| Election Name: | 2019 Navarrese regional election |
| Country: | Navarre |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2015 Navarrese regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2015 |
| Next Election: | 2023 Navarrese regional election |
| Next Year: | 2023 |
| Outgoing Members: | 9th Parliament of Navarre |
| Elected Members: | 10th Parliament of Navarre |
| Seats For Election: | All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre |
| Majority Seats: | 26 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 511,225 2.0% |
| Turnout: | 350,362 (68.5%) 0.2 pp |
| Election Date: | 26 May 2019 |
| Leader1: | Javier Esparza |
| Party1: | Navarra Suma |
| Leader Since1: | 30 November 2014 |
| Last Election1: | 17 seats, 34.3% |
| Seats1: | 20 |
| Seat Change1: | 3 |
| Popular Vote1: | 127,346 |
| Percentage1: | 36.6% |
| Swing1: | 2.3 pp |
| Leader2: | María Chivite |
| Party2: | PSN–PSOE |
| Leader Since2: | 19 October 2014 |
| Last Election2: | 7 seats, 13.4% |
| Seats2: | 11 |
| Seat Change2: | 4 |
| Popular Vote2: | 71,838 |
| Percentage2: | 20.6% |
| Swing2: | 7.2 pp |
| Leader3: | Uxue Barkos |
| Party3: | Geroa Bai |
| Leader Since3: | 3 October 2014 |
| Last Election3: | 9 seats, 15.8% |
| Seats3: | 9 |
| Seat Change3: | 0 |
| Popular Vote3: | 60,323 |
| Percentage3: | 17.3% |
| Swing3: | 1.5 pp |
| Leader4: | Bakartxo Ruiz |
| Party4: | EH Bildu |
| Leader Since4: | 30 May 2018 |
| Last Election4: | 8 seats, 14.2% |
| Seats4: | 7 |
| Seat Change4: | 1 |
| Popular Vote4: | 50,631 |
| Percentage4: | 14.5% |
| Swing4: | 0.3 pp |
| Leader5: | Mikel Buil |
| Party5: | Podemos (Spanish political party) |
| Leader Since5: | 27 November 2018 |
| Last Election5: | 7 seats, 13.7% |
| Seats5: | 2 |
| Seat Change5: | 5 |
| Popular Vote5: | 16,518 |
| Percentage5: | 4.7% |
| Swing5: | 9.0 pp |
| Leader6: | Marisa de Simón |
| Party6: | Izquierda-Ezkerra |
| Leader Since6: | 9 March 2019 |
| Last Election6: | 2 seats, 3.7% |
| Seats6: | 1 |
| Seat Change6: | 1 |
| Popular Vote6: | 10,472 |
| Percentage6: | 3.0% |
| Swing6: | 0.7 pp |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Uxue Barkos |
| Before Party: | Geroa Bai |
| After Election: | María Chivite |
| After Party: | PSN–PSOE |
The 2019 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.
Ahead of the election, the three main right-from-centre parties—namely, Navarrese People's Union (UPN), the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs)—signed an electoral alliance under the Navarra Suma (NA+) brand,[1] [2] in order to maximize their options against the incumbent government, formed by Geroa Bai (GBai), EH Bildu and Izquierda-Ezkerra (I–E) with external support from Podemos, which in the previous election had ousted UPN from power after 19 years of uninterrupted rule. Concurrently, the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) under María Chivite was on the rise, benefitting from a national bandwagon effect for the party following the general election held only one month earlier, on 28 April.
The election saw a victory for the NA+ alliance, which was able to secure more seats than the incumbent government (20 to 19). In particular, the collapse in the Podemos's vote share benefitted the PSN–PSOE, which scored its best result since 2007. There was speculation that UPN would be able to access the regional government through an agreement or consent from the PSN, but Chivite opted instead to secure the support of GBai, Podemos and I–E, as well as EH Bildu's tactical abstention, to become the first Socialist president of Navarre since Javier Otano stepped down from the office in 1996.
The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[3] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Navarrese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish; Castilian: Voto rogado).[4]
The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.[5]
The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 24 May 2019. The election decree was required to be published in the BON no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 23 June 2019.[3] [5] [6]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[3]
The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the BON, setting the election date for 26 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 19 June.[7]
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.[8]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group | UPN | 15 | 15 | ||
| Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group | Zabaltzen | 8 | 9 | ||
| EAJ/PNV | 1 | ||||
| EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group | EH Bildu | 8 | 8 | ||
| We Can–Now Yes Parliamentary Group | Orain Bai | 4 | 7 | ||
| Podemos | 3 | ||||
| Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group | PSN–PSOE | 7 | 7 | ||
| Mixed Group | PP | 2 | 4 | ||
| I–E (n) | 2 | ||||
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[5] [6]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||||||
| NA+ | Javier Esparza | Regionalism Christian democracy Conservatism Liberalism | 34.33% | [9] [10] [11] | ||||||
| GBai | Uxue Barkos | Basque nationalism Social democracy | 15.83% | [12] | ||||||
| EH Bildu | Bakartxo Ruiz | Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism | 14.25% | [13] | ||||||
| Podemos | Mikel Buil | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | 13.67% | [14] | ||||||
| PSN–PSOE | María Chivite | Social democracy | 13.37% | [15] | ||||||
| I–E (n) | Marisa de Simón | Socialism Communism | 3.69% | [16] | ||||||
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | 68.5 | 17.3 | 14.5 | 4.7 | 20.6 | 3.0 | – | 1.3 | 36.6 | 16.0 | |||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[17] | 22–23 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.4 | 15.2 | 9.1 | 18.0 | 4.1 | – | 3.1 | 31.2 | 12.8 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[18] | 21–22 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.3 | 15.1 | 8.9 | 18.5 | 4.1 | – | 2.9 | 31.1 | 12.6 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[19] | 20–21 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.4 | 15.2 | 9.0 | 18.5 | 4.0 | – | 3.0 | 31.0 | 12.5 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[20] | 19–20 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.3 | 15.1 | 9.1 | 18.7 | 3.9 | – | 2.9 | 30.7 | 12.0 | ||||
| NC Report/La Razón[21] [22] [23] | 19 May 2019 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 20.1 | ? | – | ? | 33.7 | 13.6 | ||||
| inPactos[24] [25] | 17–19 May 2019 | 1,200 | ? | 17.0 | 13.0 | ? | 17.5 | 3.0 | – | 3.3 | 34.0 | 16.5 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[26] | 16–19 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.9 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 18.0 | 4.4 | – | 3.7 | 29.7 | 10.8 | ||||
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[27] | 17 May 2019 | ? | ? | 17.6 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 18.4 | 5.2 | – | 1.0 | 35.3 | 16.9 | ||||
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[28] [29] | 17 May 2019 | 900 | 70 | 20.6 | 16.2 | 8.7 | 14.9 | 5.3 | – | 4.4 | 28.8 | 8.2 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[30] | 13–16 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.6 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 19.5 | 3.7 | – | 3.1 | 30.1 | 10.6 | ||||
| Gizaker/EiTB[31] | 14–15 May 2019 | 650 | 70.0 | 18.5 | 16.9 | 10.3 | 15.2 | 3.4 | – | 3.5 | 31.0 | 12.5 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[32] | 10–13 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.5 | 15.6 | 8.4 | 19.5 | 4.0 | – | 3.1 | 29.6 | 10.1 | ||||
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[33] | 6–13 May 2019 | 1,217 | 71 | 16.9 | 14.5 | ? | 18.0 | 3.8 | – | 2.6 | 34.8 | 16.8 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[34] | 7–10 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.2 | 16.1 | 7.9 | 19.9 | 4.4 | – | 3.0 | 29.3 | 9.4 | ||||
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[35] [36] | 7–9 May 2019 | 1,200 | 71.5 | 19.8 | 15.3 | 9.6 | 16.6 | 4.1 | – | 4.3 | 30.0 | 10.2 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[37] | 4–7 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.7 | 16.0 | 7.6 | 19.3 | 4.6 | – | 3.2 | 29.5 | 10.2 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[38] | 29 Apr–4 May 2019 | ? | ? | 18.0 | 16.6 | 7.1 | 19.5 | 4.9 | – | 2.9 | 29.9 | 10.4 | ||||
| April 2019 general election | 28 Apr 2019 | 72.5 | 6.1 | 12.7 | 25.8 | 18.6 | 4.8 | 29.3 | 4.5 | |||||||
| CIS[39] | 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 | 381 | ? | 14.0 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 21.2 | 4.4 | – | – | 30.2 | 9.0 | ||||
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[40] | 8–15 Apr 2019 | 800 | 71–74 | 17.6 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 17.1 | ? | – | ? | 34.7 | 17.1 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[41] | 31 Mar–7 Apr 2019 | ? | ? | 20.2 | 15.2 | 6.9 | 17.4 | 4.9 | – | 2.3 | 31.3 | 11.1 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[42] | 24–31 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 20.0 | 15.3 | 7.0 | 17.7 | 5.1 | – | 2.3 | 30.6 | 10.6 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[43] | 17–24 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 19.9 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 18.6 | 4.7 | – | 2.3 | 30.5 | 10.6 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[44] | 10–17 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 19.5 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 18.3 | 4.7 | – | 2.6 | 30.5 | 11.0 | ||||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[45] | 3–10 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 25.9 | 19.4 | 15.0 | 7.4 | 18.3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | – | 2.4 | – | 6.5 | ||
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[46] | 22 Feb–3 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 26.0 | 18.8 | 15.0 | 19.3 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 2.7 | – | 6.7 | ||||
| Gizaker/EiTB[47] | 23 Nov–3 Dec 2018 | 650 | ? | 23.5 | 23.0 | 15.4 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 7.7 | 6.6 | – | 1.1 | – | 0.5 | |
| GAD3/Navarra.com[48] | 16–18 Oct 2018 | 806 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | ? | |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[49] [50] | 3–10 Oct 2018 | 955 | ? | 25.9 | 18.4 | 14.3 | 6.4 | 16.3 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | – | – | – | 7.5 | |
| Telwind/Grupo Noticias[51] [52] | 3–4 Sep 2018 | 1,200 | 68.6 | 25.4 | 19.9 | 14.9 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | – | – | – | 5.5 | |
| SyM Consulting[53] [54] | 5–6 Jun 2018 | 700 | 66.1 | 24.3 | 15.4 | 14.5 | 5.3 | 20.0 | 2.4 | 5.9 | 7.6 | – | – | – | 4.3 | |
| GBai[55] | 6 Jun 2018 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | ? | |
| Gizaker/EiTB[56] | 14–21 May 2018 | 600 | ? | 24.8 | 19.6 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 13.7 | 1.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | – | – | – | 5.2 | |
| SyM Consulting[57] [58] | 8–10 Mar 2018 | 1,100 | 69.6 | 23.9 | 17.1 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 8.6 | – | – | – | 6.8 | |
| inPactos[59] [60] [61] | 15–27 Jan 2018 | 515 | 70 | 28.0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | – | – | – | 10.0 | |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[62] [63] | 25 Sep–8 Oct 2017 | 900 | 70 | 28.3 | 15.3 | 16.5 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | – | – | – | 11.8 | |
| Gizaker/EiTB[64] | 16–20 May 2017 | 600 | ? | 25.2 | 20.5 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | – | – | – | – | 4.7 | |
| Telwind/Grupo Noticias[65] [66] | 3–9 May 2017 | 1,200 | ? | 26.7 | 18.0 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 | – | – | – | 8.7 | |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[67] [68] [69] | 12–26 Sep 2016 | 800 | 67.4 | 27.5 | 15.5 | 15.6 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | – | – | – | 11.9 | |
| 2016 general election | 26 Jun 2016 | 67.4 | 4.3 | 9.4 | 17.3 | 31.9 | 6.1 | 28.3 | – | – | 3.6 | |||||
| 2015 general election | 20 Dec 2015 | 70.9 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 23.0 | 15.5 | 28.9 | 4.1 | 7.1 | – | – | – | 5.9 | |||
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 68.3 | 27.4 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | – | – | – | 11.6 | ||
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Lead | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 14.8 | 2.2 | – | 0.9 | 26.2 | 27.8 | 11.4 | ||||||
| April 2019 general election | 28 Apr 2019 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 19.5 | 14.1 | 3.6 | 22.1 | 23.7 | 2.6 | ||||||||
| CIS | 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 | 381 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 13.9 | 2.9 | – | – | 13.1 | 33.8 | 6.2 | 0.8 | ||||
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[70] [71] | 3–10 Oct 2018 | 955 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | – | – | – | 12.0 | 8.5 | 2.2 | |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre | 25 Sep–8 Oct 2017 | 900 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | – | – | – | 40.7 | 5.2 | 0.2 | |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[72] | 12–26 Sep 2016 | 800 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 40.4 | 9.7 | 6.1 | |
| 2016 general election | 26 Jun 2016 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 12.1 | 22.3 | 4.3 | 19.8 | – | – | 29.4 | 2.5 | ||||||
| 2015 general election | 20 Dec 2015 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 16.9 | 11.4 | 21.3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | – | – | – | 25.7 | 4.4 | ||||
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 19.2 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | – | – | – | 28.6 | 8.0 | |||
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| Sum Navarre (NA+)1 | 127,346 | 36.57 | +2.24 | 20 | +3 | ||
| Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) | 71,838 | 20.63 | +7.26 | 11 | +4 | ||
| Yes to the Future (GBai) | 60,323 | 17.32 | +1.49 | 9 | ±0 | ||
| Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) | 50,631 | 14.54 | +0.29 | 7 | –1 | ||
| We Can (Podemos) | 16,518 | 4.74 | –8.93 | 2 | –5 | ||
| Left (I–E (n)) | 10,472 | 3.01 | –0.68 | 1 | –1 | ||
| Vox (Vox) | 4,546 | 1.31 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Equo–European Green Party (Equo) | 1,597 | 0.46 | –0.18 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK) | 1,251 | 0.36 | –0.15 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Navarrese Freedom (Ln) | 502 | 0.14 | –0.14 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 438 | 0.13 | –0.13 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 2,731 | 0.78 | –1.18 | ||||
| Total | 348,193 | 50 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 348,193 | 99.38 | +0.63 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 2,169 | 0.62 | –0.63 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 350,362 | 68.53 | +0.27 | ||||
| Abstentions | 160,863 | 31.47 | –0.27 | ||||
| Registered voters | 511,225 | ||||||
| Sources[73] [74] | |||||||
Investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called.[3]
| Investiture María Chivite (PSN) | ||||
| Ballot → | 1 August 2019 | 2 August 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 26 out of 50 | Simple | ||
| Absentees | ||||
| Sources[75] [76] | ||||