2018 Okinawa gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2018 Okinawa gubernatorial election
Country:	Okinawa
Ongoing:	no
Type:	presidential
Turnout:	63.24% 0.89%^[1]
Previous Election:	Okinawa gubernatorial election, 2014
Previous Year:	2014
Election Date:	30 September 2018
Next Election:	2022 Okinawa gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2022
Time Zone:	+9
Nominee1:	Denny Tamaki
Party1:	Independent (politician)
Alliance1:	All Okinawa
Popular Vote1:	396,632
Percentage1:	55.1%
Nominee2:	Atsushi Sakima
Party2:	Independent (politician)
Popular Vote2:	316,458
Percentage2:	43.9%
Governor
Before Election:	Takeshi Onaga
Before Party:	Independent (politician)
After Election:	Denny Tamaki
After Party:	Independent (politician)

The 2018 Okinawa gubernatorial election was held on 30 September 2018 to elect the next governor of Okinawa.^[2] As there are no term limits in Japan, incumbent Governor Takeshi Onaga was eligible for re-election before his death in August 2018.^[3] The election was originally scheduled to be held on 9 December 2018, but this was brought forward after Onaga's untimely death. Onaga's deputy, Kiichiro Jahana temporarily assumed his post for three days until being replaced as interim governor by Moritake Tomikawa. This was the first gubernatorial election in Okinawa since the voting age was lowered to 18.

The relocation of the US air base in Ginowan to Nago was a major issue in the race.^[4] The campaign period ran from 13 September until election day.^{[2] [5]}

The election was won by Denny Tamaki.^[6] Tamaki, like Onaga, wants a fundamental reduction of the U.S. presence in Okinawa.^{[7] [8]}

Candidates

Running

• Atsushi Sakima, mayor of Ginowan (2012–2018).^[9] (endorsed by LDP, Komeito, Nippon Ishin no Kai and Kibo)
• Denny Tamaki, member of the House of Representatives for the Okinawa 3rd district (2009–2018).^{[10] [11]} (supported by CDP, DPFP, JCP, LP, SDP and OSMP)
• Hatsumi Toguchi, former member of the Naha City Assembly.
• Shun Kaneshima, former IT company employee.

Speculative

• Takeshi Onaga, incumbent Governor, died in August 2018.^[12]

Declined

• Morimasa Goya, local businessman and Onaga ally.^[10]

Campaign

Similar to the previous gubernatorial election, the issue of the relocation of the US air base in Ginowan to Nago dominated the campaign. The two main candidates were on opposing camps on the issue with Tamaki opposing any relocation within the prefecture and Sakima supporting the relocation. Tamaki made the relocation issue the main plank of his campaign.^[13] On the other hand, Sakima downplayed the relocation issue and instead focused on the local economy in his pitch. Voters that cited the base relocation as their most important issue mostly supported Tamaki, while those more concerned with the economy supported Sakima.^[14]

Results

The exit poll on election night indicated a large victory for Tamaki and the NHK called the election for Tamaki early during the count. He gained 396,632 votes, the most votes ever obtained by a candidate in an Okinawa-wide election.^[15]

Breakdown

Division	Subdivision
		Sakima Independent		Tamaki Independent		Toguchi Independent		Kaneshima Independent		Valid votes		Invalid votes		Turnout^[16]
		Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Total	%
Cities	Naha	65,524	40.91	bgcolor=orange	92,264	bgcolor=orange	57.83	869	0.54	1,152	0.72	160,169	99.24	1,219	0.76	161,388	65.86
	Ginowan	bgcolor=pink	26,644	bgcolor=pink	53.99	22,379	45.35	142	0.29	185	0.37	49,350	99.44	279	0.56	49,629	64.03
	Ishigaki	bgcolor=pink	11,648	bgcolor=pink	50.89	11,015	48.12	97	0.42	129	0.56	22,889	99.12	204	0.88	23,093	55.25
	Urasoe	25,319	44.80	bgcolor=orange	30,622	bgcolor=orange	54.18	264	0.47	312	0.55	56,517	99.34	376	0.66	56,893	65.60
	Nago	15,013	46.86	bgcolor=orange	16,796	bgcolor=orange	52.43	136	0.42	93	0.29	32,038	99.58	135	0.42	32,173	68.30
	Itoman	12,550	43.88	bgcolor=orange	15,708	bgcolor=orange	54.92	197	0.69	148	0.52	28,603	99.31	199	0.69	28,802	63.45
	Okinawa	27,321	42.78	bgcolor=orange	35,947	bgcolor=orange	56.28	239	0.37	363	0.57	63,870	99.43	367	0.57	64,237	60.31
	Tomigusuku	13,039	42.46	bgcolor=orange	17,442	bgcolor=orange	56.79	121	0.39	110	0.36	30,712	99.24	236	0.76	30,948	62.94
	Uruma	26,407	42.54	bgcolor=orange	35,011	bgcolor=orange	56.39	352	0.57	312	0.50	62,082	98.98	642	1.02	62,724	60.36
	Miyakojima	bgcolor=pink	13,314	bgcolor=pink	54.50	10,961	44.87	83	0.34	72	0.29	24,430	99.37	154	0.63	24,584	59.49
	Nanjō	9,773	43.11	bgcolor=orange	12,642	bgcolor=orange	55.77	147	0.65	106	0.47	22,668	99.37	143	0.63	22,811	67.09
	Cities total	246,552	44.56	bgcolor=orange	301,147	bgcolor=orange	54.42	2,647	0.48	2,982	0.54	553,328	99.29	3,954	0.71	557,282	63.53
Towns and villages	Kunigami District	15,069	44.66	bgcolor=orange	18,354	bgcolor=orange	54.40	181	0.54	136	0.40	33,740	99.45	187	0.55	33,927	66.02
	Kunigami	bgcolor=pink	1,555	bgcolor=pink	58.07	1,101	41.11	11	0.41	11	0.41	2,678	99.59	11	0.41	2,689	66.73
	Ōgimi	600	34.31	bgcolor=orange	1,141	bgcolor=orange	65.24	3	0.17	5	0.29	1,749	99.71	5	0.29	1,754	66.34
	Higashi	bgcolor=pink	589	bgcolor=pink	52.68	516	46.15	11	0.98	2	0.18	1,118	99.38	7	0.62	1,125	76.97
	Nakijin	1,817	35.43	bgcolor=orange	3,261	bgcolor=orange	63.59	31	0.60	19	0.37	5,128	99.34	34	0.66	5,162	67.37
	Motobu	3,095	45.70	bgcolor=orange	3,621	bgcolor=orange	53.46	34	0.50	23	0.34	6,773	99.40	41	0.60	6,814	63.94
	Onna	2,275	44.55	bgcolor=orange	2,771	bgcolor=orange	54.26	38	0.74	23	0.45	5,107	99.45	28	0.55	5,135	63.36
	Ginoza	1,389	44.15	bgcolor=orange	1,716	bgcolor=orange	54.55	21	0.67	20	0.64	3,146	99.24	24	0.76	3,170	72.94
	Kin	2,635	48.51	bgcolor=orange	2,755	bgcolor=orange	50.72	18	0.33	24	0.44	5,432	99.45	30	0.55	5,462	64.58
	Ie	1,114	42.70	bgcolor=orange	1,472	bgcolor=orange	56.42	14	0.54	9	0.34	2,609	99.73	7	0.27	2,616	65.11
	Nakagami District	30,632	39.85	bgcolor=orange	45,597	bgcolor=orange	59.32	355	0.46	279	0.36	76,863	99.39	470	0.61	77,333	65.37
	Yomitan	7,658	39.17	bgcolor=orange	11,715	bgcolor=orange	59.92	111	0.57	66	0.34	19,550	99.41	117	0.59	19,667	64.14
	Kadena	3,231	47.24	bgcolor=orange	3,534	bgcolor=orange	51.67	47	0.69	27	0.39	6,839	99.33	46	0.67	6,885	65.58
	Chatan	5,280	40.38	bgcolor=orange	7,694	bgcolor=orange	58.85	51	0.39	50	0.39	13,075	99.38	82	0.62	13,157	62.38
	Kitanakagusuku	3,169	36.94	bgcolor=orange	5,344	bgcolor=orange	62.30	32	0.37	33	0.38	8,578	99.54	40	0.46	8,618	66.41
	Nakagusuku	4,393	41.82	bgcolor=orange	6,045	bgcolor=orange	57.54	37	0.35	30	0.79	10,505	99.26	78	0.74	20,583	65.57
	Nishihara	6,901	37.68	bgcolor=orange	11,265	bgcolor=orange	61.50	77	0.42	73	0.40	18,316	99.42	107	0.58	18,423	68.48
	Shimajiri District	22,037	42.15	bgcolor=orange	29,763	bgcolor=orange	56.93	258	0.49	225	0.43	52,283	99.31	361	0.69	52,644	67.04
	Yonabaru	4,177	42.63	bgcolor=orange	5,524	bgcolor=orange	56.38	47	0.48	50	0.51	9,798	99.38	61	0.62	9,859	68.04
	Haebaru	7,435	38.63	bgcolor=orange	11,669	bgcolor=orange	60.63	75	0.39	67	0.35	19,246	99.42	113	0.58	19,359	66.78
	Tokashiki	bgcolor=pink	207	bgcolor=pink	51.75	193	48.25	0	0.00	0	0.00	400	97.80	9	2.20	409	75.84
	Zamami	261	44.54	bgcolor=orange	319	bgcolor=orange	54.44	5	0.85	1	0.17	586	99.49	3	0.51	589	81.17
	Aguni	bgcolor=pink	189	bgcolor=pink	52.21	169	46.69	4	1.10	0	0.00	362	99.45	2	0.55	364	63.51
	Tonaki	bgcolor=pink	125	bgcolor=pink	53.88	106	45.69	0	0.00	1	0.43	232	98.72	3	1.28	235	74.79
	Minamidaitō	bgcolor=pink	513	bgcolor=pink	68.31	231	30.76	5	0.67	2	0.27	751	99.60	3	0.40	754	77.08
	Kitadaitō	bgcolor=pink	299	bgcolor=pink	78.89	77	20.32	3	0.79	0	0.00	379	98.44	6	1.56	385	85.32
	Iheya	bgcolor=pink	380	bgcolor=pink	57.40	275	41.54	2	0.30	5	0.76	662	98.51	10	1.49	672	73.79
	Izena	bgcolor=pink	437	bgcolor=pink	59.05	291	39.32	9	1.22	3	0.41	740	97.88	16	2.12	756	69.76
	Kumejima	1,544	40.28	bgcolor=orange	2,233	bgcolor=orange	58.26	42	1.10	14	0.37	3,833	99.33	26	0.67	3,859	64.90
	Yaese	6,470	42.30	bgcolor=orange	8,676	bgcolor=orange	56.73	66	0.43	82	0.54	15,294	99.29	109	0.71	15,403	65.37
	Miyako District	bgcolor=pink	421	bgcolor=pink	68.68	191	31.16	1	0.16	0	0.00	613	99.51	3	0.49	616	73.89
	Tarama	bgcolor=pink	421	bgcolor=pink	68.68	191	31.16	1	0.16	0	0.00	613	99.51	3	0.49	616	73.89
	Yaeyama District	bgcolor=pink	1,747	bgcolor=pink	51.64	1,580	46.70	40	1.18	16	0.47	3,383	98.00	69	2.00	3,452	72.64
	Taketomi	1,148	48.58	bgcolor=orange	1,178	bgcolor=orange	49.85	25	1.06	12	0.51	2,363	97.40	63	2.60	2,426	71.70
	Yonaguni	bgcolor=pink	599	bgcolor=pink	58.73	402	39.41	15	1.47	4	0.39	1,020	99.42	6	0.58	1,026	75.23
	Towns and villages total	69,906	41.89	bgcolor=orange	95,485	bgcolor=orange	57.22	835	0.50	656	0.39	166,882	99.35	1,090	0.65	167,972	66.18
Total		316,458	43.94	396,632	55.07	3,482	0.48	3,638	0.51	720,210	99.30	5,044	0.70	725,254	63.24
Source: Results

Notes and References

1. News: 【知事選投票率速報】最終午後１１時２５分、６３・２４％ . . 30 September 2018 . 1 October 2018.
2. News: With U.S. Futenma base issue on the line, vote to replace late Okinawa Gov. Takeshi Onaga set for Sept. 30. Kyodo News. Kyodo News. Asahi Shimbun. 13 August 2018. 13 August 2018.
3. News: Okinawa Governor Onaga, who led anti-U.S. base move, dies. Associated Press. Asahi Shimbun. 9 August 2018. 12 August 2018.
4. News: New building work begins at site for U.S. base in Okinawa. Ryuichi. Yamashita. Asahi Shimbun. 7 November 2017. 24 January 2018.
5. Web site: http://www.pref.okinawa.lg.jp/site/senkan_i/event/tijisen/h30kenntijisen.html. ja:平成30年執行沖縄県知事選挙及び沖縄県議会議員補欠選挙. 沖縄県. 4 October 2018. Japanese.
6. News: Denny Tamaki, critic of US bases on Okinawa, wins election. ABC News. 2018-09-30. en. https://web.archive.org/web/20180930021502/https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/japan-election-weighs-controversy-us-bases-okinawa-58178139. 2018-09-30. dead.
7. News: Opponent of U.S. military bases wins Okinawa gubernatorial election. Simon. Denyer. The Washington Post. 30 September 2018. 4 October 2018.
8. News: Onaga successor wins Okinawa gubernatorial election. Ryuichi. Yamashita. Asahi Shimbun. 30 September 2018. 4 October 2018.
9. News: LDP turns to pro-Abe mayor for Okinawa governor's race. Ryuichi. Yamashita. Asahi Shimbun. 3 July 2018. 7 July 2018.
10. News: Onaga's chosen 'successor' mulls governor race run in Okinawa. Kazuyuki. Ito. Ryuichi. Yamashita. Asahi Shimbun. 20 August 2018. 23 August 2018.
11. News: Denny Tamaki takes plunge into Okinawa governor's race. Asahi Shimbun. 29 August 2018. 31 August 2018.
12. News: Nago mayoral candidates start campaigning for Japanese election tied to base relocation plan, gubernatorial race. Kyodo News. Kyodo News. Japan Times. 29 January 2018. 29 January 2018.
13. News: Campaign starts in Okinawa, centered on U.S. base relocation. Asahi Shimbun. 13 September 2018. 4 October 2018.
14. News: Asahi poll: Tight contest seen in Okinawa governor race. Asahi Shimbun. 24 September 2018. 4 October 2018.
15. News: Tamaki's big win in Okinawa deals 'too harsh a blow' for Abe. Asahi Shimbun. 1 October 2018. 4 October 2018.
16. Web site: http://www.pref.okinawa.lg.jp/site/senkan_i/event/tijisen/documents/tijisenntouhyoulast.pdf. ja:知事選投票確定. 沖縄県. 8 October 2018. Japanese.