2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania explained

Election Name:	2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Country:	Pennsylvania
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Previous Year:	2012
Next Election:	2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Next Year:	2024
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Turnout:	58.18%
Image1:	Bob Casey Jr. official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Bob Casey Jr.
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	2,792,437
Percentage1:	55.74%
Nominee2:	Lou Barletta
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	2,134,848
Percentage2:	42.62%
Map Size:	240px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Bob Casey Jr.
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Bob Casey Jr.
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15.^[1] Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term.^[2] Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta,^[3] Green Party nominee Neal Gale,^[4] and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns.^[5] Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

Democratic primary

Candidates

On ballot

• Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator^[6]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

• Lou Barletta, U.S. Representative from Hazleton^[7]
• Jim Christiana, state representative from Beaver^[8]

Withdrew

• Paul Addis, businessman (running for PA-5)^{[9] [10] [11]}
• Cynthia E. Ayers, cyber security consultant and former National Security Agency employee^{[11] [12]}
• Jeff Bartos, real estate developer (running for lieutenant governor)^[13]
• Paul DeLong, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004^{[11] [14]}
• Bobby Lawrence, small business owner (endorsed Dale Kerns)^{[11] [15]}
• Rick Saccone, state representative (ran for PA-18, ran for PA-14)^[16]
• Andrew Shecktor, Berwick Borough Councilman (running for PA-9)^{[17] [18]}

Declined

• Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative^[19]
• Pat Meehan, former U.S. Representative^[20]
• Dave Reed, Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives^[21]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lou Barletta	Jim Christiana	Other	Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana)^[22]	April 2018	>400	–	align=center	32%	11%	–	align=center	58%
Bellwether Research (R-Addis)^[23]	September 20–24, 2017	600	± 4.0%	align=center	22%	–	<10%	align=center	60%

Results

Libertarian Party

Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018.^[24]

Candidates

Nominee

• Dale Kerns, former Republican Eddystone Borough council member^[25] and board of directors member for Goodwill Industries^{[5] [11] [26]}

Green Party

Candidates

Nominee

• Neal Gale, clean energy consultant^[4]

General election

Candidates

• Lou Barletta (R), U.S. Representative
• Bob Casey Jr. (D), incumbent senator
• Neal Gale (G), clean energy consultant
• Dale Kerns (L), former Eddystone Borough council member

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[27]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections^[28]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[29]		November 5, 2018
Daily Kos^[30]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[31]		November 5, 2018
CNN^[32]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[33]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey Jr. (D)	Lou Barletta (R)	Other	Undecided
Change Research^[34]	November 2–4, 2018	1,833	–	align=center	51%	44%	3%^[35]	–
Research Co.^[36]	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	39%	1%	4%
Muhlenberg College^[37]	October 28 – November 1, 2018	421	± 5.5%	align=center	54%	40%	–	–
Franklin & Marshall College^[38]	October 22–28, 2018	214 LV	± 9.5%	align=center	50%	35%	–	14%
	537 RV	± 6.0%	align=center	50%	31%	4%^[39]	14%
Morning Consult^[40]	October 1–2, 2018	1,188	± 3.0%	align=center	47%	32%	–	21%
Franklin & Marshall College^[41]	September 17–23, 2018	204 LV	–	align=center	50%	33%	–	15%
	545 RV	± 6.1%	align=center	48%	30%	4%^[42]	20%
Ipsos^[43]	September 12–20, 2018	1,080	± 3.0%	align=center	53%	37%	3%	7%
Muhlenberg College^[44]	September 13–19, 2018	404	± 5.5%	align=center	53%	35%	7%^[45]	6%
Rasmussen Reports^[46]	September 12–13, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	52%	38%	2%	8%
Franklin & Marshall College^[47]	August 20–26, 2018	222 LV	–	align=center	47%	34%	1%	19%
	511 RV	± 6.1%	align=center	48%	29%	3%^[48]	20%
NBC News/Marist^[49]	August 12–16, 2018	713	± 4.2%	align=center	53%	38%	1%	8%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)^[50]	August 13–15, 2018	2,012	± 3.6%	align=center	47%	45%	2%	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios^[51]	June 11 – July 2, 2018	990	± 4.5%	align=center	55%	41%	–	5%
Suffolk University^[52]	June 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	47%	32%	1%	21%
Franklin & Marshall College^[53]	June 4–10, 2018	472	± 6.5%	align=center	44%	27%	1%	28%
Muhlenberg College^[54]	April 4–12, 2018	414	± 5.5%	align=center	48%	32%	8%	18%
Franklin & Marshall College^[55]	March 19–26, 2018	423	± 6.8%	align=center	43%	25%	2%	30%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)^[56]	March 15–16, 2018	1,056	± 3.0%	align=center	54%	36%	–	10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios^[57]	February 12 – March 5, 2018	2,165	± 3.8%	align=center	52%	43%	–	5%

with Jim Christiana

with generic Democrat and Republican

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
• Luzerne (largest city: Wilkes-Barre)

By congressional district

Bob Casey Jr won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.^[58]

District	Barletta	Casey Jr.	Representative
	1st	41.65%	56.72%		Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd	20.33%	78.53%
			Brendan Boyle
	3rd	5.76%	93.06%		Dwight Evans
	4th	34.11%	64.36%		Madeleine Dean
	5th	30.84%	67.88%		Mary Gay Scanlon
	6th	39.17%	59.05%		Chrissy Houlahan
	7th	42.21%	56.07%		Susan Wild
8th	47.02%	51.84%
			Matt Cartwright
	9th	58.77%	39.57%		Dan Meuser
	10th	48.19%	49.78%		Scott Perry
	11th	55.77%	42.04%		Lloyd Smucker
	12th	60.26%	37.80%		Tom Marino
	13th	64.15%	34.20%		John Joyce
	14th	52.34%	46.04%		Guy Reschenthaler
	15th	60.19%	38.04%		Glenn Thompson
	16th	50.21%	48.11%		Mike Kelly
	17th	40.66%	57.55%		Conor Lamb
	18th	27.41%	70.86%		Mike Doyle

See also

• 2018 United States Senate elections
• 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania
• 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Lou Barletta (R) for Senate
• Bob Casey (D) for Senate
• Dale Kerns (L) for Senate
• Neal Gale (G) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: 2018 State Primary Election Dates. www.ncsl.org.
2. Web site: Trump Encouraging Barletta to Challenge Casey in Senate. Eric. Garcia. 4 May 2017. Roll Call.
3. Web site: 2018 Pennsylvania Election Results . . May 16, 2018 .
4. Web site: Candidates 2018. Green Party of Pennsylvania. May 22, 2018. May 23, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180523011534/https://www.gpofpa.org/candidates2018. dead.
5. Web site: Rose. Alex. Kerns wins Libertarian nod for U.S. Senate race. Delaware County Daily Times. March 7, 2018. May 25, 2018.
6. Web site: Casey in Good Position For 2018 Reelection Bid - WNPV Radio 98.5FM & 1440AM. 16 October 2017. 30 October 2017. 12 November 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171112092922/http://wnpv1440.com/2017/10/16/casey-good-position-2018-reelection-bid/. dead.
7. News: Barletta Announces His Candidacy for Senate. Roll Call August 29, 2017. August 29, 2017.
8. News: Engelkemier. Paul. Christiana Jumps into U.S. Senate Race. 8 April 2017. PoliticsPA. 8 April 2017.
9. Web site: Pa. businessman exploring a run for governor. NewsWorks. Davies. Dave. November 28, 2016. January 11, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170113130357/http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/off-mic/99191-pa-businessman-exploring-a-run-for-governor-. January 13, 2017. dead. mdy-all.
10. Web site: Ex-Energy Exec Enters Pennsylvania's US Senate Race. WESA. June 7, 2017. June 7, 2017. Marc. Levy.
11. Web site: Pennsylvania 2018 General Election. www.thegreenpapers.com. 2018-03-26.
12. Web site: Cynthia E. Ayers Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate. Gant Daily. June 21, 2017. July 12, 2017.
13. News: Engelkeimer. Paul. Bartos Jumps into Senate Race. 24 April 2017. PoliticsPA. 24 April 2017.
14. Web site: Republicans' next Pennsylvania target: Casey. The Philadelphia Inquirer. Tamari. Jonathan. February 10, 2017. August 27, 2017.
15. Web site: EXCLUSIVE: Trumper Bobby Lawrence Announces Senate Run In Pennsylvania. Big League Politics. Howley. Patrick. May 23, 2017. August 27, 2017.
16. News: Engelkemier. Paul. Saccone Launches 2018 US Senate Bid. 27 February 2017. PoliticsPA. 27 February 2017.
17. News: Second Republican joins race to unseat Bob Casey. The Philadelphia Inquirer. Associated Press. March 1, 2017. March 2, 2017.
18. News: Shektor drops Senate bid; will run for House seat. Times Leader. O'Boyle. Bill. September 20, 2017. September 20, 2017.
19. News: Rep. Mike Kelly pulls out of crowded Senate race for Casey seat. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Potter. Chris. August 1, 2017. August 1, 2017.
20. Web site: Meehan won't challenge Casey for Senate in 2018, spokesman says. Associated Press.
21. News: Reed Rules Out Governor and Senate Runs in 2018. PoliticsPA. Engelkemier. Paul. May 12, 2017. May 15, 2017.
22. http://www.timesonline.com/news/20180420/christiana-says-58-percent-undecided-in-primary-poll-shows-voters-looking-for-alternative Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana)
23. https://www.scribd.com/document/363991672/Addis-for-Senate-GOP-Poll-Memo-10-3-17 Bellwether Research (R-Addis)
24. Web site: Rose . Alex . Kerns wins Libertarian nod for U.S. Senate race . Daily Times News . 2018-03-07.
25. Web site: Day . Lauren . 29-Year-Old Represents His Pennsylvania Stomping Grounds . LI News . Leadership Institute . 10 September 2021.
26. News: Libertarian Jumps into Senate Race. 2017-03-17.
27. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
28. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
29. Web site: 2018 Senate. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 4, 2018.
30. Web site: Elections 2017-18. Daily Kos. September 30, 2018.
31. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . September 25, 2018.
32. Web site: Key Races: Senate. September 25, 2018.
33. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. September 25, 2018.
34. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105045602/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059298234261094401 Change Research
35. Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%
36. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_04Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
37. https://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-muhlenberg-pa-poll-wolf-casey-20181102-story.html Muhlenberg College
38. https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College
39. Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%; other with 1%
40. https://www.politico.com/magazine/f/?id=00000166-6a16-d0b1-a57e-ee9f1b570000 Morning Consult
41. https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf Franklin & Marshall College
42. Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
43. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html Ipsos
44. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4917010/Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College-Poll-of.pdf Muhlenberg College
45. Neal Gale (G) and Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, neither/other with 3%
46. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/pennsylvania/election_2018_pennsylvania_senate Rasmussen Reports
47. https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/542437385203702944-f-m-poll-release-august-2018.pdf Franklin & Marshall College
48. Dale Kerns (L) and Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
49. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Pennsylvania-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_August-2018_1808201141.pdf NBC News/Marist
50. http://www.pennsylvaniachronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/wagner-wolf-topline-08-2018-poll-august-20-2018.pdf Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)
51. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
52. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/6_27_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
53. https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/93840024988851901-f-m-poll-release-june-2018.pdf Franklin & Marshall College
54. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4437343/Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College-2018.pdf Muhlenberg College
55. https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/708725106986767486-f-m-poll-release-march-2018.pdf Franklin & Marshall College
56. http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-PA-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
57. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH6AbyU5kapsnOLZGf3ydy7MYKjbUo-A/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
58. Web site: Twitter.