Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Total	%
Cities	Naha	23,372	17.15	102,348	75.08	10,590	7.77	136,310	99.53	650	0.47	136,960	53.44
	Ginowan	9,643	24.36	26,439	66.80	3,500	8.84	39,582	99.48	206	0.52	39,788	51.81
	Ishigaki	3,566	20.99	12,165	71.60	1,259	7.41	16,990	99.14	148	0.86	17,138	44.63
	Urasoe	9,801	20.21	34,498	71.14	4,192	8.64	48,491	99.58	203	0.42	48,694	54.79
	Nago	4,455	18.00	18,077	73.04	2,216	8.95	24,748	99.46	135	0.54	24,883	50.47
	Itoman	4,523	18.35	17,958	72.84	2,174	8.82	24,655	99.48	129	0.52	24,784	52.13
	Okinawa	10,963	19.99	38,571	70.33	5,305	9.67	54,839	99.36	355	0.64	55,194	49.88
	Tomigusuku	5,041	18.73	19,504	72.48	2,365	8.79	26,910	99.44	151	0.56	27,061	55.44
	Uruma	9,757	20.17	33,891	70.05	4,734	9.78	48,382	99.29	347	0.71	48,729	50.28
	Miyakojima	3,228	19.31	12,057	72.12	1,434	8.58	16,719	99.40	101	0.60	16,820	38.48
	Nanjō	3,419	17.73	14,303	74.17	1,562	8.10	19,284	99.18	159	0.82	19,443	56.05
	Cities total	87,768	19.21	329,811	72.18	39,331	8.61	456,910	99.44	2,584	0.56	459,494	51.51
Towns and villages	Kunigami District	5,552	20.33	19,155	70.13	2,607	9.54	27,314	99.25	206	0.75	27,520	52.66
	Kunigami	574	28.31	1,199	59.24	252	12.45	2,024	99.41	12	0.59	2,036	51.82
	Ōgimi	195	12.85	1,220	80.37	103	6.79	1,518	99.15	13	0.85	1,531	58.04
	Higashi	201	23.40	559	65.08	99	11.53	859	98.28	15	1.72	874	57.24
	Nakijin	646	14.53	3,430	77.69	339	7.68	4,415	99.24	34	0.76	4,449	58.12
	Motobu	1,045	19.76	3,707	70.09	537	10.15	5,289	98.99	54	1.01	5,343	49.33
	Onna	881	20.54	3,048	71.05	361	8.41	4,290	99.31	30	0.69	4,320	51.70
	Ginoza	488	17.92	1,921	70.55	314	11.53	2,723	99.09	25	0.91	2,748	59.64
	Kin	989	22.83	2,949	68.07	394	9.10	4,332	99.59	18	0.41	4,350	48.84
	Ie	534	28.65	1,122	60.19	208	11.16	1,864	99.73	5	0.27	1,869	49.07
	Nakagami District	12,613	18.36	49,914	72.65	6,175	8.99	68,702	99.43	391	0.57	69,093	56.43
	Yomitan	3,145	17.66	12,906	72.49	1,753	9.85	17,804	99.49	92	0.51	17,896	55.80
	Kadena	1,154	20.56	3,897	69.42	563	10.03	5,614	98.99	57	1.01	5,671	52.53
	Chatan	2,380	20.09	8,372	70.67	1,095	9.24	11,847	99.55	54	0.45	11,901	53.83
	Kitanakagusuku	1,423	18.48	5,629	73.10	648	8.42	7,700	99.30	54	0.70	7,754	57.58
	Nakagusuku	1,774	18.99	6,783	72.59	787	8.42	9,344	99.39	57	0.61	9,401	57.35
	Nishihara	2,737	16.70	12,327	75.20	1,329	8.11	16,393	99.53	77	0.47	16,470	59.67
	Shimajiri District	8,111	17.69	33,518	73.11	4,218	9.20	45,847	99.36	297	0.64	46,144	56.73
	Yonabaru	1,562	18.34	6,166	72.38	791	9.29	8,519	99.34	57	0.66	8,576	56.41
	Haebaru	2,843	16.39	12,960	74.69	1,548	8.92	17,351	99.42	101	0.58	17,452	58.87
	Tokashiki	101	26.44	193	48.25	52	13.61	382	99.48	2	0.52	384	66.78
	Zamami	103	18.49	381	68.40	73	13.11	557	98.41	9	1.59	566	72.66
	Aguni	58	19.80	198	67.58	37	12.63	293	97.99	6	2.01	299	50.76
	Tonaki	60	29.27	125	60.98	20	9.76	205	98.56	3	1.44	208	62.84
	Minamidaitō	136	28.81	274	58.05	62	13.14	472	98.54	7	1.46	479	49.23
	Kitadaitō	78	32.77	109	45.80	51	21.43	238	99.58	1	0.42	239	52.64
	Iheya	169	30.95	298	54.58	79	14.47	546	98.38	9	1.62	555	56.98
	Izena	205	34.86	307	52.21	76	12.93	588	99.16	5	0.84	593	51.34
	Kumejima	573	18.01	2,307	72.50	302	9.49	3,182	99.34	21	0.66	3,203	49.57
	Yaese	2,223	16.45	10,164	75.21	1,127	8.34	13,514	99.44	76	0.56	13,590	56.17
	Miyako District	133	31.52	254	60.19	35	8.29	422	100.00	0	0.00	422	50.36
	Tarama	133	31.52	254	60.19	35	8.29	422	100.00	0	0.00	422	50.36
	Yaeyama District	756	28.07	1,621	60.19	217	10.93	2,693	99.30	28	1.03	2,721	57.39
	Taketomi	520	26.20	1,248	62.87	99	13.98	1,985	98.06	14	0.70	1,999	59.02
	Yonaguni	236	33.33	373	52.68	316	11.73	708	98.97	14	1.94	722	53.32
	Towns and villages total	27,165	18.74	104,462	72.05	13,351	9.21	144,978	99.37	922	0.63	145,900	55.77
Total		114,933	19.10	396,632	72.15	52,682	8.75	720,210	99.42	3,506	0.58	605,394	52.48
Source: Results Turnout Election information website

Aftermath

The day following the referendum, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that while the central government respected the result, construction works at Henoko would continue. This statement was reaffirmed by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga and Minister of Defense Takeshi Iwaya.^[18] Construction works at Henoko also restarted straight away, causing indignation among the local populace who voted heavily to oppose it.^[19]

Notes and References

1. News: Okinawa decides to hold Feb. 24 referendum on U.S. base issue. Kazuyuki. Ito. Asahi Shimbun. 27 November 2018. 28 January 2019. 14 October 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191014171337/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201811270038.html. dead.
2. News: 辺野古埋め立て「反対」が7割超え　知事の得票上回る43万票　沖縄県民投票、投票率は52.48％. Okinawa Times. 25 February 2019. 25 February 2019. Japanese.
3. News: 72% of Okinawa voters oppose work off Henoko for U.S. base. Asahi Shimbun. 25 February 2019. 25 February 2019. 11 November 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191111184706/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201902250016.html. dead.
4. News: 3-answer ballot approved in Okinawa, all cities will vote. Ryuichi. Yamashita. Kazuyuki. Ito. Asahi Shimbun. 25 January 2019. 28 January 2019. 10 September 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190910083105/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201901250049.html. dead.
5. News: 辺野古移設　沖縄県民投票、24日全県で　宜野湾など3市、参加表明. Mainichi Shimbun. 2 February 2019. 21 February 2019.
6. News: Early voting under way in Okinawa on key U.S. base issue. Asahi Shimbun. 15 February 2019. 21 February 2019. 14 October 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191014171342/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201902150040.html. dead.
7. Web site: White House petition to halt Henoko construction reaches 100,000 signature goal in 10 days. Ryukyu Shimpo - Okinawa, Japanese newspaper, local news. en-US. 2019-02-24.
8. Web site: 「米国政府動かす男」R・カジワラさん、大阪入管に屈辱の拘束—辺野古基地問題で来日、超党派議員と面談（志葉玲） - Yahoo!ニュース. Yahoo!ニュース 個人. ja. 2019-02-24. https://web.archive.org/web/20190224174028/https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/shivarei/20190220-00115487/. 24 February 2019. dead.
9. Web site: Marianas Variety - Okinawa petition to save Henoko Bay reaches over 200,000 signatures. www.mvariety.com. 2019-02-24. 3 February 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190203203050/http://www.mvariety.com/regional-news/110122-okinawa-petition-to-save-henoko-bay-reaches-over-200-000-signatures. dead.
10. News: US man who petitioned to halt Henoko landfill questioned 2 hrs by Japan immigration. Jun. Ida. Mainichi Shimbun. 21 February 2019. 24 February 2019.
11. News: Anti-U.S. base moves heat up as referendum in Okinawa looms. Kaigo. Narisawa. Sei. Ito. Kazuyuki. Ito. Asahi Shimbun. 18 February 2019. 2 March 2019.
12. News: 立憲民主党が辺野古新基地反対を表明　沖縄県連の発足で枝野氏が会見　県知事選は玉城デニー氏を支援へ. Okinawa Times. 30 August 2018. 28 January 2019. Japanese.
13. News: 県民投票、対抗手段は「リコールと訴訟」　立憲・枝野氏. Tatsurou. Kawai. Asahi Shimbun. 30 January 2019. 28 January 2019. Japanese.
14. News: Fearless Ryuichi Sakamoto won't stay silent on Okinawa base. Hiroki. Ito. Asahi Shimbun. 9 January 2019. 28 January 2019. 13 September 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190913084245/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201901090065.html. dead.
15. News: Queen guitarist May seeks signatures for petition against Okinawa base transfer work. Maki. Nakajima. Mainichi Shimbun. 7 January 2019. 28 January 2019.
16. News: 203,800 signatures collected for White House petition to halt US base work in Okinawa. Hiroya. Miyagi. Shihoko. Abe. Mainichi Shimbun. 9 January 2019. 28 January 2019.
17. Web site: https://www.pref.okinawa.lg.jp/site/chijiko/kentohyo/documents/touhyou00.pdf. ja:県民投票投票確定. 沖縄県. 2 March 2019. Japanese.
18. News: Abe moves ahead with base work in Okinawa after 'no' referendum. Asahi Shimbun. 25 February 2019. 26 February 2019. 14 September 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190914090217/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201902250039.html. dead.
19. News: 埋め立て「反対」の民意が示されたのに...　県民投票から一夜明け、辺野古の工事進む. Okinawa Times. 25 February 2019. 26 February 2019. Japanese.