2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona explained

Election Name:2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Country:Arizona
Type:legislative
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Next Year:2020
Seats For Election:All 9 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Last Election1:4
Seats1:5
Seat Change1: 1
Popular Vote1:1,179,193
Percentage1:50.37%
Swing1: 5.65%
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Last Election2:5
Seats2:4
Seat Change2: 1
Popular Vote2:1,139,251
Percentage2:48.67%
Swing2: 3.82%
Map Size:230px

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the State of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The 2018 general elections saw the Democratic party gain the 2nd congressional district, thus flipping the state from a 5–4 Republican advantage to a 5–4 Democratic advantage, the first time since the 2012 election in which Democrats held more House seats in Arizona than the Republicans.

Overview

Statewide

PartyCandidatesVotesSeats
%+/–%
Democratic91,179,19350.375155.56
Republican91,139,25148.674144.44
Green222,3780.9600.0
Write-in31470.0100.0
Total232,341,270100.09100.0

By district

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[1]

scope=col rowspan=3Districtscope=col colspan=2Democraticscope=col colspan=2Republicanscope=col colspan=2 rowspan=2Othersscope=col colspan=2 rowspan=2Totalscope=col rowspan=3Result
scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"!scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"
scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"%
143,240 53.83% 122,784 46.14% 65 0.03% 266,089 100.0% Democratic hold
District 2 161,000 54.73% 133,083 45.24% 69 0.02% 294,152 100.0% Democratic gain
114,650 63.87% 64,868 36.13% 0 0.00% 179,518 100.0% Democratic hold
84,521 30.51% 188,842 68.16% 3,672 1.33% 277,035 100.0% Republican hold
127,027 40.58% 186,037 59.42% 0 0.00% 313,064 100.0% Republican hold
140,559 44.81% 173,140 55.19% 0 0.00% 313,699 100.0% Republican hold
113,044 85.61% 301 0.20% 19,007 14.39% 132,051 100.0% Democratic hold
135,569 44.53% 168,835 55.46% 13 0.01% 304,417 100.0% Republican hold
159,583 61.09% 101,662 38.91% 0 0.00% 261,245 100.0% Democratic hold
Total 1,179,193 50.37% 1,139,251 48.66% 22,826 0.97% 2,341,270 100.0%

District 1

Election Name:2018 Arizona's 1st congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 1
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 1
Next Year:2020
Image1:File:Tom O'Halleran official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Tom O'Halleran
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:143,240
Percentage1:53.8%
Nominee2:Wendy Rogers
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:122,784
Percentage2:46.1%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Tom O'Halleran
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Tom O'Halleran
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 1st congressional district. The 1st district is home to the Grand Canyon and stretches along the eastern and northeastern portions of the state and includes Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and Marana. This district has a significant Native-American population, making up 25% of the population in the district. This district is home to a number of Indian reservations, including the Gila River Indian Community, Hopi Reservation, and the Navajo Nation. Incumbent Democrat Tom O'Halleran, who had represented the district since 2017, ran for re-election.[2] He was elected with 51% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+2, making it one of the most competitive in the state with a PVI of R+2.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn

Primary results

Republican primary

The district was one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.[5]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Wendy
Rogers		Tiffany
Shedd		Steve
Smith		OtherUndecided
Grassroots Partners (R-Smith)[10] July 15–16, 2018393± 4.6%23%15% align=center27%––
Data Orbital (R-Defending Rural Arizona PAC)[11] June 28–30, 2018450± 4.59% align=center22%15%10%3% align=center50%

Primary results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
O'Halleran (D)		Wendy
Rogers (R)		OtherUndecided
0ptimus/DDHQ[12] October 31 – November 1, 2018756± 3.6% align=center48%45%1%6%
American Viewpoint (R)[13] October 16–18, 2018400± 4.9%46%46%–5%
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)[14] October 9–10, 2018943± 3.0%38% align=center44%–18%
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)[15] September 27–28, 2018738± 4.0%36% align=center39%–24%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[16] November 5, 2018
align=left Inside Elections[17] November 5, 2018
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] November 5, 2018
RCP[19] November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[20] November 5, 2018
538[21] November 7, 2018
CNN[22] [23] October 31, 2018
Fox News[24] September 21, 2018
Politico[25] November 2, 2018

Results

District 2

Election Name:2018 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 2
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 2
Next Year:2020
Image1:File:Ann Kirkpatrick, official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ann Kirkpatrick
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:161,000
Percentage1:54.7%
Nominee2:Lea Márquez Peterson
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:133,083
Percentage2:45.2%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Martha McSally
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Ann Kirkpatrick
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 2nd congressional district. The 2nd district is based in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and parts of suburban Tucson. Incumbent Republican Martha McSally, who had represented the district since 2015, did not run for re-election, instead running for the U.S. Senate. She was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+1.[26]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Brandon Martin, Army instructor[28] [29]
  • Danny Morales, former Douglas city councilman[30]
  • Casey Welch

Withdrew

  • Martha McSally, incumbent (running for the U.S. Senate)
  • Marilyn Wiles

Declined

Primary results

Democratic primary

This district was one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.[33]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined
  • Brian Bickel, candidate for Pima County Supervisor in 2016
  • Randall Friese, state representative[42] [43]
  • Lou Jordan, retired U.S. Army colonel[44]
  • Jeff Latas, retired air force fighter pilot and candidate for AZ-08 in 2006[45]
  • Joshua Polacheck, foreign service officer
  • Victoria Steele, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Randy
Friese		Matt
Heinz		Ann
Kirkpatrick		Billy
Kovacs		Mary
Matiella		Bruce
Wheeler		OtherUndecided
FM3 Research (D-Heinz)[46] August 1–2, 2018402± 4.9%– align=center31%26%–––13%29%
FM3 Research (D-Heinz)[47] April 29 – May 3, 2018400± 4.9%– align=center27%23%4%6%4%–36%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)[48] May 5–7, 2017392± 5.0%6% align=center40%30%––––24%

Primary results

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lea
Marquez-Peterson (R)		Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)		Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College[49] September 26 – October 1, 2018502± 4.5%39% align=center50%11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)[50] February 8–10, 2018841± 3.4%34% align=center43%23%

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Notes and References

  1. Web site: Johnson. Cheryl L.. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. April 27, 2019. February 28, 2019.
  2. News: 2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Unofficial Results . November 8, 2016 . Arizona Secretary of State . November 15, 2016.
  3. Web site: Arizona Election Information.
  4. Web site: CD1, LD8 candidates withdraw from races after court challenges. 13 June 2018 .
  5. Web site: NRCC Announces Initial Offensive Targets For The 2018 Cycle . NRCC . February 8, 2017 . April 15, 2018.
  6. News: Republican Wendy Rogers announces run for Rep. Tom O'Halleran's seat . January 23, 2018 . KTAR . April 15, 2018.
  7. News: Shedd announces GOP bid for Congress. Heather Smathers . Arizona City Independent . April 15, 2018.
  8. Web site: Tiffany Shedd . Ballotpedia . April 15, 2018.
  9. News: GOP lawmaker running for Congress in northern Arizona district . . Resnik . Brahm . May 15, 2017 . May 15, 2017 . June 16, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170616200159/http://www.12news.com/news/politics/gop-state-senator-running-for-congress-in-northern-arizona-district/439841907 . dead .
  10. https://twitter.com/senstevesmith/status/1019804390612332544 Grassroots Partners (R-Smith)
  11. https://web.archive.org/web/20180719233848/https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/2018/7/11/az01-republican-primary Data Orbital (R-Defending Rural Arizona PAC)
  12. https://decisiondeskhq.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/November-2018-AZ01-and-OH07-Poll-Release.pdf Optimus/DDHQ
  13. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20181020_AZ1.pdf American Viewpoint (R)
  14. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WsjHg4xpadSGP0neqIh3HGKDhj8qKu_q/view Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)
  15. https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1046820860819099648 Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)
  16. Web site: 2018 House Race Ratings . Cook Political Report . October 30, 2018.
  17. Web site: 2018 House Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 5, 2018.
  18. Web site: 2018 House . . November 5, 2018.
  19. News: Battle for the House 2018 . RCP . November 5, 2018.
  20. Web site: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings . . November 5, 2018 .
  21. Web site: Silver . Nate . 2018 House Forecast . . November 6, 2018 . August 16, 2018.
  22. Web site: CNN Key Races: Path to House majority comes into focus as a dozen races move toward Democrats. CNN. 29 July 2018. en-US. 2018-07-30.
  23. Web site: CNN's 2018 Race Ratings . cnn.com . Turner Broadcasting System . 30 July 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181031235918/https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races . 31 October 2018.
  24. News: Fox News Midterms 2018 America's Election HQ. Fox News. 2018-08-18. en-US.
  25. News: Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election. POLITICO. 2018-09-07.
  26. News: Bennett . John T. . GOP's McSally Wins Re-Election in Arizona's 2nd District . Roll Call . November 8, 2016 . November 10, 2016.
  27. News: Tucson Republican jumps into race for Martha McSally's seat . Tim Steller . Arizona Daily Star . April 15, 2018.
  28. Web site: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 . Ballotpedia . 29 August 2018.
  29. Web site: Meet Your Candidates: GOP Congressional Hopeful Brandon Martin Hopes to End Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid.
  30. News: Douglas city councilman resigns to run for Congress . Herald Review . Whetten . Bruce . January 25, 2018.
  31. News: US Rep. Martha McSally tells House colleagues she's running for Senate. Joe . Ferguson. Arizona Daily Star. April 15, 2018.
  32. News: Steller's Friday Notebook: Voters stage mini tax revolt across Tucson . Tim . Steller . Arizona Daily Star . April 15, 2018.
  33. Web site: Charging Forward, DCCC Announces Battlefield Expansion. 11 March 2023.
  34. News: Kirkpatrick joins the list of Democrats running for McSally's congressional seat . . Hansen . Ronald J. . July 20, 2017 . July 20, 2017.
  35. News: McSally's 2016 Challenger Announces House Run . . Bowman . Bridget . June 13, 2017 . June 14, 2017.
  36. News: Tucson Democrat Billy Kovacs announces run for seat held by McSally. . Ferguson . Joe . April 17, 2017 . April 18, 2017.
  37. News: Mary Matiella, retired assistant secretary of Army, enters CD2 race . . Ferguson . Joe . June 20, 2017 . June 20, 2017.
  38. News: Democrat Bruce Wheeler jumps into Congressional District 2 race . . Ferguson . Joe . June 29, 2017 . June 30, 2017.
  39. News: Tim Steller's Notebook: Dems sense opportunity against Martha McSally . . Steller . Tim . June 2, 2017 . June 5, 2017.
  40. News: Local business owner Charlie Verdin steps into CD2 race . . Ferguson . Joe . July 24, 2017 . July 24, 2017.
  41. News: Verdin out: And then there were ... still a number of CD2 candidates . Tucson Sentinel . Smith . Dylan . August 8, 2017 . August 10, 2017.
  42. News: Tim Steller's Friday Notebook: Time for Arizona senators to stand up to Trump . . Steller . Tim . May 11, 2017 . May 14, 2017.
  43. News: Friese ices Senate run after Sinema announcement. Tucson Sentinel . Smith . Dylan . September 29, 2017 . September 29, 2017.
  44. News: Tim Steller's Notebook: O'Reilly's priority on TV show was always O'Reilly . . Steller . Tim . April 21, 2017 . May 14, 2017.
  45. News: Money and Challengers, Oh My . . Nintzel . Jim . April 20, 2017 . May 14, 2017.
  46. https://www.scribd.com/document/385825572/AZ-02-FM3-D-for-Matt-Heinz-August-2018 FM3 Research (D-Heinz)
  47. https://www.scribd.com/document/379204402/AZ-02-FM3-for-Matt-Heinz-May-2018 FM3 Research (D-Heinz)
  48. https://www.scribd.com/document/352026564/AZ-02-PPP-for-Matt-Heinz-June-2017 Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)
  49. https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AZ02P1_final5302.pdf NYT Upshot/Siena College
  50. https://www.scribd.com/document/371462388/AZ-02-PPP-D-for-Matt-Heinz-Feb-2018# Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)
  51. https://www.scribd.com/document/348253364/AZ-02-PPP-for-Matt-Heinz-May-2017 Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)
  52. https://www.scribd.com/document/361433710/House-PPP-polls-for-Patriot-Majority-2-Oct-2017 Public Policy Polling (D)
  53. Web site: 12-12-17 Briefs. mcrcbriefs. April 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617093424/http://archives.mcrcbriefs.org/2017/12/12-12-17-briefs.html. June 17, 2018. dead.
  54. Web site: Billabatecola4cd3 – Write in candidate Republican Congress District 3 AZ . 2016-11-07 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161110115257/https://www.billabatecola4cd3.org/ . 2016-11-10 . dead .
  55. Web site: Paul Gosar.
  56. News: Rep. Paul Gosar's siblings in new ad: Don't vote for our brother. Eric . Bradner. CNN. 2018-09-22.
  57. News: Siblings savage congressman in attack ad. 2018-09-23. BBC News. 2018-09-23. en-GB.
  58. http://createsend.com/t/i-0CB678E1B0FEDDB32540EF23F30FEDED OH Predictive Insights
  59. Web site: United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2018.
  60. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-az06-3.html NYT Upshot/Siena College
  61. News: Miranda announces run for Congress . . Giles . Ben . January 2, 2018.
  62. News: Bade . Rachael . Rachael Bade . Sherman . Jake . December 8, 2017 . Female aides said Franks suggested intercourse to impregnate them . . Washington, D.C. . December 8, 2017 .
  63. News: Trent Franks stepping down from Congress amid complaints from 2 former female staffers . The Arizona Republic . December 7, 2017 . Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne . December 7, 2017.
  64. News: UPDATED: Here's Everyone Who's Running To Replace Trent Franks . December 12, 2017 . Phoenix New Times . December 13, 2017.
  65. Web site: Baker, Scott Allen 1972 - Candidate overview . FEC . April 15, 2018.
  66. News: Arizona names who could enter the race for Franks' US House seat . KTAR . December 7, 2017 . December 7, 2017.
  67. Web site: Sawdy, Steven - Candidate overview . FEC . April 15, 2018.
  68. News: Glendale doctor enters race for Arizona's 8th Congressional District . July 19, 2017 . KTAR . April 15, 2018.
  69. News: Albanese . Giovanni . April 25, 2018 . Indian American Physician Hiral Tipirneni Comes Up Short in Arizona's 8th Congressional District Special Election Race . India-West . May 26, 2018 . May 27, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180527023757/http://www.indiawest.com/news/global_indian/indian-american-physician-hiral-tipirneni-comes-up-short-in-arizona/article_efef237a-48af-11e8-8839-ef2fcaf4abb3.html . dead .
  70. Web site: Primary candidates drop off ballot following petition challenges. 28 June 2018 . Glendale Star.
  71. Web site: Schuster, Robert Kyle - Candidate overview . FEC . April 15, 2018.
  72. Web site: Campaign finance data . FEC . April 15, 2018.
  73. Web site: Ronald J. Hansen . Medical group yanks endorsement of Rep. Debbie Lesko over 'phony' doctor TV ads . azcentral.com . Arizona Republic . 3 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181020050305/https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/18/medical-group-yanks-endorsement-debbie-lesko-over-phony-doctor-ads/1692157002/ . 20 October 2018 . 18 October 2018.
  74. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fQw6QPjtuLYZu4CkHHLvVU8FPadi3FW2/view Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni)
  75. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-550f-d0d5-af75-f5fff0e60001 Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni)
  76. Web site: Wasserman . David . Ten Rating Changes as Democrats' Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens . . 22 June 2023 . 23 October 2018.
  77. News: Republican Debbie Lesko Wins Arizona Special Election . Bowman . Bridget . April 25, 2018 . Roll Call . 2018-05-27.
  78. News: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton announces run for Congress . October 5, 2017 . KTAR . April 15, 2018.
  79. Web site: Campaign finance data . FEC . April 15, 2018.
  80. News: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema says she will seek re-election to the U.S. House, won't run against Sen. Jeff Flake . The Arizona Republic . April 15, 2018.
  81. Web site: Log In . NationalJournal . 11 March 2023 . 11 March 2023. (subscription required)
  82. Web site: Campaign finance data . FEC . April 15, 2018.
  83. Web site: Statement of candicacy. 11 March 2023.
  84. News: Díaz: How Kyrsten Sinema's Senate bid unravels Phoenix City Hall . The Arizona Republic . April 15, 2018.

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