2018 United States Senate election in Maine explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Maine
Country:Maine
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Maine
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Maine
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:59.96%
Nominee1:Angus King
Image1:File:Angus King, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Party1:Independent
Popular Vote1:344,575
Percentage1:54.31%
Nominee2:Eric Brakey
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:223,502
Percentage2:35.23%
Nominee3:Zak Ringelstein
Image3:File:Zak Ringelstein (cropped).jpg
Party3:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote3:66,268
Percentage3:10.45%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Angus King
Before Party:Independent politician
After Election:Angus King
After Party:Independent politician

The 2018 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections, and other state and local elections. Incumbent independent Senator Angus King won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Zak Ringelstein and Republican nominee Eric Brakey. This was one of two independent-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election.

The primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[1]

The U.S. Senate elections were conducted with ranked-choice voting, as opposed to a simple plurality, after Maine voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016[2] and a June 2018 referendum sustaining the change.[3] Ranked choice voting was used in the primary elections as well.[4] The first round of each election saw a majority and the instant runoff did not need to be carried out.

Background

A part of New England, Maine was once a bastion of the Republican Party, and was one of two states to vote against Franklin Roosevelt all four times he ran for president. Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964, and Hubert Humphrey carried it in 1968 before the state reverted to form and reestablished a GOP voting streak that lasted until the 1990s. With the GOP progressively becoming more culturally conservative, the state began moving toward the Democrats, and Bill Clinton carried it in 1992. Clinton's win established a Democratic winning streak that lasted until Donald Trump won an electoral vote from the state's second congressional district in 2016 despite losing the rest of the state.[5]

The state has a tradition of electing various independent candidates to high office, such as Angus King, who served as governor of the state from 1995 to 2003. In 2012, King's decision to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Olympia Snowe dramatized the battle for the Senate, as he left open whether he would caucus with the Republicans or the Democrats.[6] He eventually decided to caucus with the Democrats and has established a center-left voting record.[7]

Independents

King said his reelection plans would not be affected by treatment for prostate cancer, which he announced he had on June 22, 2015.[8]

Candidates

Declared

Republican primary

On January 12, 2015, Maine Governor Paul LePage made a statement on Howie Carr's radio program that he might run for U.S. Senate against King, citing King's switching his endorsement in the 2014 gubernatorial election from independent candidate Eliot Cutler to Democratic candidate Mike Michaud as a "horrible thing to do".[10] The next day, LePage said his comment was a joke, though on an August 25, 2015 appearance on Carr's program, he said he was "very strongly" considering running, citing King's caucusing with Senate Democrats.[11] LePage also criticized King for his involvement in the Maine wind energy industry, saying King "ripped us off by $104 million during his eight years as governor – he ripped us off, royally, and I can’t wait until 2018 because I’m thinking that’s the guy I'm going after." A spokesman for King dismissed LePage's criticism.[12]

On May 10, 2016, LePage announced at a town hall meeting in Oakland that he would run against King unless he was hired by the Donald Trump administration.[13] On May 10, 2017, LePage decided not to run; his spokesman said he preferred to focus on being governor.[14] On July 20, 2017, LePage again said he "might" challenge King.[15] Trump personally encouraged LePage to run and offered his endorsement.[16] LePage did not file to run by the March 15, 2018 deadline.[17] [18]

Eric Brakey's campaign successfully contested 258 signatures to Max Linn's petitions to appear on the primary ballot, which meant that Linn had 10 fewer signatures than the 2,000 needed to be on the ballot. Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap then declared Linn ineligible to be a candidate, although it was too late to remove Linn's name from the ballot. Voters were informed of Linn's status when they voted, and any votes cast for him were counted as blanks.[19] Nevertheless, Linn's campaign was active on Twitter and placed campaign signs along roads in Maine. Linn signs were also seen in New Hampshire, including in Dover. Dover city officials said they would remove the signs upon request if Linn's campaign did not remove them, because Linn is not a candidate in a New Hampshire election and because the signs were placed improperly.[20] Linn appealed the decision to disqualify him to U.S. District Court in Portland, but Judge Nancy Torresen rejected Linn's request for an injunction to bar Dunlap from informing voters he is ineligible. Linn subsequently announced he would run against U.S. Senator Susan Collins in the 2020 Republican primary election.[21]

Candidates

On the ballot

Declared ineligible

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary race initially included both teacher Zak Ringelstein and homebuilder Benjamin Pollard, but Pollard withdrew to run as an independent two days after Ringelstein announced a list of 16 endorsements from Democratic state legislators.[26] Ringelstein was the only major-party candidate for Senate to be a dues-paying member of the Democratic Socialists of America in 2018.[27]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Failed to make ballot

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[33] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[34] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] November 5, 2018
Fox News[36] November 5, 2018
CNN[37] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[38] November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		RCV
round		Angus
King (I)		Eric
Brakey (R)		Zak
Ringelstein (D)		Undecided
Emerson College[39] October 27–29, 2018883± 3.5%Round 1 align=center50%37%6%7%
Critical Insights (R-Brakey)[40] October 8–16, 2018600± 3.9%Round 1 align=center41%27%7%23%
Pan Atlantic Research[41] October 1–7, 2018500± 4.4%Round 1 align=center57%30%8%5%
Self-Made Insights (R-Brakey)[42] September 27–30, 2018750± 3.4%Round 1 align=center47%36%8%–
Suffolk University[43] align=center rowspan=2August 2–6, 2018align=center rowspan=2500align=center rowspan=2± 4.4%Round 1 align=center52%25%9%15%
Round 2[44] align=center58%27%–15%

with Paul LePage

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Angus
King (I)		Paul
LePage (R)		OtherUndecided
Colby College/Boston Globe[45] September 4–10, 2016779± 3.6% align=center59%37%–4%
University of New Hampshire[46] June 15–21, 2016467± 4.5% align=center63%29%3%5%

Results

By county

CountyAngus King
Independent		Eric Brakey
Republican		Zak Ringelstein
Democratic		Write-inBlank votesMarginTotal votes
data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %
Androscoggin22,15048.0118,93141.034,3169.35120.037301.583,2196.9846,139
Aroostook14,74252.4610,76738.311,8226.4830.017682.733,97514.1528,102
Cumberland93,86059.8240,05325.5320,26212.9250.007681.7353,80734.29156,893
Franklin7,54652.165,19435.901,3839.5550.043402.352,35216.2614,468
Hancock15,46353.859,83734.262,96910.5480.034391.535,62619.5928,716
Kennebec29,64051.9121,60837.844,8378.4730.011,0101.778,03214.0757,098
Knox12,00957.396,27029.962,23410.6830.014091.965,73927.4320,925
Lincoln10,76355.406,81435.071,5928.1900.002601.343,94920.3319,429
Oxford12,95449.5010,51040.162,1418.1800.005642.162,4449.3426,169
Penobscot31,29047.3427,69241.895,8568.8690.011,2561.903,5985.4566,103
Piscataquis3,37944.263,57846.875347.0030.041401.83-199-2.617,634
Sagadahoc11,47358.716,28432.161,5077.7100.002791.435,18926.5519,543
Somerset9,63145.219,83146.151,4937.0160.033431.61-200-0.9421,304
Waldo10,50352.307,26536.171,9769.8430.023371.683,23816.1320,084
Washington6,31046.925,77042.901,0978.1640.032692.005404.0213,450
York51,38752.6632,84933.6611,55111.8400.001,7981.8418,53819.0097,585
Overseas1,47560.9024910.2869828.8200.0000.0077732.082,422
class=sortbottom Totals344,57553.34223,50234.5966,26810.26640.0111,6551.80121,07318.75646,064

Counties that flipped from Independent to Republican

By congressional district

King won both congressional districts, both of which elected Democrats.[47]

DistrictKingBrakeyRingelsteinRepresentative
57.73%30.39%11.88%
50.28%40.97%8.75%Jared Golden

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: United States Senate election in Maine, 2018 - Ballotpedia. 2017-12-23. en-US. April 8, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230408133507/https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine,_2018. live.
  2. News: Maine became the first state in the country Tuesday to pass ranked choice voting. 17 November 2016. Boston Globe. 10 November 2016. November 16, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161116075525/https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/11/10/maine-became-the-first-state-in-the-country-to-pass-ranked-choice-voting. live.
  3. News: Maine Voters Overrule Their Leaders. 24 June 2018. The Atlantic. 15 June 2018. June 22, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180622005052/https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/06/maine-lepage-ranked-choice-voting/562871/. live.
  4. Web site: Ranked-choice voting fans hope Maine's experiment pays off. Miami Herald. 21 June 2018. October 22, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180625021537/https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article213587154.html. June 25, 2018. dead.
  5. Web site: Maine Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin. 270toWin.com. March 31, 2023. March 31, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230331031424/https://www.270towin.com/states/Maine. live.
  6. News: Senate Control Could Hinge on Angus King of Maine. Jonathan. Weisman. The New York Times. May 6, 2012.
  7. Web site: Angus King. Ballotpedia. March 31, 2023. October 5, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201005223308/https://ballotpedia.org/Angus_King. live.
  8. Web site: Sen. Angus King to have surgery for prostate cancer. Bangor Daily News. Beth. Brogan. June 22, 2015. June 22, 2015. October 1, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151001053414/http://bangordailynews.com/2015/06/22/politics/sen-angus-king-to-have-surgery-for-prostate-cancer/. live.
  9. Web site: LePage says comment about Senate run a joke. WMTW-TV. January 13, 2015. June 22, 2015. June 23, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150623004554/http://www.wmtw.com/politics/lepage-considering-a-run-for-us-senate/30677598. live.
  10. Web site: LePage says he's considering Senate run against King. WMTW-TV. Kevin. Miller. January 12, 2015. June 22, 2015. June 23, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150623012330/http://www.pressherald.com/2015/01/12/will-lepage-run-for-the-u-s-senate-against-king-in-2018/. live.
  11. Web site: LePage tells Howie Carr he may challenge Angus King in 2018. Bangor Daily News. Scott. Thistle. August 25, 2015. August 25, 2015. January 31, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160131070643/http://bangordailynews.com/2015/08/25/news/state/lepage-tells-howie-carr-he-may-challenge-angus-king-in-2018/. live.
  12. Web site: LePage giving 'very serious thought' to challenging King for Senate seat. Portland Press Herald. Gillian. Graham. April 13, 2016. April 15, 2016. April 18, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160418021929/http://www.pressherald.com/2016/04/13/lepage-giving-very-serious-though-to-challenge-king-for-senate-seat/?. live.
  13. Web site: Gov. LePage says he'll take on Angus King. WGME-TV. May 11, 2016. May 11, 2016. May 12, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160512103051/http://wgme.com/news/local/gov-lepage-says-hell-take-on-angus-king. live.
  14. Web site: LePage won't oppose Angus King for U.S. Senate in 2018. Bangor Daily News. Cousins. Christopher. May 10, 2017. May 10, 2017. May 15, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170515094651/http://bangordailynews.com/2017/05/10/politics/lepage-wont-oppose-angus-king-for-u-s-senate-in-2018/. live.
  15. Web site: Maine Gov. Paul LePage says he might change his mind and run for Senate. Andrew . Kaczynski. CNN. July 20, 2017.
  16. News: Trump wants LePage to challenge King in U.S. Senate race in Maine. The Washington Post. Dawsey. Josh. December 6, 2017. December 7, 2017. December 7, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171207002840/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-wants-lepage-to-challenge-king-in-maine-senate-race/2017/12/06/796af484-daca-11e7-8e5f-ccc94e22b133_story.html. live.
  17. Web site: All Upcoming Deadlines - Maine Ethics Commission. www.maine.gov. March 17, 2018. March 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180317102941/http://www.maine.gov/ethics/deadlines-all.htm. dead.
  18. Web site: Search results - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. March 17, 2018. March 17, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180317111014/https://www.fec.gov/search/?type=candidates&type=committees&type=site&query=paul+lepage. live.
  19. Web site: Bar Harbor financial planner jumps into race to challenge King. Kennebec Journal. Collins. Steve. February 1, 2018. February 3, 2018. April 24, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180424151748/https://www.pressherald.com/2018/04/24/dunlap-again-reviews-signatures-on-candidate-petition-for-max-linn/. live.
  20. Web site: Disqualified in Maine, Max Linn now has campaign signs in New Hampshire. Portland Press Herald. Miller. Kevin. May 31, 2018. June 3, 2018. June 12, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180612135839/https://www.pressherald.com/2018/05/31/disqualified-from-maine-ballot-candidates-signs-popping-up-in-new-hampshire/. live.
  21. Web site: Federal judge rejects Max Linn's effort to run in Maine Republican primary. Portland Press Herald. Thistle. Scott. June 8, 2018 . June 8, 2018.
  22. Web site: GOP state senator Eric Brakey kicks off underdog 2018 bid to unseat Angus King. Bangor Daily News. Shepherd. Michael. April 3, 2017. April 25, 2017.
  23. Web site: More bogus petition signatures end Republican Max Linn's run for U.S. Senate. Portland Press Herald. Thistle. Scott. April 24, 2018. April 25, 2018. April 24, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180424151748/https://www.pressherald.com/2018/04/24/dunlap-again-reviews-signatures-on-candidate-petition-for-max-linn/. live.
  24. News: Holbrook says he looked at running for U.S. Senate but will stay in U.S. House race. Sun Journal. Collins. Steve. September 5, 2017. June 14, 2020. subscription. June 14, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200614181107/https://www.sunjournal.com/2017/09/05/holbrook-says-he-looked-at-running-for-u-s-senate-but-will-stay-in-u-s-house-race/. live.
  25. News: Paul LePage won't run for Senate in 2018 . The Boston Globe.
  26. Web site: Collins. Steve. Benjamin Pollard quits Democrats, plans independent bid for U.S. Senate. Portland Press Herald. March 2, 2018. 8 March 2018.
  27. Web site: Democratic socialism, with Kaniela Ing in the mix, surges in the age of Trump . Peoples . Steve . 2018-07-21 . Honolulu Star Advertiser . 2018-07-22 . November 27, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201127180702/https://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/07/21/breaking-news/democratic-socialism-with-kaniela-ing-in-the-mix-surges-in-the-age-of-trump/ . live .
  28. Web site: Educator Ringelstein declares candidacy for U.S. Senate seat. WGME. October 6, 2017. October 29, 2017. October 14, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171014065518/http://wgme.com/news/local/portland-teacher-declares-candidacy-for-us-senate-seat. live.
  29. Web site: Pollard quits Democrats, plans independent bid for U.S. Senate seat - Lewiston Sun Journal. March 2, 2018. March 3, 2018. March 2, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180302233311/http://www.sunjournal.com/pollard-quits-democrats-plans-independent-bid-for-u-s-senate-seat/. live.
  30. Web site: Diane Russell Considers 2018 US Senate Run. IVN News. Griffiths. Shawn M.. January 13, 2017. January 14, 2017. January 16, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170116012607/https://ivn.us/2017/01/13/diane-russell-considers-2018-us-senate-run/. dead.
  31. Web site: Former Portland state Rep. Diane Russell joins governor's race. August 10, 2017. August 10, 2017. August 10, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170810184205/http://www.pressherald.com/2017/08/10/former-portland-rep-diane-russell-joins-governors-race/. live.
  32. News: Brunswick resident seeks Libertarian Party nomination. The Times Record. August 8, 2017. August 15, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170815174653/http://www.timesrecord.com/news/2017-08-08/Front_Page/Brunswick_resident_seeks_Libertarian_Party_nominat.html. August 15, 2017. dead.
  33. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings. The Cook Political Report. March 23, 2018. October 7, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171007064924/http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings. live.
  34. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. October 11, 2017. October 14, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171014170343/http://insideelections.com/ratings/senate. live.
  35. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017. October 12, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171012072206/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-senate/. live.
  36. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. Fox News. July 10, 2018. July 4, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180704201036/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/midterms-2018.html. live.
  37. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018. June 14, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180614221216/https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races/senate. live.
  38. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018. July 9, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180709194218/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html. live.
  39. Web site: Emerson College . October 31, 2018 . July 22, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190722114017/https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-ct-me-nh-two-house-races-play-potential-gubernatorial-upset . live .
  40. Web site: Critical Insights (R-Brakey) . October 19, 2018 . October 20, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181020011618/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20181019_ME.pdf . live .
  41. Web site: Pan Atlantic Research . October 19, 2018 . October 19, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181019205244/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf . live .
  42. https://web.archive.org/web/20181012053944/https://ericbrakey.com/eric-brakey-campaign-surges-in-latest-poll/ Self-Made Insights (R-Brakey)
  43. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_8_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
  44. In the actual election, no second round of vote tabulating would be needed if a candidate won 50% of the vote in the first round.
  45. Web site: Colby College/Boston Globe . June 22, 2017 . April 15, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170415222147/http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25 . live .
  46. Web site: University of New Hampshire . June 26, 2016 . June 27, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160627144629/http://www.pressherald.com/2016/06/25/maine-voters-dissatisfied-with-presidential-options/ . live .
  47. Web site: Maine Certificate of Ascertainment 2016. LePage. Paul R.. 2020-01-11. October 19, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201019115852/https://www.archives.gov/files/electoral-college/2016/ascertainment-maine.pdf. live.

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