Election Name: | 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico |
Country: | New Mexico |
Type: | presidential |
Ongoing: | no |
Previous Election: | 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico |
Previous Year: | 2012 |
Next Election: | 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico |
Next Year: | 2024 |
Election Date: | November 6, 2018 |
Turnout: | 55.0% |
Image1: | File:Heinrich Official Headshot 2019 (cropped).jpg |
Nominee1: | Martin Heinrich |
Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
Popular Vote1: | 376,998 |
Percentage1: | 54.09% |
Nominee2: | Mick Rich |
Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
Popular Vote2: | 212,813 |
Percentage2: | 30.53% |
Image3: | File:Gary Johnson campaign portrait.jpg |
Nominee3: | Gary Johnson |
Party3: | Libertarian Party (United States) |
Popular Vote3: | 107,201 |
Percentage3: | 15.38% |
Map Size: | 200px |
U.S. Senator | |
Before Election: | Martin Heinrich |
Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
After Election: | Martin Heinrich |
After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term. His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for President of the United States.
The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018.[1] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.
On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement.[7] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.[8]
Source | Ranking | As of | |
---|---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[11] | October 26, 2018 | ||
Inside Elections[12] | November 1, 2018 | ||
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | November 1, 2018 | ||
Fox News[14] | November 1, 2018 | ||
CNN[15] | November 1, 2018 | ||
RealClearPolitics[16] | November 5, 2018 | ||
FiveThirtyEight[17] | November 6, 2018 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Mick Rich (R) | Gary Johnson (L) | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co.[18] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 47% | 33% | 11% | 9% | |
Carroll Strategies[19] | November 1, 2018 | 1,202 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 51% | 38% | 8% | 3% | |
Research & Polling, Inc.[20] | October 26 – November 1, 2018 | 993 | ± 3.1% | align=center | 51% | 31% | 12% | 6% | |
Emerson College[21] | October 24–26, 2018 | 936 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 48% | 32% | 16% | 5% | |
Pacific Market Research[22] | October 19–24, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | align=center | 40% | 28% | 22% | 11% | |
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[23] | September 20–24, 2018 | 932 | – | align=center | 36% | 10% | 28% | 26% | |
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[24] | September 16–17, 2018 | 900 | – | align=center | 38% | 10% | 28% | 24% | |
Research & Polling, Inc.[25] | September 7–13, 2018 | 966 | ± 3.1% | align=center | 47% | 26% | 16% | – | |
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[26] | August 2018 | 900 | – | align=center | 38% | 13% | 28% | 21% | |
Emerson College[27] | August 17–18, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 39% | 11% | 21% | 30% | |
GQR Research (D-TMI)[28] | August 2–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 48% | 33% | 17% | 2% | |
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)[29] | August 1–5, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 47% | 29% | 22% | – | |
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)[30] | July 31 – August 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | align=center | 44% | 30% | 20% | 6% | |
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[31] | July 2018 | 500 | – | align=center | 39% | 25% | 23% | 12% |
with Mick Rich
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Mick Rich (R) | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) | July 31 – August 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | align=center | 55% | 37% | 8% | |
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[32] | July 2018 | 500 | – | align=center | 47% | 29% | – |
with Gary Johnson
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Gary Johnson (L) | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) | August 1–5, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 50% | 38% | – | |
In Lux Research (L)[33] | July 28–29, 2018 | 525 | – | 40% | align=center | 42% | – |
with Aubrey Dunn
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Mick Rich (R) | Aubrey Dunn (L) | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[34] | July 2018 | 500 | – | align=center | 47% | 30% | 7% | 16% | |
Carroll Strategies[35] | June 15–16, 2018 | 1,199 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 50% | 39% | 5% | 6% |
Martin Heinrich Democrat | Mick Rich Republican | Gary Johnson Libertarian | Total | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | ||
Bernalillo | 140,082 | 58.1% | 61,932 | 25.7% | 39,274 | 16.3% | 241,288 | ||
Catron | 550 | 26.9% | 1,075 | 58.4% | 217 | 11.8% | 1,842 | ||
Chaves | 5,279 | 31.7% | 8,727 | 52.4% | 2,666 | 16.0% | 16,672 | ||
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Cibola | 3,924 | 55.1% | 1,842 | 25.9% | 1,355 | 19.0% | 7,121 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Colfax | 2,333 | 49.9% | 1,615 | 34.5% | 731 | 15.6% | 4,679 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Curry | 2,793 | 27.4% | 5,896 | 57.9% | 1,498 | 14.7% | 10,187 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | De Baca | 267 | 33.2% | 342 | 42.5% | 196 | 24.4% | 805 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Doña Ana | 34,651 | 57.0% | 18,101 | 29.8% | 8,029 | 13.2% | 60,781 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Eddy | 4,834 | 30.7% | 8,826 | 56.0% | 2,095 | 13.3% | 15,755 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Grant | 6,763 | 57.3% | 3,598 | 30.5% | 1,442 | 12.2% | 11,803 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Guadalupe | 1,094 | 65.2% | 292 | 17.4% | 292 | 17.4% | 1,678 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Harding | 198 | 41.2% | 199 | 41.4% | 84 | 17.5% | 481 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Hidalgo | 790 | 49.5% | 607 | 38.1% | 198 | 12.4% | 1,595 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Lea | 3,331 | 24.1% | 8,882 | 64.2% | 1,628 | 11.8% | 13,841 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Lincoln | 2,617 | 33.3% | 4,122 | 52.5% | 1,111 | 14.2% | 7,850 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Los Alamos | 5,798 | 56.3% | 2,576 | 25.0% | 1,926 | 18.7% | 10,300 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Luna | 3,005 | 48.9% | 2,313 | 37.7% | 823 | 13.4% | 6,141 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | McKinley | 12,409 | 67.5% | 2,915 | 15.9% | 3,049 | 16.6% | 18,373 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Mora | 1,564 | 67.4% | 372 | 16.0% | 386 | 16.6% | 2,322 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Otero | 6,370 | 37.2% | 8,460 | 49.4% | 2,291 | 13.4% | 17,121 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Quay | 1,016 | 32.9% | 1,534 | 49.7% | 537 | 17.4% | 3,087 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Rio Arriba | 8,773 | 68.8% | 1,945 | 15.3% | 2,035 | 16.0% | 12,753 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Roosevelt | 1,277 | 27.6% | 2,606 | 56.3% | 750 | 16.2% | 4,633 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | San Juan | 12,485 | 33.4% | 18,002 | 48.2% | 6,876 | 18.4% | 37,363 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | San Miguel | 6,609 | 71.6% | 1,298 | 14.1% | 1,323 | 14.3% | 9,230 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Sandoval | 28,198 | 50.9% | 17,785 | 32.1% | 9,397 | 17.0% | 55,380 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Santa Fe | 49,994 | 74.4% | 9,546 | 14.2% | 7,642 | 11.4% | 67,182 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Sierra | 1,917 | 40.5% | 2,048 | 43.3% | 767 | 16.2% | 4,732 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Socorro | 3,409 | 54.7% | 1,700 | 27.3% | 1,129 | 18.1% | 6,238 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Taos | 10,838 | 74.7% | 1,556 | 10.7% | 2,112 | 14.6% | 14,506 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Torrance | 1,982 | 36.9% | 2,433 | 45.3% | 951 | 17.7% | 5,366 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Union | 334 | 22.8% | 878 | 60.0% | 252 | 17.2% | 1,464 | |
style='background:#d3d3d3;' | Valencia | 11,514 | 47.1% | 8,790 | 35.0% | 4,139 | 16.9% | 24,443 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts.[37]
District | Heinrich | Rich | Johnson | Representative | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
57.55% | 26.28% | 16.17% | Deb Haaland | |||
45.56% | 40.17% | 14.27% | Xochitl Torres Small | |||
57.52% | 27.0% | 15.48% | Ben Ray Luján | |||
Official campaign websites