2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey
Country:New Jersey
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:53.38%
Image1:File:Robert Menendez official Senate portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Bob Menendez
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,711,654
Percentage1:54.01%
Nominee2:Bob Hugin
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,357,355
Percentage2:42.83%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Bob Menendez
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Bob Menendez
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Jersey. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Menendez won reelection to a third term over Republican businessman Bob Hugin.

The candidate filing deadline was April 2, 2018, for Democratic and Republican candidates, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018.[1] The deadline for independent candidates was June 5, 2018.[2]

Despite the race being rated as a tossup by some political pundits, including The Cook Political Report,[3] Menendez was reelected by an 11.2% margin. However, Hugin was the first Republican Senate candidate to carry Atlantic and Gloucester counties since Clifford Case's landslide victory in 1972.

Democratic primary

While he never lost support from any major New Jersey officials, after a mistrial was declared in Senator Menendez's corruption trial, party figures across New Jersey lined up with public endorsements of his reelection bid, including the "full support" of Governor Phil Murphy.[4] He formally declared his intention to run for reelection on March 28, 2018, alongside Governor Murphy and Senator Cory Booker.[5]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in Primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Republican primary

Bob Hugin launched his primary campaign on February 13 in Springfield.[13] He began advertising on television two weeks later, attacking Menendez on the airwaves,[14] and was soon considered the presumptive nominee.[15] His opponent, Brian Goldberg, attempted to connect himself to President Donald Trump and his supporters by inserting the President's abbreviated slogan, "MAGA", into his ballot slogans and aligning himself with other pro-Trump, anti-establishment candidates.[16] Goldberg also attacked Hugin's running mates, urging Republicans to write in the deceased Charlton Heston in primary races where a Republican congressional candidate was running unopposed.[17] Ultimately, Hugin won overwhelmingly with a majority of votes in each of the state's 21 counties.[18]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in Primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Endorsements

Green Party

Independents

Candidates

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Bob Hugin (R)$30,289,561$27,714,323$2,575,238
Bob Menendez (D)$11,631,183$11,225,693$1,832,385
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[40] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[41] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] November 5, 2018
CNN[43] October 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[44] October 3, 2018
Fox News[45] October 30, 2018
^Highest rating given

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Menendez (D)
Bob
Hugin (R)
Murray
Sabrin (L)
OtherUndecided
Change Research[46] November 2–4, 20181,006 align=center51%41%
Quinnipiac University[47] October 29 – November 4, 20181,115± 4.0% align=center55%40%1%4%
Stockton University[48] October 25–31, 2018598± 4.0% align=center51%39%3%4%1%
Vox Populi Polling[49] October 27–29, 2018814± 3.4% align=center54%46%
Emerson College[50] October 24–26, 2018659± 4.0% align=center47%42%4%7%
Rutgers-Eagleton[51] October 12–19, 2018496 LV± 5.1% align=center51%46%1%2%
896 RV± 3.8% align=center48%45%1%5%
Quinnipiac University[52] October 10–16, 2018873± 4.3% align=center51%44%0%5%
Monmouth University[53] October 11–15, 2018527± 4.3% align=center49%40%1%2%[54] 8%
National Research Inc. (R-Hugin)[55] October 6–9, 2018600± 4.0% align=center42%40%
YouGov[56] October 2–5, 2018845 align=center49%39%4%8%
Quinnipiac University[57] September 25 – October 2, 20181,058± 4.1% align=center53%42%0%5%
Vox Populi Polling[58] September 29 – October 1, 2018794± 3.5% align=center52%48%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[59] September 26–30, 2018508 LV± 4.3% align=center43%37%1%19%
746 RV± 3.9% align=center37%32%1%29%
Stockton University[60] September 19–27, 2018531± 4.3% align=center45%43%3%5%2%
Quinnipiac University[61] August 15–20, 2018908± 4.6% align=center43%37%2%16%
Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin)[62] August 14–15, 2018753± 3.6% align=center40%30%7%22%
Gravis Marketing[63] July 6–10, 2018563± 4.1% align=center43%41%16%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[64] May 16–21, 2018856± 3.5% align=center28%24%1% align=center46%
Monmouth University[65] April 6–10, 2018632± 3.9% align=center53%32%7%7%
Quinnipiac University[66] March 8–12, 20181,052± 4.2% align=center49%32%1%15%

Kean vs. Andrews

Codey vs. Kyrillos

Results by county

[68]

CountyMenendez %Menendez votesHugin %Hugin votesOther %Other votes
Atlantic47.43% 44,617 48.85% 45,954 3.72% 3,502
Bergen54.69% 188,23542.54% 146,406 2.77% 9,542
Burlington52.78% 98,74943.96% 82,240 3.26% 6,111
Camden61.82% 113,13734.58% 63,279 3.60% 6,600
Cape May35.78% 14,555 61.02% 24,823 3.20% 1,299
Cumberland48.29% 19,38647.93% 19,244 3.78% 1,517
Essex76.52% 194,06821.12% 53,537 2.36% 6,028
Gloucester46.41% 52,303 49.77% 56,090 3.82% 4,309
Hudson76.35% 132,18020.84% 36,087 2.81% 4,863
Hunterdon39.29% 24,823 57.17% 36,116 3.54% 2,195
Mercer63.67% 80,77332.50% 41,225 3.83% 4,785
Middlesex58.21% 148,80638.64% 98,764 3.15% 8,051
Monmouth42.99% 112,383 53.79% 140,628 3.22% 8,408
Morris43.60% 93,763 53.38% 114,783 3.02% 6,492
Ocean33.72% 75,597 63.29% 141,902 2.99% 6,723
Passaic57.75% 86,24239.10% 58,382 3.15% 4,700
Salem38.04% 9,060 57.47% 13,687 4.49% 1,068
Somerset51.67% 70,35945.07% 61,373 3.26% 4,450
Sussex33.23% 20,229 61.96% 37,720 4.81% 2,926
Union64.22% 117,93733.09% 60,758 2.69% 4,938
Warren35.59% 14,452 60.00% 24,357 4.41% 1,794

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Results by congressional district

Menendez won 6 of 12 congressional districts. Hugin, however, won the remaining 6, including five won by Democrats.

DistrictMenendezHuginRepresentative
58%38%Donald Norcross
43%53%Jeff Van Drew
44%52%Andy Kim
41%56%Chris Smith
47%50%
56%41%Frank Pallone
46%51%Tom Malinowski
77%20%Albio Sires
64%33%Bill Pascrell
85%13%Donald Payne Jr.
47%50%Mikie Sherrill
63%34%Bonnie Watson Coleman

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018 - Ballotpedia. March 3, 2017. en-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20170421135216/https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2018. April 21, 2017. live.
  2. Web site: 2018 General Election Timeline . . October 31, 2018 . December 28, 2018.
  3. Web site: 2018 Senate Race ratings | the Cook Political Report . www.cookpolitical.com . January 11, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181130110636/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings . November 30, 2018 . dead.
  4. Web site: Gov-Elect Murphy breaks silence on Menendez . nj.com . November 17, 2017 . en-US . January 11, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180112044953/http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/murphy_breaks_silence_on_menendez_id_nothing_about.html . January 12, 2018 . live .
  5. News: After a Year of Turmoil, Menendez Announces He Is Seeking Re-Election. March 28, 2018. The New York Times. June 11, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180612222343/https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/28/nyregion/senator-menendez-election-new-jersey.html. June 12, 2018. live.
  6. Web site: Lisa McCormick – Fighting back to protect democracy. lisamccormick.org. February 2, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180208003731/http://lisamccormick.org/. February 8, 2018. live.
  7. Web site: DDHQ 2018 Senate Races Ratings – Democratic Seats (Part I). January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20170815023609/https://decisiondeskhq.com/upcoming-races/ddhq-2018-senate-races-ratings-democratic-seats-part-i/. August 15, 2017. dead.
  8. Web site: Former Obama, Clinton campaign official to face Sen. Bob Menendez in primary. January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20171209233850/http://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/04/former-obama-clinton-campaign-official-face-u-s-sen-bob-menendez-primary/920121001/. December 9, 2017. live.
  9. Web site: Guild. Blair. Former Clinton campaign staffer explores primary challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez. CBS News. December 10, 2017. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171211055416/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/former-clinton-campaign-staffer-explores-primary-challenge-to-sen-bob-menendez/. December 11, 2017. live.
  10. Web site: Hutchins. Ryan. Former Clinton, Obama staffer drops primary challenge against Menendez. Politico New Jersey. March 4, 2018. March 2, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180305142629/https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/03/02/former-clinton-obama-staffer-drops-primary-challenge-against-menendez-290672. March 5, 2018. live.
  11. Web site: Jordan, Bob . April 1, 2015 . What does the future hold for Menendez's Senate seat? . November 26, 2016 . App.com.
  12. News: Torricelli Will Not Primary Menendez in 2018. Alfaro. Alyana. November 16, 2017. Observer.com. https://web.archive.org/web/20171117065517/http://observer.com/2017/11/torricelli-will-not-primary-menendez-in-2018/. November 17, 2017. live.
  13. Web site: Hugin launches campaign to unseat Menendez. February 13, 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617170048/https://savejersey.com/2018/02/bob-hugin-menendez-senate-new-jersey-republican-candidate/. June 17, 2018. live.
  14. Web site: Hugin flexes money muscle, preempts Menendez with February TV Spot. February 27, 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617165714/https://savejersey.com/2018/02/njsen-hugin-flexes-money-muscle-preempts-menendez-february-tv-spot/. June 17, 2018. live.
  15. Web site: Menendez could be in for dogfight for Senate seat. May 25, 2018 . ROINJ. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617165652/http://www.roi-nj.com/2018/05/25/politics/menendez-could-be-in-for-dogfight-for-senate-seat-fdu-poll/. June 17, 2018. live.
  16. Web site: GOP longshots Goldberg, Grossman team up at the Jersey Shore. May 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617170046/https://savejersey.com/2018/05/brian-goldberg-seth-grossman-new-jersey-senate-congress-primary-republican/. June 17, 2018. live.
  17. Web site: N.J. Senate primary candidate: Write in "Charlton Heston" over GOP's House incumbents (and recruits). May 30, 2018 . Save Jersey. June 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617165856/https://savejersey.com/2018/05/hugin-goldberg-senate-new-jersey-macarthur-congress-lance-smith/. June 17, 2018. live.
  18. Web site: Official List Candidates for US Senate For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/05/2018 . New Jersey Department of State . July 20, 2018 . December 28, 2018 .
  19. Web site: Menendez just got a top-tier Republican challenger in U.S. Senate race. February 12, 2018 . February 13, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180212204523/http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/02/menendez_just_got_a_top-tier_republican_challenger.html. February 12, 2018. live.
  20. Web site: Goldberg Readies Second Run for U.S. Senate in 2018 -. savejersey.com. April 13, 2017 . en-US. April 26, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170427003937/https://savejersey.com/2017/04/brian-goldberg-candidate-senate-menendez-new-jersey/. April 27, 2017. live.
  21. Web site: Singh to Run for U.S. Senate . insidernj.com . February 2018 . en-US . February 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180202012432/https://www.insidernj.com/singh-run-u-s-senate/ . February 2, 2018 . live .
  22. Web site: Federal Election Commission - New Jersey - Senate. September 20, 2017. September 26, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170926100530/https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/NJ/2018/. September 26, 2017. live.
  23. Web site: Pezzullo backs Hugin. PoliticsDW.com. Wildstein. David. February 13, 2018. February 13, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180214073823/http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/pezzullo-drops-senate-bid-back-hugin/. February 14, 2018. live.
  24. Web site: CD6 Flashpoint: Pezzullo Declares Challenge to Pallone. Insider NJ. March 11, 2018. March 4, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180305202627/https://www.insidernj.com/cd6-flashpoint-pezzullo-declares-challenge-pallone/. March 5, 2018. live.
  25. Web site: CONFIRMED: Singh will enter the GOP's NJ-02 primary ». February 16, 2018. February 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180217003238/https://savejersey.com/2018/02/hirsh-singh-republican-congress-candidate/. February 17, 2018. live.
  26. Web site: Wildstein . David . Ex-Sanders Democrat joins race for GOP Senate nod . PoliticsDW . January 27, 2018 . January 26, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180128074805/http://politicsdw.com/2018/01/ex-progressive-democrat-joins-race-for-gop-senate-nod/ . January 28, 2018 . live .
  27. News: Ciattarelli has Not Ruled out Running Against Menendez. Pizarro. Max. November 16, 2017. Insider NJ. https://web.archive.org/web/20171118071613/https://www.insidernj.com/ciattarelli-not-ruled-running-menendez/. November 18, 2017. live.
  28. Web site: Catalini. Michael. GOP Senate hopeful jabs Menendez, distances self from Trump. AP. February 25, 2018. February 13, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180214023729/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/gop-senate-hopeful-jabs-menendez-distances-self-from-trump/2018/02/13/b6559a64-1104-11e8-a68c-e9374188170e_story.html. February 14, 2018. dead.
  29. Web site: Pizarro. Max. Doherty Says He'd Serve Again as Trump's NJ State Director. Insider NJ. January 22, 2018. January 20, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180123073007/https://www.insidernj.com/doherty-says-hed-serve-trumps-nj-state-director/. January 23, 2018. live.
  30. Web site: Kean: Most popular choice for Chris Christie . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140820101121/http://conservativeintel.com/2013/03/28/most-popular-choice/ . August 20, 2014 . November 18, 2014 . Conservative Intelligence Briefing.
  31. Web site: Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno entering 2017 N.J. governor race. January 12, 2017. October 16, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170730113311/http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/guadagno_will_enter_nj_governor_race_reports_say.html. July 30, 2017. live.
  32. Web site: Hetrick . Christian . November 17, 2017 . The Republicans Who Could Challenge Menendez . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20171123143420/http://observer.com/2017/11/the-republicans-who-could-challenge-menendez/ . November 23, 2017 . November 22, 2017 . Observer.
  33. Web site: WATSON, JERRY B - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180108182029/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4NJ00300/. January 8, 2018. live.
  34. Web site: Westhoven. William. Jay Webber says he's 'all-in' for run to replace Frelinghuysen. Daily Record. February 3, 2018. February 3, 2018.
  35. Web site: Sabrin to Seek Libertarian Party Nomination for U.S. Senate - Insider NJ. January 25, 2018. January 25, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180126012854/https://www.insidernj.com/sabrin-seek-libertarian-party-nomination-u-s-senate/. January 26, 2018. live.
  36. News: 20 years later, Hoffman again running with the Green Party. Biryukov. Nikita. July 17, 2018. New Jersey Globe. August 7, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180808073132/https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/20-years-later-hoffman-again-running-with-green-party/. August 8, 2018. live.
  37. Web site: Outsiders: Six Other Candidates Campaign for Senate Seat . O'Dea, Colleen . October 24, 2018 . NJ Spotlight . December 28, 2018.
  38. Web site: USMAN, MUHAMMAD - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. January 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180108192046/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8NJ00442/. January 8, 2018. live.
  39. Web site: Campaign finance data. October 31, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180726234103/https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/NJ/2018/. July 26, 2018. live.
  40. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  41. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  42. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171012072206/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-senate/. October 12, 2017. live.
  43. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180614221216/https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races/senate. June 14, 2018. live.
  44. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180709194218/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html. July 9, 2018. live.
  45. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180704201036/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/midterms-2018.html. July 4, 2018. live.
  46. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105045503/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059296108386562048 Change Research
  47. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj11052018_nhce62.pdf Quinnipiac University
  48. https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1102-statewide-poll-2-wfs.pdf Stockton University
  49. https://web.archive.org/web/20181031173925/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NJ-Statewide-Survey-Results-10.30.18.pdf Vox Populi Polling
  50. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj Emerson College
  51. http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/menendez-hugin-october2018/ Rutgers-Eagleton
  52. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj10172018_nrpv59.pdf Quinnipiac University
  53. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_101818.pdf Monmouth University
  54. Madelyn Hoffman (G) with 1%, other with 1%
  55. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/internal-poll-shows-bob-hugin-within-two-points-of-bob-menendez-in-new-jersey National Research Inc. (R-Hugin)
  56. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0gqikwg9lw/cbs_20181007_NJ_final.pdf YouGov
  57. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj10032018_nqxi76.pdf Quinnipiac University
  58. https://web.archive.org/web/20181003181833/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NJ-Statewide-Topline-Results-Oct-2018.pdf Vox Populi Polling
  59. http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2018/181003/final.pdf Fairleigh Dickinson University
  60. https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/nj-statewide-2018-poll-wfs.pdf Stockton University
  61. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj08222018_ndhy27.pdf Quinnipiac University
  62. https://web.archive.org/web/20180820235053/https://sabrinforsenate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/SabrinPollAugust2018.pdf Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin)
  63. https://www.scribd.com/document/383965405/New-Jersey-Gravis-Marketing-Poll Gravis Marketing
  64. http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2018/180525/final.pdf Fairleigh Dickinson University
  65. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_041218.pdf Monmouth University
  66. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj03132018_nmlv52.pdf Quinnipiac University
  67. https://web.archive.org/web/20140820101121/http://conservativeintel.com/2013/03/28/most-popular-choice/ Harper Polling
  68. Web site: Official Site of The State of New Jersey . NJ DOS - Division of Elections - 2018 Election Results . New Jersey Department of State . May 15, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200911125454/https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/election-information-2018.shtml#gid=1542355931 . September 11, 2020 . bot: unknown .