| Election Name: | 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana |
| Country: | Indiana |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2012 United States Senate election in Indiana |
| Previous Year: | 2012 |
| Next Election: | 2024 United States Senate election in Indiana |
| Next Year: | 2024 |
| Turnout: | 50.42% |
| Image1: | File:Mike Braun, Official Portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Mike Braun |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,158,000 |
| Percentage1: | 50.73% |
| Nominee2: | Joe Donnelly |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,023,553 |
| Percentage2: | 44.84% |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Joe Donnelly |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Mike Braun |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly lost re-election to a second term to Republican Mike Braun by a 6% margin. This was the second consecutive election for this seat where the incumbent was defeated and/or the seat flipped parties.
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3]
In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4] [5]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Luke Messer | Todd Rokita | Mike Braun | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic National (R)[33] | May 5–6, 2018 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 29% | 28% | align=center | 44% | – | – | |
| Gravis Marketing[34] | April 6–11, 2018 | 280 | ± 5.9% | 13% | 16% | align=center | 26% | – | align=center | 45% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita)[35] | January 6–9, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 9% | align=center | 24% | 9% | – | align=center | 58% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita)[36] | July 16–18, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 20% | align=center | 28% | – | – | align=center | 51% |
| 14% | align=center | 21% | 11% | – | align=center | 55% | ||||
| OnMedia (R-Messer)[37] | July 10–12, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.8% | 23% | 23% | 2% | 7% | align=center | 45% |
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | October 26, 2018 | ||
| Inside Elections[40] | November 1, 2018 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| CNN[42] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| RealClearPolitics[43] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Daily Kos[44] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Fox News[45] | November 5, 2018 |
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand | |
| Joe Donnelly (D) | $16,100,528 | $13,872,981 | $2,321,981 | |
| Mike Braun (R) | $16,964,706 | $15,576,842 | $1,387,861 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[46] | ||||
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Donnelly (D) | Mike Braun (R) | Lucy Brenton (L) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[47] | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | align=center | 43% | – | – | – | |
| HarrisX[48] | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 43% | 41% | – | – | – | |
| HarrisX[49] | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 43% | 42% | – | – | – | |
| HarrisX[50] | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 44% | 42% | – | – | – | |
| HarrisX[51] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | – | – | – | ||
| HarrisX[52] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | align=center | 43% | – | – | – | |
| Fox News[53] | October 27–30, 2018 | 722 LV | ± 3.5% | align=center | 45% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 9% | |
| 852 RV | ± 3.0% | align=center | 42% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 11% | |||
| HarrisX[54] | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | – | – | ||
| NBC News/Marist[55] | October 24–28, 2018 | 496 LV | ± 5.5% | align=center | 45% | 42% | 7% | <1% | 5% | |
| align=center | 48% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% | |||||
| 800 RV | ± 4.2% | align=center | 43% | 40% | 9% | <1% | 7% | |||
| align=center | 47% | 45% | – | 2% | 7% | |||||
| Cygnal (R)[56] | October 26–27, 2018 | 505 | ± 4.4% | 46% | align=center | 49% | – | 3% | 2% | |
| YouGov[57] | October 23–26, 2018 | 975 | ± 3.7% | 43% | align=center | 46% | 3% | 0% | 8% | |
| Mason Strategies (R)[58] | October 15–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 43% | align=center | 47% | 3% | – | 7% | |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun)[59] | October 14–17, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | align=center | 44% | 7% | – | 5% | |
| SurveyUSA[60] | October 12–16, 2018 | 816 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 41% | 40% | 8% | – | 11% | |
| Gravis Marketing[61] | October 12–16, 2018 | 377 | ± 5.1% | align=center | 44% | 40% | 7% | – | 10% | |
| Vox Populi Polling[62] | October 13–15, 2018 | 783 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 55% | 45% | – | – | – | |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 7–10, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | align=center | 44% | 7% | – | 7% | |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 800 | – | 39% | align=center | 43% | 7% | – | 5% | |
| Fox News[63] | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 695 LV | ± 3.5% | align=center | 43% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 9% | |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | align=center | 41% | 40% | 6% | 1% | 10% | |||
| Ipsos[64] | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,181 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 46% | 43% | – | 3% | 8% | |
| Fox News[65] | September 8–11, 2018 | 677 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | align=center | 45% | 3% | 1% | 8% | |
| 804 RV | ± 3.5% | align=center | 42% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 10% | |||
| NBC News/Marist[66] | August 26–29, 2018 | 576 LV | ± 5.0% | align=center | 44% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 6% | |
| align=center | 49% | 43% | – | 2% | 7% | |||||
| 816 RV | ± 4.2% | align=center | 43% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 8% | |||
| align=center | 48% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% | |||||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[67] | July 31 – August 7, 2018 | 1,420 | ± 2.6% | align=center | 51% | 39% | – | – | 11% | |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[68] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 952 | ± 5.0% | 47% | align=center | 49% | – | – | 4% | |
| Gravis Marketing[69] | May 10–15, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | align=center | 47% | – | – | 7% |
with Todd Rokita
with Luke Messer
with generic Republican
On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[73] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the university centers (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and the suburbs of Chicago in Northwest Indiana.[74]
Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts, with Donnelly winning the other 3, including one held by a Republican.
| District | Braun | Donnelly | Elected Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.9% | 60.6% | Pete Visclosky | ||||
| 51.0% | 45.5% | Jackie Walorski | ||||
| 59.6% | 36.7% | Jim Banks | ||||
| 57.9% | 37.4% | Jim Baird | ||||
| 47.9% | 48.4% | Susan Brooks | ||||
| 60.8% | 34.3% | Greg Pence | ||||
| 31.8% | 64.5% | André Carson | ||||
| 57.3% | 38.4% | Larry Bucshon | ||||
| 54.3% | 41.5% | Trey Hollingsworth |
| Braun | No Answer | % of Voters | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | |||||
| Men | 40 | 57 | 3 | 49 | |
| Women | 49 | 46 | 5 | 51 | |
| Age | |||||
| 18–29 years old | 48 | 45 | 7 | 13 | |
| 30–44 years old | 49 | 43 | 8 | 20 | |
| 45–64 years old | 44 | 54 | 3 | 39 | |
| 65 and older | 41 | 57 | 1 | 28 | |
| Race | |||||
| White | 40 | 56 | 4 | 86 | |
| Black | 88 | 11 | 1 | 8 | |
| Latino | 71 | 22 | 6 | 3 | |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 | |
| Race by gender | |||||
| White men | 35 | 62 | 3 | 42 | |
| White women | 44 | 51 | 5 | 44 | |
| Black men | 82 | 15 | 2 | 4 | |
| Black women | 95 | 5 | 0 | 4 | |
| Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | |
| Latina women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 | |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 | |
| Education | |||||
| High school or less | 40 | 56 | 4 | 23 | |
| Some college education | 40 | 54 | 6 | 26 | |
| Associate degree | 41 | 55 | 4 | 13 | |
| Bachelor's degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 22 | |
| Advanced degree | 61 | 36 | 2 | 16 | |
| Education and race | |||||
| White college graduates | 49 | 48 | 3 | 34 | |
| White no college degree | 33 | 62 | 5 | 53 | |
| Non-white college graduates | 80 | 19 | 2 | 4 | |
| Non-white no college degree | 76 | 20 | 4 | 10 | |
| Whites by education and gender | |||||
| White women with college degrees | 57 | 39 | 4 | 17 | |
| White women without college degrees | 36 | 59 | 6 | 27 | |
| White men with college degrees | 41 | 57 | 2 | 17 | |
| White men without college degrees | 31 | 65 | 4 | 26 | |
| Non-whites | 77 | 20 | 3 | 14 | |
| Income | |||||
| Under $30,000 | 49 | 44 | 8 | 15 | |
| $30,000–49,999 | 46 | 49 | 4 | 23 | |
| $50,000–99,999 | 44 | 55 | 2 | 35 | |
| $100,000–199,999 | 44 | 52 | 4 | 22 | |
| Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 | |
| Party ID | |||||
| Democrats | 92 | 6 | 2 | 29 | |
| Republicans | 8 | 90 | 2 | 39 | |
| Independents | 47 | 44 | 9 | 31 | |
| Party by gender | |||||
| Democratic men | 92 | 6 | 2 | 12 | |
| Democratic women | 93 | 5 | 2 | 18 | |
| Republican men | 8 | 91 | 1 | 19 | |
| Republican women | 8 | 90 | 2 | 20 | |
| Independent men | 42 | 52 | 7 | 18 | |
| Independent women | 55 | 33 | 12 | 13 | |
| Ideology | |||||
| Liberals | 86 | 8 | 6 | 20 | |
| Moderates | 59 | 37 | 5 | 40 | |
| Conservatives | 10 | 88 | 2 | 40 | |
| Marital status | |||||
| Married | 43 | 54 | 3 | 61 | |
| Unmarried | 51 | 46 | 3 | 39 | |
| Gender by marital status | |||||
| Married men | 38 | 60 | 2 | 31 | |
| Married women | 48 | 49 | 3 | 30 | |
| Unmarried men | 42 | 53 | 5 | 19 | |
| Unmarried women | 61 | 39 | 1 | 20 | |
| First-time midterm election voter | |||||
| Yes | 41 | 53 | 6 | 15 | |
| No | 46 | 51 | 3 | 85 | |
| Most important issue facing the country | |||||
| Health care | 70 | 26 | 4 | 41 | |
| Immigration | 10 | 85 | 5 | 27 | |
| Economy | 31 | 66 | 3 | 21 | |
| Gun policy | 66 | 31 | 3 | 8 | |
| Area type | |||||
| Urban | 63 | 33 | 4 | 31 | |
| Suburban | 44 | 53 | 3 | 44 | |
| Rural | 37 | 58 | 5 | 25 | |
| Source: CNN[75] | |||||
Official campaign websites