2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey explained
Election Name: | 2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey |
Country: | New Jersey |
Type: | presidential |
Ongoing: | no |
Previous Election: | 2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey |
Previous Year: | 2012 |
Next Election: | 2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey |
Next Year: | 2024 |
Election Date: | November 6, 2018 |
Turnout: | 53.38% |
Image1: | File:Robert Menendez official Senate portrait (cropped).jpg |
Nominee1: | Bob Menendez |
Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
Popular Vote1: | 1,711,654 |
Percentage1: | 54.01% |
Nominee2: | Bob Hugin |
Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
Popular Vote2: | 1,357,355 |
Percentage2: | 42.83% |
U.S. Senator |
Before Election: | Bob Menendez |
Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
After Election: | Bob Menendez |
After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Jersey. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Menendez won reelection to a third term over Republican businessman Bob Hugin.
The candidate filing deadline was April 2, 2018, for Democratic and Republican candidates, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018.[1] The deadline for independent candidates was June 5, 2018.[2]
Despite the race being rated as a tossup by some political pundits, including The Cook Political Report,[3] Menendez was reelected by an 11.2% margin. However, Hugin was the first Republican Senate candidate to carry Atlantic and Gloucester counties since Clifford Case's landslide victory in 1972.
Democratic primary
While he never lost support from any major New Jersey officials, after a mistrial was declared in Senator Menendez's corruption trial, party figures across New Jersey lined up with public endorsements of his reelection bid, including the "full support" of Governor Phil Murphy.[4] He formally declared his intention to run for reelection on March 28, 2018, alongside Governor Murphy and Senator Cory Booker.[5]
Candidates
Nominee
- Bob Menendez, incumbent U.S. Senator
Eliminated in Primary
- Lisa McCormick, activist and candidate for Union County Clerk in 2010[6] [7]
Withdrew
Declined
Results
Republican primary
Bob Hugin launched his primary campaign on February 13 in Springfield.[13] He began advertising on television two weeks later, attacking Menendez on the airwaves,[14] and was soon considered the presumptive nominee.[15] His opponent, Brian Goldberg, attempted to connect himself to President Donald Trump and his supporters by inserting the President's abbreviated slogan, "MAGA", into his ballot slogans and aligning himself with other pro-Trump, anti-establishment candidates.[16] Goldberg also attacked Hugin's running mates, urging Republicans to write in the deceased Charlton Heston in primary races where a Republican congressional candidate was running unopposed.[17] Ultimately, Hugin won overwhelmingly with a majority of votes in each of the state's 21 counties.[18]
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in Primary
- Brian D. Goldberg, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[20] [21]
Withdrew
- Rich Pezzullo, businessman (endorsed Bob Hugin, running for NJ-6)[22] [23] [24]
- Hirsh Singh, aerospace engineer and candidate for governor in 2017 (running for NJ-2)[21] [25]
- Dana Wefer, former chairwoman of the Hoboken Housing Authority and candidate for governor in 2017[26] (did not submit enough petition signatures)
Declined
Results
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Endorsements
Green Party
Independents
Candidates
- Tricia Flanagan (New Day NJ), consultant[37]
- Kevin Kimple (Make it Simple), small business owner[37]
- Natalie Rivera (For the People), social services coordinator[37]
- Hank Schroeder (Economic Growth), perennial candidate[37]
Withdrew
General election
Debates
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 |
---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
---|
| Bob Hugin (R) | $30,289,561 | $27,714,323 | $2,575,238 |
| Bob Menendez (D) | $11,631,183 | $11,225,693 | $1,832,385 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[39] | |
---|
Predictions
^Highest rating given
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Menendez (D) | Bob Hugin (R) | Murray Sabrin (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|
Change Research[46] | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,006 | – | align=center | 51% | 41% | – | – | – |
Quinnipiac University[47] | October 29 – November 4, 2018 | 1,115 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 55% | 40% | – | 1% | 4% |
Stockton University[48] | October 25–31, 2018 | 598 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 51% | 39% | 3% | 4% | 1% |
Vox Populi Polling[49] | October 27–29, 2018 | 814 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 54% | 46% | – | – | – |
Emerson College[50] | October 24–26, 2018 | 659 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 47% | 42% | – | 4% | 7% |
Rutgers-Eagleton[51] | October 12–19, 2018 | 496 LV | ± 5.1% | align=center | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% |
896 RV | ± 3.8% | align=center | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 5% |
Quinnipiac University[52] | October 10–16, 2018 | 873 | ± 4.3% | align=center | 51% | 44% | – | 0% | 5% |
Monmouth University[53] | October 11–15, 2018 | 527 | ± 4.3% | align=center | 49% | 40% | 1% | 2%[54] | 8% |
National Research Inc. (R-Hugin)[55] | October 6–9, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 42% | 40% | – | – | – |
YouGov[56] | October 2–5, 2018 | 845 | – | align=center | 49% | 39% | – | 4% | 8% |
Quinnipiac University[57] | September 25 – October 2, 2018 | 1,058 | ± 4.1% | align=center | 53% | 42% | – | 0% | 5% |
Vox Populi Polling[58] | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 794 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 52% | 48% | – | – | – |
Fairleigh Dickinson University[59] | September 26–30, 2018 | 508 LV | ± 4.3% | align=center | 43% | 37% | – | 1% | 19% |
746 RV | ± 3.9% | align=center | 37% | 32% | – | 1% | 29% |
Stockton University[60] | September 19–27, 2018 | 531 | ± 4.3% | align=center | 45% | 43% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
Quinnipiac University[61] | August 15–20, 2018 | 908 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 43% | 37% | – | 2% | 16% |
Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin)[62] | August 14–15, 2018 | 753 | ± 3.6% | align=center | 40% | 30% | 7% | – | 22% |
Gravis Marketing[63] | July 6–10, 2018 | 563 | ± 4.1% | align=center | 43% | 41% | – | – | 16% |
Fairleigh Dickinson University[64] | May 16–21, 2018 | 856 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 28% | 24% | – | 1% | align=center | 46% |
Monmouth University[65] | April 6–10, 2018 | 632 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 53% | 32% | – | 7% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University[66] | March 8–12, 2018 | 1,052 | ± 4.2% | align=center | 49% | 32% | – | 1% | 15% | |
Kean vs. Andrews
Codey vs. Kyrillos
Results by county
[68]
County | Menendez % | Menendez votes | Hugin % | Hugin votes | Other % | Other votes |
---|
Atlantic | 47.43% | 44,617 | 48.85% | 45,954 | 3.72% | 3,502 |
Bergen | 54.69% | 188,235 | 42.54% | 146,406 | 2.77% | 9,542 |
Burlington | 52.78% | 98,749 | 43.96% | 82,240 | 3.26% | 6,111 |
Camden | 61.82% | 113,137 | 34.58% | 63,279 | 3.60% | 6,600 |
Cape May | 35.78% | 14,555 | 61.02% | 24,823 | 3.20% | 1,299 |
Cumberland | 48.29% | 19,386 | 47.93% | 19,244 | 3.78% | 1,517 |
Essex | 76.52% | 194,068 | 21.12% | 53,537 | 2.36% | 6,028 |
Gloucester | 46.41% | 52,303 | 49.77% | 56,090 | 3.82% | 4,309 |
Hudson | 76.35% | 132,180 | 20.84% | 36,087 | 2.81% | 4,863 |
Hunterdon | 39.29% | 24,823 | 57.17% | 36,116 | 3.54% | 2,195 |
Mercer | 63.67% | 80,773 | 32.50% | 41,225 | 3.83% | 4,785 |
Middlesex | 58.21% | 148,806 | 38.64% | 98,764 | 3.15% | 8,051 |
Monmouth | 42.99% | 112,383 | 53.79% | 140,628 | 3.22% | 8,408 |
Morris | 43.60% | 93,763 | 53.38% | 114,783 | 3.02% | 6,492 |
Ocean | 33.72% | 75,597 | 63.29% | 141,902 | 2.99% | 6,723 |
Passaic | 57.75% | 86,242 | 39.10% | 58,382 | 3.15% | 4,700 |
Salem | 38.04% | 9,060 | 57.47% | 13,687 | 4.49% | 1,068 |
Somerset | 51.67% | 70,359 | 45.07% | 61,373 | 3.26% | 4,450 |
Sussex | 33.23% | 20,229 | 61.96% | 37,720 | 4.81% | 2,926 |
Union | 64.22% | 117,937 | 33.09% | 60,758 | 2.69% | 4,938 |
Warren | 35.59% | 14,452 | 60.00% | 24,357 | 4.41% | 1,794 | |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Results by congressional district
Menendez won 6 of 12 congressional districts. Hugin, however, won the remaining 6, including five won by Democrats.
External links
Official campaign websites
Notes and References
- News: United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018 - Ballotpedia. March 3, 2017. en-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20170421135216/https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2018. April 21, 2017. live.
- Web site: 2018 General Election Timeline . . October 31, 2018 . December 28, 2018.
- Web site: 2018 Senate Race ratings | the Cook Political Report . www.cookpolitical.com . January 11, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181130110636/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings . November 30, 2018 . dead.
- Web site: Gov-Elect Murphy breaks silence on Menendez . nj.com . November 17, 2017 . en-US . January 11, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180112044953/http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/murphy_breaks_silence_on_menendez_id_nothing_about.html . January 12, 2018 . live .
- News: After a Year of Turmoil, Menendez Announces He Is Seeking Re-Election. March 28, 2018. The New York Times. June 11, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180612222343/https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/28/nyregion/senator-menendez-election-new-jersey.html. June 12, 2018. live.
- Web site: Lisa McCormick – Fighting back to protect democracy. lisamccormick.org. February 2, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180208003731/http://lisamccormick.org/. February 8, 2018. live.
- Web site: DDHQ 2018 Senate Races Ratings – Democratic Seats (Part I). January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20170815023609/https://decisiondeskhq.com/upcoming-races/ddhq-2018-senate-races-ratings-democratic-seats-part-i/. August 15, 2017. dead.
- Web site: Former Obama, Clinton campaign official to face Sen. Bob Menendez in primary. January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20171209233850/http://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/04/former-obama-clinton-campaign-official-face-u-s-sen-bob-menendez-primary/920121001/. December 9, 2017. live.
- Web site: Guild. Blair. Former Clinton campaign staffer explores primary challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez. CBS News. December 10, 2017. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171211055416/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/former-clinton-campaign-staffer-explores-primary-challenge-to-sen-bob-menendez/. December 11, 2017. live.
- Web site: Hutchins. Ryan. Former Clinton, Obama staffer drops primary challenge against Menendez. Politico New Jersey. March 4, 2018. March 2, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180305142629/https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/03/02/former-clinton-obama-staffer-drops-primary-challenge-against-menendez-290672. March 5, 2018. live.
- Web site: Jordan, Bob . April 1, 2015 . What does the future hold for Menendez's Senate seat? . November 26, 2016 . App.com.
- News: Torricelli Will Not Primary Menendez in 2018. Alfaro. Alyana. November 16, 2017. Observer.com. https://web.archive.org/web/20171117065517/http://observer.com/2017/11/torricelli-will-not-primary-menendez-in-2018/. November 17, 2017. live.
- Web site: Hugin launches campaign to unseat Menendez. February 13, 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617170048/https://savejersey.com/2018/02/bob-hugin-menendez-senate-new-jersey-republican-candidate/. June 17, 2018. live.
- Web site: Hugin flexes money muscle, preempts Menendez with February TV Spot. February 27, 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617165714/https://savejersey.com/2018/02/njsen-hugin-flexes-money-muscle-preempts-menendez-february-tv-spot/. June 17, 2018. live.
- Web site: Menendez could be in for dogfight for Senate seat. May 25, 2018 . ROINJ. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617165652/http://www.roi-nj.com/2018/05/25/politics/menendez-could-be-in-for-dogfight-for-senate-seat-fdu-poll/. June 17, 2018. live.
- Web site: GOP longshots Goldberg, Grossman team up at the Jersey Shore. May 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617170046/https://savejersey.com/2018/05/brian-goldberg-seth-grossman-new-jersey-senate-congress-primary-republican/. June 17, 2018. live.
- Web site: N.J. Senate primary candidate: Write in "Charlton Heston" over GOP's House incumbents (and recruits). May 30, 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617165856/https://savejersey.com/2018/05/hugin-goldberg-senate-new-jersey-macarthur-congress-lance-smith/. June 17, 2018. live.
- Web site: Official List Candidates for US Senate For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/05/2018 . New Jersey Department of State . July 20, 2018 . December 28, 2018 .
- Web site: Menendez just got a top-tier Republican challenger in U.S. Senate race. February 12, 2018 . February 13, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180212204523/http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/02/menendez_just_got_a_top-tier_republican_challenger.html. February 12, 2018. live.
- Web site: Goldberg Readies Second Run for U.S. Senate in 2018 -. savejersey.com. April 13, 2017 . en-US. April 26, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170427003937/https://savejersey.com/2017/04/brian-goldberg-candidate-senate-menendez-new-jersey/. April 27, 2017. live.
- Web site: Singh to Run for U.S. Senate . insidernj.com . February 2018 . en-US . February 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180202012432/https://www.insidernj.com/singh-run-u-s-senate/ . February 2, 2018 . live .
- Web site: Federal Election Commission - New Jersey - Senate. September 20, 2017. September 26, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170926100530/https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/NJ/2018/. September 26, 2017. live.
- Web site: Pezzullo backs Hugin. PoliticsDW.com. Wildstein. David. February 13, 2018. February 13, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180214073823/http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/pezzullo-drops-senate-bid-back-hugin/. February 14, 2018. live.
- Web site: CD6 Flashpoint: Pezzullo Declares Challenge to Pallone. Insider NJ. March 11, 2018. March 4, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180305202627/https://www.insidernj.com/cd6-flashpoint-pezzullo-declares-challenge-pallone/. March 5, 2018. live.
- Web site: CONFIRMED: Singh will enter the GOP's NJ-02 primary ». February 16, 2018. February 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180217003238/https://savejersey.com/2018/02/hirsh-singh-republican-congress-candidate/. February 17, 2018. live.
- Web site: Wildstein . David . Ex-Sanders Democrat joins race for GOP Senate nod . PoliticsDW . January 27, 2018 . January 26, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180128074805/http://politicsdw.com/2018/01/ex-progressive-democrat-joins-race-for-gop-senate-nod/ . January 28, 2018 . live .
- News: Ciattarelli has Not Ruled out Running Against Menendez. Pizarro. Max. November 16, 2017. Insider NJ. https://web.archive.org/web/20171118071613/https://www.insidernj.com/ciattarelli-not-ruled-running-menendez/. November 18, 2017. live.
- Web site: Catalini. Michael. GOP Senate hopeful jabs Menendez, distances self from Trump. AP. February 25, 2018. February 13, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180214023729/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/gop-senate-hopeful-jabs-menendez-distances-self-from-trump/2018/02/13/b6559a64-1104-11e8-a68c-e9374188170e_story.html. February 14, 2018. dead.
- Web site: Pizarro. Max. Doherty Says He'd Serve Again as Trump's NJ State Director. Insider NJ. January 22, 2018. January 20, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180123073007/https://www.insidernj.com/doherty-says-hed-serve-trumps-nj-state-director/. January 23, 2018. live.
- Web site: Kean: Most popular choice for Chris Christie . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140820101121/http://conservativeintel.com/2013/03/28/most-popular-choice/ . August 20, 2014 . November 18, 2014 . Conservative Intelligence Briefing.
- Web site: Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno entering 2017 N.J. governor race. January 12, 2017. October 16, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170730113311/http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/guadagno_will_enter_nj_governor_race_reports_say.html. July 30, 2017. live.
- Web site: Hetrick . Christian . November 17, 2017 . The Republicans Who Could Challenge Menendez . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20171123143420/http://observer.com/2017/11/the-republicans-who-could-challenge-menendez/ . November 23, 2017 . November 22, 2017 . Observer.
- Web site: WATSON, JERRY B - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180108182029/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4NJ00300/. January 8, 2018. live.
- Web site: Westhoven. William. Jay Webber says he's 'all-in' for run to replace Frelinghuysen. Daily Record. February 3, 2018. February 3, 2018.
- Web site: Sabrin to Seek Libertarian Party Nomination for U.S. Senate - Insider NJ. January 25, 2018. January 25, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180126012854/https://www.insidernj.com/sabrin-seek-libertarian-party-nomination-u-s-senate/. January 26, 2018. live.
- News: 20 years later, Hoffman again running with the Green Party. Biryukov. Nikita. July 17, 2018. New Jersey Globe. August 7, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180808073132/https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/20-years-later-hoffman-again-running-with-green-party/. August 8, 2018. live.
- Web site: Outsiders: Six Other Candidates Campaign for Senate Seat . O'Dea, Colleen . October 24, 2018 . NJ Spotlight . December 28, 2018.
- Web site: USMAN, MUHAMMAD - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180108192046/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8NJ00442/. January 8, 2018. live.
- Web site: Campaign finance data. October 31, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180726234103/https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/NJ/2018/. July 26, 2018. live.
- Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
- Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
- Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171012072206/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-senate/. October 12, 2017. live.
- Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180614221216/https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races/senate. June 14, 2018. live.
- Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180709194218/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html. July 9, 2018. live.
- Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180704201036/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/midterms-2018.html. July 4, 2018. live.
- https://web.archive.org/web/20181105045503/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059296108386562048 Change Research
- https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj11052018_nhce62.pdf Quinnipiac University
- https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1102-statewide-poll-2-wfs.pdf Stockton University
- https://web.archive.org/web/20181031173925/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NJ-Statewide-Survey-Results-10.30.18.pdf Vox Populi Polling
- https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj Emerson College
- http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/menendez-hugin-october2018/ Rutgers-Eagleton
- https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj10172018_nrpv59.pdf Quinnipiac University
- https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_101818.pdf Monmouth University
- Madelyn Hoffman (G) with 1%, other with 1%
- https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/internal-poll-shows-bob-hugin-within-two-points-of-bob-menendez-in-new-jersey National Research Inc. (R-Hugin)
- https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0gqikwg9lw/cbs_20181007_NJ_final.pdf YouGov
- https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj10032018_nqxi76.pdf Quinnipiac University
- https://web.archive.org/web/20181003181833/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NJ-Statewide-Topline-Results-Oct-2018.pdf Vox Populi Polling
- http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2018/181003/final.pdf Fairleigh Dickinson University
- https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/nj-statewide-2018-poll-wfs.pdf Stockton University
- https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj08222018_ndhy27.pdf Quinnipiac University
- https://web.archive.org/web/20180820235053/https://sabrinforsenate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/SabrinPollAugust2018.pdf Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin)
- https://www.scribd.com/document/383965405/New-Jersey-Gravis-Marketing-Poll Gravis Marketing
- http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2018/180525/final.pdf Fairleigh Dickinson University
- https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_041218.pdf Monmouth University
- https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj03132018_nmlv52.pdf Quinnipiac University
- https://web.archive.org/web/20140820101121/http://conservativeintel.com/2013/03/28/most-popular-choice/ Harper Polling
- Web site: Official Site of The State of New Jersey . NJ DOS - Division of Elections - 2018 Election Results . New Jersey Department of State . May 15, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200911125454/https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/election-information-2018.shtml#gid=1542355931 . September 11, 2020 . bot: unknown .