2018 United States Senate election in Utah explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Utah
Country:Utah
Flag Year:2011
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Utah
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Utah
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:74.15%
Image1:File:Mitt Romney official US Senate portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Mitt Romney
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:665,215
Percentage1:62.59%
Nominee2:Jenny Wilson
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:328,541
Percentage2:30.91%
Map Size:220px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Orrin Hatch
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Mitt Romney
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries took place on June 26.[1]

Incumbent Republican senator Orrin Hatch announced in January 2018 that he would retire and not seek reelection to an eighth term, making this the first open seat U.S. Senate election in Utah since 1992 and the first in this seat since 1905. The general election was won by Mitt Romney, who had been the Republican nominee for president in 2012 and previously was the 70th Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. Romney became only the third person in American history to be elected governor and U.S. senator in different states, and the first former major party presidential nominee to run for a new office since Walter Mondale in 2002.[2]

Background

Process

Utah's 2018 U.S. Senate candidates had dual routes toward placement on the primary election ballot: (1) eligibility via win or second-place showings at a convention of delegates selected from party local caucuses; and/or (2) eligibility via obtaining sufficient petition signatures.

Taking the traditional route, the top two candidates for the U.S. Senate at any of the party state conventions (to be held this year the latter part of April) will be placed on the June 26 primary election ballot. Also, any candidate who collects 28,000 ballot-access petition signatures will be placed on the primary ballot.

If no competitor will have achieved the above-mentioned alternate access to the primary ballot through collected signatures and a convention winner had achieved sixty-percent of delegate votes, this candidate straightaway receives his or her party's nomination solely via the older-style caucuses-convention system. Otherwise, a candidate will be nominated through receiving a plurality of votes in the primary election and thereby advance to the November general election.

Incumbent Orrin Hatch did not seek reelection.[3]

Hatch to retire

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch was reelected to a seventh term in 2012. During his 2012 reelection campaign, Hatch had pledged that if he were elected that it would be his last term.[4] Hatch won his first election in 1976 in part by criticizing the incumbent's 18-year tenure. Hatch initially announced a re-election campaign on March 9, 2017,[5] [6] [7] [8] though he also said at that time that he might withdraw from the race if Mitt Romney decided to run.[9] An August 19–21, 2016, poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found only 19% of voters wanted Hatch to run in 2018, while 71% wanted him to retire.[10] On October 27, 2017, Hatch reportedly told friends privately that he was going to retire in 2019[11] and on January 2, 2018, made a public announcement of his plans to retire at the end of his current term in January 2019.[3]

Republican primary

Convention

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Eliminated at Convention

Declined

Results

State Republican Convention results, 2018
CandidateFirst ballotPct.Second ballotPct.
1,35440.69%1,64250.88%
1,53946.24%1,58549.12%
40.12%
290.87%
70.21%
00%
1003.01%
20.06%
1634.90%
00%
1223.67%
Total

Primary

Debates

Host
network! rowspan="2"
DateLink(s)Participants
Mitt
Romney		Mike
Kennedy
KBYU-TVMay 29, 2018[24] InvitedInvited

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Kennedy		Mitt
Romney		Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[25] June 11–18, 2018356± 5.2%23% align=center65%12%
Dan Jones & Associates[26] May 15–25, 2018295± 5.7%24% align=center67%9%

with Orrin Hatch

Endorsements

Debates

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Eliminated at Convention

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Constitution Party

Candidates

Declared

Independent American Party

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[40] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[41] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] November 5, 2018
Fox News[43] July 9, 2018
CNN[44] July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[45] November 5, 2018
^Highest rating given

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mitt
Romney (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Utah[46] October 3–9, 2018607± 4.0% align=center59%23%8%10%
Dan Jones & Associates[47] August 22–31, 2018809± 3.4% align=center55%29%8%[48] 7%
Lighthouse Research[49] August 11–27, 20182,400– align=center59%19%9%[50] 14%
University of Utah[51] June 11–18, 2018654± 3.9% align=center58%20%–21%
Dan Jones & Associates[52] January 15–18, 2018803± 3.5% align=center64%19%–12%
Dan Jones & Associates[53] November 16–21, 2017600± 4.0% align=center72%21%–7%
Dan Jones & Associates[54] August 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0% align=center64%26%–10%

Notes

with Mike Kennedy

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Orrin
Hatch (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		Undecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesNovember 16–21, 2017600± 4.0% align=center50%35%15%
Dan Jones & AssociatesAugust 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0%34% align=center45%21%

with Chris Stewart

with Matt Holland

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Romney won all 4 congressional districts.[57]

DistrictRomneyWilsonRepresentative
67%25%Rob Bishop
57%36%Chris Stewart
68%26%John Curtis
59%36%Mia Love
Ben McAdams

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Mitt Romney claims GOP nomination in Utah's U.S. Senate race. Benjamin. Wood. The Salt Lake Tribune. June 26, 2018. June 26, 2018.
  2. Web site: 2012-12-26. 3 decades of presidential losers: Where are they now?. 2020-09-27. theweek.com. en.
  3. News: Orrin Hatch to Retire from Senate, Opening Path for Mitt Romney . Jonathan . Martin . January 2, 2018 . The New York Times . January 2, 2018.
  4. News: Hatch will retire in 2018 if he wins reelection. The Hill. Lederman. Josh. March 14, 2012. October 20, 2016.
  5. News: Sen. Orrin Hatch leaves door ajar for run in 2018. Deseret News. Romboy. Dennis. November 6, 2014. October 20, 2016.
  6. News: When Hatch said he wouldn't run again, he was just kidding. The Salt Lake Tribune. Rolly. Paul. September 23, 2016. October 20, 2016.
  7. News: Hatch may reverse himself and run in 2018. Politico. Everett. Burgess. Palmer. Anna. October 19, 2016. October 20, 2016.
  8. News: First on CNN: After lobbying from Trump, Orrin Hatch plans to run again. CNN. Raju. Manu. March 9, 2017. March 11, 2017.
  9. Web site: Utah Senator says he may forgo '18 run if Mitt Romney runs for his seat. Prignano, Christina. The Boston Globe. March 31, 2017. April 2, 2017.
  10. News: Utah Ready for Hatch to Move On; More Progressive Than You Might Think. Public Policy Polling. Jensen. Tom. August 24, 2016. October 20, 2016.
  11. News: A Hatch retirement — and a Romney Senate run — could be inching closer to reality . The Boston Globe . Annie . Linskey . October 27, 2017 . January 2, 2018.
  12. Web site: Mitt Romney is officially running for U.S. Senate. USA Today.
  13. News: Mitt Romney wins against Mike Kennedy, Rep. Curtis defeats Herrod for second time. KUTV.com. McKenzie Stauffer. Heidi Hatch. June 26, 2018. July 15, 2018.
  14. News: Candidates file for congressional, Utah legislative races. Deseret News. Cathcart. Preston. March 14, 2018. March 15, 2018.
  15. News: Op-ed: It's time to invite Sen. Orrin Hatch to come home. 2017-08-07. DeseretNews.com. 2017-08-22. en.
  16. News: Tooelean wants to capture U.S. Senate seat. 2018-02-11. en.
  17. Web site: St. George attorney announces run for GOP US Senate nomination. January 6, 2018. StGeorgeUtah.com. January 10, 2018.
  18. News: Rob Bishop Discounts Prospect of Senate Run. Roll Call. Bowman. Bridget. April 28, 2017. April 30, 2017.
  19. News: Chaffetz will leave behind Oversight panel he used to investigate Obama White House. Washington Post. Viebeck. Elise. April 19, 2017. April 19, 2017.
  20. Web site: Prominent conservative passes on Utah Senate bid. Brett. Samuels. 20 November 2017. The Hill.
  21. News: What is Evan McMullin's endgame?. The Washington Post. Rogin. Josh. November 8, 2016. November 11, 2016.
  22. Web site: Mia Love on Twitter.
  23. News: Sen. Orrin Hatch considers re-election run, Evan McMullin won't rule out his own bid. The Salt Lake Tribune. Burr. Thomas. Canham. Matt. November 16, 2016. December 4, 2016.
  24. Web site: - YouTube . .
  25. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/06/20/poll-romney-up-42-points-over-kennedy-ahead-of-tuesdays-primary/ Dan Jones & Associates
  26. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/16784-poll-romney-leads-kennedy-by-big-margin-in-u-s-senate-primary-race Dan Jones & Associates
  27. http://www.sltrib.com/news/4863386-155/utahns-approve-of-sen-hatchs-performance Dan Jones & Associates
  28. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v_c6ZCPa7I YouTube
  29. News: SL County Councilwoman Wilson launches 2018 Senate bid, hoping to take on Orrin Hatch. The Salt Lake Tribune. Burr. Thomas. July 17, 2017. July 17, 2017.
  30. Web site: Mitchell Vice joins 2 other Democrats vying for Hatch's Senate seat in 2018. Witham. Joseph. May 22, 2017. St. George News. August 18, 2017.
  31. News: Navajo candidate announces bid as Democrat for Hatch's seat. Tribune. Courtney Tanner The Salt Lake. The Salt Lake Tribune. 2017-05-17. en.
  32. Web site: Navajo Candidate Drops Out of Race Against Hatch. Roll Call. June 21, 2017. June 21, 2017. Andrew. Breiner.
  33. News: Another Democrat looking to knock off Hatch in 2018. Utah Policy. Schott. Bryan. April 12, 2017. April 12, 2017.
  34. Web site: Thank You. Danny Drew For U.S. Senate. October 2, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171004120336/http://drewforutah.com/. October 4, 2017. dead.
  35. News: Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams running for Congress KSL.com. 2017-10-19. en.
  36. Web site: Bishop Holds Vast Lead Over Clemens in Utah's 1st Congressional District. Bob. Bernick. 18 August 2016. Utah Policy.
  37. Web site: 2018 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections. elections.utah.gov.
  38. Web site: REED C..
  39. https://www.c-span.org/video/?452556-1/utah-senate-debate C-SPAN
  40. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  41. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  42. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017.
  43. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. Fox News. July 10, 2018.
  44. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
  45. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
  46. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-mitt-romney-winning/ University of Utah
  47. https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/17680-republican-mitt-romney-has-a-26-point-lead-over-democrat-jenny-wilson-in-u-s-senate-race Dan Jones & Associates
  48. Tim Aalders (C) with 4%, Reed McCandless (IA) and Craig Bowden (L) with 2%
  49. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/09/05/united-utah-party/ Lighthouse Research
  50. Craig Bowden (L) and Reed McCandless (IA) with 3%, Tim Aalders (C) with 2%, other with 1%
  51. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/06/20/poll-romney-up-42-points-over-kennedy-ahead-of-tuesdays-primary/ University of Utah
  52. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/01/23/mitt-romney-would-romp-to-senate-victory-over-jenny-wilson-if-election-was-held-today/ Dan Jones & Associates
  53. https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900004878/poll-mitt-romney-would-win-us-senate-seat-by-big-margin-orrin-hatch-would-beat-jenny-wilson-too.html Dan Jones & Associates
  54. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/14293-poll-romney-wins-matchup-and-likely-will-run-if-hatch-doesn-t Dan Jones & Associates
  55. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/15878-poll-gives-republican-mitt-romney-a-big-lead-in-utah-s-u-s-senate-race Dan Jones & Associates
  56. https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865678241/Poll-Evan-McMullin-beats-Sen-Orrin-Hatch-in-head-to-head-matchup.html JMC Analytics
  57. Web site: DRA 2020 . 2024-08-19 . Daves Redistricting.

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