| Election Name: | 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Mississippi |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2015 |
| Next Election: | 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2023 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2019 |
| Image1: | File:Tate Reeves 2019 (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Tate Reeves |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 459,396 |
| Percentage1: | 51.91% |
| Electoral Vote1: | 73 |
| Nominee2: | Jim Hood |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 414,368 |
| Percentage2: | 46.83% |
| Electoral Vote2: | 49 |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Phil Bryant |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Tate Reeves |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Flag Year: | 2001 |
The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to choose the next Governor of Mississippi.[1] Incumbent Governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. In the general election, Reeves defeated Hood by a margin of 5.08%, with Reeves significantly underperforming Trump who won the state by 17 points, 3 years prior.
Situated in the Deep South as a socially conservative Bible Belt state, Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country. No Democrat has been elected to the governorship since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. However, the state's Democratic Attorney General, Jim Hood, who had held his office since 2004 and had yet to lose a statewide election, put the Republicans' winning streak of four elections in a row to the test, as the race became unusually competitive. Reeves defeated Hood in the general election by a margin of 5.1%, making this the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. Hood pulled off the best performance by a Democrat since the 2003 Mississippi gubernatorial election, when fellow Democrat Ronnie Musgrove took 45.81% of the vote.[2] Hood flipped the counties of Chickasaw, Lafayette, Madison, Panola, and Warren, which had all voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election.
Uniquely among the states, the Constitution of Mississippi establishes a sort of electoral college at the state level. For the election of governor. Article 5, Section 140 of the state constitution states that each state House district is assigned an electoral vote, and that a candidate running for governor must receive a majority of electoral votes (essentially, they must win a majority of state House districts) in addition to winning a majority of the popular vote in order to be elected governor.[3] Article 5, Section 141 of the state constitution states that if no candidate wins both a popular and electoral vote majority, the state House of Representatives is assigned to decide the winner, choosing from the two highest popular vote winners.[4] This provision came into play only one time in the state's history; Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove in the 1999 gubernatorial election garnered a plurality, but not a majority; the House selected Musgrove.[5]
In the lead-up to the election, controversy emerged over these constitutional provisions establishing a state system of electoral votes, with a federal lawsuit claiming the provisions are racially biased.[6] These provisions were put in place with the 1890 Mississippi Constitution, itself established by the segregationist Redeemers and overturning the Reconstruction-era 1868 Constitution, as part of Jim Crow Era policy to minimize the power of African Americans in politics. Because of this, as well as present gerrymandering that packs African Americans into a small number of districts, the plaintiffs claim the provisions should be struck down on the basis of racial bias.
On 3 November 2020 an amendment was passed removing the electoral college with 79% of the vote.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert Foster | Tate Reeves | Bill Waller Jr. | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | July 24–27, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 13% | 41% | 31% | 15% | ||
| Impact Management Group | June 10–14, 2019 | 354 | ± 5.3% | 9% | 50% | 19% | 28% | ||
| Mason-Dixon | January 30 – February 1, 2019 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 9% | 62% | – | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lynn Fitch | Tate Reeves | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | February 15–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 21% | 67% | |||
| Mason-Dixon | December 13–15, 2017 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 18% | 37% | 45% |
Declared
Declared
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[34] | October 15, 2019 | ||
| Inside Elections[35] | November 8, 2019 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | November 8, 2019 |
| Dates | Location | Hood | Reeves | Link | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 10, 2019 | University of Southern Mississippi Hattiesburg | Participant | Participant | align=left | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30RJ89G1l6Q | |
| October 14, 2019 | WCBIStudios Columbus | Participant | Participant | align=left | https://www.wcbi.com/lt-gov-tate-reeves-g-jim-hood-face-off-gubernatorial-debate-hosted-wcbi/ |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Jim Hood (D) | David Singletary (I) | Bob | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBC/Survey Monkey | October 8–22, 2019 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3% | ||
| Targoz Market Research | October 13–20, 2019 | 384 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | – | 7% | ||
| Mason-Dixon | October 17–19, 2019 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | 9% | ||
| Hickman Analytics | October 13–16, 2019 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | – | – | – | ||
| Hickman Analytics (D) | September 22–26, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 45% | – | – | – | ||
| Hickman Analytics (D) | August 11–15, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – | ||
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey | July 2–16, 2019 | 1,171 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | – | – | 6% | ||
| Impact Management Group | June 10–14, 2019 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 36% | 4% | – | 12% | ||
| Hickman Analytics (D) | May 5–9, 2019 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 45% | – | – | – | ||
| Mason-Dixon | January 30 – February 1, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | – | – | 14% | ||
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | January 28–30, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 36% | – | – | 13% | ||
| Mason-Dixon | April 12–14, 2018 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | – | – | 17% | ||
| Chism Strategies/Millsaps College | December 15–19, 2017 | 578 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 38% | – | – | 18% | ||
| Mason-Dixon | December 13–15, 2017 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 43% | – | – | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Waller Jr. (R) | Jim Hood (D) | David Singletary (I) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey | July 2–16, 2019 | 1,171 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 53% | 41% | – | 6% | ||
| Impact Management Group | June 10–14, 2019 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 36% | 4% | 17% |
Reeves won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[37]
| District | Reeves | Hood | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 40% | Trent Kelly | ||||
| 32% | 67% | Bennie Thompson | ||||
| 54% | 45% | Michael Guest | ||||
| 63% | 35% | Steven Palazzo |
Official campaign websites