2018 United States Senate election in Michigan explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
Country:Michigan
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Michigan
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Michigan
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:56.72%
Image1:File:Debbie Stabenow, official photo, 116th Congress (1).jpg
Nominee1:Debbie Stabenow
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:2,214,478
Percentage1:52.26%
Nominee2:John James
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,938,818
Percentage2:45.76%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Debbie Stabenow
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Debbie Stabenow
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]

Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary

Failed to qualify

Declined

Withdrew

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[20]

Polling

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
James
Sandy
Pensler
OtherUndecided
Mitchell Research[21] July 30, 2018413± 5.0% align=center44%30%26%
EPIC-MRA[22] July 21–22, 20181,045± 3.1% align=center39%38%23%
Emerson College[23] July 19–21, 2018202± 7.3%28%28% align=center44%
Marist College[24] July 15–19, 2018337± 6.3% align=center30%23%1% align=center46%
National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC)[25] July 11–14, 2018600± 4.0%21% align=center28%10% align=center41%
Target-Insyght[26] June 24–26, 2018400± 5.0%29% align=center32% align=center39%
Strategic National (R)[27] June 16–21, 20181,000± 3.1%18% align=center33% align=center49%
Strategic National (R)[28] June 9–10, 2018400± 4.9%16% align=center29% align=center54%
Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler)[29] May 28–29, 2018627± 3.8%26% align=center36% align=center38%
Strategic National (R)[30] April 21, 2018350± 5.2%13% align=center26% align=center61%
Strategic National (R)[31] April 4–5, 2018600± 4.0%12% align=center20% align=center68%
Denno Research[32] April 2–3, 2018500± 4.0%12% align=center16% align=center72%
Strategic National (R)[33] March 19–20, 2018400± 4.9%17% align=center21% align=center62%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
James
Sandy
Pensler
Fred
Upton
Robert
Young
Undecided
Strategic National (R)[34] December 16–17, 2017600± 4.0%9%5% align=center11% align=center75%
Target-Insyght[35] November 1–6, 20171,000 align=center24%19%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Lena
Epstein
Bob
Young
John
James
Robert
Ritchie
Undecided
Zogby Analytics[36] September, 20177%3%5% align=center29% align=center56%
Trafalgar Group (R)[37] July 25–27, 20171,078± 3.1%9%6%7% align=center50%28%
Target-Insyght[38] July 25–27, 2017344± 5.358%14%16% align=center33%29%

Results

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Debbie Stabenow (D)$17,449,325.17$15,720,981.25$2,842,613.58
John James (R)$9,838,137.84$7,953,403.16$1,884,735.02
Source: Federal Election Commission[42]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[43] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[44] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] November 5, 2018
CNN[46] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[47] November 5, 2018
Fox News[48] November 5, 2018

Polling


Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Stabenow (D)
John
James (R)
OtherUndecided
Mitchell Research[49] November 5, 2018827± 3.4% align=center49%46%1%4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[50] November 2–5, 20181,817± 2.3% align=center53%44%1%2%
Mitchell Research[51] November 4, 2018701± 3.7% align=center53%46%0%1%
Change Research[52] November 2–4, 2018880 align=center49%47%3%[53]
Research Co.[54] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6% align=center52%36%1%11%
Gravis Marketing[55] October 29–30, 2018764± 3.6% align=center54%41%6%
Glengariff Group[56] October 25–27, 2018600± 4.0% align=center53%36%3%[57] 8%
Emerson College[58] October 24–26, 2018822± 3.6% align=center52%43%1%4%
Mitchell Research[59] October 25, 2018400± 5.0% align=center52%46%0%2%
Target-Insyght[60] October 22–24, 2018800± 3.0% align=center53%43%4%[61] 1%
EPIC-MRA[62] October 18–23, 2018600± 4.0% align=center49%42%5%4%
The Tarrance Group (R)[63] October 20–22, 2018605± 4.1% align=center48%41%4%7%
Michigan State University[64] October 13–22, 2018169 align=center49%42%
Marketing Resource Group[65] October 14–18, 2018600± 4.0% align=center53%37%5%
Mitchell Research[66] September 30 – October 7, 2018654± 3.8% align=center51%42%8%
Glengariff Group[67] September 30 – October 2, 2018600± 4.0% align=center53%35%3%10%
EPIC-MRA[68] September 21–25, 2018600± 4.0% align=center56%33%5%6%
Ipsos[69] September 14–24, 20181,150± 3.0% align=center55%35%4%6%
Target-Insyght[70] September 10–14, 2018800± 3.0% align=center55%40%
Mitchell Research[71] September 12–13, 20181,009± 3.0% align=center54%41%5%
Strategic National (R)[72] September 8–9, 20181,000± 3.1% align=center53%35%11%
Glengariff Group[73] September 5–7, 2018600± 4.0% align=center56%33%2%10%
Gravis Marketing[74] August 14–16, 2018647± 3.9% align=center51%35%14%
Strategic National (R)[75] August 13–14, 2018700± 3.7% align=center50%35%2%13%
The Tarrance Group (R)[76] August 11–14, 2018602± 4.1% align=center49%38%3%9%
Emerson College[77] July 19–21, 2018600± 4.3% align=center47%29%8%17%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018886± 3.9% align=center55%37%1%8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[78] June 11 – July 2, 2018978± 5.0% align=center54%42%4%
Glengariff Group[79] January 16–19, 2018600± 4.0% align=center51%30%18%
with Sandy Pensler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Stabenow (D)
Sandy
Pensler (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[80] July 19–21, 2018600± 4.3% align=center48%32%7%13%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018886± 3.9% align=center52%37%1%10%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJune 11 – July 2, 2018978± 5.0% align=center53%41%5%
Glengariff GroupJanuary 16–19, 2018600± 4.0% align=center51%30%18%

with generic Democrat and Republican

with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Stabenow (D)
Robert
Ritchie (R)
Undecided
Mitchell/Rosetta Stone[82] October 1, 2017558± 4.2% align=center46%38%16%
Zogby Analytics[83] September 19, 2017800± 3.4% align=center46%36%18%
Marketing Resource Group[84] September 13–18, 2017600± 4.0% align=center52%34%14%
Target-Insyght[85] July 25–27, 2017822± 3.5% align=center50%42%8%
Trafalgar Group (R)July 25–27, 20171,078± 3.1%46% align=center49%5%

Results

Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[86] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Both Stabenow and James won 7 of 14 congressional districts.[87]

DistrictJamesStabenowRepresentative
54.39%43.44%Jack Bergman
55.19%42.52%Bill Huizenga
51.08%46.67%Justin Amash
56.73%41.01%John Moolenaar
43.05%54.73%Dan Kildee
50.37%47.18%Fred Upton
52.94%45.02%Tim Walberg
49.0%49.37%Elissa Slotkin
39.7%58.46%Andy Levin
58.1%40.1%Paul Mitchell
47.76%50.87%Haley Stevens
31.93%66.32%Debbie Dingell
17.8%79.87%Rashida Tlaib
19.55%78.9%Brenda Lawrence

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: John James endorsement from President Donald Trump after primary. . 8 August 2018 .
  2. Web site: Green Party of Michigan Nominating Convention.
  3. Web site: 2018 Michigan Official General Election Results - 11/06/2018. mielections.us.
  4. Web site: Stabenow defeats James in Michigan's U.S. Senate race. Detroit News.
  5. Web site: Susan J. Demas: Can Republicans finally knock off Debbie Stabenow in 2018?. Demas, Susan J.. MLive.com. October 2, 2015. November 20, 2016.
  6. Web site: Reeling Democrats confront brutal 2018 Senate map. Everett, Burgess. Politico. November 17, 2016. November 20, 2016.
  7. Web site: Michigan Democrats promise 'fight' at record convention. The Detroit News. Oosting. Jonathan. February 11, 2017. February 13, 2017.
  8. Web site: Metro Detroit businessman John James joins U.S. Senate race.
  9. Web site: 2018 Michigan Unofficial Primary Candidate Listing - 08/07/2018. miboecfr.nictusa.com.
  10. Web site: Businessman Sandy Pensler announces U.S. Senate run. 20 November 2017 .
  11. News: Michigan Historic Preservationist Bob Carr announces candidacy for US Senate. Boothe. Daniel. 2017-10-24. en.
  12. Web site: Michigan GOP sees opening for U.S. Senate bid in 2018. Detroit Free Press. Gray. Kathleen. February 19, 2017. February 21, 2017.
  13. Web site: Ted Nugent Considering Running for U.S. Senate. Ultimate Classic Rock.
  14. Web site: Kid Rock: Of course I'm not running for Senate. Detroit Free Press. McCollum. Brian. October 24, 2017. October 24, 2017.
  15. Web site: Rep. Upton considers challenge to Sen. Stabenow. The Detroit News. Nann Burke. Melissa. February 1, 2017. February 7, 2017.
  16. Web site: U.S. Rep. Fred Upton opts against Senate run.
  17. Web site: Raczkowski, Epstein enter race to succeed Trott.
  18. Web site: Young drops out of GOP Senate race in Michigan.
  19. Web site: Young endorses James in GOP primary for Senate.
  20. Web site: Pro-life record, support of Trump tackled in Michigan GOP U.S. Senate debate. mlive.com. 6 July 2018 .
  21. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_GOV-SEN_11_CD-GOP_Primary_Press_Release__8-1-2018.pdf Mitchell Research
  22. http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_GOP_Primary_July2018_Media_Freq.pdf EPIC-MRA
  23. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-mi-7.23.pdf Emerson College
  24. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Michigan-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_July-26-2018_1807251152.pdf Marist College
  25. https://www.scribd.com/document/384138575/MI-Sen-National-Research-R-for-Outsider-PAC-July-2018 National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC)
  26. https://www.scribd.com/document/382871404/MI-Gov-MI-Sen-Target-Insyght-June-2018 Target-Insyght
  27. http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-gop-primary-results/ Strategic National (R)
  28. http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-gop-primary-poll-results-4/ Strategic National (R)
  29. http://mrgmi.com/2018/05/breaking-poll-pensler-leads-by-10-percent-in-u-s-senate-primary/ Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler)
  30. http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-gop-primary-poll-results-3/ Strategic National (R)
  31. http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-gop-primary-poll-results-2/ Strategic National (R)
  32. https://www.scribd.com/document/376112912/MI-Sen-MI-Gov-Denno-Research-April-2018 Denno Research
  33. http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-gop-primary-poll-results/ Strategic National (R)
  34. https://www.scribd.com/document/367611896/MI-Gov-MI-Sen-Strategic-National-R-Dec-2017 Strategic National (R)
  35. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/14/1715295/-Morning-Digest-Top-Republicans-call-on-Roy-Moore-to-quit-Senate-race-as-new-allegations-mount Target-Insyght
  36. https://zogbyanalytics.com/soundbites/808-poll-kid-rock-riding-trump-train-to-us-senate-leads-gop-field Zogby Analytics
  37. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitRFpUd3lHV21ZdGs/view Trafalgar Group (R)
  38. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/31/poll-kid-rock-trails-stabenow/104176822/ Target-Insyght
  39. Web site: Mich. House OKs dead lawmaker's bill in vote of unity.
  40. Web site: Green Party candidates jump in race for Michigan governor, U.S. Senator. Cwiek, Sarah. Michigan Radio. August 31, 2017. October 27, 2017.
  41. Web site: Why I Suspended My Senatorial Campaign. motownbelle. 20 October 2017. YouTube.
  42. Web site: Campaign finance data. September 24, 2018.
  43. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  44. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  45. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 4, 2018.
  46. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
  47. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
  48. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
  49. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf Mitchell Research
  50. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bC6TCKaGIK_F3UP1w9F0sIaS-RWWtSYE/view The Trafalgar Group (R)
  51. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_11-18_Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11-5-18_.pdf Mitchell Research
  52. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105224427/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059563232539471872 Change Research
  53. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  54. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_04Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
  55. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Michigan_Statewide_October_30_2018_v2.pdf Gravis Marketing
  56. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/29/michigan-poll-debbie-stabenow-john-james-senate-race/1807448002/ Glengariff Group
  57. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0%
  58. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj Emerson College
  59. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_8-18_Press_Release_10-26-18.pdf Mitchell Research
  60. https://mirsnews.com/images/TargetInsyght_Statewide_Poll_10_25_2018_(1).pdf Target-Insyght
  61. Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  62. https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/25/free-press-poll-whitmer-lead-over-schuette-shrinks-5-points/1748709002/ EPIC-MRA
  63. https://web.archive.org/web/20181023160659/https://johnjamesforsenate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/16276-Memo-.pdf The Tarrance Group (R)
  64. http://ippsr.msu.edu/news/new-soss-three-props-winning-top-ticket-dems-narrow-races Michigan State University
  65. https://www.mrgmi.com/2018/10/democrat-candidates-maintain-lead-in-u-s-senate-secretary-of-state-and-attorney-general-races/ Marketing Resource Group
  66. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_10-18_MI_Chamber_Statewide_MI_Poll_Press_Release_10-10-18_PRESS.pdf Mitchell Research
  67. https://www.clickondetroit.com/michigan-elections/wdivdetroit-news-poll-stabenow-holds-double-digit-lead-in-michigan-s-us-senate-race Glengariff Group
  68. https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/poll-whitmer-still-ahead-in-governor-s-race/1478196720 EPIC-MRA
  69. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html Ipsos
  70. https://mirsnews.com/alert.php?alert_id=2767 Target-Insyght
  71. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Research_MI_September_21_2018.pdf Mitchell Research
  72. http://strategicnational.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/MI-Statewide-Topline-Report-20180909.pdf Strategic National (R)
  73. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/09/11/poll-michigan-senate-stabenow-james-september/1259498002/ Glengariff Group
  74. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Michigan_(August_16_2018).pdf Gravis Marketing
  75. http://s20710.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/MI-Statewide-Topline-Report-20180816-Final-3.pdf Strategic National (R)
  76. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TtqCGhCPP1oGg6pN1_BBcz27vXHBRrfZ/view The Tarrance Group (R)
  77. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-mi-7.23.pdf Emerson College
  78. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
  79. https://www.scribd.com/document/369748990/January-Statewide-Survey Glengariff Group
  80. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-mi-7.23.pdf Emerson College
  81. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH6AbyU5kapsnOLZGf3ydy7MYKjbUo-A/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
  82. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Rosetta_Stone_-_Mitchell_Poll_Kid_Rock_v_Stabenow_Press_Release_10-4-17_A.pdf Mitchell/Rosetta Stone
  83. https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/806-zogby-analytics-in-the-news-september-19-2017 Zogby Analytics
  84. http://mrgmi.com/2017/09/stabenow-is-beating-kid-rock-by-18-percent/ Marketing Resource Group
  85. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/31/poll-kid-rock-trails-stabenow/104176822/view Target-Insyght
  86. News: Weigel . David . David Weigel . The Trailer: Why Michigan's Senate candidate is asking Trump for an election eve visit . 15 April 2019 . Fred Ryan . 1 November 2018.
  87. Web site: Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. The Cook Political Report.