2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin explained

Election Name:	2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Country:	Wisconsin
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Previous Year:	2012
Next Election:	2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Next Year:	2024
Turnout:	61.2%
Image1:	File:Tammy Baldwin, official portrait, 113th Congress (1).jpg
Nominee1:	Tammy Baldwin
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,472,914
Percentage1:	55.36%
Nominee2:	Leah Vukmir
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	1,184,885
Percentage2:	44.53%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Tammy Baldwin
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Tammy Baldwin
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Leah Vukmir, state senator and State Senate Assistant Majority Leader^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Charles Barman^[4]
• Griffin Jones^[5]
• George Lucia^[6]
• Kevin Nicholson, businessman and member of the Wisconsin Board of Veterans Affairs^[7]

Declined

• David Clarke, former Milwaukee County Sheriff^{[8] [9]}
• Sean Duffy, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)^[10]
• Scott Fitzgerald, State Senate Majority Leader
• Mike Gallagher, U.S. Representative
• Glenn Grothman, U.S. Representative^[11]
• Eric Hovde, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012^{[11] [12]}
• Rebecca Kleefisch, Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin^[13]
• Dale Kooyenga, state representative^[11]
• Nicole Schneider, businesswoman^{[14] [15]}
• Duey Stroebel, state senator
• Charlie Sykes, talk radio host^[16]
• Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (running for reelection)^[17]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kevin Nicholson	Leah Vukmir	Other	Undecided
Emerson College^[18]	July 26–28, 2018	238	± 6.5%	35%	35%	3%	27%
Marist College^[19]	July 15–19, 2018	355	± 6.1%	align=center	38%	28%	<1%	34%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)^[20]	July 12–16, 2018	600	± 3.0%	align=center	33%	20%	–	align=center	47%
Marquette University^[21]	July 11–15, 2018	266	± 7.0%	32%	align=center	34%	2%	30%
Marquette University^[22]	June 13–17, 2018	274	± 6.9%	align=center	37%	32%	1%	30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)^[23]	June 7–12, 2018	600	± 3.0%	align=center	28%	14%	–	align=center	58%
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)^[24]	May 31 – June 4, 2018	800	± 3.5%	29%	align=center	36%	–	35%
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)^[25]	May 29–31, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	32%	30%	–	–
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)^[26]	April 30 – May 3, 2018	240	± 6.0%	align=center	46%	15%	–	–
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)^[27]	April 2–4, 2018	1,028	± 3.1%	align=center	45%	27%	–	28%
Marquette University^[28]	February 25 – March 1, 2018	243	± 8.2%	align=center	28%	19%	2%	align=center	49%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)^[29]	January 22–23, 2018	350	± 5.2%	align=center	48%	9%	1%	42%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)	January 2–3, 2018	350	± 5.2%	align=center	27%	10%	2%	align=center	60%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)^[30]	December 6–7, 2017	1,004	± 3.1%	align=center	30%	23%	2%	align=center	45%

Results

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 13, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[32]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections^[33]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[34]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[35]		November 5, 2018
CNN^[36]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[37]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Leah Vukmir (R)	Other	Undecided
Research Co.^[38]	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	align=center	50%	39%	–	11%
Emerson College^[39]	October 29–31, 2018	604	± 4.1%	align=center	53%	44%	–	3%
Marquette University^[40]	October 24–28, 2018	1,154 LV	± 3.2%	align=center	54%	43%	–	1%
	1,400 RV	± 3.0%	align=center	52%	42%	–	3%
Ipsos^[41]	October 12–18, 2018	1,193	± 3.0%	align=center	54%	39%	3%	5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)^[42]	October 10–11, 2018	816	± 3.4%	align=center	52%	42%	–	6%
Marquette University^[43]	October 3–7, 2018	799 LV	± 3.9%	align=center	53%	43%	–	2%
	1,000 RV	± 3.6%	align=center	53%	42%	–	3%
Marist College^[44]	September 30 – October 3, 2018	571 LV	± 4.8%	align=center	54%	40%	1%	5%
	781 RV	± 4.1%	align=center	53%	40%	1%	6%
Ipsos	September 14–24, 2018	1,109	± 3.0%	align=center	52%	39%	4%	5%
Marquette University^[45]	September 12–16, 2018	614 LV	± 4.4%	align=center	53%	42%	–	2%
	800 RV	± 4.0%	align=center	52%	40%	–	4%
Suffolk University^[46]	August 18–24, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	50%	42%	–	8%
Marquette University^[47]	August 15–19, 2018	601 LV	± 4.5%	align=center	49%	47%	–	2%
	800 RV	± 4.0%	align=center	51%	43%	–	4%
Emerson College^[48]	July 26–28, 2018	632	± 4.2%	align=center	50%	36%	4%	10%
Marist College	July 15–19, 2018	906	± 3.8%	align=center	55%	38%	1%	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios^[49]	June 11 – July 2, 2018	968	± 4.5%	align=center	56%	40%	–	4%
Marquette University	June 13–17, 2018	800	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	40%	–	8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)^[50]	March 15–16, 2018	910	± 3.3%	align=center	51%	39%	–	10%

with Kevin Nicholson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Kevin Nicholson (R)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College^[51]	July 26–28, 2018	632	± 4.2%	align=center	49%	40%	3%	9%
Marist College	July 15–19, 2018	906	± 3.8%	align=center	54%	39%	1%	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	June 11 – July 2, 2018	968	± 4.5%	align=center	55%	42%	–	3%
Marquette University	June 13–17, 2018	800	± 4.0%	align=center	50%	39%	–	7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	March 15–16, 2018	910	± 3.3%	align=center	51%	38%	–	11%

with generic Republican

with David Clarke

with Sean Duffy

Results

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.^[53] This is the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi)
• Forest (largest city: Crandon)
• Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
• Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
• Pepin (largest city: Durand)
• Price (largest city: Park Falls)
• Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
• Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
• Wood (largest city: Marshfield)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
• Brown (largest city: Green Bay)

By congressional district

Despite winning by over 10 percentage points, Baldwin only won 3 out of 8 Congressional districts.

District	Vukmir	Baldwin	Representative
		50.3%	49.6%		Bryan Steil
		26.4%	73.4%		Mark Pocan
		43.5%	56.4%		Ron Kind
		21.3%	78.6%		Gwen Moore
		56.9%	43.0%		Jim Sensenbrenner
		52.4%	47.5%		Glenn Grothman
		52.2%	47.7%		Sean Duffy
		51.5%	48.5%		Mike Gallagher

See also

• 2018 United States Senate elections
• 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
• 2018 Wisconsin elections

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Tammy Baldwin (D) for Senate
• John Schiess (I) for Senate (write-in)
• Leah Vukmir (R) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: Elections - Wisconsin Elections Commission. elections.wi.gov. 2018-03-29. 2018-04-17. https://web.archive.org/web/20180417232937/http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/elections. dead.
2. Web site: Sen. Baldwin prepares for re-election fight in 2018. April 19, 2017.
3. News: Establishment-backed Vukmir wins Wisconsin GOP Senate primary. The Hill. August 14, 2018. Max. Greenwood.
4. Web site: BARMAN, CHARLES EDWARD - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
5. Web site: JONES, GRIFFIN GILBERT - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
6. Web site: Wisconsin 2018 General Election. The Green Papers.
7. Web site: Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson launches GOP Wisconsin Senate bid against Tammy Baldwin. Glabuer. Bill. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. July 26, 2017.
8. News: Super PAC wants David Clarke to run against Tammy Baldwin. WFRV-TV. Horning. Joe. January 19, 2017. January 19, 2017.
9. Web site: "Cop Under Fire:" Sheriff Clarke says he won't run for Senate, criticizes Gov. Walker in new book. March 1, 2017.
10. News: Wisconsin's Sean Duffy Expected to Forgo Senate Bid. Roll Call. Pathé. Simone. February 15, 2017. February 15, 2017.
11. Web site: Buoyed by Trump's win, Wisconsin Republicans eye Baldwin challenge . The Hill. Curtis. Jake. December 18, 2016. December 19, 2016.
12. News: Republican Eric Hovde won't decide Senate run for months. WQOW. Associated Press. November 17, 2016. November 17, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161118044641/http://www.wqow.com/story/33737641/republican-eric-hovde-wont-decide-senate-run-for-months. November 18, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
13. Web site: Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch Rules Out 2018 Senate Run . June 19, 2017 . usnews.com. PDF.
14. Web site: Another GOP Name Surfaces in WI 2018 Senate Race. RightWisconsin. Bader. Jerry. March 28, 2017. March 28, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170329141225/http://www.rightwisconsin.com/opinion/perspectives/another-gop-name-surfaces-in-wi-2018-senate-race. March 29, 2017. dead. mdy-all.
15. Web site: Nicole Schneider won't run for Senate against Tammy Baldwin. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Jason. Stein. June 27, 2017. June 28, 2017.
16. News: Charlie Sykes: 'Absolutely no truth' to suggestion he'd challenge Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate. Wisconsin State Journal. Sommerhauser. Mark. October 6, 2016. October 11, 2016.
17. Web site: Gov. Scott Walker leaning toward re-election, rules out 2018 Senate bid. The Washington Examiner. Drucker. David M.. November 16, 2016. November 17, 2016.
18. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
19. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Wisconsin-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_July-26-2018_1708251128.pdf Marist College
20. http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180719Restoration.pdf Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)
21. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MLSP46Toplines.pdf Marquette University
22. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/MLSP45Toplines.pdf Marquette University
23. https://www.scribd.com/document/382021495/WI-Sen-Hodas-Associates-R-for-Restoration-PAC-June-2018 Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)
24. https://subscriber.politicopro.com/campaigns/whiteboard/2018/06/pro-vukmir-pac-poll-shows-her-leading-wisconsin-gop-primary-1350035 The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)
25. https://web.archive.org/web/20180604144540/https://leahvukmir.com/post-convention-poll-shows-leah-momentum-moves-statistical-tie/ American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)
26. https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/667882/pro-nicholson-poll-shows-him-ahead-primary-31-points Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)
27. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/05/first-pro-leah-vukmir-tv-ad-airs-wisconsin-u-s-senate-race/491064002/ WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)
28. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/03/05/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-wisconsin-voters-divided-on-benefits-of-foxconn-deal-but-together-in-support-of-background-checks-for-gun-sales/ Marquette University
29. https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/bolton-super-pac-poll-suggests-ad-praising-nicholson-boosted-his-favorability/ WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)
30. https://www.scribd.com/document/367193835/WI-Sen-WPI-Intelligence-R-for-Kevin-Nicholson-Dec-2017 WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)
31. https://www.scribd.com/document/340027313/WI-Sen-Magellan-Strategies-for-Committee-to-Defend-the-President-Feb-2017 Magellan Strategies (R)
32. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
33. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
34. Web site: Skelley . Geoffrey . Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats' Direction . centerforpolitics.org . Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball . June 21, 2018.
35. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
36. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
37. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
38. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_05Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
39. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-tight-governor-races-georgia-wisconsin-iowa-democrats-look-pick-two-house-seats-iowa Emerson College
40. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/10/31/mlsp50release/ Marquette University
41. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html Ipsos
42. https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WisconsinResults1.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
43. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/10/10/mlsp49release/ Marquette University
44. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_WI-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810081506.pdf Marist College
45. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/09/18/mlsp48release/ Marquette University
46. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_28_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
47. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/08/22/mlsp47release/ Marquette University
48. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
49. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
50. http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-WI-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
51. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
52. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH6AbyU5kapsnOLZGf3ydy7MYKjbUo-A/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
53. Web site: Glauber . Bill . Tammy Baldwin's win - the largest in a top race in Wisconsin in 12 years - offers road map for 2020 . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . 14 November 2018.